EPTNode seems to be heading the modkill way since he has made no posts. Zona also seems to heading the same way with only two posts till now. Is anyone in contact with Zona? I am getting a feeling that he did not read the OP and the 5 post requirement.
BC's Arkham Asylum - Page 45
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Node seems to be heading the modkill way since he has made no posts. Zona also seems to heading the same way with only two posts till now. Is anyone in contact with Zona? I am getting a feeling that he did not read the OP and the 5 post requirement. | ||
|
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
| ||
|
Curu
Canada2817 Posts
On July 20 2011 06:37 Kavdragon wrote: So that we can be clear, you guys are saying "Day one lynch is the hardest to get right, so use the free pass now, not later when we will have an easier time lynching him" No, I'm saying lynching VE is bad because of how easy it is to lynch him. Scum doesn't really lose anything from lynching him, Town obviously wants to lynch him, we get no behavior analysis from the voting patterns. Vig shooting him is good though. Vig shooting day 1 is when it's weakest since you have the highest chance of hitting Town instead of scum. Well this way you have a Vig shot that can kill a 99% confirmed scum. Who knows, maybe all the Vigs are compulsive (we're all raving lunatics in here aren't we?) and we're saving them from having to random shoot a Townie. Town lynches are more valuable than Vig shots, especially on day 1. Lynches and pressure give more information in the form of voting patterns and defense analysis. | ||
|
Zona
40426 Posts
On July 20 2011 04:30 ketomai wrote: Look how much has happened in day 1, day 2 will bring just as many if not more information, diluting the day 1 info. ... Time is on the mafia's side. I'm surprised nobody's called this out - worrying that more information will bring about "dilution" and the idea that time benefits mafia. You even bolded the idea that time worked against town!! In almost every case (there's always rare particular instances and game setups which prove to be the exception), time benefits town. There's longer patterns to analyze, there's more voting records to examine, there's more statements and arguments that can be dissected, and in this game, there's more clues available as well. The way town affects the pace of the game is by how freely the vigilantes shoot. I've already advocated my position on this before (be conservative in the early game, except to carry out policy lynches), but suppose that vigilantes shot freely every night, and among their shots, a number of townies are killed. This could bring us to lylo earlier, and into a situation where we have less information. I'm very leery that you advocated this idea. (In this particular game, time also benefits Ra'as and Batman, giving them more information and chances to hit their respective targets. Mafia and Joker are the two parties that don't benefit from time.) | ||
|
Curu
Canada2817 Posts
On July 18 2011 11:41 Curu wrote: Likewise, if someone is declared a policy lynch or something of that nature, it is far better to have our Vigilantes shoot them instead. The lynch process gives us no information when reds can easily bandwagon lynch someone. Remember that the lynch is a process for finding information and connections as well, not just a simple kill. I posted this on day 1 and people seemed to agree/no one had a problem with it. So why are we suddenly thinking our Vigs are too herpderp dumb to carry out these routine kills? | ||
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Besides that, I'm still trying to help town. Notice how none of the other lynch candidates...oh wait...there's only one....and he also doesn't think I'm the best lynch. Perhaps that's just a coincidence. Perhaps not. I hope you guys are voting with your head and not just voting for the easy lynch. | ||
|
Curu
Canada2817 Posts
| ||
|
supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On July 20 2011 03:14 Mr. Wiggles wrote: LOL, I'm so good I don't even need to scum hunt: Basically, I wanted to fish for information a bit, and wanted to try to figure out whether to reveal this now, or at night and let vigs deal with it. Decided to reveal now, to avoid vig overlap tonight. He also wasn't giving me any more information. Lynch ends in 7 hours, kill this guy. Shoot redFF, maybe Palmar, tonight. ##Vote: VisceraEyes lol, i didn't saw this spoiler!!! You guys can't imagine how puzzled i was. okay now I understand the discussion. the discussion when we should hang is obviously irrelevant for me, because i will hang instead if the guys who vote me don't appear until nights end. therefor, and because i am not convinced that redFF 100% scum: ##unvote: redFF ##vote: VisceraEyes | ||
|
Zona
40426 Posts
On July 20 2011 04:26 VisceraEyes wrote: Then town is screwed obviously. Of course that's assuming I wasn't trying to trap him myself. We'll see who's confirmed and who's not soon. The fact that Wiggles outed this conversation confirms him as town imo and solidifies my read on RoL. I'll still be voting for him today. The wording is really awkward. If you really were trying to trap him (the only townie "excuse" for claiming traitor) why not just say that straight up? As to the discussion on a sure-lynch target not providing information from voting patterns: That is a downside to it. But the objective of the game is to get rid of scum, and information is a path to finding scum. If you find scum, lynch. We start the quest for more information on the next day, with one scum down. VisceraEyes: You should consider now posting everything from your private conversations that you think might benefit town if you are lynched. | ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
| ||
|
ketomai
United States2789 Posts
On July 20 2011 06:46 Zona wrote: I'm surprised nobody's called this out - worrying that more information will bring about "dilution" and the idea that time benefits mafia. You even bolded the idea that time worked against town!! In almost every case (there's always rare particular instances and game setups which prove to be the exception), time benefits town. There's longer patterns to analyze, there's more voting records to examine, there's more statements and arguments that can be dissected, and in this game, there's more clues available as well. The way town affects the pace of the game is by how freely the vigilantes shoot. I've already advocated my position on this before (be conservative in the early game, except to carry out policy lynches), but suppose that vigilantes shot freely every night, and among their shots, a number of townies are killed. This could bring us to lylo earlier, and into a situation where we have less information. I'm very leery that you advocated this idea. (In this particular game, time also benefits Ra'as and Batman, giving them more information and chances to hit their respective targets. Mafia and Joker are the two parties that don't benefit from time.) Why would giving up 3 night kills, potentially 2 black kills, and potential misfire vigi kills for free benefit the town in anyway? Are you asserting that letting up pressure on mafia would help town? It doesn't. The faster we figure things out and gather information from lynches the faster we can get rid of mafia. Letting them have a free day is extremely counterproductive because what happens after that free day? We are left with less people than before, there's opportunities to confuse the town for another day, and absolutely no progress is immediately made. If you have strong deductions, now is the time to act.2 | ||
|
CjrNinja
Australia223 Posts
Vote visceraeyes I still want people to realize that ve 'lied' in his first post on day one... Then later lied to town less than 12 hours into day one. The only reason im unvoting you is literally because ve claimed black/red. Will post more thoughts after i get back from work ~6 hours or so.. | ||
|
CjrNinja
Australia223 Posts
| ||
Mig
United States4714 Posts
The only thing I worry about is the lack of information we will gain from it. Along with kavdragon raising a good point we have no shot at lowering the mafia kp by killing VE. Still though probably best to just kill a confirmed scum. ##unvote redff ##vote VE Normally I encourage vigs to hold off on their shots this early in the game but there are a lot of very very good targets right now for them. So if vigs shoot tonight shoot between redff/nisani/pyo. I really hope someone kills redff. | ||
|
Zona
40426 Posts
First of all, I think the worry that vigilante kills will overlap are the LEAST among town's worries. Bigger worries include: - vigilantes shooting the wrong target and bringing town more quickly towards its demise - vigilantes outing themselves and getting killed before they can really be game-changing in the late game In games with different setups, forming a "town circle" with confirmed townies coordinating power roles and even voting can be very strong, but in this game, with 4 godfathers and a non-fixed role list, I doubt this kind of play will be useful. The only sort of reveal I would even possibly consider beneficial is if a DT found a scum but couldn't build a public case against him or her, to possibly reveal to those who the DT have checked as town. But there's still a big risk with the godfathers and must be combined by the DT's own behavioral analysis on the people the DT wants to reveal to, and in any case is only to be used as a last resort. | ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
From: CreamyButter [ 48 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: halp Date: 7/20/11 04:00 Hi, im an insane inmate. Not sure how to prove it. Is there any way for you to figure out who mafia is and then tell them my name? Not sure how you would accomplish this, just PM scummy people? Idk, I mean they know you're red though so that should help. Hopefully I've PMed you before any fake claims to you. I'll be asleep for the next several hours, should wake up around 9:30 KST. Kthx This feels more like a fake-claim aimed to confirm my claim to Wiggles than an actual scum-claim. | ||
|
Curu
Canada2817 Posts
wat That's not forged is it? | ||
|
VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
No one else is claiming red to me, so that's about all I have that actually HELPS town. I can post my back and forth between Mig and Curu though...but that's all about reads and speculation...nothing really concrete. | ||
|
Curu
Canada2817 Posts
| ||
|
syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
| ||
| ||
