TL Mafia XL - Page 48

supersoft

Germany3729 Posts

June 09 2011 08:21 GMT

#941

On June 09 2011 17:09 Xedat wrote:
My vote stays on amazingxkcd.
I read through 80% of it and what is strange to me is that he calls everyone that is under slight suspicion scum, additionally he says pyo and jackal are scum. But then, not a word on iGrok? Really? Why analyze the posting of most players but leave the most discussed about with nothing at all.
Also, Drazerk and Jimboo, I am not forgetting about you. Say something or the streets around you will be painted crimson.

our vigi can shoot amazing. we have to get rid of the GF and amazing is not the gf.

Pyo

United States738 Posts

June 09 2011 08:29 GMT

#942

On June 09 2011 17:21 supersoft wrote:

Show nested quote +

our vigi can shoot amazing. we have to get rid of the GF and amazing is not the gf.

I really don't like that people are advocating the use of the vigi powers. Whoever the vigi is should just judge for themselves whether they should use it and whom to use it on. Listening to someone else is inherently dangerous and subject to being manipulated.

Basically, Vigi's use it when you feel it is appropriate and everyone else, stop advocating their use.

Xedat

Germany358 Posts

June 09 2011 08:30 GMT

#943

Yes this situation is actually interesting. I think both iGrok and amazingxkcd are nearly evenly suspicious. The vigi can shoot the guy that is not lynched today. The question is who's lynch would give us more information. I agree that more people have defended iGrok and that if he switched red it would give us more information.
Me saying "my vote stays on amazingxkcd" also meant more that he did not convince me to change my vote and not that I won't vote for someone else.

So what I am asking is, lynching whom would give us more information?

supersoft

Germany3729 Posts

June 09 2011 08:38 GMT

#944

yes and i am convinced that i gorks lynch and turn-out to be mafia would give us a ton of informations + Dt checks would be accurate since i think if hes scum hes also GF.

amazing not so much... except for his XXL post, there was nothing viable before he was accused to be scum...

Pyo

United States738 Posts

June 09 2011 08:39 GMT

#945

On June 09 2011 17:00 35spike1 wrote:
^Basically, more evidence of iGrok not killing GGQ to save himself.

No one is really using this as an argument for iGrok's guilt. Stop bringing it up and arguing against it. If you think he is guilty (as I do), it's a bad argument and not a needed argument, and hence isn't really being used. If you think he is innocent, bringing up non-existent and/or bad arguments to fight against is really suspicious and more importantly for you isn't going to convince anyone of his innocence.

monsterDrakar

Bulgaria100 Posts

June 09 2011 08:40 GMT

#946

So much text, just sooo much.... I'm having a hard time just reading through it all and I really feel like there are lot of empty words. I will vote later today probably for iGrok, just based on the various posts accusing him and the arguments in them. I am just waiting to see if he will say anything else, although he seems to have made a "ragequit" post. Right now I am in lurker mode and I don't feel the need to farm posts, when I don't have anything new to contribute. Seriously just look at the number of post repeating what another one has already said.

CjrNinja

Australia223 Posts

June 09 2011 08:44 GMT

#947

On June 09 2011 16:58 35spike1 wrote:

Show nested quote +

I can't tell if this is sarcasm?

GGQ's last post
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 08 2011 13:03 GGQ wrote:
GGQ's big post of epicness in case he dies tonight (which I've just realised I dont have enough time to make as long as I want

Trust me that it's smart and good:

No one undertook the exercise I set of looking at who defended and attacked lafali and why. I'm very disappointed, guys. You all get 0/2 on your homework for today. The veteran players are all going to be dead before this game is nearly over, and you guys need to practice working on how to actually find scum, not just accuse people based on neutral tells. Keep your heads up, don't get discouraged. Look at contradictions in talk and behavior. Look at people who are skating by with posts that just repeat previous content. These are the scummy players.

The point was to lead you to Kurumi and iGrok above everyone else. Kurumi attacks lafali for his bandwagon vote bringing nothing new to the table on freeloader. There was absolutely no reason for him to throw scum on lafali so early in the game if he's mafia. Plus his aggressiveness and balls-out attitude are more inline with a green than anything else. Kurumi is most likely town.

iGrok defends lafali as probably newb town. He's the only one who defends lafali straight out, but Vain, aprudds, monsterDrakar, and Senj also soft-defend him. I'm not saying they are all scum, but it's a great place to look for scum (dts take note! vigis save your shots). At this point in time I think iGrok is almost certainly the godfather of the mafia team (it could be jackal as well but his behavior doesn't fit the role as well, and seems more in line with the town play I've seen from him). iGrok defends lafali after Kurumi calls him out and votes for him, while before this accusation he posted that everyone who had voted so far ( which included lafali) should be under suspicion. Contradiction. iGrok has also been working to get into a town-leadership and thread-presence position all game, something the godfather always tries to do. iGrok also got way too defensive after being attacked and accused.

Other suspicious people to me: Vain, partly for defending lafali, partly for advocating the lynch on freeloader for 'information' blehhhhh I already posted about that, and partly because iGrok listed him as a skilled vet with him, me and jackal when I think he's quite new and I havent seen anything particularly good from him. iGrok probably wanted another mafia on that list, though.

Of course jimbooo whom I voted Day 1, for reasons already stated by multiple players.

Others are monsterDrakar and Senj. xkcd has decreased on my scum meter lately but isn't totally clear.

Meapak's post about killing GGQ
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 08 2011 13:04 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
GGQ was out walking around thinking about the failed lynch. He’d been around the block a few times and was trying to get his thoughts in order for the next day. Suddenly he heard a noise in the bushes, two black figures slipped out. GGQ immediately knew what came next, he’d seen the results many times before. “So this is how it ends?” He asked. His only response was the sinister click of hammers being pulled back. “Well” sighed GGQ laconically, “I’m glad I was thought dangerous enough to kill so early.” Two silenced bullets were his only reply.

Across town DeMorcerf was drinking at his favorite bar, it had been a long day and he was trying to drown out the thoughts of the failed lynch. Looking at the clock DeMorcerf realized it was getting late and decided to start back home. He got about four blocks from the bar when a black SUV with tinted windows drove up next to him. DeMorcerf sensed trouble and tried to throw himself into a culvert but he wasn’t quick enough. A quick burst of automatic fire sounded and DeMorcerf was left lying in a pool of his own blood.

GGQ the Townie has been killed
DeMorcerf the Townie has been killed

It is now day 2! You have 48 hours to vote on a lynch

The timestamps are indeed a minute apart.
To give this context for anyone who missed it,

Show nested quote +

What are you talking about? I only said that to clarify when GGQ made the post that contained the last two quotes I added. The first quote in my post makes it clear that GGQ did have suspicions about iGrok earlier? Or have I completely misunderstood what you were trying to say? T.T

Aril

United States11 Posts

June 09 2011 08:46 GMT

#948

Heya... I attempted to, instead of going off memory, I tried to go through each post and do some serious data mining because, "Yay science" four hours into it I estimated the time to finish would be ten more hours.. LoL I'm stupid trying to do this by hand. xD

Is it against to have a script run through the thread and fill out data sheets for me?

Also even though it's worthless here's what I spent a few hours doing, it gets halfway through Day 1.. LoL

Data Format:
+ Show Spoiler +

//Types of actions

Initiative:
[Mention <USER>], // Mentioning a player but not indicating the possibility that they are scum
[Accuse <USER>] // Not nessiarily saying a person is guilty, but if they mention the possibility that someone is scum it counts as ACCUSE
[Data-Dump] // Posts data on game state

Responsive:
[AgreeWith <USER>] // This may be misleading, this means indicating a post is in some way correct
[DisagreeWith <USER>] // This indicates that someone has indicated a post as somehow incorrect
[ChangeOpinion <USER>],
[Vote <USER>],
[Change Vote <USER>],
[DefendSelf] // Respond to attacks with self defense
[WillBeInactive],
[Defend] <USER>,

Ineffectual:
[ActionlessPost], // Saying nothing of import
[Apology], // Indicating a previous action was "wrong"/regret
[StateQuestionPost], // Asking about the state of the game
[RulesQuestionPost], // Asking about Game Rules

Data:
+ Show Spoiler +

I put together a few algorithms that will give me a probability of each person being mafia from this data by looking for justification through collusion, separating players into factions etc.. xD xD xD

>.>: No I am not too into this game... >.>;

Finally yay for getting mafia killed because only a stupid confirmed townie would post this...

Aril

United States11 Posts

June 09 2011 08:48 GMT

#949

EBWOP:

Is it against the rules to have a script run through the thread and fill out data sheets for me?

AnxiousHippo

Australia1451 Posts

June 09 2011 08:55 GMT

#950

On June 09 2011 17:44 CjrNinja wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 09 2011 16:58 35spike1 wrote:

On June 09 2011 14:42 CjrNinja wrote:
Also, The two quotes that arn't timestamped are obviously from the 'last minute' posts of GGQ, my bad.

I can't tell if this is sarcasm?

GGQ's last post
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 08 2011 13:03 GGQ wrote:
GGQ's big post of epicness in case he dies tonight (which I've just realised I dont have enough time to make as long as I want

Meapak's post about killing GGQ
+ Show Spoiler +

The timestamps are indeed a minute apart.
To give this context for anyone who missed it,

On June 09 2011 13:22 Treadmill wrote:

Something else: GGQ didn't post ANY suspicions of iGrok until literally 1 minute before the night post. So the notion that GGQ was killed to protect iGrok from his accusations is bogus.

Sorry, i misunderstood it.

Xedat

Germany358 Posts

June 09 2011 09:01 GMT

#951

Alright, I will change my vote from amazingxkcd to iGrok because iGrok has been more discussed and it would give us more information.

TranceStorm

1616 Posts

June 09 2011 12:31 GMT

#952

On June 09 2011 13:10 amazingxkcd wrote:
Sorry Guys, I will finish your analysis tomorrow, been working on this for the last 8 hours.
[*]Kairo
+ Show Spoiler +

[*] omgCRAZY
+ Show Spoiler +

[*] gtrsrs
+ Show Spoiler +

[*] iGrok
+ Show Spoiler +

[*] tdAdonis
+ Show Spoiler +

[*] aprudds
+ Show Spoiler +

Finals Thoughts
I have listed my reasoning for most of the players, but because of the time involved in doing I will finish the last few people, though they know who they are.
I am 100% confident that my analysis is spot on and 100% confident that people who read this will agree with me. Only you mafia scum have anything to fear from reading.
Because of this report, I have decided my vote and I will do a TL:DR version of this report as well soon

##:Jackal58

[/list][/SPOILER]

Did you post up your thoughts for these people yet amazingxkcd? I would really like to hear your thoughts on iGrok considering that he is the other person of extreme suspicion at the moment.

TranceStorm

1616 Posts

June 09 2011 12:44 GMT

#953

On June 08 2011 21:42 iGrok wrote:
Haven't read it yet, but I'm going to go ahead and nominate Treadmill for the "Best Rookie (no pun intended) Award".

Hats off to you, doing analysis like a boss, standing up for what you think, and making really good reads on people (like the aforementioned Rookie).

Funny, this is the only time that iGrok ever engages the analysis being done on amazingxkcd. Considering that he spent quite a large period of time answering arguments against himself and implies in this post that he will read Treadmill's analysis, I feel that iGrok is unwilling to reveal his stance at all on the amazingxkcd issue. I want to specifically hear from iGrok whether amazingxkcd is scum or not on the basis of the evidence brought up by Treadmill and other posters.

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 09 2011 16:28 GMT

#954

Honestly, I don't understand why people are reading Treadmills and XCD's posts. While its important to hear their defense, they aren't defending themselves, but DISTRACTING you. - haven't read 48 yet.

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 09 2011 16:59 GMT

#955

On June 09 2011 16:47 35spike1 wrote:
I am SICK of these massive walls of text, so called 'analysises'. I know iGrok began the trend, but this is not a competition to see who can out perform eachother, we are here to hunt scum. xkcd, your post was 170521 characters long. I checked. To any new player, these massive walls of text would be a great way to discourage them from playing more games. Well guess what, all of us here are newbies.
Try to remember, quality ≠ quantity. Look at Jackal, his post was very short, very concise, and swayed the whole town to kill Rookie.
With just 2 posts, this and this, he managed to sway the whole town in just two hours.

Today, the main two points have been against xkcd and iGrok. Although there is much evidence against both, iGrok has been much more constructive with his posts, whereas xkcd hasn't contributed much of anything. Much of his “analysis” was just lead up to bagging out Jackal. You don't need 30,000 words to explain that you think Jackal is GF. So for xkcd's lack of general helpfulness, the reasons that have already been stated numerous times, and giving me a headache, you get my vote ( Vote: amazingxkcd ).

If these large posts deter newer members (this is my first forum mafia) then thats exactly what we should do. Do you think other Veteran Mafia threads are going to post LESS? This is probably a fraction of the posts they will see.

As for the attack on Jackal by XKCD this only cements my feeling that Jackal is a townie. The lynching on Rookie was unfortunate, but that's what happens.

The reasoning behind this, is that I feel XKCD, iGrok, and Treadmill are all scum.

Kurumi

Poland6130 Posts

June 09 2011 17:18 GMT

#956

Xkdcd,thanks for such good post - since You've never stated anything about players, that's precious that You have done so. I'd really want to see the rest of Your opinions - gtrsrs and aprudds are the most interesting for me, though couple of words about iGrok would help a lot since we're discussing his lynch in Your place. That's odd that my "Townie" result is because I can defend myself and most of non-scum people are agreeing with me, it makes me happy though, because it is correct!
I hope You're going to discuss even more, I want my opinion of You being Townie to stay a long while, perhaps for the entire game.
iGrok I hope You'll jump in to the discussion,as for now Your surrender screams scum seeking last stand.

Alderan

United States463 Posts

June 09 2011 17:20 GMT

#957

Here is kind of a new line of thinking let's see what everyone thinks.

I have a feeling that it is safe to assume that either iGork or Jackal is scum (based on xkcd's huge analysis above I'm going to go with iGork).

I think we keep the vote on xkcd for the simple fact that the case against Jackal is much stronger than some people give it credit for. Let's give Jackal/iGork one more day to slip up. Whats the downside? Sure if either is maf they are probably GF, but it's not like they have inherent kp, and framing is not going to be the biggest deal because no one is going to claim after night 2 (or shouldn't).

Moral of the story: Keep votes on xkcd and don't over look Jackal while tunneling iGork . Let's wait for one of them to make a mistake.

teamsolid

Canada3668 Posts

June 09 2011 17:23 GMT

#958

On June 10 2011 01:28 Sprungjeezy wrote:
Honestly, I don't understand why people are reading Treadmills and XCD's posts. While its important to hear their defense, they aren't defending themselves, but DISTRACTING you. - haven't read 48 yet.

What would be an appropriate defense in your eyes? I'm curious.

I've been reading http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=147475 for some insight into reading scum tells. Basically what Ver shows us is that the most important theme among mafia posts is looking like they're contributing, but not actually say anything. Basically, a lot of empty words without performing any real analysis, not suggesting any targets and not coming to any conclusions.

KXCD's post was actually the exact opposite of that. He actually analyzed players pretty deeply and used plenty of reasoning in his posts if you read it carefully. I haven't read all of it yet, but what I have read so far has made sense to me at least when I was reading it, and he gave strong conclusions about whether people were town or mafia. It's basically as Pro-Town as you can possibly get.

Mafia on the other hand do NOT want you to have any solid leads or come to any real conclusions, especially not about nearly every single person in this game. Furthermore, he's about to get lynched and he knows it. If he really WAS mafia, all those hours he spent writing it would be worthless since no one would believe anything coming from someone who flipped red. There is basically absolutely no reason why a mafia would make a post like that.

While KXCD was very suspicious before for his bandwagonning and his lack of defense, I'm beginning to think that we've made a mistake. iGrok could still very well be GF but arguments against him also seem a bit inconclusive. I'm going to look into the Jackal case for GF myself to see if it makes sense to me.

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 09 2011 17:44 GMT

#959

On June 10 2011 02:23 teamsolid wrote:

Show nested quote +

I've been reading http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=147475 for some insight into reading scum tells. Basically what Ver shows us is that the most important theme among mafia posts is looking like they're contributing, but not actually say anything. Basically, a lot of empty words without performing any real analysis, not suggesting any targets and not coming to any conclusions.

KXCD's post was actually the exact opposite of that. He actually analyzed players pretty deeply and used plenty of reasoning in his posts if you read it carefully. I haven't read all of it yet, but what I have read so far has made sense to me at least when I was reading it, and he gave strong conclusions about whether people were town or mafia. It's basically as Pro-Town as you can possibly get.

That bolded part is very important in my case against iGrok, and would like everyone to read it and then my analysis on iGrok.

As for XCD's analysis, I take it with less than a grain of salt as he has a lot of votes himself and would probably say anything to get people to not vote for him, yet instead of defending himself he throws blame other places.

I feel it is important to stay focused on iGrok and not be distracted. I agree that we shouldn't stop discussion, but right now the votes are pretty split between iGrok and XCD and I am really pushing to get iGrok lynched today and XCD (or Jackal or Treadmill) tomorrow, but I feel it is most vital for iGrok tonight and right now posts from both Treadmill and XCD have been to get our attention shifted from iGrok while iGrok ceases to post in an attempt to "play dead so the bear walks away".

TranceStorm

1616 Posts

June 09 2011 17:45 GMT

#960

On June 10 2011 02:20 Alderan wrote:
Here is kind of a new line of thinking let's see what everyone thinks.

I have a feeling that it is safe to assume that either iGork or Jackal is scum (based on xkcd's huge analysis above I'm going to go with iGork).

I think we keep the vote on xkcd for the simple fact that the case against Jackal is much stronger than some people give it credit for. Let's give Jackal/iGork one more day to slip up. Whats the downside? Sure if either is maf they are probably GF, but it's not like they have inherent kp, and framing is not going to be the biggest deal because no one is going to claim after night 2 (or shouldn't).

Moral of the story: Keep votes on xkcd and don't over look Jackal while tunneling iGork . Let's wait for one of them to make a mistake.

Hey Alderan, since you are here right now (I hope), would you mind some of the accusations I made of you here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500&currentpage=40#785 ?

I am particularly curious as to your 180 degree switch from opposing the rookie lynch to supporting it. Vain also performed a similar switch-around but I am prepared to cut you a bit more slack considering your recent activity and your accusations of xkcd (compared to Vain's lack thereof).

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