EPTTL Mafia XL - Page 2
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iGrok
United States5142 Posts
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iGrok
United States5142 Posts
On June 06 2011 13:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Or he simply cannot extract himself from the excitement that is MLG, I know I couldn't for most of this weekend. I think that the reasoning that has come forth from some of the experienced players should convince us to leave freeloader for now and concentrate on others --- I agree with Alderan's suspicions of Amazingxkcd (posts that just repeat the description of the game) and Grush57 (confusing contradictions) and the strange hasty back and forth behavior of Jimboo pointed out by TranceStorm. I quote this to point of that redFF's only post in the game is just this one-liner spam. Perhaps he is too busy in his other mafia game to contribute something more useful to his post, but then he should have waited until he had more time to post. Red isn't playing. | ||
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iGrok
United States5142 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/fWwZu.jpg) Its time for some analysis. For Science. This post will be long. And split into two parts. The first part will be setup analysis. The second part will be a post-by-post analysis of Kurumi. There will be no tl;dr. Welcome to Mafia ^^. Let's begin. Setup: 40 players. 1/5 are scum. Scum have 4 kp N1, and D1 is rarely a scum lynch (sad but true). However, there are medics and vets, so assume D2: 36 players - 28 Town 8 scum, or .222 scum. Now we're getting somewhere. Because of the scum %, which is slightly high for a large game (large games tend to help scum get lost in the noise), and based on Town traditionally having more PRs anyways, I guarantee tht Town has a greater number of PRs. Probably 150-250%. I'll analyze Scum roles first so we can get a rough estimate of the number of blue roles. 8 Scum. 1 GF. There are definitely not more than 50% PRs on the red team. That would be absurd for a newbie-friendly game. Therefore, 2-3 RBs. 3 RBs is a little high, so I'll guesstimate 2. This leave us with 3 PRs on scum. Blue Roles Detective: In this game, Detectives (Also known as Cops and DTs) check Role in addition to alignment. This makes DT a VERY powerful role. However, there is probably more than 1 - having only one makes the game to easy to be swung with a lucky snipe. Therefore, I'd guess there are 2 DTs. Medics and Vets: Lately, theres been a tendency to display both but only give out one or the other of these roles. In this case, however, I will assume both. Likely 2 Medics (for the same reason as 2 DTs - if one gets sniped thats just bad luck) and 1 Vet. Veterans kind of get their own kind of weighting when it comes to balancing teams. You know it will be useful if town is losing, but it does nothing active to help them. Veterans help to stabilize the game and make it less swing-y, which is exactly what you want for a newbie game. Lastly, Vigilantes. Knowing Meapak, theres at least one, probably 2 Vigilantes. Vigilantes can be the town saviors. Particularly in a game like this, the faster we can whittle down Mafia KP the better off we'll be. Vigis should take note of who presses for and opposes a lynch, and when we see the results, act accordingly - probably NOT before N2 though. Note that I do not count vets toward Power Role balance because they are so weak. Also Vigis only count for 75% of a PR because they can do more harm than good. Role cops, on the other hand, count for 150% of a PR. Yes, they are that strong. Black Roles Traditionally, Black roles are 3rd party, but since there aren't any sks, I'm counting Miller as a black role. Miller is the bane of any cop. Every check you make that comes back Goon is less usefull. You can't confirm that he's anti town (though feel free to pressure them and see if they crack!). Millers count as -50% of a PR to Town. I would be VERY surprised if there were more than 1 Miller in this game, and certainly not more than two. So, in summary: 5 Goons, 2 RBs, 1 GF = 3 PRs 2 DTs, 2 Medics, 1 Vet, 2 Vigis = 6.5 PRs 1 Miller = -.5 PRs Total of 6:3 - Perfect - 200% Is that guaranteed to be accurate? No. But its probably pretty close. Now on to Analysis! Today's subject is Kurumi. The black does not mean I think he's a miller, it means I don't know yet. So, post by post: On June 05 2011 18:03 Kurumi wrote: Freeloader tries to justify SC2 Mafia as real Mafia experience,I'd go with noobtown,yeah. Now lets sniff for potential bandwagoners... Manages to insult Freeloader and defend him at the same time. His next move, searching for bandwagonners, is a good idea, although its really not too hard to search through the 6 post long vote thread :p. Nothing to really note here except attitude. On June 05 2011 18:07 Kurumi wrote: What? Bad lynches are good lynches? Are You a stupid Rat or You're a Noobtown? Lynch is the most IMPORTANT tool town gets. ##vote Treadmill This is either a misread or a mislead. I immediately noted 2 things here: the ridiculously aggressive attitude was one. Treadmill is saying here that we need to use every bit of evidence, and that at the moment we had very little but it was enough to start. I might not have completely agreed with Treadmill, but I didn't think he was scum because of it. Kurumi is apparently convinced enough by this post that Treadmill is scum to vote - after he's yelled at others for voting based on little to no evidence. On June 05 2011 18:11 Kurumi wrote: My God,so many Rats running between my legs! No,we can't lynch the guy because of one thing. We should be suspicious WHY the bandwagon formed so FAST on such shitty evidence. It is not mylo,but we must use lynch to it's best. Literally this is what happened: Lafali says "aprudds has a point, but it could mean nothing. Fortunately, its not the end of the world if we fuck up." Kurumi continues his hyper-aggression. Lafali's post meant nothing - he may as well have not posted. Based on this, Kurumi accuses Lafali of being scum.+ Show Spoiler + Granted, it was a useless post - a scummy thing to do with good player meta, but as a newbie Lafali probably felt (s)he should contribute something. On June 05 2011 18:16 Kurumi wrote: Yeah,two SHORT posts about his SC2 mafia experience,fishy as heck."I hopped on voting bandwagon" What? Only Scum bandwagons. "I'm sure we can afford a few mislynches" WHAT THE FUCK? No,we can't afford mislynch for the sake of mislynching. Someone gives red vibes? WE LYNCH HIM. Someone made dumb question once,while Scummy Rats like You run around and we should lynch him? I will drop Treadmill for now,because You're infinitely more scummy than him. This should be pretty self-explanatory. + Show Spoiler [In case its not,] + More hyper-aggression On June 05 2011 18:23 Kurumi wrote: Because I draw discussion from terrible freeloader bandwagon? I don't throw accusations out,they've slipped already. Treadmill and Lafali both advocate mislynches and not thinking before lynching. They hopped on bandwagon and they will. This is actually a very interesting post. As you can see, Kurumi is mis-representing both Lafali and Treadmill. Neither of them "advocate mis-lynches", they simply stated that a mislynch was ok, and even probable. Neither of them are anti-town, and Treadmill is actually playing pro-town. On June 05 2011 18:31 Kurumi wrote: No. Scum wants Town to mislynch. Scum wants Town not to think about other suspects. Scum wants to make Town jump on one bandwagon and deny EVERY discussion about anything else. They are doing that,not only but they're advocating that as a good thing. This is a very true post. That is precisely what scum wants. Its important to note that scum also wants to cause as much chaos in the town as possible as well. On June 05 2011 18:33 Kurumi wrote: Scum will unvote after someone called it out to remain 'unsuspicious". Also why the heck Town would lynch person generating discussion and bringing scummy suspects? Scum would like to lynch me,but they can just kill me at night. Just read it. The one super-pro-town thing he's done all game! Catching silent voters is SUPER important, particularly in a large game like this. On June 05 2011 21:40 Kurumi wrote: @Pyo (Pyo voted for Kurumi and pointed out that Kurumi got lynched D1 last game) Because Your arguments are dumb I am going to ignore You. A tip: In mafia XXXIX I was spreading chaos in the Town,also I was really scummy. I wasn't talkative,I was spammy. If You want any meta reads,go check PYPI and PTP. Pyo calls him out, Kurumi admits to spreading chaos in the town the game before. [green]Pyo asks Kurumi for a list of "experienced players" On June 05 2011 22:45 Kurumi wrote: Jackal58 - he is very good GGQ - I think he is there for at least short while Me Impervious from replacements played a bit there too gtrsrs played one game I think. You're not going to participating in lynching the most scummy player Pyo? While I understand place holder votes You need to know that people like me will remember that. I want to see a good post after You're back. Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself. On June 05 2011 23:20 Kurumi wrote: By the most scummy player I meant Your suspicion. An example of good post would be an analysis pointing out the biggest slips of player X leading Town in a Scum lynch.Remember though: there's nothing wrong about being wrong(unless You're redtooth,then You commit suicide on Day 3) A good post could be summing up who attacked who and who defended who + Your thoughts about it. Everything that generates discussion is good. You must remember though,that without good evidence there's probably no point in bringing something new,because this will cause chaos. Pyo,it is too fast for scum to bus too. Freeloader's situation is really uncertain. His small,but bandwagon is based on shitty evidence. "He asked a question,no townie would ask it!" Think for a second. What would happen if Freeloader was scum? Someone would pm him and tell him everything he needed to know,makes sense? Hell yes. We aren't that vindictive,don't worry <3 But there are players who are magnets,namely Radfield and Kavdragon,who like to die Day/Night 1. Kurumi hasn't been here that long, but he's clearly read up on his mafia. He knows the names of some older players. He is correct in that all discussion is good discussion, but (IMO)there are certain methods of generating it that do no good to town because they cause too much chaos. Still, point in his favor though. On June 05 2011 23:53 Kurumi wrote: Bussing is when You vote for lynch/kill Your Mafia buddy to make Yourself less suspicious/earn town cred,mostly happens when there's no way to save him/perform some gambit or wicked trickery. Well,it is rather safe to assume that anyone who got assigned as Godfather is going to help his newbie Mafia bros as fast as possible - he is probably one of the "better" players,but this might be a mislead. Also as far I remember in my PYPI pm I had mafia list and that I can PM them etc. etc.,while it wasn't a "noob game" I strongly believe that there everything a new player should know about his role/alignment. Not much to say about this. Slightly pro-town I guess? Kinda obvious stuff, but I'm giving people a pass on obvious stuff this game because its a newbie game and so not everything IS obvious. On June 06 2011 00:07 Kurumi wrote: My dumbness meter went over 9000. Before saying "HURR DURR YOU DID NOTHING" read my posts. I brought evidence why I think they're scum. aprudds (the originator of the whole "Freeloader Debacle") gives a nice, concise analysis of whats gone on in the game, and (in the @Pyo section), explains what his reasoning was for the first accusation. + Show Spoiler [Mini aprudds read] + IMO, it seems that aprudds and Kurumi actually have similar philosophies, its just that aprudds doesn't piss off as many people along the way. On June 06 2011 00:18 Kurumi wrote: I played in XXXIX then PYPI then PTP now there. This is Kurumi's prior experience. Note that in one of these games he was lynched D1. Vain steps in to defend Treadmill and aprudds. On June 06 2011 00:27 Kurumi wrote: @Vain Let aprudds defend himself. On June 06 2011 00:30 Kurumi wrote: EDWOP: I meant,let him play by himself,he does not need Your help. The evidence is simple: They support bad lynches,they say that we can waste lynches,they want Town to make quick decision which they didn't think about enough We've been over this - No they don't. On June 06 2011 03:41 Kurumi wrote: Sorry but Palmar and RedFF are better at tunneling everyone than me >:C Tunnelling is still bad -_-. However, I don't think Kurumi is tunnelling this game. He's just accusing everyone who disagrees with him of being scum. On June 06 2011 03:52 Kurumi wrote: Hey guys voting on freeloader bandwagon,are You willing to post? (Drazerk,grush57) Continuing to prod Silent Voters. Pro-town. Really unexpected. On June 06 2011 04:05 Kurumi wrote: Treadmill is suspicious to You? You both are doing the same thing. Also thanks for excuse,I enjoy eating them. Because they're yummy. Why would DT report on Day 2? It is an easy target for Mafia,even when med protected they can just stack on him. Why are You spreading bad ideas? Kurumi points out that DTs shouldn't report on D2 since mafia can stack kills. This is an excellent point - DTs should wait until they have something useful to report before revealing themselves. I don't understand the first half of this post, so I'm ignoring it lol. On June 06 2011 05:37 Kurumi wrote: This post can be treated like it never happened,You know? What are Your thoughts on freeloader bandwagon? Who's Your scum suspect #1? Asking questions, its been a bit since he last posted an opinion of his own (aside from other people are "Rats"). Nothing really here.+ Show Spoiler [Tiny supersoft read here] + Admitting to lurking and doing nothing but saying 'hey look I'm not lurking' is terrible.  On June 06 2011 05:54 Kurumi wrote: We can't no lynch. There needs to be a lynch every Day. True. And thats the last post he made. It may be time related. That was ~10 hours ago, possibly sleeping. So, what can we take from all this? Kurumi is a very aggressive player known for causing chaos. He has cast suspicion on many people, mostly those who argued with him. He has also thrown in some genuinely Pro-town things into his posting. Its very difficult to make a final call, but... I believe that Kurumi is Scum. In my opinion, his Pro-town points were thrown in at random or very obvious to remove suspicion from him. However, I must take into account that I may have been biased, as well as his pro-town things. Because of this, I do not advocate a Kurumi Lynch D1. Instead, I think that Kurumi should be our prime DT target. Knowledge of his alignment will undoubtedly help us determine who is scum and who is town. GGQ, Jackal, Vain, I'd particularly appreciate it if you would weigh in here. To new players, this is a complete, thorough analysis of a player. You don't have to do things like this. But you'll be a much better player if you do, even if you don't post it (there are times not to, like if you realize someone is a DT or Medic). Go forth and analyze! | ||
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iGrok
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for the record, fishing for blues is scummy[quote] Is this in response to anything? [quote]you're still my prime FoS, iGrok, no matter how long your post is[/QUOTE] With how quickly you jumped on me based on nothing, I'd expect nothing less. Perhaps though, you should read the post instead of remarking at its length. And then perhaps you should run an analysis of me. In fact, I'd like to see you do a post-by-post analysis of me. Will you do that? You might be surprised at what you find. For example, in Experiment Mafia II, I ran a post-by-post analysis of the player "Blue1", who I believed to be quite scummy and who was under a lot of suspicion at the time. However, upon going through it, I was forced to conclude that he was actually Town. Town won on Day 3. | ||
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On June 06 2011 16:04 gtrsrs wrote: here is my scum hunt you post haiku's in a game where posting anything more than necessary is distracting and derailing you try to find the town's blues so that the mafia can know what they're up against the one thing that the town has as an advantage is that the mafia doesn't know our PRs and here you are spelling the info out for them even if you're not mafia, your two biggest contributions so far are anti-town everyone i encourage you to ##vote: iGrok and watch how he (and others) react as the votes pile up. putting the pressure on someone is a good way to find mafia. watch the people that come to defend him and how they do so and then when he flips red, go after them next Okay, this is not an analysis. Everyone please note how bad this is. But as a refutation, I posted haikus because I wanted to, and every single one had a purpose. I did not try to find out the town's blues. I tried to guess the setup. This helps town out just as much as it helps scum out, if not more so. If you disagree, I want to know why, in explicit detail. Mafia doesn't know who is what PR, or even how many - they can only guess, same as me. Same point as above. If you count both of those as my only two contributions, I'll be able to simply ignore you as a terrile player. The analysis of Kurumi, and holding town together from fracturing immediately should also be in there. As well as explaining several concepts for the newer players. On June 06 2011 16:11 gtrsrs wrote: in fact i think kurumi is doing the right thing. we have nothing to go on on day 1. there are a lot of inexperienced players. lots of times if a new player is mafia and you insinuate that they're mafia they get really defensive. even if they know that you're accusing everyone, new players can slip up when you get around to accusing them. so i think kurumi is just trying to shake out some baddie mafias. I went through your post history - when exactly have you played before? I know you're big in the LoL subforum, but all I could find regarding mafia was as a replacement in SNMM3 and a late /in for Newbie Mini Mafia I. Just curious because you're acting like you have some knowledge of how newbies play vs how experienced people play. | ||
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On June 06 2011 16:20 CjrNinja wrote: @ iGrok I disagree with your player analysis. I think Kumuri is taking a very pro-town initiative by putting a lot of pressure on inexperienced players. It's a good opportunity to gauge reactions and hopefully pick up on a scum slip if the accused can't handle the pressure ^^ Also, the less attention towards blue roles, the better... last thing town needs is an inexperienced playing letting slip his blue role on day1. Disagreement is fine! I'm a huge fan of actual discussion about things - but someone had to start the analysis, and the little quotes we were getting before are much more annoying to deal with. As I said, I'm not completely certain on Kurumi, but if I had to choose I'd say scum. Thats why I asked for a DT check. Regarding my 'focus on blue roles', which I take you and gtr to mean my Setup Analysis, what I love most about Mafia is the mechanics, and so I'm going to try to work those out as best I can. Since neither mafia nor town knew (or knows now) how many of each role there are, I haven't really done anything. However, with rough, probable numbers, we can work out the best way to assign our blue powers. Blues are (arguably) the most important part of a mafia game - we should try to line up some good actions instead of just hoping for the best. | ||
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On June 06 2011 16:44 gtrsrs wrote: note, town, how now that i am FoSing iGrok more publicly, he's attempting to discredit me as he starts to panic. even though he LITERALLY just told you to not let kurumi sheep you and use experience as a reason to put him in a position of power, he's now going to attempt to do the exact same thing. classic sheeping attempt here, he points out that i'm not a well-known figure on the mafia sub-forum. good play is good play, you don't have to be an experienced player to pick up on a scumtell. but iGrok is going to call me a bad player and pretend to ignore me. notice how he will now try to shift the attention of the town elsewhere - probably by using a 9000-character post again on an "analysis" of someone else don't fall for his passive-aggressive tricks, town Nice OMGUS, bro. You have a habit of responding only to one thing in a post. You should probably change that, not just for this game but for all of them. Anyways, the last thing I'm going to say regarding this (unless you keep up the smear campaign [or answer my points]) is that I said Kurumi is trying to use experience he doesn't have to get into power by associating himself with those who do. Personally, I think Jackal58, GGQ, or Vain would be great people to look up to and have confidence in - they're all pretty experienced and -good- players. Whomever among them we can confirm/be reasonably certain is town should be looked up to. And just FTR, it wasn't 9,000 characters. It was 26,088 characters. Lets see you put that kind of effort into a post, eh? | ||
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If the three of them are on the same team I'll never play in a Meapak game again. | ||
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The reason is because those are by far the three strongest players in this game, and it simply wouldn't be fair. Hosts are supposed to randomize teams, but they have some responsibility to ensure a fair and balanced game. | ||
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On June 06 2011 18:06 Pyo wrote: After reading the posts up to now, I am reasonably confident that freeloader is probably a townie and the ambiguity of early accusers and their motivations means that there's not much to be learned from lynching him, although it might be inevitable at this point. Since his post in his defense haven't really been all that constructive anyway it isn't really a big loss, so I'm not gonna fight it. The players that I find annoying are by far Haiku boy and Kurumi. So if ever I'm undecided about who to vote for it'll probably be one of them. I think it is interesting to note all the little 1v1 bickering going on, the most recent example of which is between iGrok and gtrsrs. I think it is reasonable to assume that two mafia wouldn't orchestrate a mini feud this early on, which means that either both are town or only one is town. So combining my last 2 paragraphs, I think I'm gonna have to change my vote to iGrok. Please note that its a triangle, not 1v1. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/8e2nZ.png) (The black line is I'm not accusing him of being scum). Sorry for the bad drawing ^^ + Show Spoiler + And don't call me Haiku boy again. Just curious, why do you find me annoying? Aside from the haikus, which I stopped when I realized some people don't appreciate having a little fun. | ||
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On June 06 2011 19:20 Pyo wrote: Well haiku girl, In no particular order: 1. Your haikus 2. Your heroic let me break down the game for you all post, which is clearly an attempt to make it seem like you know what you're doing, yet you still did #1, revealing that you're just a self-important douche (note that gtrsrs interprets this as you being scum) 3. Your passive-aggressiveness ("don't call me Haiku boy again") 4. Your not-so-passive aggressiveness (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500¤tpage=10#187) 5. You like to think that you are a pro chastising others for not reading the thread (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500¤tpage=12#232), but haven't even read the rules yourself (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500¤tpage=10#196) 6. Red hurts my eyes (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500¤tpage=18#342) 7. "For science" - Athene is a douche, and so are you for quoting him (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500¤tpage=19#365) 8. Your triangle picture. 9. And then there's your whole exchange with gtrsrs, which needs no real explanation I suppose that there might be a little overlap in that list. I don't really know whether you're scum or not, but as I said in a previous post I'm picking one of a random bickering between two players (you and gtrsrs) and he's a lot less grating and - for now at least - appears more emotionally stable (less likely to give a tell after prodding). I'll leave it everyone else to judge your response to a more pressure/attention on you. 1. Lol. + Show Spoiler + Excuse me for wanting to have a little fun. Get over it. 2. Which post? The huge analysis post? The first real, in-depth analysis anyone has done this game? 3. That wasn't passive aggressive. + Show Spoiler + Don't copy gtrsrs's terms if you don't know how to use them. But if you'd prefer less passive, fine. Quit nit-picking and calling names like a little bitch and start doing some serious thinking. 4. Justified. + Show Spoiler + Town could have fractured really early this game, and someone needed to lay down a hard stance to keep us together. 5. Silent Voters are very bad. And yeah, I was drunk and posted in blue not green. Problem? 6. Suck it up. + Show Spoiler + That was not a game related post. That was a FORUM related post, and needed to be made -very- clear. As multiple mods and vets backed me up on. 7. Oh no, I played Portal today. + Show Spoiler + Again, this is flavor I (and many other people in other games do too - I'm happy to provide examples) to make the game more fun. You know, since its a game. That we play for enjoyment. 8. MSPaint FTW! 9. Which part of that do you disprove of the most? And finally, use the "Links" button when posting. Copy&Pasting is annoying. | ||
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On June 06 2011 21:31 supersoft wrote: guys this is getting really complicated with these XXL posts :D i'll draw a mindmap of all this when i am at home. when does the night beginn? (typing this from my iphone) I assume in 16.5 more hours, just basing it off the D1 post. And yeah I don't really sleep xD | ||
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On June 06 2011 22:40 Jackal58 wrote: I couldn't analyze Kurumi to save my life. We need a psychiatrist for that. He is playing identically to the other two games I have had the pleasure of being in with him. His posts do at times contain substance but it's very hard to pick out from all the background noise. I think our best bet with him is to watch his voting history. He will eventually call all of us scum before this game is over so his FoS posts are pretty much useless. Lol. Perhaps I should've done someone else then. Ah well, never played with him before so I didn't know. Moving forward! For Aiur! | ||
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On June 06 2011 22:52 amazingxkcd wrote: As his post concerning kurumi 's behavior had helped, i am concerned with this statement. iGrok has listed a couple of seasoned players whom he reconizes for their experiences, but here he is already jumping to the conclusion that he had no reason to suspect them, especially jackal whom only made a post spectulating. It seems to be that iGrok is quite convinced that kurumi is a scum as he already asked for a dt check rather than trust the dts to make the right decisions. About jackal, i do not know much about him as he has not stated a lot yet, but iGrok is showing us that he is in league with jackal as from the podt above. As of now, i do not want to label iGrok as scum, and i'd rather wait until later to see what jackal says and how the game flows, but iGrok is still suspicious. If iGrok is convicted as scum, then that puts pressure on jackal to respond. If I was convinced Kurumi was scum, I'd be pushing for his lynch - hard. Do I know that Jackal is town? No. I know he's good. Therefore I want a lot of action from him, for two reasons: If Jackal is Town, a lot of action from him means a lot of pro-town things happen. If he is scum, a lot of action occurs that I can make a read from. | ||
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On June 07 2011 00:12 Benjef wrote: Why would a smurf have two 1500+ post accounts? He just asked you a question based on your reply to me. Some of those people may just plain be inactive due to have being at the MLG event? You edited. The cardinal sin. I'm willing to back up that the bolded part above is the only change since he first posted though. | ||
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