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Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia II - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 21 2011 01:19 GMT
#464
@VisEyes

My effiort for a hiro lynch seems to not be going anywhere. Deepblu2 is the other person I trust, and he voted for purplehaze, but between the two, I'm inclined to think Mataza's destructive behavior regarding the blue roles smells more of scum, than purplehaze's randomness.

One thing I'm almost certain of, is that they're not both mafia. I have strong cases against both wunder and hiro protagonist, and I think one of those two must definitely be scum.

Which one do you think is more likely to be scum? I want to say Mataza, but hiro voted for him which is something I find very suspicious, and is a reason for me to stay awake until the lynching so I can help counter any last-minute switches.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 21 2011 01:37 GMT
#466
Interesting stefftastiq, because my exact problem with mataza has been the effort he put in power roles that may or may not exist, instead of hunting mafia. To the point he created a plan that might have pulled short-sighted inexperienced players into doing really stupid things that would hurt the town.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 21 2011 01:41 GMT
#468
@stefftastiq

I have two reasons to believe DeepBlu2 is town-side.

First, I accused him in day 1. He did not overreact to the accusation but instead calmly collected his thoughts and analysed the potential scum.

Second, his analysis in the first day was correct. He was the first person to actually cast a vote against GiygaS, and he did not change it from there.

His entire play seems consistent and town oriented, if a little inactive. If DeepBlu2 is mafia, he is at least playing a very well covered game.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 21 2011 01:44 GMT
#471
@stefftastiq

One of the best scum-tells is that scum tend to overreact to accusation. Obviously the scum knows this, so they will try to stay calm when accused, but you can often pick up little signs of panic in even well constructed responses.

One more thing DeepBlu2 did well, when he mistakenly said that hiro had explained himself, and I corrected him, he just accepted the correction and moved on. Mataza however seems intent on not getting corrected.

Unwillingness to change your opinion is bad for the town.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 21 2011 01:49 GMT
#473
On May 21 2011 10:44 stefftastiq wrote:
of those three mataza are the one i least believe is mafia - so it would be no problem saving his lynch for later giving him more time to prove he is not.


This is a very good point, I've been trying to spread the word, but to no avail. I'm glad someone understands it.

Finding inactive mafia is always more important than finding active mafia, because it's so much easier to analyse someone that has 100 posts, than someone that has 3 posts.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 21 2011 01:54 GMT
#476
@prplhz

Well that's one of my big problems with the Mataza lynch. He's either bad townie or mafia. If he's bad townie you can't read too much into the votes casted against him, because while I haven't voted for him myself, I fully understand anyone that makes the decision to vote for him.

So yeah, I'm worried that this lynch will not give us enough information.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 21 2011 14:42 GMT
#496
Mataza's death was unfortunate, and I think unexpected. By both the town and the mafia. I doubt the killing of Karshe has much to do with setting up Mataza, because Mataza never would've been lynched without his blatantly crazy idea for exposing blue roles.

The mafia would never have been able to guess he'd set himself up so nicely. I have much more interest in the people who switched their votes to Mataza after he painted that target on his ass. The problem is that there's also townies who simply voted him because he was doing bad stuff for the town... which is not a bad idea!

I would advise everyone to step up their activity in the thread. There are several people in the game that have yet to be analysed, and I think it's healthy for the town to get discussion going on every possible scum candidate. Another thing we should do is have a look back at is Mataza's posts. They may not be correct, but remember that he is now a confirmed townie, so we know everything he said was said with honest intentions.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 22 2011 08:39 GMT
#512
Good morning town! Interesting that you find it "Fantastic" DeepBlu2 is dead Wunder.

You were never in any danger of dying VisEyes. As long as you keep up the crusade to get me lynched you're providing a great distraction.

Just to quickly summarize. Your current argument against me is that I did not switch my vote day 1. But I wonder, where should I have switched my vote to? If I went for skrammen, I would be ensuring (remember, that at this point prplhz hadn't switched his vote) the death of an inactive, which I've told you countless times is not my goal.

The other option was to go after someone who was really loud. At the time I didn't know he was a mafia. Here's the post where I explained to Mataza my reasoning for not switching to GiygaS. I honestly believed back then that everyone in the game would eventually step up and provide content.


On May 18 2011 02:23 Palmar wrote:
I want to keep him because I'm not afraid of him.

What I'm afraid of is going into day two with very little or no information about half the players in the game. How on earth are you going to analyse who is mafia amongst the people that have hardly said anything so far in the game?

Any information is better than no information. This is why I don't want to just let everyone bandwagon you in the first place, and then Gyig now. I want one of the people that aren't contributing against the wall.

Show nested quote +
On May 18 2011 02:01 Mataza wrote:
Common sense: Active mafia will try to disrupt town conversation. Bad town might do that as well. Both are bad for town.


This is very much true. But I'd rather have to filter through tons of bad information injected by mafia, than having no information at all and just playing a guessing game. Actually, here's a promise for you, if everyone comes into the thread, contributes and makes good analysis of the situation, I will switch my vote to GiygaS and help you get him lynched.


In hindsight, I of course wish I had listened to Mataza, because then I probably would be busy hunting scum rather than explaining why I am not one.

Anyway, I'm much more interested in breaking down Mataza's lynch and DeepBlu2's death.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 22 2011 12:15 GMT
#515
nard, you don't have to start from scratch... I think.

You are the one that did the original analysis on DeepBlu2. Your conclusion may have been wrong, but your effort is still valid.

Re-do your analysis, adding in everything DeepBlu2 said from the point you accused him until the point where he got killed, and look at it all from the point of view we now know that DeepBlu2 was innocent.

As for myself, I will be working on an analysis on prplhz. While I can't be certain he's guilty at the moment, when I go back and re-read the thread, knowing Mataza and DeepBlu2 had honest intentions and both accused prplhz, I feel there is desperate need to re-visit his entire posting history.

Perhaps he's just unlucky, perhaps he got set up. But perhaps his lack of accusation towards myself has blinded me to his true intentions.

It seems like a very dangerous thing to do... accusing prplhz. Mataza and DeepBlu2 paid with their lives.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 23 2011 10:23 GMT
#528
This one's for you Mataza and DeepBlu2

I'm sorry, but this will be very, very long. I suggest you read everything in here.

Prplhz - Well played sir, but the jig is up.

------------------------------------------------

Analysis of prplhz:

As prplhz has created a significant number of post, I will only include those I consider relevant to my analysis.

So, after quickly stating he was new, and asking some technical questions. This is the first post he voices a solid opinion.

On May 17 2011 00:35 prplhz wrote:
I kinda have to agree with Mataza, lets stop the blaming until everybody has posted once or twice. People should instead maybe just say how they're going to try to play out this first day. According to Mataza's math we need to kill a scum in the first 3 days which is a lot of time to get to know each other and I will probably be voting for those I am most unsure of, which will be those with least real content in their posts.

But really, I don't think that people should blame anybody too much after the first 10 posts 'cause there's no real basis for it.


Most of this post is just fluff. He seems to want to go for inactives at this point. He is really careful in his wording, telling us to not blame anyone. This may be a newbie mistake, but I think most of us are aware that the best way to get people to slip is to put pressure on them.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 17 2011 09:26 prplhz wrote:
Sup guys

Right now I am mainly suspecting Mataza, mainly because of something that Mataza said early on:

Show nested quote +
On May 16 2011 12:52 Mataza wrote:
I think I overestimated my town


Now this statement could very well be benign but it is doing two things: degrading the town to diminish people's confidence in their ability to play this game (overestimate) making them more susceptible to get influenced by someone (himself) and setting himself up as a "leader" of the town (my town). I do not know why Mataza is trying to set himself up as a leader of the town but there are two scenarios:

1. He's a scum: He wants to control people and mislead them to vote for innocent people and keep the mafia save.

2. He's a townie: He wants to control people and lead to to vote for guilty scum and keep the town save.

Either way he is trying to be a "leader" of the town and this in itself is bad. A town should never have a leader and should instead have people thinking very independently forming their own opinion, this should happen through discussion and activity of course. Mataza is very savvy and probably knows that having a leader is not good for a town, so why is he trying to set himself up to be one? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.

Now stuff that might talk against this:

First: Mataza is actually not pointing fingers at anybody, I think we should be very careful if he ever decides to "lead" "his town" to vote for someone. Second (as pointed out by Mataza himself): If he is trying to lead this town as a scum would lead it we would quickly find out (we would lynch innocent people). And since we can afford losing people, trading a townie (guy Mataza would want to lynch) for a scum (Mataza) is really a good deal for the town. Maybe he is setting himself and the mafia up for mid/late game? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.

Other than that I think that all the debate around Mataza is hurting the town (we are not talking about someone else). So to stop this I am going to talk about someone else:

VisceraEyes and GiygaS

It is very hard for me to argue against VisceraEyes and GiygaS because I am also suspicious of Mataza.

This is very hard because, while these two guys have been on Mataza's back the whole time they claim that it has been for the sake of activity. This has worked alright since these three guys are arguably the most contributing players in this game right now so their claimed plans have worked out well. But why are they not directing any of this activity against each other? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.

This gets even harder to analyze because there are two of them and thus several scenarios: Two townies being suspicious of someone? Two scums targetting an innocent townie? Or maybe the hardest scenario to deal with, one of each. I'm not going to go in depth with these scenarios, I will only present my initial conclusion: If they are scum they are not thinking long term, if they are mixed they will turn on each other, if they are townies ... Well as I said, I am also suspicious of Mataza

A final note on nard (something that Mataza cleverly pointed out too, removing some of my suspicions of him):

Show nested quote +
On May 17 2011 02:25 nard wrote:
i can imagine there are still some people thinking about what they could include in their first post which is not completely trivial - took me a while as well :p


While this might be a whole new game for everybody it should not be hard for an innocent townie to write a simple "hello" post. Maybe nard is having a hard time writing his first post because he is a scum with a hidden agenda and then he is thinking that everybody else is having a hard time too? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.


So, this is a post where he accuses Mataza. It is quite interesting that he's jumping a bandwagon after VisEyes with GiygaS, based on some very frail reasoning. He also points a finger at nard, and thus agrees with me. He talks about how having leaders is dangerous for the town.

At this point Mataza looks like the weakest person on the board, but we now know his weakness was because he wasn't afraid to stick his neck out.

A few posts later hiro protagonist gives prplhz a pat on the back, and GiygaS claims he isn't suspicious at all. Since those three are my best guess for a mafia line-up at the moment, this looks suspicious to me. But obviously to anyone that doesn't agree with my Hiro read, it will look less suspicious.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 17 2011 21:48 prplhz wrote:
Yo people

I see that people have started voting now, around 16 hours before deadline. This is not good people. Unvoting is very suspucious and there is still plenty of time for people to provide material to analyze. Of course some claim to do it for the sake of discussion but I still think that this is very bad. In addition to this I do not think that any of these votes are currently well founded, they are wild accusations at best.

I also think that it is bad that people have removed focus from Mataza. While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. He is very active and has agreed to answer every question directed at him. These are very useful qualities for town to find in a player, no matter if he is scum or townie. We should have tried to use these qualities to hunt scum.

I would love to have waited with this post until GiygaS next post but lets just go ahead and do some analysis.

I do not think that Mataza is harmful for this town just yet. He is under control so far, I would like him to be more harmful for the Mafia though. So I ask this:

@Mataza : With the information available to you now, who would you lynch if you should lynch the player you think is most likely to be Scum?

So I'm going to go ahead and do something that VisceraEyes has done several time. Point fingers at some random person for the sake of discussion. And this random person is going to be VisceraEyes himself. Some reasons (so it's not entirely random who I am pointing fingers at) for this:

1. He was the first person who point fingers at others. While he might have done this for the sake of discussion, I think that mostly scum would do this early on in the game. Townies would consider how the other person might be a townie and how unfounded accusations might harm the town, even if you made it clear that they are unfounded.

2. He is often analyzing his own actions. This is something I think you would (should) mainly do when you are scum. There is nothing to fear as a townie, only thing you have to consider is how the town can benefit the most from your actions. While we would all like to survive this game I think this is done best by being honest and only analytical of the actions of potential scum.

3. He has just something I would deem crazy to do if you were a townie. He suddenly said "this guy I have been bashing all game long, maybe he's not scum so I'm just gonna vote for someone and provide very limited rationale for this". This is not only very scum-like in my eyes, it is also harmful to the town.

@VisceraEyes : Do you think that it is beneficial for the town that you suddenly make a 180 in letting Mataza off the hook and go full force against stefftastiq?

Another player who has struck me as harmful to the town is Palmar. He has recently used some very questionable rhetorics to defend Mataza, and while it might be good that Mataza is not lynched, questionable rhetorics are always harmful to town. But on the other hand he also appears to be a very strong player who the town can make good use of later on, so maybe it is just a question of getting him under control

@Palmar : Why do you think Mataza is "innocent as a newborn baby"? Gutfeeling is not an acceptable answer

Think that was it for now. I will try to vote around 4 hours before deadline. Finals notes on what I think all townies should currently be aware of:

Lurking townies make it possible for scum to play lurker style too. I think everybody should get up and post some analysis, if you are a townie this is absolutely the best thing you can do. We still missing a couple of you but this is making the game very much harder for town!

I would consider any of the prospective modkills (Skrammen, Wunder) showing up in the nick of time to cast crucial votes for the lynching VERY suspicious. Even if they decide to show up now I think they will be very harmful to town if they don't post a lot in a very short amount of time.

It is very good to have people under control; the more they post the more we can ask questions and the more we can make ourselves sure that someone is scum/townie. We will probably have two modkills but maybe it will be beneficial to town to lynch one of the least active players, to set an example, to make the game more fun, to maybe hit a lurking scum!

Oh yeah and GiygaS; my nick is "purple haze" without any vowels or spaces


This is his infamous "control" post. He suddenly tries to do a 180 from Mataza to VisEyes. Others have already analysed this post to death, so I will not spend too much time on it. It suggests some questionable methods like keeping the town in check, which really is a bad idea because you need all the creativity you can get to spot the scum.

And here's the problem. Prplhz already agreed with me on that it should be easy to make first posts, and here he calls me a strong player. This continues through-out the game, blinding me to his true intentions.


+ Show Spoiler +
On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote:
Maybe we cracked down too much on people trying to create drama 'cause I have to agree with Karshe that there is too little discussion going on.

So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night!

So let me say that I've cracked down a bit on the active people, but in the end I think I am going to vote for an inactive player because the evil you don't know is far more scary than the evil you do know! This will most likely only be for day1 though and I'm sure the scums already know that. So if they eliminate me it will be because they might be afraid that I will try to rally people to kill off someone who I think is a scum, and who is active.

People who fit this description according to my posts so far are VisceraEyes and GiygaS, I said that if they turned on each other they would most likely be one scum, one good guy. So if I happen to get mafia killed on first night I think these are people you should really watch out for, but probably only one of them is scum!

So what about you people, if you had to write a testament to the town today, what would it say?

And by the way, I am going to write a vote post in around an hour, so it will be up before two hours.

((OOC: Oh and Palmar, no hard feelings about the "idiot" thing ))



This is his first post that is really incriminating. I did not suspect prplhz at the point so I wanted to harshly call him out for his nurse call, which was... well... either really stupid or a scumtell. I stupidly ignored a very strong VisEyes analysis on prplhz at this point, because I felt it was too frail. Now I realize prplhz was already playing me on flattery.

link to VisEyes's post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9313612 <-- everyone should read this.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 18 2011 07:35 prplhz wrote:
Yea I'm gonna go ahead and vote now.

##Vote Skrammen

Reason for this is that he just comes in 8 hours before day1 ends, casts and vote with 2 paragraphs of resonable and does not respond to our pleas that he post some more content. I am going to be honest with you and say that maybe he's not the one who is most likely to be scum but I think he's the most harmful for the town right now.

If I should have voted for most likely to be scum I would vote for VisceraEyes for reasons I have already stated. Also his latest post is not really convincing me of anything else either.

To answer the post VisceraEyes just made, the one that was mainly about me; No I don't control anybody Other than that I can't seem to find anything in your post I should need to comment on because mostly you're just saying that you disagree with what I said.


Here is his Skrammen vote. After all he just went for an easy target, but the mafia must've realized later what weak position they'd have been in if the three of them all voted for Skrammen and got him lynched.

He's very careful and doesn't full-out accuse VisEyes.

On May 18 2011 07:55 Mataza wrote:
The hell?
You really think Skrammen is the best lynch? I can´t get my head around how anyone can think that.

Also purples reasoning for that sounds a lot like giygas reasoning.
He has posted only 2 paragraphs and already votes. Sounds eerily familiar to me.
Especially if you consider that Giygas is just voting on some random inactive person and trying not to slip up. He is so silent all of a sudden.


Including this because Mataza had honest intentions. He already spotted the similarities... the link between GiygaS and prplhz.

On May 18 2011 08:10 Mataza wrote:
prplhz will be top priority for the cop tonight, if we have a cop, that is.


Another Mataza quote. Put yourselves in a position of the mafia. GiygaS was already under heavy suspicion at this point, and prplhz was getting heavily linked to him by one of the more analytical players in the game.

I know I would've considered the gamble of throwing one under the bus to free another.

On May 18 2011 10:55 prplhz wrote:
Yea this may be a huge mistake but if I'm gonna make it, it is going to be in the first game.

##Unvote Skrammen
##Vote GiygaS


My rationale:

The whole "vote for skrammen" thing was never about him being scum, it was about him being inactive and voting out of the blue. I think that we are going to have a lot better read on VisceraEyes, Mataza and Skrammen if we flip GiygaS, while flipping Skrammen will really give us nothing. Inactive players have hopefully learned their lesson.

Also I think it is very awesome that everybody voted, but it would be more awesome if everybody posted regularly too!

If he does not flip red I think the VisceraEyes is the best bid for a scum next time.

I'll probably be unavailable for the next 24 hours by way, and also for the first part of day1 but I will be here to answer questions just not to provide analysis.


And here we are. Prplhz's one saving grace, one claim to fame in this game. This is where he won all his trust by gettin GiygaS lynched. I mean... it's obvious. Are we really going to lynch the person that ensured a mafia death on day1?

But why did Mataza keep going after him, Why did VisceraEyes keep suspecting him, why did DeepBlu2 keep wanting him lynched?

On May 19 2011 07:29 Mataza wrote:
First:
Analyze prplhz
-His tone is very rational, yet he does an emotional response to giygas flipping scum. ("I can´t believe
this.")
-He looks methodical in his approach and suggests he is a high priority target for the nightkill, even
after he has proven to have been pretty much useless up til now.
Under that light, he increased his usefulness by voting for Giygas.

Be very wary of him. I don´t have the time to analyze properly.


The following night there are some exchanges between VisEyes and prplhz, both pointing fingers at each other. Mataza continues actually analysing the situation and reaching the conclusion that prplhz should still be under heavy suspicion.

I ended up defending prplhz this night...

Following this there is a fuckton of information and analysis done by both myself and VisEyes. He is certain that prplhz and I are the scum, and I try to defend both of us.

Here's another analysis by Mataza:

On May 20 2011 08:14 Mataza wrote:
Also FoS prplhz.

He still gives me a chaotic read. His behaviour overall seems a little.....off.
Like he is planning spontaneous responses.
He talks about leaders being obviously bad for town, while a few hours later talking about how good it is to have people under control.
Literally. He doesn´t want to help lead the town, he only talks about control.
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 17 2011 21:48 prplhz wrote:
(Bladibla...)

I also think that it is bad that people have removed focus from Mataza. While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. He is very active and has agreed to answer every question directed at him. These are very useful qualities for town to find in a player, no matter if he is scum or townie. We should have tried to use these qualities to hunt scum.

I would love to have waited with this post until GiygaS next post but lets just go ahead and do some analysis.

I do not think that Mataza is harmful for this town just yet. He is under control so far, I would like him to be more harmful for the Mafia though. So I ask this:

@Mataza : With the information available to you now, who would you lynch if you should lynch the player you think is most likely to be Scum?

(Bladibla...)

@VisceraEyes : Do you think that it is beneficial for the town that you suddenly make a 180 in letting Mataza off the hook and go full force against stefftastiq?

Another player who has struck me as harmful to the town is Palmar. He has recently used some very questionable rhetorics to defend Mataza, and while it might be good that Mataza is not lynched, questionable rhetorics are always harmful to town. But on the other hand he also appears to be a very strong player who the town can make good use of later on, so maybe it is just a question of getting him under control

(Bladibla...)

It is very good to have people under control; the more they post the more we can ask questions and the more we can make ourselves sure that someone is scum/townie. We will probably have two modkills but maybe it will be beneficial to town to lynch one of the least active players, to set an example, to make the game more fun, to maybe hit a lurking scum!

Oh yeah and GiygaS; my nick is "purple haze" without any vowels or spaces


He mostly points out things that are bad or "harmful" for town, but never about things that actually help us. All that, while he goes out of his way and calls himself important enough to be the nightkill, because "they might be afraid that I will try to rally people".
Him rallying people never looked probable or even possible to me.


After rereading all his posts, there is only 2 explanations in my mind:
1) He is greatly holding back, while thinking he is absolutely invaluable. He doesn´t know in the
least how he appears to the town
2) He is scum trying to be perceived as invaluable, a good analyst. With superior knowledge he
has a deep understanding of what actually happens. But because he is Mafia, he cannot post
why his maf buddies are suspicious.


I really, really want to think he is town since he was quite active. It just doesn´t fit somehow.


Day 2 is hell of a lot more frantic than day 1. There are loads of fingers pointing everywhere, so I will try to summarize it in order to keep this post a readable length.

Mataza FoS'd prplhz quite heavily. VisEyes was unsure in what to do because his campaign against me didn't receive much support. He both defended and accused prplhz at points during day2.

I attacked Mataza without voting him, and defended prplhz. Nard also defended prplhz.

At some point prplhz claimed that he got roleblocked during the night. It is really interesting why he did not immediately claim this, because why on earth would you wait for such a long time if you're town?


On May 20 2011 11:21 prplhz wrote:
@VisceraEyes

Uh his risky secret plan appeared to be very poor and he apparently assumed stuff that was not true. Palmar tore it apart and now he's suddenly on a crusade against me. I don't really know honestly, but I am not too worried. Even if he succeeds, which I very much doubt, the mafia is gonna have a very hard time. I think that 'Visceraness' is a good word to describe what he's doing right now. It almost seem like he's panicking.


Here is another prplhz agree with me. I really got fooled by this shit.


Everyone read this analysis by Mataza please:

On May 21 2011 00:44 Mataza wrote:
The big analysis of Prplhz


Prplhz has been preceived as scummy day1. After Giygas flipped red, perceived suspicion against him dropped a whole lot, as we are seemingly back to hunting inactives.
If I am right, he knew he was suspicious day 1. He also knew Giygas was even worse off. So he tried to make 2 bads into 1 good and voted Giygas off, so he is cleared off suspicion.


1) Now it has been enough time to relatively safely assume we have no cop in the game.
If this is true, it means we have 1 doc and no roleblockers ingame.
But prplhz claimed to have been roleblocked.
+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=19#364
On May 20 2011 08:36 prplhz wrote:
Oh shit I need to do some roleblock discussion too.

Right, Karshe got killed and I got blocked. We either have Doc+Cop or we have vanilla town. The scum has known this all along.

Now Imagine this. Scum tried to block townie. Why on earth would they do that? Only makes sense if they are trying to do some mind games, but would it not be better to block someone other than me? Someone who is townie but who is acting scummy? Now imagine this: Scum tried to block Doc. If I am doc would their blocking me have helped in their assassination of Karshe? Not likely, I do not think I ever even mentioned Karshe before he was killed so why would they think I would try to save him? So scum tried to block Cop?

What are your thoughts on this?


My thought on this matter is he is Scum and there is no roleblock.
He tried to distract us with talk about happy fun stuff like who the scum thinks is Doctor or Cop.
That´s my stance on it.



2) Prplhz talks about leaders being obviously bad for town, while a few hours later talking about how good it is to have people under control.
+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=6#102
On May 17 2011 09:26 prplhz wrote:
Sup guys

Right now I am mainly suspecting Mataza, mainly because of something that Mataza said early on:

Show nested quote +
On May 16 2011 12:52 Mataza wrote:
I think I overestimated my town


Now this statement could very well be benign but it is doing two things: degrading the town to diminish people's confidence in their ability to play this game (overestimate) making them more susceptible to get influenced by someone (himself) and setting himself up as a "leader" of the town (my town). I do not know why Mataza is trying to set himself up as a leader of the town but there are two scenarios:

1. He's a scum: He wants to control people and mislead them to vote for innocent people and keep the mafia save.

2. He's a townie: He wants to control people and lead to to vote for guilty scum and keep the town save.

Either way he is trying to be a "leader" of the town and this in itself is bad. A town should never have a leader and should instead have people thinking very independently forming their own opinion, this should happen through discussion and activity of course. Mataza is very savvy and probably knows that having a leader is not good for a town, so why is he trying to set himself up to be one? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.

Now stuff that might talk against this:

First: Mataza is actually not pointing fingers at anybody, I think we should be very careful if he ever decides to "lead" "his town" to vote for someone. Second (as pointed out by Mataza himself): If he is trying to lead this town as a scum would lead it we would quickly find out (we would lynch innocent people). And since we can afford losing people, trading a townie (guy Mataza would want to lynch) for a scum (Mataza) is really a good deal for the town. Maybe he is setting himself and the mafia up for mid/late game? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.

Other than that I think that all the debate around Mataza is hurting the town (we are not talking about someone else). So to stop this I am going to talk about someone else:

VisceraEyes and GiygaS

It is very hard for me to argue against VisceraEyes and GiygaS because I am also suspicious of Mataza.

This is very hard because, while these two guys have been on Mataza's back the whole time they claim that it has been for the sake of activity. This has worked alright since these three guys are arguably the most contributing players in this game right now so their claimed plans have worked out well. But why are they not directing any of this activity against each other? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.

(Bladibla...)

Show nested quote +
On May 17 2011 02:25 nard wrote:
i can imagine there are still some people thinking about what they could include in their first post which is not completely trivial - took me a while as well :p


While this might be a whole new game for everybody it should not be hard for an innocent townie to write a simple "hello" post. Maybe nard is having a hard time writing his first post because he is a scum with a hidden agenda and then he is thinking that everybody else is having a hard time too? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.

Note that he also likes us to ask ourself questions, derailing from the important things.
+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=7#129
On May 17 2011 21:48 prplhz wrote:
(Bladibla...)

I also think that it is bad that people have removed focus from Mataza. While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. He is very active and has agreed to answer every question directed at him. These are very useful qualities for town to find in a player, no matter if he is scum or townie. We should have tried to use these qualities to hunt scum.

I would love to have waited with this post until GiygaS next post but lets just go ahead and do some analysis.

I do not think that Mataza is harmful for this town just yet. He is under control so far, I would like him to be more harmful for the Mafia though. So I ask this:

@Mataza : With the information available to you now, who would you lynch if you should lynch the player you think is most likely to be Scum?

(Bladibla...)

@VisceraEyes : Do you think that it is beneficial for the town that you suddenly make a 180 in letting Mataza off the hook and go full force against stefftastiq?

Another player who has struck me as harmful to the town is Palmar. He has recently used some very questionable rhetorics to defend Mataza, and while it might be good that Mataza is not lynched, questionable rhetorics are always harmful to town. But on the other hand he also appears to be a very strong player who the town can make good use of later on, so maybe it is just a question of getting him under control

(Bladibla...)

It is very good to have people under control; the more they post the more we can ask questions and the more we can make ourselves sure that someone is scum/townie. We will probably have two modkills but maybe it will be beneficial to town to lynch one of the least active players, to set an example, to make the game more fun, to maybe hit a lurking scum!

Oh yeah and GiygaS; my nick is "purple haze" without any vowels or spaces

He took a 180 turn on whether or not control is good. Without any given reason. This is very important so I´d like you to read twice. The good parts are marked
Where did this sudden change come from?



3) Voting affairs.
His last 3 posts before his vote:+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=8#148
On May 18 2011 03:11 prplhz wrote:
@Skrammen

Hi, could you please, in a very short while, provide A LOT more content for us to analyze? I was kinda hoping you would get modkilled.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=8#152
On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote:
Maybe we cracked down too much on people trying to create drama 'cause I have to agree with Karshe that there is too little discussion going on.

So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night!

So let me say that I've cracked down a bit on the active people, but in the end I think I am going to vote for an inactive player because the evil you don't know is far more scary than the evil you do know! This will most likely only be for day1 though and I'm sure the scums already know that. So if they eliminate me it will be because they might be afraid that I will try to rally people to kill off someone who I think is a scum, and who is active.

People who fit this description according to my posts so far are VisceraEyes and GiygaS, I said that if they turned on each other they would most likely be one scum, one good guy. So if I happen to get mafia killed on first night I think these are people you should really watch out for, but probably only one of them is scum!

So what about you people, if you had to write a testament to the town today, what would it say?

And by the way, I am going to write a vote post in around an hour, so it will be up before two hours.

((OOC: Oh and Palmar, no hard feelings about the "idiot" thing ))

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=8#160
On May 18 2011 07:35 prplhz wrote:
Yea I'm gonna go ahead and vote now.

##Vote Skrammen

Reason for this is that he just comes in 8 hours before day1 ends, casts and vote with 2 paragraphs of resonable and does not respond to our pleas that he post some more content. I am going to be honest with you and say that maybe he's not the one who is most likely to be scum but I think he's the most harmful for the town right now.

If I should have voted for most likely to be scum I would vote for VisceraEyes for reasons I have already stated. Also his latest post is not really convincing me of anything else either.

To answer the post VisceraEyes just made, the one that was mainly about me; No I don't control anybody Other than that I can't seem to find anything in your post I should need to comment on because mostly you're just saying that you disagree with what I said.
Notice also that prplhz looked forward to Skrammen being modkilled. There is a low chance that a modkill is mafia(3 out of 12 people). This is only minor, but keep it in mind.
More importantly notice how Giygas votes within 10 minutes of Prplhz.+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=8#157
On May 18 2011 07:25 GiygaS wrote:
Hello everyone!

On the subject of me having 3 votes, I'm more worried about who could slip by. Namely Skrammen.

Skrammen hasn't posted at all until suddenly, he burst on the scene: Announcing his business the last few days very vaguely, Then jumps on the current trend of voting for me, without any reasoning behind doing so. This seems very dangerous to me, so I'm going to vote for him for the same reason that prplhz has reasoned: an evil unknown is far greater then a known one.

##Vote Skrammen


First of all, this is out of character for Giygas. He somehow used great parts of prplhz reasoning before prplhz used it. Coincidence? I think not. Prplhz has been whispering into Giygas ear to write exactly that.
And at the end, like I said at the beginning, Prplhz changed his vote.
+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=11#220
On May 18 2011 10:55 prplhz wrote:
Yea this may be a huge mistake but if I'm gonna make it, it is going to be in the first game.

##Unvote Skrammen
##Vote GiygaS


My rationale:

The whole "vote for skrammen" thing was never about him being scum, it was about him being inactive and voting out of the blue. I think that we are going to have a lot better read on VisceraEyes, Mataza and Skrammen if we flip GiygaS, while flipping Skrammen will really give us nothing. Inactive players have hopefully learned their lesson.

Also I think it is very awesome that everybody voted, but it would be more awesome if everybody posted regularly too!

If he does not flip red I think the VisceraEyes is the best bid for a scum next time.

I'll probably be unavailable for the next 24 hours by way, and also for the first part of day1 but I will be here to answer questions just not to provide analysis.
He did change his vote to get a better read or in other words, to get answers. But what was his reaction to Giygas being red? + Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=12#235
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2011 11:26 prplhz wrote:
I can't believe this.


A little short, no? I thought we wanted to get answers.
Why would you be shocked *at all* at giygas flipping red? You don´t know who mafia is, so you kinda suspect everyone.

The solution: Prplhz puts up an act.
This short answer is saying "I did not expect Giygas to be red"
On the other hand, he put the nail in the coffin and cast the final vote on Giygas.

A clear contradiction.



4) Little things.
Example a:
A long post that talks about Viscera and Giygas turning on each other.
Did this happen? I can´t remember that this happened at all.
He also talked about him being a target for the nightkill, because he "has been rallying people" all day. I did not notice any of his rallying.
+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=8#152
On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote:
Maybe we cracked down too much on people trying to create drama 'cause I have to agree with Karshe that there is too little discussion going on.

So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night!

So let me say that I've cracked down a bit on the active people, but in the end I think I am going to vote for an inactive player because the evil you don't know is far more scary than the evil you do know! This will most likely only be for day1 though and I'm sure the scums already know that. So if they eliminate me it will be because they might be afraid that I will try to rally people to kill off someone who I think is a scum, and who is active.

People who fit this description according to my posts so far are VisceraEyes and GiygaS, I said that if they turned on each other they would most likely be one scum, one good guy. So if I happen to get mafia killed on first night I think these are people you should really watch out for, but probably only one of them is scum!

So what about you people, if you had to write a testament to the town today, what would it say?

And by the way, I am going to write a vote post in around an hour, so it will be up before two hours.

((OOC: Oh and Palmar, no hard feelings about the "idiot" thing ))


+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568&currentpage=21
On May 20 2011 11:09 prplhz wrote:
Hey

I just want to clarify that what GiygaS said after his lynching should NOT be considered by anybody as evidence of anything. The game ends when you die but as the rules state you can make a GG post and that's what GiygaS did.

Show nested quote +
On May 18 2011 13:07 GiygaS wrote:
GG everyone. Almost had you


It is very unfortunate that he did not stop his sentence 3 words and a smiley earlier but I am sure that he did not mean anything by it.

I'll post more analysis later but I'm always up for questions directed at me.
Here he wishes Giygas would have stopped his last comment 3 words earlier. Why could that be?
My guess is that Giygas should have said something different.
Nobody else cares about this little quip. I see no reason to even read something into that. So why does Prplhz do?

If you read Prplhz post history, look especially for him asking questions that derail us away from the question who is mafia. He often goes to "why would mafia do this" and other stuff. He especially talk often about things being harmful to town, but he never spoke about something being good for town. That is a scumtell, known along the line of "bashing bad ideas but never bringing forth any good ideas".



Prplhz is scum. I am as convinced as I was with Giygas.
My vote stays ##vote Prplhz


Help me help you help win the game.


And another post from Mataza

On May 21 2011 10:57 Mataza wrote:
@Viscera
I wish you luck going into day 3.

@Palmar
Your fear got the better of you. You should step up your game dramatically.


@Prplhz
I hope you die next. With this little interest from town, you might have already won.


If our blue role was a vigilante, I could see why he is important. I cannot understand why Doctor did what he did.
But the COP is only good if he works with the town before he dies without saying a word.

GG



On May 21 2011 11:43 DeepBlu2 wrote:
You guys are retarded. Please listen to me. I said not to lynch him and to lynch purplehaze. Mataza has done nothing but help the town and I don't understand why you guys would lynch him. I honestly just gave up hope and I don't if I can provide analysis if you guys will just ignore it and make a bad decision. Vis, I'm incredibly dissapointed in you for being a frontrunner as well as the others. You decreased our chances of winning significantly.


And here DeepBlu2, who has been very quiet, voiced his strong opinion that prplhz should have been the one hanging. He paid with his life that night.

Day 3 begins with prplhz doing two analyses without actually reaching a conclusion that one of them if mafia or town. Just two more really careful posts about two people who might or might not be mafia in his eyes. No reason to anger anyone when you're about to get under heavy suspicion, I guess!

And then finally, look at this:

On May 23 2011 07:23 prplhz wrote:
@VisceraEyes

I think this is very weird because I'm like 98% sure that you're townie, and like 90% sure that Palmar is townie. So I think it is very weird that you're going at us like you are. But I've noticed that Palmar is clearly better at this game than I am and I want town to win so I'm gonna propose that you vote for me instead of Palmar, and then if I flip green you don't go for Palmar after me but instead work with him to find the remaining scum. This is not ideal as I'd like to be here all game but I think maybe it's the only way to convince you. And it's too late if you're convinced that you're not right AFTER you lynch Palmar because then I think town will have lost one of it's best players and that can't happen (again!).

So I'd like you to consider either voting for me instead of Palmar and encouraging others to do so too, or to drop your silly crusade because as Mataza said before he died, Palmar is not scum. I might be but Palmar sure isn't. That's what he said VisceraEyes and I can find the quote if you don't believe me.


This is what finally got me, and convinced me. prplhz is really advocating a lynch on himself over me? It's never a good idea to suggest a self-lynch as townie, because that way you're not mafia.

This is him trying to overcompensate for the suspicions by claiming he's willing to take the axe "for the good of the town"

And once again, he's buying my friendship with trust. I won't fall to that anymore, I'm not going to let VisEyes's crusade against me blind me again, like Mataza pointed out to me before his death.

Let's not screw this up again guys.

I apologize. prplhz has been playing me like a fool this entire game.

##Vote: prplhz
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 23 2011 10:26 GMT
#529
It's never a good idea to suggest a self-lynch as townie, because that way you're not mafia.


This should of course read: because that way you're not LYNCHING mafia
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 23 2011 12:53 GMT
#533
I think the picture is getting pretty clear, the only person I still have problems with is Wunder. He doesn't fit my theory, but he seems very much not pro-town.


VisceraEyes
Palmar
Skrammen
Stefftastiq
Nard

Wunder

prplhz
Hiro Protagonist

It'll take something colossal (bigger than Mataza's roleclaim idea) to change my mind from this point.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 23 2011 13:09 GMT
#535
On May 23 2011 10:04 hiro protagonist wrote:
Im going to go back through the game and see what I can dig up. I am gonna be looking at anyone who was suspicious of prplhz after day 1. I see no reason why his vote on day 1 doesn't make him a 100% townie. The only thing I can think of is if Skrammen is also Mafia, witch would make sense to vote of the suspicious scum in favor of the less suspicious. I ask that any one else to give me another reason why prplhz is mafia if they have a reason. i would be intrigued to hear.


I see prplhz still has some allies...
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 23 2011 21:38 GMT
#542
I believe the current score is

1 hiro
Stefftastiq
(prplhz - hasn't voted, but presumably will be voting here)
1 palmar
Wunder
2 prplhz
Palmar
VisEyes
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 23 2011 21:50 GMT
#543
@Stefftastiq

I agree with you on Hiro Protagonist. Do you think I'm wrong on prplhz?

I have no problem with voting for Hiro tonight. But I think we should try to align our votes so that we don't give the one we agree on a chance to escape. Prplhz seems to be the brain behind their plan, so killing him first makes sense to me.

GMarshal: Are dead mafia allowed to keep communicating with their fellow mafia?

But if Skrammen/Nard are more comfortable with killing hiro, and VisEyes agrees to switch, we can do that.

Just remember it's 6 town v 2 mafia. This means we need 5 votes to ensure majority, and I don't see much help coming from Wunder.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 23 2011 23:01 GMT
#548
Three hours from now.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 24 2011 01:33 GMT
#553
Well that's kind of what we're doing Wunder.

My analysis of prplhz is largely based on Mataza's analysis... and his last post said that he wanted prplhz dead.

So yeah...
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 24 2011 01:45 GMT
#557
On May 24 2011 10:40 hiro protagonist wrote:
im here, I just cant decide...


Trying to decide if you should bandwagon to try to buy safety or if you should vote me?
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 24 2011 02:06 GMT
#566
I don't think it would've mattered.

I kinda wanted to switch too... Hiro was always my original mafia candidate. Main reason I went for prplhz was Mataza and DeepBlu2.

Guess we were all wrong.

Sucks, see you tomorrow.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 24 2011 02:09 GMT
#568
Note that this means we have either only vanilla townies, or we have both a doc and cop.

Prplhz wouldn't have been lying about being roleblocked twice, so the set-up is either one of those. Seeing how the game is flowing, I'm leaning towards 9 vanillas...
Computer says mafia
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