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On May 18 2011 14:26 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2011 14:23 Incognito wrote: Any of the single voter lists should be investigated. M2DT should investigate the Kavdragon lynch. I'll investigate the Barundar list once Mr. Inventory gives me a list check kit. If there is anyone that shouldn't be getting an investigation kit, it's you. You are on the Kavdragon lynch list. And you are on the Incognito list. Who do you suggest we actually give this kit to?
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On May 18 2011 14:28 Ace wrote: Anyone not on the Barundar or Kavdragon voting lists. Anyone is not a good answer. Name someone specific please.
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On May 18 2011 14:32 KillerSOS wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2011 14:27 Incognito wrote:On May 18 2011 14:26 Ace wrote:On May 18 2011 14:23 Incognito wrote: Any of the single voter lists should be investigated. M2DT should investigate the Kavdragon lynch. I'll investigate the Barundar list once Mr. Inventory gives me a list check kit. If there is anyone that shouldn't be getting an investigation kit, it's you. You are on the Kavdragon lynch list. And you are on the Incognito list. Who do you suggest we actually give this kit to? What's wrong with being on the Incognito list? I don't see how Kav flipping town proves you're a townie. Because from my point of view, I know I'm a townie. Anyone else is either a) likely to die, or b) not certain townie. The conditions for receiving a list check kit is it must be a townie, and they must not die, otherwise it fails.
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Fine. Good Night, see you all tomorrow.
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Information Checks: chaoser Fishball Chezinu kitaman27 Dreamflower Foolishness Caller Scamp Flamewheel Ace
It doesn't matter whether it is role or alignment. We need some information on these people.
Vig Hits: KillerSOS
He either makes irrelevant posts, shoots down people's ideas, or spreads doubt. Gloats after the lynch, but does nothing to stop it.
Medic list. It should read:
Radfield GMarshal
Besides myself, nobody is really taking the spotlight. This is pretty disappointing. It probably means the mafia is content with the way things are going right now. The people posting night action lists are looking pretty good right now.
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On May 18 2011 19:19 Radfield wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Incog, you fooled me the first game I ever played. I was sure you were pro-town, but instead you dominated town, took control, and lead mafia to victory with about 5 members left over. Something flamewheel hosted... XXI maybe? + Show Spoiler +In that game you died day 1. Don't think there was too much fooling going on there. Either way if you look at that game I'm playing wayyy differently.
Ace and Foolishness don't deserve medic protection.
Whoever is the Bullet Bill should check Eiii or Chaoser.
Also reading over Radfield and Barundar's posts, I agree with the thesis that neither of the lynch candidates are mafia, and that the mafia probably wasn't heavily concerned about the lynch. This makes vote list checks that much more useless. I propose that Scamp give a gunpowder sniffing kit (that works like Bullet Bill) to someone instead of a vote list check kit. Individual checks are probably better right now than blanket checks. Besides, Mafia XII GF is the only mafia GF that can evade a BB check. Making bulletproof vests is useless. Its not like the inventor will even be able to guess who to give it to correctly.
On May 19 2011 01:39 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2011 19:57 Radfield wrote: Ace, your attack of the Barundar train is silly given the fact that Kav flipped town. Basically what you're saying is that Barundar was an easy target for mafia to lump in on. That makes no sense, since they(we) were given an excellent opportunity to vote for Kavdragon instead, who flipped town. Anyone who needed a place to vote could have been 'persuaded' to vote Kav at any time. Now, that being said, the Barundar vote was the initial 2nd choice to voting for Incognito, so if by chance mafia were attempting to save Incog, then Barundar would have been the place to vote. However, if you're looking at votes to save Incog, it's the three that came down the stretch for Kav that did it. NO votes came down the stretch for Barundar(except for Foolishness, a valiant effort, but a failed one). Bumatlarge. Where were you(I don't mean this literally)? You vehemently defended Kavdragon early on, but completely disappeared for 6 hours, despite the heat growing considerably on him, only to pop in 1 minute after the day post to apologize. You never once pushed for Barundar, a player who was a viable alternative to Kav. On May 18 2011 14:25 bumatlarge wrote: Are you guys honestly trying to pin this as kav's fault? You guys are all awful, Im 100x better then all of you. Excuse me while I net us some scum. No need to be aggressive when you did so little to stop it from happening. In other news, I look forward to you netting us scum. No, it's very valid. There has not been one credible argument against Barundar. Ever. Just because KavCaprio flipped Town doesn't mean Barundar is Scum. The Barundar train was terrible, just stop trying to pass it off. As for the bolded don't try and say "this is what you were saying". It wasn't. If I wanted to say it or imply it - I would have said it. Barundar and KavCaprio could both be innocent. Then what? Why would the mafia have to be "persuaded" to do anything? It's two innocents. As long as no mafia die there isn't any WIFOM there. It makes excellent sense. You and Incognito are the top 2 suspects. One for the KavCaprio lynch, the other for the Barundar train. This "Barundar was an alternative lynch" spiel is utter garbage. Show me just ONE credible case against him.
This is townie Ace who's too proud to do real analysis, or this is mafia Ace. The problem with Ace this game is that while he has been active in the thread and pushed an agenda, he hasn't taken the spotlight. He's piled everything up on me, and is content to sit back and yell the Incognito is scummy mantra. Ace isn't scumhunting. He's trying to lynch obvious townies who are just a bit out there. Ace is acting irrationally while trying to appear rational. He has a gun, so nobody's going to want to argue with him. Right?
kitaman, please tell me why deconduo is confirmed anti-town
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On May 19 2011 09:59 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2011 09:28 Incognito wrote:On May 18 2011 19:19 Radfield wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Incog, you fooled me the first game I ever played. I was sure you were pro-town, but instead you dominated town, took control, and lead mafia to victory with about 5 members left over. Something flamewheel hosted... XXI maybe? + Show Spoiler +In that game you died day 1. Don't think there was too much fooling going on there. Either way if you look at that game I'm playing wayyy differently. Ace and Foolishness don't deserve medic protection. Whoever is the Bullet Bill should check Eiii or Chaoser. Also reading over Radfield and Barundar's posts, I agree with the thesis that neither of the lynch candidates are mafia, and that the mafia probably wasn't heavily concerned about the lynch. This makes vote list checks that much more useless. I propose that Scamp give a gunpowder sniffing kit (that works like Bullet Bill) to someone instead of a vote list check kit. Individual checks are probably better right now than blanket checks. Besides, Mafia XII GF is the only mafia GF that can evade a BB check. Making bulletproof vests is useless. Its not like the inventor will even be able to guess who to give it to correctly. On May 19 2011 01:39 Ace wrote:On May 18 2011 19:57 Radfield wrote: Ace, your attack of the Barundar train is silly given the fact that Kav flipped town. Basically what you're saying is that Barundar was an easy target for mafia to lump in on. That makes no sense, since they(we) were given an excellent opportunity to vote for Kavdragon instead, who flipped town. Anyone who needed a place to vote could have been 'persuaded' to vote Kav at any time. Now, that being said, the Barundar vote was the initial 2nd choice to voting for Incognito, so if by chance mafia were attempting to save Incog, then Barundar would have been the place to vote. However, if you're looking at votes to save Incog, it's the three that came down the stretch for Kav that did it. NO votes came down the stretch for Barundar(except for Foolishness, a valiant effort, but a failed one). Bumatlarge. Where were you(I don't mean this literally)? You vehemently defended Kavdragon early on, but completely disappeared for 6 hours, despite the heat growing considerably on him, only to pop in 1 minute after the day post to apologize. You never once pushed for Barundar, a player who was a viable alternative to Kav. On May 18 2011 14:25 bumatlarge wrote: Are you guys honestly trying to pin this as kav's fault? You guys are all awful, Im 100x better then all of you. Excuse me while I net us some scum. No need to be aggressive when you did so little to stop it from happening. In other news, I look forward to you netting us scum. No, it's very valid. There has not been one credible argument against Barundar. Ever. Just because KavCaprio flipped Town doesn't mean Barundar is Scum. The Barundar train was terrible, just stop trying to pass it off. As for the bolded don't try and say "this is what you were saying". It wasn't. If I wanted to say it or imply it - I would have said it. Barundar and KavCaprio could both be innocent. Then what? Why would the mafia have to be "persuaded" to do anything? It's two innocents. As long as no mafia die there isn't any WIFOM there. It makes excellent sense. You and Incognito are the top 2 suspects. One for the KavCaprio lynch, the other for the Barundar train. This "Barundar was an alternative lynch" spiel is utter garbage. Show me just ONE credible case against him. This is townie Ace who's too proud to do real analysis, or this is mafia Ace. The problem with Ace this game is that while he has been active in the thread and pushed an agenda, he hasn't taken the spotlight. He's piled everything up on me, and is content to sit back and yell the Incognito is scummy mantra. Ace isn't scumhunting. He's trying to lynch obvious townies who are just a bit out there. Ace is acting irrationally while trying to appear rational. He has a gun, so nobody's going to want to argue with him. Right? kitaman, please tell me why deconduo is confirmed anti-town Who's acting irrational? You were on the wagon of a confirmed innocent and flip flopped on Day 1. Stop it. Townies are wrong all the time. But who am I kidding, I don't need to convince you of anything.
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On May 19 2011 12:05 Foolishness wrote: At the end of the day yesterday, I just thought Incognito had a bad case of Pyrrhuloxitis and wasn't really mafia, since to me some of his arguments against Kav were lol. So I didn't change my vote off of him until the end, but I lost track of time because I was watching proleague. Shit happens. Now I'm not sure what to think anymore. At the very least, Incog's attitude does not help the town in the current situation so I will still be voting him unless new information surfaces.
And frankly, I doubt anything new will come up. If the vote checker checks some list (as planned) would you have them claim the results even if they aren't damning? We all know mafia spread out votes as much as possible, so they will probably get a 1/5 people are mafia in one of the lists. Well big freaking deal since we got a 1/5 chance of randomly killing a mafia with a lynch anyways. I fail to see how vote checking is going to get us anywhere tomorrow. This game has lots of good players, mafia aren't going to be stupid and lose because of a vote check.
If nobody else is going to try to do some normal, mafia analysis, we might as well just throw in the towel now. These vote checks which are going to return 1/5 are mafia aren't going to help anything until day 4 when we get a bunch more vote checks to properly nab the mafia. Game will probably be close to over by then.
So what you're trying to say, is that you will be voting me, even though mafia were uninvolved in the lynch and probably spread out their votes, which wouldn't happen unless I'm town. Congratz. I, on the other hand, think we will find out some good information tonight.
I also like how you haven't given any analysis. Congratz again. When will people stop being afraid of looking stupid and actually do something?
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On May 19 2011 12:21 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2011 12:17 Incognito wrote:On May 19 2011 12:05 Foolishness wrote: At the end of the day yesterday, I just thought Incognito had a bad case of Pyrrhuloxitis and wasn't really mafia, since to me some of his arguments against Kav were lol. So I didn't change my vote off of him until the end, but I lost track of time because I was watching proleague. Shit happens. Now I'm not sure what to think anymore. At the very least, Incog's attitude does not help the town in the current situation so I will still be voting him unless new information surfaces.
And frankly, I doubt anything new will come up. If the vote checker checks some list (as planned) would you have them claim the results even if they aren't damning? We all know mafia spread out votes as much as possible, so they will probably get a 1/5 people are mafia in one of the lists. Well big freaking deal since we got a 1/5 chance of randomly killing a mafia with a lynch anyways. I fail to see how vote checking is going to get us anywhere tomorrow. This game has lots of good players, mafia aren't going to be stupid and lose because of a vote check.
If nobody else is going to try to do some normal, mafia analysis, we might as well just throw in the towel now. These vote checks which are going to return 1/5 are mafia aren't going to help anything until day 4 when we get a bunch more vote checks to properly nab the mafia. Game will probably be close to over by then. So what you're trying to say, is that you will be voting me, even though mafia were uninvolved in the lynch and probably spread out their votes, which wouldn't happen unless I'm town. Congratz. I, on the other hand, think we will find out some good information tonight. I also like how you haven't given any analysis. Congratz again. When will people stop being afraid of looking stupid and actually do something? And you've got loads of analysis Mr "let's wait for blues to win us the game"? Yes I do, but if nobody cares about this game, I won't bother. See, I can play this game too!
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See? Something turned up. Given how the last few pages turned out I'm pretty confident the recent posters are town. I wouldve expected maybe 1 player on the Kavdragon lynch to actually be mafia, but I guess there's two. At this point, my guess is on Chezinu and Caller.
Feel free to lynch me. But I seriously doubt you'll be able to, once I do the exact opposite of what the mafia would want to do.
##Nuke Chezinu
Everyone should agree that getting rid of Chezinu is a pro-town move. Especially now that there is a vote check on the Kavdragon lynch. Now seriously, what mafia would shoot into a vote list that has 2/6 red on it? Unless of course I am conspiring with GMarshal to screw over the town, this doesn't make any sense. But then again, conspiring with GMarshal doesn't make too much sense either if I'm announcing that option. Furthermore, it makes no sense for mafia to take America. Especially after Radfield proclaimed it an anti-town role. But if you think about it, its the most transparent role in the game. There's no way for me to hide from a misuse of the role, and its not like I can use it to kill blatant townspeople without significant backlash. Frankly put, America is a ridiculous option for mafia. There are way better KP roles for them to use. So feel free to pile your votes on me now. Nobody else type the nuke command. When Ver confirms that a nuke has been launched, you can all take your votes off me, ok?
I'll be back later with some more thoughts.
+ Show Spoiler +Funny thing I saw a couple days ago in the news: "IMF chief's arrest stirs up anti-Americanism in France" Seems fitting, huh Radfield? 
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On May 20 2011 03:02 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2011 02:28 Incognito wrote:See? Something turned up. Given how the last few pages turned out I'm pretty confident the recent posters are town. I wouldve expected maybe 1 player on the Kavdragon lynch to actually be mafia, but I guess there's two. At this point, my guess is on Chezinu and Caller. Feel free to lynch me. But I seriously doubt you'll be able to, once I do the exact opposite of what the mafia would want to do. ##Nuke ChezinuEveryone should agree that getting rid of Chezinu is a pro-town move. Especially now that there is a vote check on the Kavdragon lynch. Now seriously, what mafia would shoot into a vote list that has 2/6 red on it? Unless of course I am conspiring with GMarshal to screw over the town, this doesn't make any sense. But then again, conspiring with GMarshal doesn't make too much sense either if I'm announcing that option. Furthermore, it makes no sense for mafia to take America. Especially after Radfield proclaimed it an anti-town role. But if you think about it, its the most transparent role in the game. There's no way for me to hide from a misuse of the role, and its not like I can use it to kill blatant townspeople without significant backlash. Frankly put, America is a ridiculous option for mafia. There are way better KP roles for them to use. So feel free to pile your votes on me now. Nobody else type the nuke command. When Ver confirms that a nuke has been launched, you can all take your votes off me, ok? I'll be back later with some more thoughts. + Show Spoiler +Funny thing I saw a couple days ago in the news: "IMF chief's arrest stirs up anti-Americanism in France" Seems fitting, huh Radfield?  :/ Why are you always trying to force us with this "this role is a ridiculous option for Mafia" talk? I thought you and Radfield agreed that this was another role on the no-pick list? See. This is what I don't get about you two. Both of you are going against your Day 1 plans. What gives Incognito? With Radfield I have an idea about his..."pick" and it has nothing to do with whats going on this game. But now you're nuking when I could have sworn "nukes are bad" was a Scum move. So now if Chezinu flips town we waste a day on you, and if he flips Scum you just bussed a teammate and started a which hunt on 4 other innocents. You didn't even discuss anything, or even claim before nuking (if your even America). How is that pro-town? Uh...I never agreed with Radfield's plan. "Invisible posters" remember?
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On May 20 2011 03:13 Node wrote: Out of the five people on the Kav voting list, I'm most willing to believe that Chezinu is scum. But now I'm completely unsure about Incognito. I didn't think scum would be willing to risk choosing America, but at the same time I feel that it's extremely anti-town to force three kills in one day, especially when Chezinu might have died by Wiggles' hand, without discussing it at all in public.
And if Chezinu is scum, then we've got the mother of all WIFOMs on our hands as we wonder whether or not Incog bussed him -- and because we know (provided GMarshal's not in on this) there's another scum on that list, we'll lynch blindly and waste who knows how many days.
I can't take this move as being good for the town. Therefore, Incognito just got a lot more scummy to me. Everyone uses this term "WIFOM" as if its impossible to figure anything out. In case you haven't noticed, the entire game of mafia is WIFOM. All behavior analysis boils down to "X is mafia because of Y". But if X knew that Y was suspicious, he wouldn't have done that. You can never be certain. There is no clear cut logic. But the fact is that we still play this game, and people get analysis right. Even though everything is technically WIFOM, not all options are equal. Mafia could lurk, they could be active, they can act risky, they could play it safe. They could even say "hi im mafia" and proceed to clearly attack pro-town players, on the basis that mafia would never be so blatant. Not all those options are equally good. Obviously some (playing safe, contributing without contributing, blending in, etc.) are better than others.
Just think about it for a second. Its pretty obvious that even if Chezinu flips mafia, people will still be skeptical. Like has been said many times, bussing isn't really that effective for mafia. If Chezinu was mafia, why would I bus him? I just lost 1/6 of my team, with no guarantee that I will be saved. If Chezinu flips town, then it doesn't make sense for me to be mafia because I just eliminated a scummy player and narrowed down the vote list from 2/6 to 2/5. If Looking at the thread condition right now, if I was mafia, I'd be best to shoot the people who are trying to get stuff done. Dreamflower, Ace, Flamewheel are all much better nuke targets. I could probably easily justify those nukes too. But I didn't. I shot someone I think is mafia, and I am narrowing down the vote list if I'm wrong. The simplest explanation is often the best. You can go loopy doubting yourself in WIFOMland if you'd like, but that really isn't a productive use of brainpower.
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On May 20 2011 03:11 Ace wrote: Well, thats that then.
So why did you nuke Chezinu with no discussion from anyone else? That's a bit hasty isn't it? Yes, the person who wants to ignore all my contributions and finger me out as mafia based on a Incog is fingerpointing mantra now wants to discuss. Chezinu is useless. He's on the list. He was one of my suspects. You're obviously wrong on my alignment, so I don't see why I should trust your judgment either. Don't worry, it wasn't a hasty decision. I read through the other posts. I see what information people are throwing out and am acting accordingly. You're probably just mad that you can't influence every decision everyone makes.
On May 20 2011 03:11 Kurumi wrote: You listed me as invisible poster twice while I posted a bit,Your list was ALWAYS inaccurate.
You're pretty invinsible so that's accurate. What I wasn't accurate on was that you're mafia, but at this point it doesn't matter.
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On May 20 2011 03:43 Ace wrote: Thing is I dont think you read a lot of posts except for the one post calling Chezinu out by dreamflower. You just so happened to nuke him without any discussion. For someone who's been calling himself the pro-town savior all game long that is VERY out of character. There is no basis for that statement. Unless of course you are looking over my shoulder, which I highly doubt. I already told you you can vote me until Ver announces that a nuke has gone off. While you wait for the fireworks to go off, you can either be productive, or just sit there and chill, for all I care. Just stop blaring the anti-Incog horn. Its getting old.
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On May 20 2011 15:18 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2011 14:12 Fishball wrote:On May 20 2011 13:50 infinitestory wrote: I don't see any way to stop the America nuke, so there's no point keeping anything at all hidden. If you're town, and you didn't get a role, you should tell us what you went for; if you did get a role, please claim. America might be able to stop the nuke himself, but that wouldn't make sense if the Politician has bought his vote, because that would just void the Politician's power every time. Unless it was made that America can only stop the nuke if the target was his call, and not the Politician's. This would be a question for Ver to clarify. But in reality, it really doesn't matter, as Incognito would have to choose to stop nuke from hitting Chezinu, which I don't really see happening for many reasons. Whether or not America has the ability to stop the nuke, Chezinu is likely to die. So the maximum kills we can get during this day cycle is three. - Mr. Wiggles uses the King's lynch on Incognito. Incognito dies immediately. - Incognito's nuke lands on Chezinu at the end of day. - Town lynches one more at the end of day. Just some follow up. If what GMarshal says is true, and his list is not influenced by any other factors (Framer/Godfathers etc,), and also assuming he, himself, is not one of the Mafia on the list, we have two Mafia among the following five. - Caller - Incognito - Chezinu - Node - flamewheel If we do go with the route with maximum day kills, and the worst case scenario happens, as in both Chezinu/Incognito flipped Town, that leaves us with. - Caller - Node - flamewheel Now lets also assume that we used our Town lynch on a target outside of the check list (will elaborate later in this post), we will be on Night 2, and we have two Mafia among a list of three. At this point, we should have people use their investigative powers on the players remaining on the list instead of flat out killing them, based on the fact that we already missed twice from a list of five, and I'd rather not take anymore chances from the possibility that the list might be bad. If we don't find anything, we'll know this is a setup. Everything mentioned above only applies if neither Chezinu or Incognito flips red. Although I haven't cast my vote yet, from what I see in the voting thread right now, unless something dramatically comes up, the general consensus is that Incognito will be lynched. If this is the case, I rather have Mr. Wiggles use the King's lynch on Incognito right now. If he flips red, great; If he flips green, at least that will still give us 20 somewhat hours to discuss who we should be lynching next. Now back to why I think we should be using our Town lynch on someone else outside of the list. If Incognito flips red, it wouldn't be the best course of action to use another kill on the list, since Chezinu's death is inevitable and have yet to flip. I'd rather have us start exploring elsewhere. If Incognito flips green, the same logic applies, along with the situation we will be in mentioned up top; Chezinu has yet to flip, and we don't want to dig too deep base on the off-chance that the list might be bad, whether it's fake or is a setup by other factors. I also prefer Mr. Wiggles to use the King's lynch sooner than later, no matter who we decide to lynch. The sooner we're able to test the waters whether if a Politician exist in the game or not, the better. Yes, the Politician could choose to not use his power if he deems it is unnecessary or wants to lay low, but it's a still good indicator for Town, and it at least gives us a bit more time to prepare and discuss until the end of Day if a Politician do exist and used his power.
So in short, if the general consensus is to lynch Incognito, Mr. Wiggles should be the one pulling the trigger. It's either having the results now or results later, and it can only benefit us if we act now. Instead of discussing "if I flip red" or "if I flip green", can you at least TRY to analyze what I am? I mean, its not that difficult.
If Chezinu is town he should claim his numbers and role.
I propose the following. Mr. Wiggles dayvigs me. When I flip town, you lynch Ace. I messed up my day 1 strategy, and it has blown up into this big mess. And while I think Ace is town, he is totally off the right track. While I understand how you think my crazy actions and reckless day 1 play is anti-town, Ace's play is equally as bad. And his ego and thread influence are big enough to drive this town into the ground even if he isn't mafia. Its obvious Ace isn't playing in the best interests of town and is instead blowing up the thread to feed his ego and perpetuate his godlike identity. Hopefully once we're both dead and the dust clears, the atmosphere can be calm enough again that some others such as Foolishness/Flamewheel/Radfield can step it up and actually lead us somewhere.
I will be mostly gone tomorrow for a recording session so aside from perhaps a small comment here or there, I won't be saying much from here on out.
Final thoughts:
Based on yesterday's lynch, it seems really strange that the mafia would stack 2 on Kavdragon, especially since they knew he would flip green, and that it would be the most likely list to be vote checked, given that town now knows that Kavdragon is innocent, and that I am heavily suspected and am also on that list. Upon further reflection, I feel like the vote list has been tampered with (likely), or that GMarshal fabricated it to lead us on a witch hunt (unlikely). Regardless, it shouldn't be accepted as the word of god.
Out of the people on the list, the only person I really had suspicions about was Chezinu.
Node seems plenty town to me, because his early contributions in the role picking phase were more than just "I don't like GMarshal's plan". While he hasn't been particularly insightful, Node doesn't seem like he's planning his actions. He seems to be reacting to information naturally and spontaneously as it is uncovered, and he seems to at least be thinking about the game dynamics. This generally isn't a mafia trait. Mafia tend to want to act only when they have a plan an they know how their action will affect the course of the game. When there are a lot of unknown variables around, mafia is reluctant to take a position. As Caller said, mafia operate best in an environment where they are acting from a position of certainty while the town is acting from a position of doubt. Node seems to be genuinely wanting to contribute, even when there is almost perfect chaos in the thread, an environment where mafia really doesn't need to do anything.
Caller day 1 looks plenty townie. He isn't afraid to make accusations, and generally seems unafraid. It would be nice to see some more conviction from Caller, but for now there doesn't seem to be any pressing reason to suspect him.
GMarshal day 1 acts consistently with his XXXVII appearance as town. Immediately gets started on a plan and is intent on contributing. His accusations of KillerSOS and Dreamflower are weak, but don't say much otherwise. His reaction in the voting is more consistent with his town play where the only thing he is really guilty of is that he is easily swayed. But GMarshal does that as town too. Of course, there are many reasons why a mafia GMarshal would want to post a 2/6 vote check list, but I don't see it as a likely outcome. GMarshal really isn't a dominant player in the grand political scheme of things, so volunteering this kind of information seems like little gain, especially if you know that its very likely that Incognito will be lynched.
Flamewheel has been taking a nonchalant attitude this game. Seems to have been a good choice. Either way, he thinks logically and doesn’t seem to be afraid of anything. No eye popping content coming from him, but nothing suspicious either, as he provides logical and reasonable data.
Overall, the fact that 2/6 mafia showed up on my list is surprising to me. Im going to expect that I was framed or something, but don’t let that stop you from just vigging me today.
Barundar pops up to semi-defend Kavdragon (when he FOSes Caller for adding another suspect). A wreckless and unnecessary move given by the fact that Kavdragon was indeed town. Looking over at Radfield’s Barundar analysis again, I have to disagree. Barundar’s post does give an inconclusive opinion of me, but his points about me are legitimate and he does credit me for contributing key ideas. The kicker though, is the last sentence in that post, which is a question. Barundar asks “I guess my question to Foolishness and Ace is, how do you explain his contributions with regards to roles if he is mafia?” This indicates that Barundar isn’t trying to “subtly push the Incog lynch without being responsible for it”, as Radfield claims. Barundar doesn’t post as if he is trying to sway public opinion. The open endedness of his question suggests that rather than attempting to spread doubt, he is legitimately confused and wants to find an explanation to explain the incongruence between my wacky accusations and my other pro-town ideas. Post day 1, Barundar keeps up with showing town-aligned actions. Posts a list of suspects (after the vote, so as not to split the vote further), and posts a reasonable blues list along with opinions and an insight into how the lynch unfolded. Barundar is pretty town here.
Radfield has the most elaborate pre-day 1 plan. Although I disagree with a lot of it (including a long list of roles that are unreasonably and irrationally labeled as “anti-town”), this is legitimate contribution. Radfield isn’t afraid of throwing out ideas and tweaking/improving his plan in response to criticism. Radfield not taking the role he assigned himself is not suspicious at all. He even said himself that the top 6 players should outwardly “agree” to follow the plan even if they aren’t. Given that Ace hasn’t come out yelling and screaming that Radfield picked an obviously anti-town role, it’s pretty much a no-brainer that Radfield’s pick makes sense somehow. Ace says that Radfield’s accusation of Barundar makes him suspicious. Even assuming that Barundar is town, this accusation makes no sense. Townies are wrong all the time. The important thing to analyze is not the fact that Radfield accuses a townie, but how he does it. In this case, Radfield’s accusation is coupled with reasonable sounding analysis, and Radfield continues to defend his case after the initial accusation. If Radfield as mafia doesn’t make sense since he could’ve jumped on the Kavdragon train and pinned all the responsibility on me. Radfield’s attack on Barundar doesn’t look like a scum post trying to hide the fact that Radfield is mafia. It just seems like a misguided analysis. Radfield is transparent about his thought process, and consistently shows that he is thinking reasonably and isn’t sticking to hard and fast policies.
Infinitestory immediately jumps into the discussion on roles. His reactions to my unexplained voting are excellent. In response to my request that Flamewheel nuke GMarshal and my vote for Kurumi, infinitestory not only questions me, but lists 3 points of why my accusation was ludicrous and shows that he went through GMarshal and Kurumi’s posts and found nothing noteworthily suspicious. Not really something mafia would be naturally inclined to do. On night 1, his official accusation post of me is long. Didn’t read it, but its reasonable. Infinitestory had over 2 days to hop on my bandwagon, but it seems like he was legitimately confused and waiting for an explanation before coming to conclusions. It doesn’t seem like infinitestory is trying to hide anything here.
Tnkted has a few reasonable posts in the early game, suggesting that the top 5 spots be protected (not really that original, but ok), as well as a suggestion for inventions. His later post summing up his thoughts about me/Radfield/Ace and his suspects seems reasonable. He’s spontaneous and inquisitive. Nothing suspicious here.
Bumatlarge contributes early. A bit late out the gate and copies some stuff from Radfield though. After this, he posts a lurker list and votes one of them, which doesn’t say much, but isn’t a contribution. After this though, he still seems inquisitive and seems to be giving a genuine attempt to figure things out. More contribution from bum would be nice, but at this point no reason to suspect him.
Its getting late now and I don’t feel like doing writeups on everyone.
Townies Mr. Wiggles Kurumi Kitaman27 – leaning townie Dreamflower – leaning townie, but not too confident Eiii – leaning townie Fishball – leaning townie
Mafia OriginalName KillerSOS Chaoser Foolishness
In Limbo Deconduo
Hmm I only came up with 4 mafia candidates. Well if one of Chezinu/Deconduo make it in then its 5. I’m going to guess there’s 1 mole.
Anyway, good luck.
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After I die, please reread over my posts. I'm not completely insane.
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My confidence on Chaoser being red is 95%. Not like you'll trust me anymore, but just sayin'
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On May 21 2011 01:54 Caller wrote: My friends, due to a variety of circumstances I've been away from the game. I've seen that we have a nice votelist and I'm curious why we're not using it to get two free kills and potentially secure the rest of the list.
You should always clear the list. Always. That's why I suggest doing the following:
We have Flamewheel (whom I'm pretty sure is town, with his past behavior, with him being shot and all(which I think makes sense given how there was only one death last night)), GMarshal (whom could be a tricky bastard, but I haven't seen his play style enough), Me, Node, Incognito, and Chezinu. Two of us are mafia.
Best thing to do is to kill two people on that list. My commitment timewise has gotten lower than I would've liked, so I volunteer to have myself killed so you guys have more certainty on the rest of those people. Lynch me, or, given the time limit, it might be easier just to have Wiggles shoot me.
Then you can kill Node or Incognito (personally, I suspect Incog more than Node, even with the nuke, as I smell a desperation bus) and we have a situation where we will know 100% if GMarshal is telling the truth or not. I see no reason for him to lie about there being more mafia on the list, so clearly if neither Incog/Node nor Chez is mafia then GMarshal should be killed tonight. If one of them is mafia, though, then you kill the other person. Two mafia easy, and makes whoever's still alive as safe townies. By getting rid of me we remove the uncertainty. Don't worry about losing my role, it's not a big deal to lose.
TLDR: Kill Me, Kill Incog or Node. Might be easier just to have me king shot at this rate of voting, but whichever. Clears up list entirely. If neither Incog nor Chez are mafia, kill GMarshal tonight/tomorrow. Else, kill the other of Incog or Node that hasn't been killed yet. Either way, rest of list becomes clear and should be saturated with medic protection.
And well if anybody is lying about their role you kill em. Lynch All Liars and all. Don't forget.
This is a bad idea. There is a good chance I was framed and the list is bad. Other than that, if you're going to lynch me anyway, might as well wait to try indiscriminately shooting into the list to see if I flip red? (I know I'm not, but its stupid to kill 3 on the list)
On May 21 2011 02:21 Barundar wrote: Am I the only one annoyed at how full of themselves some of the veterans are? Caller asks to be killed because he doesn't have time to play, when there is a bunch of substitutes ready. Incognito thinks we should kill Ace even though he thinks Ace is town, after Incognito himself is dead. Foolishness and Ace has been gunning for Incognito all game long. And both Caller and Incognito thinks Flamewheel will somehow win for the town after they are dead.
1) We aren't killing people because they are on a list, we kill them because we think they are mafia. Everything else is a stupid waste of town KP. 2) We don't kill Ace just because he annoys Incognito. See above. 3) Veterans aren't going to win the game alone, this is not you vs. the world.
The reason why Ace should be killed is for political reasons. Yes, you try to kill scum. But when townies are obstructing reasonable discussion and blindly pushing their own agenda, you have to get rid of them simply to clear the atmosphere so you can start afresh and see the game through a new lens. In this game, I messed up in the beginning, and had to relook at the game all over again from a different perspective. You can't really force someone to do that, so when it seems like they will drive the town into the ground (yes, Ace holds enough sway in this town that people WILL listen to him), they need to be eliminated. A clear town with one less member is better than a confused and lost town with an extra member. This has nothing to do with Ace annoying me. If it did, I would've nuked Ace instead of Chezinu. Note how in Red Army Mafia (the bang bang one) I didn't eliminate Ace also even though he was being super obnoxious. He was pretty much doing the same thing he's doing now. Not sure if we should have killed him in retrospect, but in this game I'm feeling that Ace is off the right track.
On May 21 2011 03:11 Ace wrote: Well Chezinu is the obvious Scum for sure. He didn't even attempt to defend himself so that's 1 down.
I still think Incognito is the other Scum. I've already said it but I guess people expect some giant post which I won't do. It's very simple. Incognito has a role that was discussed earlier as a role a townie shouldn't have, and now he says "oh but Scum wouldn't be caught with this role, so it means I have to be town!" - um no. As I've always said Scum will do whatever they think furthers their win condition. If it means picking a role that shows up as Obvious Scum but they can WIFOM you to death and get away with it - they'll always pick it.
Secondly this is just too convenient. Like I said he immediately launched the nuke at Chezinu with barely any discussion about it. No one save dreamflower ever even brought up a case about him and then all of a sudden it's a "pro-town move to nuke Chezinu". Come on people read the thread because this is bad play at it's finest. If he really is pro-town then why didn't he wait for input from anyone else or even discuss the other suspects?
As for this lets lynch chaoser train it's the same thing as the Barundar train from yesterday. Shoddy reasoning and people not reading just going for the random lynch. Where is the analysis that chaoser is Scum?
Translation: "Ok, I admit that Chezinu is scum, but I still think Incognito tried to bus him! Here's why anything Incognito does indicates that he's mafia!" Convenience? No. I could've easily nuked Node or Caller or someone else. Or even Ace (because yes, that would further my win condition). The thing is, I know that the nuke lands simultaneously with the end of the lynch, so its not like nuking a red helps to give me credibility (nobody knows Chez's alignment until its too late to save myself.
GMarshal et al: stop trying to kill Node/Caller right now. There are higher priorities here.
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On May 21 2011 04:42 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2011 04:32 Incognito wrote:
The reason why Ace should be killed is for political reasons. Yes, you try to kill scum. But when townies are obstructing reasonable discussion and blindly pushing their own agenda, you have to get rid of them simply to clear the atmosphere so you can start afresh and see the game through a new lens. In this game, I messed up in the beginning, and had to relook at the game all over again from a different perspective. You can't really force someone to do that, so when it seems like they will drive the town into the ground (yes, Ace holds enough sway in this town that people WILL listen to him), they need to be eliminated. A clear town with one less member is better than a confused and lost town with an extra member. This has nothing to do with Ace annoying me. If it did, I would've nuked Ace instead of Chezinu. Note how in Red Army Mafia (the bang bang one) I didn't eliminate Ace also even though he was being super obnoxious. He was pretty much doing the same thing he's doing now. Not sure if we should have killed him in retrospect, but in this game I'm feeling that Ace is off the right track.
wut? From Red Army Mafia Show nested quote +On August 17 2009 09:22 Zato-1 wrote:On August 17 2009 08:14 coltrane wrote: who killed me?
I told yoou since day 1, dont trust ace. What? Ace was one of the biggest contributors to the Town. As the field marshal, the most likely way he could die was by getting lynched, so he did his best to stay on the Town's good side, by contributing against the mafia. No one suspects him, and the fewer mafia there are the smaller the chances all his bodyguards get killed. He never did the town any harm. Town won that game with my help. You must be confused about what happened.
No the other communist mafia. Where the thread title is in russian. Town lost that game, mostly because of chaos and people were shooting randomly and didn't know what to do. To me you were obviously town, but obnoxious nonetheless.
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On May 21 2011 05:45 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2011 05:24 Ace wrote:On May 21 2011 05:07 Radfield wrote:On May 21 2011 04:34 Ace wrote: @GMarshal: If we don't lynch Incognito then who from the remaining players on the list is the second Scum? We have to clear that out first. Does ANYONE else on that list appear Scummier than Incognito? If so, vote for them. I'm not trying to be a dink here, but I don't fully understand why we need to clear the list out. I understand we need to eventually, but why right away, right now? We have the information, so it can wait for us to deal with it until we're ready. Our ultimate goal is to kill the mafia, so if targeting players on the list doesn't get that done the best, then we let it lie for now. No? No one really has a anti-town read on either Caller or flame, GMarshal seems town aligned, Incog seems town to a large portion, and Node doesn't seem particularly scummy. It seems to me that waiting a night cycle and putting some investigations on those remaining 5 is a prudent course of action. If mafia want to shoot players off the list, great. Better them than us. Also, GMarshall, it's a bit ironic that you mention no one is coming to Incogs defense, because actually quite a few players are. Myself, Barundar, yourself, tnkted, dreamflower and maybe a couple others. Mind you, in my mind those are almost mostly 'lock-solid townies'. We clear it out because we know 2 out of 6 are scum. Why would we go another direction when we already know where to look? That makes no sense. Secondly a "large portion" of town hasn't claimed Incog is innocent, especially looking at the voting thread so that point is false. If you don't have an anti-town read on Caller or flame, believe GMashal and Incog are town, and that Node doesn't seem Scummy then who does that leave? Odds are even better because it's 2/5. So far Chaoser is the only one that sheds doubt upon the validity of the 2/5 (more due to mafia intervention with a framer than he doubts GMarshal). With all the nice KP roles for the mafia I find it hard to believe they would pick framer. Especially since if they wanted to hide themselves they'd be picking the GF roles instead of framer. As what Ace said before, we need to clean up the list now because the odds are better than trying to hunt in the town pool. I don't see how you can make an argument against this, especially since it's only day 2 (it's not like we got 5 days of analysis to try to pin down mafia). Anyone who tries to vote elsewhere or make analysis on other people than the 5 (6) in the list need to be looked at carefully once the list is sorted through. All you're doing at the moment is distracting the town. If we just focus on the list we can hopefully nail the 2 mafia without suffering town casualties. These paragraphs and paragraphs of analysis against myself, chaoser, KillerSOS are just cluttering up the town at the moment, and the people making these are mafia in my head because they are just trying to get the town off focus from the list. If you think I'm mafia, or chaoser is mafia, or whoever is not on the list, great. I'm all for throwing analysis around. But geez just wait until the list is cleared up and stop cluttering the thread. Summarize your suspicion in one sentence and focus on someone on the list. And before you jump on me for not doing this, I have wanted to kill Incog since yesterday, same reasons as Ace has stated, and that hasn't changed. If there still is a mafia on the list after Incog and Chez are dead I want to kill Node. Mr. analysis and scumhunting is content to go with "the odds" and chill on the sidelines. This is too funny.
On May 21 2011 05:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Incog's nuke also doesn't do too much to his credit. Let me say this: Killing Chezinu, like KillerSOS or other lurkers, is easy. It was an easy kill, because town was expressing suspicion of him and a desire to kill him with my king lynch. As well, he hasn't contributed much if anything to town so far, and was mostly dead weight. So, killing him doesn't take much thought to do.
That said, I don't think I'll kill Incog right now. I'd rather leave him alive, and at the mercy of the lynch.
Actually, I think you should vig me right now so that you get more information that comes out of the scramble of all the invalid ##Vote Incognito votes. Its pretty clear that you will get no information from my lynch. Its easy for mafia to jump on either side of the wagon. If you vig me, people will actually be forced to give reasons on why they are voting for the other suspects. And Ironically you want to kill KillerSOS, who you say is a easy. Why go for the easy kill? Do the right thing and kill me instead and force people to give reasons for their votes on the other suspects.
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