Going to hit the sack now, got school tomorrow, so won't be super active for around 18 hours.
TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 9
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Going to hit the sack now, got school tomorrow, so won't be super active for around 18 hours. | ||
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
He was townie in that game. | ||
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
redtooth Reason 1: Irish_Punk13. redtooth puts some random pressure on Irish_punk13, supposedly to get him talking. As soon as people start to take him seriously, he begins hardcore defending Irish. + Show Spoiler [original pressure question] + On May 04 2011 11:39 redtooth wrote: ^ Then please keep your comments out of thread to reduce clutter. Anyways, let us proceed with the game. Hey Irish_Punk13, I have a question for you: How good does it feel to be scum? Want me to explain how I figured it out so fast? Obvscumtell. Please be more discrete next time. I'll put my vote on as soon as the thread gets made. 1 scum down, 5 to go. As mentioned previously, this is not in itself a scummy quote, nor is the first defense of irish_punk13. What is scummy, however, is how he attacks chaoser for making his own analysis on Irish_Punk. His post is here. i've bolded the parts that stand out to me in red. (warning, it's very long) + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 14:48 redtooth wrote: + Show Spoiler [Post Write-Up Disclaimer] + : @ Chaoser – I just read through it again and it has sort of a sharp tone. It’s really late so I can’t be bothered to go back and make it nicer. Just know that it isn’t meant to be a personal attack on your character. Honestly I would have liked to stay quiet a little bit longer to see how it progressed but since you guys are demanding it, here goes. This essay brought to you by Redtooth, the person who got attacked the last time he made a longpost. Warning, very long: FoS: Chaoser Reason 1: The Irish Lynch Push Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. Obviously not many people have been convinced, even though the reasoning behind this is pretty depressing in and of itself. Back to his strategy. I initially thought that it was just a prolonged Minimalist Approach, something I assumed he was doing ever since he hopped onto my RVS vote. He seemed to have dropped it after a certain point (which was fine with me since it was getting nowhere) but Irish suddenly appeared again as top suspect in a later post making it very clear that Chaoser is still actively pursuing a lynch on Irish. Since Irish can’t be bothered to defend himself (more on that later), let’s examine Chaoser’s main arguments point-by-point on his behalf (I will paraphrase for the sake of brevity). First off, that’s not a scumtell. When two people with Ghost icons start attacking you while acting like they know what they’re doing, you pay attention. As a matter of fact, would it not have been more odd if he didn’t react the way he did? I mean who is comfortable with two “vets” pressing you off the bat, regardless of how much support there is to those presses? I’m curious as to what a normal, expected reaction would have been. I’ll admit, I was pretty surprised at how much traction Irish’s argument got. However, I wouldn’t call it a “chainsaw defense” as much as it is a desperate attempt to look like you’re scumhunting. Irish didn’t have many choices in this position as he was expected to “hunt scum” and produce new and interesting content. He couldn’t accuse himself (duh). On the other hand, you would have spun an accusation if he jumped on the Kurumi wagon. Besides those two, there literally is nothing to go off of up to that point. This scenario is somewhat less likely so I won’t hold Chaoser as accountable for these 2 points. See above. There is a sudden expectation on him to create novel contributions to the thread and this honestly seems like a very half-hearted attempt to fulfill those expectations. And you’re right it wasn’t an EBWODP. It was an EBWOP. It’s a picky counterargument to a nitpicky argument. What difference does it make? If anything, it perfectly fits his character of noobtown. You’ve made it very clear that he’s not going to slip your grasp without a serious defense. So why hasn’t he posted one? Because he’s uninterested. Scum is way more likely to fight back til the bitter end (see KillerSOS below) rather than just semi-abandoning a game. It’s not like he’s trying to lurk through it either since his bandwagon seemed to be the biggest at one point. Now you may be saying, “Hey redtooth! This looks more like a defense of Irish than a FoS on Chaoser.” Well the problem is that either Chaoser should have recognized these or he did recognize but chose to ignore them. Since he seems to be a solid player so far, I’m leaning towards the latter and that is the scummiest action exhibited by anybody in this game so far (essentially actively and knowingly promoting a lynch on obvtown). Everyone, consider the following questions as objectively as possible: Is it very possible that Irish is simply a noobtown? Yes Is it very possible that Irish’s “chainsaw defense” was actually just a noobtown analysis? Yes Is it very possible that Irish’s lack of defense is in his lack of interest in staying alive? Yes Is it very possible that Chaoser is tunneling, intentional or otherwise? Yes Reason 2: Active Lurking Town has been giving Chaoser a LOT of credit for “contributing so much”. However, upon closer examination a lot of them are either logistical posts (request to focus, poke on lurkers, answer to questions, etc), offtopic, or pushing one of his four FoS. They all look good but break them down and there is very little to be had. As shown by one of the posts quoted above, his attention seems to be spread over four people atm: Irish (primary), Kurumi, KillerSOS, Sinani. I’ve already stated why I think Irish isn’t realscum but let’s address the others as well. Kurumi is that guy. He is the prototypical hyperactive townie who expended all that energy and lost interest midway through game after being pressured. Honestly, when was the last time someone so blatantly scum actually flipped scum? It’s pretty shocking and discouraging to see Kurumi leading in votes. However, it’s a super easy bandwagon to contribute to since there is a wealth of incriminating behavior and an easy target for active lurking. The FoS on Sinani is based off of one sentence that could easily have been due to him simply not reading the thread with much detail (very much within the realm of possibility since there’s so much clutter). Another easy-to-press person that was pressed. Relatively recent development so we’ll see how it goes. KillerSOS is actually a great lead (he’s near the top of my list). However, it’s odd that both KillerSOS and Irish are on the list since they are handling the pressure in totally opposite manners (one totally passive, one full aggressive). Odd behavior isn’t always scum behavior, something he should know very well. ANOTHER easy-to-press person to press, regardless of the merit in the argument. I won’t FoS Killer for now since it wouldn’t make sense for one to be on both him and Chaoser at this point. And by having 4 people FoS’d this early, Chaoser’s also implying that he’s found over half the scum team 36 hours into the game. I don’t know if it is part of his gamestyle to just mass accuse but all it does is create unfocused chatter as attention is split between 10 suspects and lines of arguments get muddled or skimmed over. You’re a liar if you can say that it is easy to focus on what’s happening in the thread right now. Ultimately, Chaoser’s actions haven’t been enough to place a vote on him yet. But since he seems to be steadily increasing his voice in town, I suggest you guys definitely approach his statements more warily then has happened thus far. From what’s been said in the thread, it seems like he played pretty well as town the previous game but that trust shouldn’t necessarily be carried into this game. He may be a great town member but it is just as likely that he is scum. I mean it’s gotten so ridiculous that players are now making blanket threats against those who dare even challenge the great Chaoser. What’s even more surprising is nobody has even said anything about that challenge. That isn’t to say I FoS’d him just to get you guys to pay attention. I genuinely do think it is suspicious that a “vet” would pursue these weird lynches and FoS. Logistical posts are neutraltells (WHY WONT YOU GUYS UNDERSTAND THIS?) as are offtopic stuff. That leaves just what I perceive to be a real subtle case of active lurking. I’ll watch how it continues to play out and I suggest the rest of town do the same. He's not only shutting down analysis by FoSing the person making it, but is defending the accused player by calling him "obvtown." About the red sections: + Show Spoiler [conserving space] + + Show Spoiler + Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. "it's a bad argument, just stop." His reasons why do not compel me (more on that later) so this does not either. + Show Spoiler + Since Irish can’t be bothered to defend himself (more on that later), let’s examine Chaoser’s main arguments point-by-point on his behalf (I will paraphrase for the sake of brevity). Why exactly do you need to defend him? + Show Spoiler + I wouldn’t call it a “chainsaw defense” as much as it is a desperate attempt to look like you’re scumhunting. And this is not scummy because...? + Show Spoiler + The FoS on Sinani is based off of one sentence that could easily have been due to him simply not reading the thread with much detail (very much within the realm of possibility since there’s so much clutter). Another easy-to-press person that was pressed. Relatively recent development so we’ll see how it goes. Not innately suspicious, but that's the second scum he's defended. He was easy to push because he was acting scummy. + Show Spoiler + KillerSOS is actually a great lead (he’s near the top of my list) So, he defends two scum, FoS's two townies (they flipped blue, but he couldn't have known that) and defends one unknown (ABO). Things don't look too good, now do they? Reason 2: "Time to save the town." There are two major posts to focus on in this campaign of his. + Show Spoiler [For Xedat:] + redtooth decided that we all suck and that he needed to fix our posting + Show Spoiler + On May 07 2011 02:02 redtooth wrote: XXXIX Town Official Argument Standards:
Some of these rules are cool, like linking to previous posts, but most are just ridiculous. Cosponsering? PFoS's? 4 post limit? Wild statement at beginning? To me, this comes off as an attempt to appear pro-town. Evidently, it worked. redtooth hasn't been a suspicious character for the past two days in the eyes of the town. Now let's look at what happened after. Point 3: He's gone. Redtooth has had 4 posts in the past 30 pages, compared with his 100+ posts in the rest of the game. Please tell us what you're thinking, redtooth! His most recent comments indicate that he's confused, and has no clue what's going on. i call bullshit. redtooth is one of the vets in this game, and there are first game newbies who are keeping up fine. i simply don't believe that he's this confused. ##vote redtooth Some quick points that don't deserve their own sections: His day 2 analysis of Cthsazsa is almost entirely WifoM. + Show Spoiler [Cthsazsa analysis] + On May 08 2011 01:28 redtooth wrote: I know you guys don't care anymore but I'm still doing it. I, redtooth, have given much thought to the following argument and have relatively high confidence in its accuracy. Cthsazsa is SCUM because of two reasons: - Jackal died. - He hasn't been posting productively. The reason why we wait til Day to analyze is so we can do it with more information (instead of tunneling based on feelings). The aidnai and KillerSOS kills were perfectly within the realm of reason. The question is why Jackal died. Last night I was thinking to myself that if I were scum I would try to break one of the three quality focused presses (me on Chaoser, Chaoser on Irish, Jackal on Cthsazsa) regardless of the alignment of the target. The reason why the alignment shouldn't matter is because the subsequent argument is entirely WIFOM so it derails the town no matter which way it goes. However, I'm a bit surprised it was Jackal who died. Chaoser, when not pressing obvtowns, has been very protown looking almost to the point where he was Town God. I'm a polarizing figure but I hunt scum very hard. This gives scum the perfect opportunity since doctors aren't going to save us and they can knock one of us down before either gets any real traction. Also, it causes a WIFOM attack on the other ("See chaoser is green!" against me, "You killed redtooth because he was the only one pressing you!" against chaoser) so it's a double win. On the other hand, Jackal posted a list of five scum he thinks he's found already. Anybody who posts a list of the entire other team isn't worth paying attention to (although among all of the fullteam lists posted, that one actually made the most sense in terms of intra-team alliances). Also, Jackal hasn't even been a big voice in town anyways and hasn't dropped any PR tells. That means that the focus on Cthsazsa was broken for another reason since it clearly wasn't the optimal kill. The first and most obvious explanation is that the focus-break was an attempt to get heat off of one of the scumteam. This isn't too much of a stretch to say since he has beena cting pretty scummy so far. Let's look at the following: The problem isn't with what he posted. The problem is with when he posted this. Lynches aren't the only things with bandwagons and attacking my initiative is probably the safest bandwagon you could jump on. There was an overwhelming backlash but at this point everything that had to be said had already been said. Compare this behavior with DropBear, who I said is town. He posted ridiculous conspiracy theories about why I'm scum and he did it early and he did loud and he did it often. Cthsazsa, not really known for being too quiet and having a controlled ego, simply lurked in at the last second with a very subtle attack. If anything, something as polarizing as my initiative should have either had his full-fledged criticism or full-fledged defense. Something's not right here. Also, there's this post. Organized scum dole out various roles to the team. If you think I'm crazy, read "Knowing your strengths and knowing your goal" here. Cthsazsa is the prototypical "get-them-emotional" type of player. His defense wasn't substantive at all outside of "You're stupid so you're wrong", aka a non-defense. Also add to this the fact that he had never posted a substantive defense against Jackal as well outside of "you're being an idiot". KillerSOS exhibited this behavior to a certain extent (though not nearly as bad) and he was a PR. Townies don't make moves like this and if the scum was willing to risk a hit on Killer why weren't they risking a hit on Cthsazsa? For now, Cthsazsa is my #1 lynch target. I have others in mind but none as confident as this one. I will be on a bus ride 'til late night but if he chooses to continue ignoring the cases made against him, that's an easy kill. + Show Spoiler + On May 07 2011 03:50 redtooth wrote: Disregarding Other People's Analysis - Of all the clauses, this is the most important. We have absolutely 0 power in enforcing this standard within the rules of the game. Since we can't ask Node to impose it, it has to be voluntary and obviously that hasn't worked out so well so far. This is the ratification clause that gives the biggest incentive you can get (acceptance into discussions) in exchange for upholding our high standards. This is in defense of his rules. This is just about the worst idea I've ever heard. period. "he didn't follow my rules so I'm not going to pay attention to his post." Bad. Just plain bad and scummy. based off of this evidence, I conclude that redtooth is scum. ##Vote redtooth | ||
Varpulis
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Varpulis
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He's got the potential to be a very good townie, but lately he's been just the opposite. I don't like jaminz as a lynch today. I don't believe that he's scum, personally. | ||
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
I agree that impervious is somebody to be suspicious of. I don''t agree about jaminz, but my argument that he's town isn't solid, I admit that. | ||
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
I'm not suffering from indecision. I've made my choice. It's not just the changing activity levels either. Look through redtooth's last 10 posts. Is there any real content? those 10 posts have a timeline of almost 2 in-game days, and 5 real life days. If you're going to be unable to devote time to the game for that long, you should at least have the courtesy to tell the mod/other players about it. redtooth is experienced enough, he should know that. | ||
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
ilovejonn 2 orgolove impervious AirBladeOrange 1 DropBear orgolove 3 Forumite Xedat AirBladeOrange redtooth 1 Varpulis Currently, orgolove is to be lynched with three votes, but a shitload of people haven't voted yet, so it's too soon to tell how this lynch is going to go down. Players who haven't voted yet: jaminz elmizzt Mig redtooth kitaman27 chaos13 Vote and share your thoughts, guys! | ||
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On May 17 2011 11:37 Impervious wrote: Actually, it's not just because he's inactive - if I had to choose between jaminiz and redtooth for a lynch right now, I'd choose jaminiz. Why? Because I don't know what jaminiz can contribute, while I know that redtooth can deliver, and I'm not sure if either of them are actually mafia. There's no guarantee that redtooth will deliver, but lynching jaminiz would be the lesser of two evils. Also, yes, I am a supporter of policy or information lynches. While it would be nice to be able to peg the mafia in our next two lynches, I find that highly unlikely. So anything we can do that will get us closer to determining who they actually are in the case that we don't lynch correctly is definitely going to help us out later on. We're not in a lylo right now..... Do I need to start linking to jaminz making solid posts? Do your research. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=27#531 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=52#1028 Can redtooth deliver? Name a guy he's accused in this game that has flipped scum. If you can, than I definitely missed something. I don't count "eh, he could be scum" as accusing, by the way. Show me a solid analysis post of redtooth's that nails scum. | ||
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Impervious still hasn't shown me where redtooth's solid analysis on scum is, so I'm going to assume that he couldn't find any. I agree with Mig's lynch priority list, it seems quite accurate. My biggest scumreads right now are on redtooth and impervious. My suspicion of impervious, however, is largely based upon redtooth flipping scum, so I'm not advocating a lynch on impervious... yet. Let's lynch redtooth today and see where we stand. | ||
Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
orgolove 4 Forumite Xedat AirBladeOrange ilovejonn redtooth 5 Varpulis DropBear chaos13 Mig elmizzt ilovejonn 2 orgolove impervious impervious 1 kitaman27 Redtooth is to be lynched with 5 votes. The following people have yet to vote: jaminz redtooth I suggest narrowing it down to the top two vote getters. Everybody, pick a side. Who is scummier, orgolove or redtooth? The vote is so spread out that mafia can hide by voting for somebody who won't get lynched anyways. If you have an extremely compelling argument for why we should vote for somebody else, post it. If you're picking somebody to vote for based upon the current situation, I ask you to limit yourself to redtooth or orgolove. if you vote for somebody else, you'd better give a good reason. | ||
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Varpulis
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One of the big scumtells that I see from imp is his hardcore defense of redtooth. I hadn't considered the rest of the evidence against him when I wrote that post. I'm looking through his posts now. | ||
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Varpulis
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not changing my vote, just making an observation. Nothing wrong with kita's vote, that's all I'll say. I'm not going to push for a lynch on imp now though. redtooth is scum too, and I really don't like the idea of a last minute vote switch, so lynching him today is fine. Check Impervious' post history if you don't believe me. | ||
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