|
On May 09 2011 10:45 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 10:43 Eternalmisfit wrote: That makes no sense at all. You acknowledge the fact that your going to get more out of lynching Amber and that he's the better vote. Yet you're still voting for that other guy?
Note that I said if I had to choose between the two. I still prefer voting for Sandroba who I believe is scum. But, since no one is in agreement with me, pursuing that will go nowhere. Your vote on sandroba is pointless this late in the day. You should take a stand one way or another.
In that case, I am going to put my vote on Cthsasza.
|
On May 09 2011 11:23 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 11:21 kitaman27 wrote:On May 09 2011 11:20 chaoser wrote: I will explain after everything is settled No, you explain now. I'm not trusting you if you think you're going to hide something from us. What is there to not trust? If Amber flips red then we trust him. If he flips green then we vigi hit Chaoser.
I agree with this. If Amber flips Miller/Red, we trust him. If not, we do a vigi hit.
|
On May 09 2011 11:51 Varpulis wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 11:49 sinani206 wrote: Wait what? A six person swing vote? Aren't there six mafia? Wait, what? Chaoser claimed DT and we're making the logical decision to lynch the person he said came back mafia?
He is the guy who voted for kevconsim, the player who replaced Rising_phoenix and then asked to be replaced again.
Back on the last minute change, if chaoser is blue and Amber flips red, my entire analysis of the day has been garbage. I was quite certain that Sandroba and Chaoser were scum and working together.
|
Two blues and a townies mod-killed :| Though, Irish did flip red which means mafia is at 2 KP. Also, it means that our medics are still alive.
|
Going to bed as well. Waiting for the accusations (justified as I had terrible analysis/reads which scream scum in view of Amber flip during this day cycle) to fly towards me over the course of the night/next day.
I will read and respond to your arguments chaoser tomorrow morning, but I guess it will be hard to clear my name considering how active I was at going after Sandroba and defending Amber as well.
|
On May 09 2011 14:08 chaos13 wrote: I would like to propose a ridiculous theory, please tell me if it's possible and/or complete garbage. chaoser is scum. He knows the roles of his scumbuddies, and decides to announce DT and that he checked Amber last night, seeing that there was already a good number of votes for that player. Further, he gets his scum team to switch votes from Cthsazsa to Amber, and then declares that there must be a good number of scum hiding in the Cthsazsa votes. Even better, he is guaranteed that medics will waste themselves on protecting him every night, and he can claim roleblock and not be worried about not providing results for further days, and he can also rest comfortably knowing that if someone tries to accuse him of being scum, he can turn it on them and blame them for trying to accuse a DT.
At this point, it is extremely unlikely that Chaoser is scum. With Amber flip alone, there would still be a distant possibility that it was a rather high-level play by the scum. But, when you add the fact that Chaoser tunneled hard for a Irish lynch on day 1(who also flipped red), I would confidently place Chaoser as town.
I would also place Sandroba as likely town for similar reasons as Chaoser since he tunneled quite hard for an Amber lynch and was onto him before a lot of other people started voting for him. He also raised FoS on Irish on Day1 as well. It isn't as iron-clad as Chaoser's case but seems town to me.
At this point, I need to go back to the drawing board for my analysis since I am 0/3 (Kurumi, Amber, and Chaoser/Sandroba).
|
At this point, considering how badly the people think I am scum, I would recommend a vigi-hit on myself. I know that I have painted myself scum badly with my bad analysis yesterday and most people are taking for granted I am scum.
Even though I know I am town, here is why it is beneficial for the town to take a vigi-hit on me:
If I flip scum, the town gets a mafia kill regardless so it is a good deal for the town.
If I flip town, the town does not waste the next day trying to lynch me instead of focusing on other scum. Even as town, my reads have been bad and this flip won't be too detrimental on the town. Also, unless it is confirmed that I am town tonight, my analysis/posts will most likely be perceived as scum trying to distract attention on someone.
A DT check on me would not work since chaoser is almost guaranteed to be role-blocked. And, even if there is another DT, he shouldn't claim once he gets a town role-check on me since that would make him vulnerable to mafia kill the night after.
The only con would be losing the vigi-hit when I flip town but in place of that vigi-hit you get a chance to focus on finding scum and lynch mafia the upcoming day.
|
On May 10 2011 08:40 sandroba wrote: Eternal, what you did there only contributed to me thinking you are scum, because if you are town, wasting a vig hit on you is definitively anti-town. However if you are scum, asking for a vig hit and providing this kind of explanation may lead some to believe that you are trying to contribute and reconsider their thoughts. If you want to prove your worth to the town the best way to do it is to catch scum. If I'm alive tomorrow I'll take a look at your posts and see if somehow I was wrong about you.
It is a catch-22 situation for me. If I posted analysis on someone, I would be called scum for trying to divert attention. If I don't post, I am scum for lurking or becoming inactive after active for last few days. If I respond to why I am not scum, I will be perceived as scum for being too defensive. Even the above post that I made can be thought of as scummy.
Regardless of the above, if I am alive tomorrow, I still plan to be active and hunt for scum.
|
Interesting, that Chaoser flipped Veteran. Also, it means that the medics didn't protect Chaoser. Since, even a single medic protection should have saved him.
|
Lots of posting during the night. I will catch up with the reading and post my thoughts soon.
|
Firstly, here's a list of who I think to be town and why.
Sandroba He, along with Chaoser, were responsible for tunneling Amber and keeping the focus on him till his lynch. If he had backed off at the last moment, it might have been likely that Amber would not have lynched. Thus, it is unlikely that his pressure on Amber was a bus either. He is strongly town in my books
Kenpachi Vig claim Unless, someone else claims, he is town also.
Kitaman 1. He was right on his Irish vote on Day1. 2. He called for a day vig-hit on Amber towards the end of Day2 (Amber was actually trailing by one or two votes at that point) These two events suggest that he might be town (the caveat being the above might be bussing of mafia)
Voting trends on Amber and its analysis It is possible to extract some information on voting trends on Amber. The votes on Amber are split into two categories: the ones before the DT claim and the ones after the DT claim. This analysis presupposes that both Amber and Cthsazsa are not scum (which is why I don't claim all 8 early voters of Amber are definite town reads).
Before the DT claim, it was a close voting race going on between Amber and Cthsazsa. Till the votes became 8-8, every vote for Cthsazsa was followed by a vote for Amber (not the other way round). Thus, the first 8 people who voted on Amber, in fact, were making Amber much more likely to be lynched. If Cthsazsa is not scum, it is unlikely that they scum will bus on Amber when he is trailing a townie (and a lot of people are convinced that Cthsazsa is scum).
Thus, the vote patterns on Amber suggest the first 8 people who voted on Amber are likely to be town. Any votes for Amber after the DT claim need to be discarded from analysis since at that point, it was a sure-shot Amber lynch and scum can vote on Amber to drop suspicion off them.
|
@ Sandroba
Yes, I am claiming to be a Vanilla townie and I think that DropBear is town as well since he claimed the same. The keyword being Vanilla. It should be possible for other townies to confirm this rather easily. I won't post the role PM since:
[1] I have PM'd Node to confirm whether posting role PM (similar to Sleeper Cell Mafia) is allowed here or not. [2] I believe even if it is allowed to post role PMs, it should be saved for LYLO situation to ascertain scum (esp since it is likely that we have no more DTs).
In Hindsight, the post arguing a vigi-hit on myself was stupid as I did not think it could be perceived in the way you analyzed. It just shows my inexperience with the game.
|
On May 10 2011 22:47 chaos13 wrote: Eternalmisfit, I would like to point out that the scum team is being coached by some very experienced players. Coagulation is a scary good player, and the chances that the basic town role is called "Vanilla Townie" is extremely high. He would know this. There are far better breadcrumbs you could have chosen than that. Why not a phrase that was within the role PM rather than a generic name? The word vanilla is a weak defense of your status as townie.
I posted the EXACT reasons why I did not go beyond that. I also have dropped sufficient hints in that post that people can figure out for themselves.
Also, I want to make it clear that I am not asking anyone else to role-claim. I role-claimed since it seems like the town is going on a wild goose chase after me and scum can just hide through the day. As I can see, it has reached a point where anything I say/do is being perceived as scummy, I am not going to bother to post any defense of myself beyond this, and will just focus on analyzing and hunting scum.
|
Regarding sinani I just went through his posts. He is sending mixed signals to me. He has very few posts that have actual content. Most of his posts are just fluff. The posts that have content are incoherent.
His first analysis Analysis of Kurumi
Between these two posts, he voted for Kurumi. He doesn't include Kurumi's analysis initially but then later comes up and says that he thinks Kurumi and analytical and agressive. Up til this point, there has been nothing to show that Kurumi was analytical in nature. In fact, the only person to make a similar claim at that point of time was Irish, who flipped red. This indicates possible scummy behavior.
Then, he drops gems like these ones which make no sense to me: Kevconsim Vote
Unless he had not been reading the thread at all, he should have known why kevconsim was not posting (he was not playing). In fact, I point out the fact in the post just after that but don't get a response.
Second gem He makes this post about a six man vote swing on Amber after Chaoser claimed DT on the previous page and the entire discussion between the DT claim and his post has been on that topic.
Based on this, it can be concluded either he does not read the thread at all but in that case why would he bother to vote/post/play at all. Also, he is on near both the day posts and has the time to respond to GMarshal's troll posts. The other possibility is he is lurking scum that is barely posting enough and acting as a noob townie.
At this point, I would think the scum likelihood is higher (since most disinterested townies have been mod-killed by now), but I am not too confident since I have been wrong in my judgment the last couple of days.
----------------
I am heading to work at this point but I will be back later to post my thoughts on other people during the course of the day.
|
Jackal is famed for his tunnelling, which could easily be manipulated or at least attempt to manipulate it before killing him (if I was mafia, I know that I’d want to keep him alive as a townie, unless he had a blue role). And since KillerSOS seemed to be a suspicious player, as a member of the mafia, I can’t see it being a stretch to actually push for his lynch at a later date….. And I did not get a vibe from him that he was blue.
KillerSoS slipped out that he was blue in one of his posts which was prominently noted by jaminz in the post following it. His kill doesn't come as a surprise.
I was confident on Day2 that Jackal was killed coz he caught on the defensive behavior shown by Sandroba (since I was confident that Sandroba was scum). However, the later events of the day showed my theory to be wrong and I am puzzled as to why Jackal was killed.
EternalMisfit - Consistently defending Amber[Light], attacking Cthsazsa, Sandroba, Chaoser and Redtooth. Very focused during day2. Stopped the attack once Amber[Light] flipped.
Once Amber flipped red and Chaoser did a DT claim, it was obvious that Chaoser was blue and also highly probably that Sandroba was town. Thus, it blowed holes in my theory that Sandroba and Chaoser were scum and acting in co-ordination. Why would I keep going after Sandroba after my analysis was proven to be wrong?
As to the other two, I don't think I attacked Redtooth. I was suspicious that Cthsazsa was scum but I stated clearly that I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba.
@EternalMisfit Both your linked posts against sinani206 have to do with him not reading the thread enough, they don´t prove he´s scum.
It doesn't prove that he is scum but his voting/posting has been suspicious. If he is not reading the thread, how does he know that who all are inactive? You will need to at-least skim the thread to figure that out. Inactivity alone put 5 people on the radar which he listed so why did he go specifically for kevconsim.
|
EBWOP: Also, for a dis-interested townie, it seems rather suspicious that he is on exactly at the time of day post on both days and missing at the night posts.
|
@ Sandroba
Node said no to a full PM role reveal.
From the OP
Mafia Godfather You are the nefarious leader of the mafia. The mafia chooses the godfather from amongst themselves on night 1. The godfather chooses a role to appear as when role checked. Once chosen, the false role cannot be changed.
Sum can always have a GF since they elect him among themselves. Unless the scum team decided to not elect a GF (which is unlikely), there is bound to be a GF.
|
On May 11 2011 06:58 Cthsazsa wrote: He knew Amber was mafia, so he insisted on keeping his vote on Sandroba. Knowing he would look suspicious if he kept his vote on Sandroba (A lynch on him obv wasn't going to happen), and not wanting to vote on his fellow scum, He uses the scapegoat, i.e. me.
Firstly, regarding your other post, I stated clearly that I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba as I was convinced that he was scum more than you. However, a few people stated towards the end of the day that I should take a stand between the two of you and thus I voted for you.
If I was scum and knew Amber was scum, why wouldn't I have voted for Cthsazsa long before that point in order to increase the lead between Amber and Cthsazsa instead of focusing on Sandroba (it was clear that he was not going to be voted at some time before that).
As for ilovejonn's accusations and anlaysis. Point 1: Non-important as it was just A FoS Point 2: I cant even count how many PbP analysis had been on Day1. Interesting you pick apart each of my posts the same way I did for Kurumi and then claim I am scum for that. Point 3: The strategy of voting a person likely to be mod-killed was something I proposed in Surpirsingly normal mini mafia in case the town didnt reach a consensus well and it worked out decently there. It is the same logic I applied there. Point 4: I voted for Kurumi since he posts seem to focus on derailing town discussion and not because his posts were bad in grammer/hard to follow. Also, there was no content in his spam posting Point 5: I was of the opinion Irish is a reasonable lynch target as well. If you see the post I was referring to, redtooth made a specific argument for Irish and thus, I was replying in context of Irish. I still believed Kurumi was a better lynch target at that point. Point 6: I posted later that I got busy at work and thus will be unable to make the post. It is interesting that someone who claims about lower activity due to real life stuff use the same argument to paint someone else as scum. Point 7: Spreadsheet - If making a spreadsheet showing who voted/FoS/defended whom makes me scummy, I don't know what to respond that with.
Also, at this point, I would recommend that if someone is putting a vote on someone (be it me or someone else), please make a case or argument as to why you are voting for that person. Despite me being wrong or right, I have always posted as to why I voted for someone unlike a lot of people who either made bandwagon votes or voted w/o posting any explanation at all.
In any case, quite a few people are missing from thread completely today and I would like to hear their opinion/take on the discussion. Them being: VarpuliS, Kenpachi, jaminz, Conversion, and sinani.
|
On May 11 2011 22:37 sandroba wrote: Easy there forumite. There's a chance orgolove is scum indeed, but he was one of the first to vote for Amber on his lynch. This gets him +towine points in my eyes. There are much more obvious scum waiting to be lynched. We can save the discussion on orgolove for tomorrow. After kitaman27's post I reread Imprevious analysis on kita. At the very end I found something that made me think. It was regarding jackal's death. Why would mafia kill jackal? Jackal calling me scum was one of the last things he did, along with tunneling cthsazsa. This should help scum (read EternalMisfit) to post bullshit analysis on me. EM had his analysis of me ready (he says so on the analysis itself) just to discredit me as soon as I posted my analysis on Amber[Light]. If he thought I was scum indeed there was no point in waiting until I posted my analysis. Trust me, EM is scum.
I had analysis ready on you because I thought you were scum and I wanted to wait for you to post your analysis first since I was hoping that you might drop some clues of being scum in that post.
In any case, I won't have much time to be on today since it is my birthday and I have got stuff planned. I might have time to check the thread a few more times during the day but it is not guaranteed. I am going to post a vote on sinani in case I am not back on by the end of the day.
|
On May 12 2011 06:52 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2011 06:40 Varpulis wrote: Fine, it's not OMGUS. It's still joining a bandwagon without giving a real reason. "There's some evidence and stuff" is not a reason, at least not a good one. None of them had a really good reason to vote for the other, except "better you than me". EM said "I´ll vote for sinani206 unless I come back before night" sinani206 said "It looks like there is most evidence on EM"
Interesting that you say so since I posted my reasons here. First analysis
Then, I also clarified when you raised a question here and here: 1 2
Also, you read those posts very well since you questioned me on the initial analysis (to which I replied) and said I was building a case against sinani206 here: Forumite's post
Whether you agree with my analysis or not, I believe I have posted my suspicions more coherently than Sinani's agruments against me.
I also find it suspicious that you choose to ignore what you clearly read and commented on and summarized my vote as
EM said "I´ll vote for sinani206 unless I come back before night"
I am not 100% convinced that he's mafia but among the people I suspect, he is the most likely one.
I am going to my reads on different players as well since it is quite likely I will end up getting lynched. Also, I won't be on again till much later.
Town reads Sandroba - for obvious reasons at this point.
Kenpachi - for obvious reasons at this point.
DropBear - Townie claim, general posting, and tying himself so closely with myself. At this point, if I flipped red, he is nearly #1 target for next lynch.
scum reads Sinani - voting patterns suggest that he is either disinterested townie or scum. It is unlikely that he is disinterested townie based on my above analysis but it is not a 100% read.
Ilovejonn - If you leave aside the fact that he raised suspicion on me (which is why he is not being considered at the moment), he has shown rather scummy behavior i.e. suggesting he always gets town, claimed blue read on Amber (would suggest asking him why he thought so), weak FoS on me on Day2 start, trying to gain town cred based on a dead man's read.
Conversion and Elmizzit - Textbook examples of posting w/o contributing. They also seem to be good at making themselves not noticeable. In fact, I don't recall anyone having analyzed their posting.
Suspicious reads - not necessarily scummy jaminz - Missing from thread in general. Vote 1 was inexplicable since he knew Killer was Blue but still voted for him. Vote 2 was accompanied by contradictory reasons. He votes for Amber early so that is why I don't get a clear scum read but that might have been an attempt to bus Amber.
redtooth - sudden decline in activity. Lot of people have been wrong in their votes (hell, I am a perfect example for it) but very few have shown such a sudden decline in activity.
orgolove - He never explained why he switched his vote from Redtooth->Chaoser->Kurumi on Day1. His Day2 vote was on Amber which I why I am hesistant on this as a scum read.
Null Reads Kitaman VarpuliS Impervious - mostly due to lack of sufficient posts to analyze Mig
I am confused on my reads about Forumite, AirBladeOrange, Cthsasza, and Chaos13 but it is mostly a combination of mixed signals and gut feelings so I am not posting them here.
|
|
|
|