EPT
shouldn't have played this game during AP weeks.Have fun guys!
TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 102
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Conversion
United States3308 Posts
shouldn't have played this game during AP weeks.Have fun guys! | ||
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Impervious
Canada4212 Posts
Holy crap. A few days ago, I figured we'd find 1 scum out of lynching EM, sinani, and ilj. From the look of it, we may be able to get 2! | ||
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DropBear
Australia4386 Posts
 Firstly, welcome Xedat! Second, I am almost 100% ready to clear ilovejonn. The self-vote was strange and a bad idea but I can't really imagine a scenario in which a mafia would do this. Sorry for voting for you! Third, orgolove, shouldn't NOT voting for sinani206 give people red points on Day 4? I can't see how ilovejonn can be mafia after this. The next point I want to address is AirbladeOrange. My analysis of him was heavily based around him being tied to ilovejonn. This lynch makes AO look much much better. On the other hand, Mafia are in dire straits now. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we have another 3 mislynches up our sleeves, and that's assuming there aren't any veterans left in which case it could be more. In XXXVIII when our Mafia team was totally fucked, AO stayed on until the last possible moment. It's a trait he's shown before. I'm going to look over him again but my suspicions have dropped drastically following today's lynch. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4386 Posts
Your activity has absolutely plummeted since Day 2 when chaoser named 4/6 of the mafia. You better get in here and explain yourself if you survive the night. He has, if my counting skills are correct, 94 posts on days 1 and 2. He had 4 posts on Day 3 and 4 combined. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4386 Posts
).What do people think about a mass roleclaim once Day 5 begins? Too early? | ||
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ilovejonn
Canada2548 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On May 15 2011 14:59 DropBear wrote: OK I'm back guys. Good work on the lynch! Big up to chaoser as well Firstly, welcome Xedat! Second, I am almost 100% ready to clear ilovejonn. The self-vote was strange and a bad idea but I can't really imagine a scenario in which a mafia would do this. Sorry for voting for you! Third, orgolove, shouldn't NOT voting for sinani206 give people red points on Day 4? I can't see how ilovejonn can be mafia after this. The next point I want to address is AirbladeOrange. My analysis of him was heavily based around him being tied to ilovejonn. This lynch makes AO look much much better. On the other hand, Mafia are in dire straits now. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we have another 3 mislynches up our sleeves, and that's assuming there aren't any veterans left in which case it could be more. In XXXVIII when our Mafia team was totally fucked, AO stayed on until the last possible moment. It's a trait he's shown before. I'm going to look over him again but my suspicions have dropped drastically following today's lynch. 1. ilovejonn only started his bus after it became clear most of the town was onto two of the remaining three reds. His mindset - "if we're gonna lose one anyway, let it be the newb and not me." I can't believe you just think that post clears him. 2. You have to understand who has or doesn't have the information. Reds already knew that sinani is going to be lynched anyway. It's the "switch" that you see once the lynch is apparent that matters. Whether or not they first voted for a red is not as important. In fact, that type of analysis falls easy prey to reds voting for each other early on then switching just to confuse us. That is partially counted for the +1 that people receive each time their vote turns out to be a vote for an eventual confirmed green. ilovejonn has been posting and sending accusations everywhere. I strongly push for his lynch. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4386 Posts
On May 15 2011 15:20 Mig wrote: The only blue roles that might be left are veterans in which case it would obviously be retarded for them to claim. So yea definitely absolutely no point in role claiming. If this is the case and the only blues left are veterans, why wouldn't they want to claim? A) If they did it unopposed, noone would lynch them. B) Mafia having only 1 KP means they would have to kill other people. That way the pool of suspicious people shrinks. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4386 Posts
On May 15 2011 15:49 orgolove wrote: 1. ilovejonn only started his bus after it became clear most of the town was onto two of the remaining three reds. His mindset - "if we're gonna lose one anyway, let it be the newb and not me." I can't believe you just think that post clears him. 2. You have to understand who has or doesn't have the information. Reds already knew that sinani is going to be lynched anyway. It's the "switch" that you see once the lynch is apparent that matters. Whether or not they first voted for a red is not as important. In fact, that type of analysis falls easy prey to reds voting for each other early on then switching just to confuse us. That is partially counted for the +1 that people receive each time their vote turns out to be a vote for an eventual confirmed green. ilovejonn has been posting and sending accusations everywhere. I strongly push for his lynch. Ok this makes sense, ilovejonn could have bussed sinani206. So you think ilovejonn. Who else? The godfather is still out there somewhere. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On May 15 2011 16:31 DropBear wrote: If this is the case and the only blues left are veterans, why wouldn't they want to claim? A) If they did it unopposed, noone would lynch them. B) Mafia having only 1 KP means they would have to kill other people. That way the pool of suspicious people shrinks. How is anyone going to oppose them? What is to stop mafia from claiming veteran? There is no way we can know how many veterans are in this game so it would be incredibly easy for mafia to claim them. And we want mafia to hit the veterans..... This should be obvious. If they hit the vets they lose one of their kp. If we announce who our vets are the mafia will know which players they should avoid killing. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4386 Posts
On May 15 2011 16:35 Mig wrote: How is anyone going to oppose them? What is to stop mafia from claiming veteran? There is no way we can know how many veterans are in this game so it would be incredibly easy for mafia to claim them. And we want mafia to hit the veterans..... This should be obvious. If they hit the vets they lose one of their kp. If we announce who our vets are the mafia will know which players they should avoid killing. I guess it would be easy for Mafia to claim Vet haha. I didn't even think of that. Ok you've convinced me. No mass roleclaim | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Redtooth - He originally pushed extremely hard that Cth was mafia and tried to link him to chaoser as mafia as well. His voting has been completely useless. Day1 he voted for chaoser when he obviously wasn't going to be lynched. Day 2 he voted for Cth before switching to amber after the dt claim. Day3 he voted for himself pointlessly. Day 4 he was the very last person to vote for sinani and he didn't even bother posting in the thread about it. I guess he might just be a demoralized townie after every single thing hes done has been incorrect but I feel like he might have decided to just lurk after all his plans fell through to try and avoid attention. I also think hes a good candidate for GF. Orgolove - Voting he voted for kurumi day 1. Day 2 voted amber which makes him look a bit better. Day 3 voted for ilj pointlessly even tho he was around and could have cast the deciding tiebreaker voter. Day 4 once again voted ilj and not scum sinani. Has overall been very unhelpful to the town and his comments about gmarshals last day post are suspicious. Gmarshal has been trolling the entire game it should have been very obvious his post was fake I think orgolove reacted to it just so he could use it as a possible defense (which he did the very next page). Also since he is one of the few remaining veteran players hes a good candidate for GF. Forumite - pushed the sinani lynch harder than anyone. This alone should pretty much make him auto town. Varpulis - pushed the lynch for sinani very hard early on. He flip flopped a little on day4 but still ended up voting for sinani. chaos13 - has been on the correct lynch everyday except for the first. Voted for amber and sinani twice. And he pushed a lot for sinani in the last couple days Unsure Kita- Has been on the right side of almost every lynch and I think most of the things he has said have been very helpful to the town. The only reason I don't put him under green is because he is one of the last vets who I think could possibly be the gf. Still I would definitely lean towards him being town. DropBear- Has been on the wrong side of several lynches. He also tried to start up a ilj bandwagon/defended sinani today and was on a sandroba bandwagon for awhile. But he did vote for sinani late in day3 which he def gets big +town pts for. Also I think its clear he is at least putting a lot of effort into attempting to analyze and generate discussion. There was also the slip where he said he pmd ver for coaching advice. ilovejonn- has been on the wrong side of every lynch except for today. Sinani seemed to try and get a bandwagon started against him which gives him some town pts, but it still possible that he was mafia and they were just trying to get him town credit. He is another possible gf candidate. Leaning towards red. Impervious- Haven't had the time to look through his posts but sandroba felt strongly he was mafia so has to be suspected. We have the best case against jaminz because of his voting and the strong analysis kita did of him. He should be our lynch target for today. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4386 Posts
Last game when I was mafia I PM'd Foolishness, the town coach, for help on several occasions. From: Foolishness Subject: Re: Town help XXXVIII Date: 4/14/11 11:43 You're reading too much into it. BC wouldn't do something like that on purpose if DrH was mafia because he knows someone might want to read into it. Do you find it likely that both elected officials are mafia? That's a really gutsy mafia play; having two of their prominent members run for office (and managing to get in as well). I find it extremely likely that at least one is town. Not to mention both of them think the other is mafia....don't think the mafia would do that if they had both offices. Original Message From DropBear: Hi, I wanted some advice. I made a post about bloody cobbler's timing quibble in night 2 and it seems to have been ignored. Basically DocH and Marsh were the only close candidates just before midnight then there was a sudden rush onto Flamewheel. BC makes a post regarding how he wants time to be called earlier, which would effectively stop Flamewheel getting in and leave Doc and Marsh in power. He is mafia coach after all so it looked suss to me. You know the guy better than I do, is there something behind this or am I reading too much into it? It looks to me that both of them are likely red from their posts anyway but this kind of convinced me. Thanks! If I am Mafia in this game I could easily have written that I PM'd Ver in an attempt to get town cred. If you're analysing me you should do it on my behaviour and voting not on the PMing post. | ||
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Xedat
Germany358 Posts
just read my PM that I am replacing Conversion. This is my first time playing a forum mafia game. I will catch up reading first. I guess I should post an analysis on someone to contribute? | ||
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Xedat
Germany358 Posts
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DropBear
Australia4386 Posts
On May 15 2011 19:42 Xedat wrote: Or is it like last night that we should not post analysis so that the mafia cannot choose someone? Welcome  I don't really follow the rule personally, but the general consensus has been to stay quiet at night. If you think you've found something interesting, post it just before the day post so Mafia doesn't have time to change their kill on it. | ||
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Xedat
Germany358 Posts
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
jaminz, redtooth, orgolove jaminz made an extremely suspicious vote switch that saved sinani206 redtooth's activity levels have plummeted. He is voting without posting. No excuse for a veteran player to do that. orgolove has been pushing for the wrong people's lynch. He could just be mistaken. I had a game like that recently - I FoS'ed nearly every town player, and none of the scum ones. Of the three, I am the least sure of him, but perhaps someone else has found evidence against him that i haven't. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Welcome to the game. If you'd like a quick summary: The game began with a bandwagon lynch on Kurumi, a townie with erratic and confusing posting. Nobody had any real idea who the mafia were, but Irish_Punk13 was FoS'd by redtooth. Night one we lost A detective, a night vigi, and a townie to night kills. Day two was exciting. We were set on lynching Cthsazsa all day, until chaoser claimed dt with a red check on Amber[LighT]. chaoser was actually a veteran. 4 pllayers were modkilled. Beneather and Lyter, both day vigilantes, Irish_Punk13, a mafia goon, and Takuna. Night two the scumteam stacked on chaoser, we learned that we have no medics, and Kenpachi, a night vigilante, hit GGQ, a mafia roleblocker. Day three was a close lynch between EternalMisfit and sinani206. ilovejonn was brought up as a suspect. We ended up lynching EternalMisfit. Night three we lost sandroba, a very pro-town player, and Cthsazsa. Before he died, sandroba brought up a possible connection between sinani206 and Impervious. Day 4 we were torn between lynching ilovejonn and sinani206. We ended up lynching sinani206. And that brings us to today. a number of vets have been quiet and anti-town lately, and ilovejonn's scumminess is still up for debate. There are 2 mafia and 13 townies remaining. | ||
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