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TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 101

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 15 2011 03:28 GMT
#2001
Oh wow. wtf?

... That was uh.. completely unexpected. wtf....
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 15 2011 03:29 GMT
#2002
Holy shit. um. ok. wow. ...... Lets see....
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 15 2011 03:30 GMT
#2003
hm. I'll update the spreadsheet asap. Sinai was in the bottom half. I completely did not expect this. Shit...
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
May 15 2011 03:33 GMT
#2004
Conversion has been replaced by Xedat.

I will be requesting a ban for Conversion in the banlist thread, we just happened to get a replacement offer this day cycle.
whole lies with a half smile
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
May 15 2011 03:33 GMT
#2005
May I now state that town is not utterly awful? This time it was a lynch that was unaffected by roleclaims.

With sinani flipping scum, I'm pretty confident that ilovejonn isn't. I'm also quite suspicious that orgolove is. He could very well be the godfather. I think it's time to look at the experienced players who haven't been active and town friendly lately.

That list includes, but is not limited to:
redtooth
orgolove
jaminz


thoughts? Any more names you think should go on that list?
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 15 2011 03:34 GMT
#2006
... But real quick. Notice how ilovejonn is once again one of the last voters who switched to the red.

And I want to point out in the beginning of day 3, that he tried to start another bandwagon against Cthsazsa, who came in second place to Amber during that closely-fought lynch.


I still think ilovejonn is red. And I hope my data, when I finish the analysis, will show as such.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
May 15 2011 03:37 GMT
#2007
On May 15 2011 12:34 orgolove wrote:
... But real quick. Notice how ilovejonn is once again one of the last voters who switched to the red.

And I want to point out in the beginning of day 3, that he tried to start another bandwagon against Cthsazsa, who came in second place to Amber during that closely-fought lynch.


I still think ilovejonn is red. And I hope my data, when I finish the analysis, will show as such.

I hope you respect this town and not give up!
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 15 2011 03:37 GMT
#2008
Btw varpulis, if I really was red, then I would've known that sinai was a red. Given that, would I really have posted the following, right after the first fake day post? I'd be proven immediately wrong, in fact, within 5 minutes. Would I really have purposefully put in that position?

On May 15 2011 12:01 orgolove wrote:
Fun. As I said. You will all eat your words when the game is over. Sigh. So pathetic.
On May 15 2011 12:02 orgolove wrote:
Wait wtf that's not the real post?...
On May 15 2011 12:03 orgolove wrote:
Anyway. The post won't change anything. You just lynched a green. And the reds know it, and are probably laughing their asses off right now in their IRC or quicktopic.







I attribute my difficulty in distinguishing sinani as red to having only 2 days of data. I'm sure when I finish updating the spreadsheet, things will become a lot more clearer.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 15 2011 03:38 GMT
#2009
And yes, I do respect the town a lot. Thanks for getting the red. This is huge - they now only have just 1 KP.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
May 15 2011 03:42 GMT
#2010
On May 15 2011 12:37 orgolove wrote:
Btw varpulis, if I really was red, then I would've known that sinai was a red. Given that, would I really have posted the following, right after the first fake day post? I'd be proven immediately wrong, in fact, within 5 minutes. Would I really have purposefully put in that position?

Show nested quote +
On May 15 2011 12:01 orgolove wrote:
Fun. As I said. You will all eat your words when the game is over. Sigh. So pathetic.
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2011 12:02 orgolove wrote:
Wait wtf that's not the real post?...
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2011 12:03 orgolove wrote:
Anyway. The post won't change anything. You just lynched a green. And the reds know it, and are probably laughing their asses off right now in their IRC or quicktopic.

WifoM.

As for your other point, I'll concede you that you didn't have access to sufficient data, so I'll drop the data shtick for now.
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
ilovejonn
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Canada2548 Posts
May 15 2011 03:50 GMT
#2011
bet he's still gonna stick to his data sheet and go with whoever has the highest points after tonight. because vote analysis is the best and only analysis am I right orgolove?
Snowflakes in January, Heart warm like February, I wouldn't ordinarily..
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
May 15 2011 03:55 GMT
#2012
Alright, I'm off to sleep. Busy day tomorrow, going to post a list-o'-doom right before the day post, like yesterday.
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 15 2011 03:55 GMT
#2013
On May 15 2011 12:50 ilovejonn wrote:
bet he's still gonna stick to his data sheet and go with whoever has the highest points after tonight. because vote analysis is the best and only analysis am I right orgolove?


Nah, I'm still sticking my vote on you, scum.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
May 15 2011 03:55 GMT
#2014
EBWODP: *last night*
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 15 2011 04:08 GMT
#2015
Node, you forgot to remove sandroba from the player roster list
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 15 2011 04:19 GMT
#2016
On May 15 2011 12:33 Varpulis wrote:
May I now state that town is not utterly awful? This time it was a lynch that was unaffected by roleclaims.

With sinani flipping scum, I'm pretty confident that ilovejonn isn't. I'm also quite suspicious that orgolove is. He could very well be the godfather. I think it's time to look at the experienced players who haven't been active and town friendly lately.

That list includes, but is not limited to:
redtooth
orgolove
jaminz


thoughts? Any more names you think should go on that list?


Impervious, if we are to believe Sandroba's last posts were correct.
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
May 15 2011 04:32 GMT
#2017
On May 15 2011 13:08 orgolove wrote:
Node, you forgot to remove sandroba from the player roster list


Fixed !
whole lies with a half smile
sinani206
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States1959 Posts
May 15 2011 04:55 GMT
#2018
bye-bye sadly i want here during the last few hours.

i wouldve done much better
literally everything is wifom just shut the fuck up
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 15 2011 05:14 GMT
#2019
I am going to write up my list of suspects/town tonight since I will be gone again all tomorrow.

But first I want to give big props to chaoser who correctly called irish,amber, sinani and GGQ as mafia. What a monster.
Moderator
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 15 2011 05:19 GMT
#2020
Here's the spreadsheet with updated vote results.

http://uploadmirrors.com/download/LFRNBCMK/TL_mafia_xxxix_day_4.xlsx


First, the criteria again:
[image loading]


Day 3 was another really important vote, in hindsight, as sinani206 was revealed to be a red.
[image loading]

[image loading]


Day 4 didn't bring too many changes. Though the vote was close at the start of 12 hours, it was more because the reds didn't have the manpower to switch the lynch, rather than there being actually two contested results. And the data shows that.

[image loading]

[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +

[image loading]
How did it feel, having to choose between two of your own? lololol


Of course, in red's point of view, it'd be better to lose the new player whose every action had to be directed, and save the vet who could, given a miracle, survive... (ha)

Here's the summary.
[image loading]


I have more confidence in this, as it compiles 4 days of data, instead of just 2. But again, because I revealed the methodology before this, it is not completely impossible that the reds tried to coordinate and manipulate the procedures. I'll see about tweaking the factors the next time I play mafia.

To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds.

I strongly push for ilovejonn's lynch.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
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