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United States4714 Posts
I will add I think GGQ is almost certainly not mafia.
He posted this right after GM posted his dt claim.
GGQ Canada. April 14 2011 14:37. Posts 1677 PM Profile Blog Report Quote #
Why I have a very hard time believing any DT claim in this game:
In the OP, it states that not every role is guaranteed to be in the game. I believe that the DT is one role that is not in this game. My logic is simple; there's no millers. The miller role has been replaced by the nosy neighbour; a townie that shows up at deaths to throw doubt on tracker/watcher reports. I think that a DT with no miller is too powerful, so we probably only have trackers/watchers as our information roles. So I have a tough time believing GMarshal is a DT.
His argument made a lot of sense and for how important the DT role claim gambit was for the mafia I can't imagine any of them trying to cast doubt on it right after.
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United States4714 Posts
I have a hard time believing DrH is mafia. If mafia had pardoner and mayor they have so much power. I can't really see GM breaking down and suiciding if the mafia are in control.
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Do we have a new target for the vig to hit since coag is dead now? LSB?
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United States4714 Posts
There are 5 mafia not 3 left right?
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Also I think there are only 20 town remaining.
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United States4714 Posts
Oh no you still have aidnai listed so actually there are only 19 town left 
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Was anyone roleblocked last night? I believe barundar is the only one who said he was roleblocked n1.
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Wait what sense does it make that barundar was roleblocked again? If we assume they only have 1 roleblock since only 1 person claimed night one why would they not use it on m0nster who claimed tracker?
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Well 1 possibility to consider is that red and monster are both mafia. And so they just have monster make a claim that seems like a newbie mistake and the only person who could verify it is red.
But obviously there is still the possibility that they just forgot about monster and messed up. Will have to see who monster claims he tracked.
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United States4714 Posts
On April 16 2011 15:15 chaoser wrote:
Ok so either we're missing a KP or GGQ didn't shoot
It was probably one of the assassins who wasnt sure who they should shoot. Or you and GGQ both shot LSB.
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United States4714 Posts
I am inclined to believe that either barundar or monster is lying about being role blocked. If you look at the people who died night 2 (jackal, GGQ, LSB, LW, Aidnai, Mr wiggles) all of them had posted multiple times after n1 and they were experienced players so I can't imagine they wouldn't have mentioned they were RBd. So the only scenarios left, where there are 2 Rbers, would be night1 the mafia Rbd some random lurker who still hasn't bothered to tell everyone he was RBd (seems very unlikely) or one of their Rbers just forgot to do it night1 (also very very unlikely). I am not sure yet just which of them I really think is mafia but I am leaning towards monster being the scum.
I also think there is a very strong case to lynch jaminz. He has only posted 4 times in the thread and he hasn't given his opinion on a single issue. If you look at the only other mafia game hes played previously (haunted mafia) you can see he played very differently.
He was town that game and he posted 24 total times which isn't much but clearly much much more than this game, and more importantly is he gave an opinion in like 90% of his posts. Here are some of his posts from that game.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 15 2010 02:57 jaminz wrote:I did a quick runthrough again, and didn't see any other mistakes, though there definitely may be some. So sorry for the mistake zerroth. Here's the updated list: Post Count, as of page 79 Note: These numbers may be slightly off due to the search function not always displaying exactly how many posts a person has per thread (this is usually only off if a person has a very high number of posts in the thread). I checked a few times, and these were the numbers I found. Players with Strikes through their names are dead. Notes in parentheses. + Show Spoiler +
1. deconduo 9
2. ghrur 1 (new player, replaced d3_crescentia)
3. coagulation 106
4. jodogohoo 46
5. orgolove 101
6. pandain 37
7. southrawrea 8
8. Divinek 11 (new player, replaced CKSide)
9. KtheZ 19
10. oddo123 12
11. bumatlarge 15
12. quickstriker 14
13. Therick 0 (but has voted twice)
14. michaelthe 0 new player, replaced kitaman27)
15. zerroth 9
16. NB 80
17. TheMunkey 0 (but has voted once)
18. YummyBlaBla 19
19. BrownBear 3 (new player, replaced kuja900)
20. Lexpar 21
21. ~OpZ~ 4
22. SiNiquity 7
23. jaminz 16 (17 if you include this one)
24. Lucktar 5
25. AirbladeOrange 4 (didn't have forum access until late)
26. Masq 5 (lynched Day1)
27. kenpachi 1
28. youngminii 57
29. HeavOnEarth 1
30. kingjames01 8
31. Neos 0 (but has voted twice)
32. ZaplinG 0 (new player, replaced goldfishs)
33. Flicky 3
34. Artanis[Xp] 1 (new player, replaced Zeraghul)
35. chesshaha 0 (didn't have forum access until late)
36. KhrisKruel 12 (didn't have forum access until late)
37. spydR 18
38. Hyperbola 3
39. MetalFace 6
40. l0st_romantic 2
41. Aeres 14
42. ShmotZ 24
43. Hittegods 1
44. Veldril 25
45. grandmoose 2
46. LastArgument 6
47. jcarlsoniv 62
48. annul 37
49. Iankill 0 (didn't have forum access until late)
50. seRaPh 65
51. aztrorisk 98
52. Glasse 42
53. glurio 1 (new player, replaced Bill Murray)
54. LSB 31
55. Kpyolysis32 43
56. Nemesis 15
57. Yogy 1
58. Node 5 (didn't have forum access until late)
59. RebirthOfLeGenD 2 (new player, replaced mptj)
60. thegilaboy 32
61. CubEdIn 36
In order from most posts to least: + Show Spoiler +
3. coagulation 106
5. orgolove 101
51. aztrorisk 98
16. NB 80
50. seRaPh 65
47. jcarlsoniv 62
28. youngminii 57
4. jodogohoo 46
55. Kpyolysis32 43
52. Glasse 42
48. annul 37
6. pandain 37
61. CubEdIn 36
60. thegilaboy 32
54. LSB 31
44. Veldril 25
42. ShmotZ 24
20. Lexpar 21
9. KtheZ 19
18. YummyBlaBla 19
23. jaminz 16 (17 if you include this one)
37. spydR 18
11. bumatlarge 15
56. Nemesis 15
41. Aeres 14
12. quickstriker 14
8. Divinek 11 (new player, replaced CKSide)
36. KhrisKruel 12 (didn't have forum access until late)
10. oddo123 12
1. deconduo 9
15. zerroth 9
30. kingjames01 8
7. southrawrea 8
22. SiNiquity 7
46. LastArgument 6
39. MetalFace 6
24. Lucktar 5
26. Masq 5 (Lynched Day 1)
58. Node 5 (didn't have forum access until late)
25. AirbladeOrange 4 (didn't have forum access until late)
21. ~OpZ~ 4
19. BrownBear 3 (new player, replaced kuja900)
33. Flicky 3
38. Hyperbola 3
45. grandmoose 2
40. l0st_romantic 2
59. RebirthOfLeGenD 2 (new player, replaced mptj)
34. Artanis[Xp] 1 (new player, replaced Zeraghul)
2. ghrur 1 (new player, replaced d3_crescentia)
53. glurio 1 (new player, replaced Bill Murray)
29. HeavOnEarth 1
43. Hittegods 1
27. kenpachi 1
57. Yogy 1
35. chesshaha 0 (didn't have forum access until late)
49. Iankill 0 (didn't have forum access until late)
14. michaelthe 0 new player, replaced kitaman27)
31. Neos 0 (but has voted twice)
17. TheMunkey 0 (but has voted once)
13. Therick 0 (but has voted twice)
32. ZaplinG 0 (new player, replaced goldfishs)
Top Posters: + Show Spoiler +
3. coagulation 106
5. orgolove 101
51. aztrorisk 98
16. NB 80
50. seRaPh 65
47. jcarlsoniv 62
28. youngminii 57
Players with 0 posts but who have voted: + Show Spoiler +
31. Neos 0 (but has voted twice)
17. TheMunkey 0 (but has voted once)
13. Therick 0 (but has voted twice)
+ Show Spoiler +On October 14 2010 18:39 jaminz wrote:
Now that I've done all that.....
I think it's pretty suspicious that 3 players have no posts in this thread, but have each voted. One of which (Therick) has alread cast a vote (for Veldril) for Day 2. I'm not saying they are for sure scum, but we should keep an eye on them. Lying low is one thing, not posting at all and still voting is another.
With respect to the whole Veldril thing, I think that we haven't done a good enough job analyzing the clues & people's reactions yet to make a definite decision. I think we should look back at the Day 1 clues, as the one that implicated Masq was very obvious. Maybe the other clues were just as obvious, and so we should look to who they point to (one of them pointing to Veldril, among others).
I'm open to discussion about anything. I hope the post count helps, because damn did it take a long time.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 12 2010 08:27 jaminz wrote:
After rereading everything, I would suggest that the ghost not choose to save aztorisk. I'm starting to believe that he may not be the jack-o-lantern, and instead might be scum trying to stir up confusion among the townies.
However, even if he is the jack-o-lantern, then there is a chance the vampire brute will choose to kill him, thinking that the ghost may be protecting him. Because the ghost is so valuable, I would suggest taking the risk of only losing 1 (or maybe 0) blues, and ensure that the ghost isn't taken out. If he is the jack-o-lantern, then unless a witch chooses to curse him he will be able to place one bomb anyway. I just don't think its worth the risk of either protecting scum, or having the ghost die to the vampire brute. What do you guys think?
+ Show Spoiler +On October 12 2010 05:32 jaminz wrote:
After finally sifting through the entire thread (we added 15 pages in 14 hours? lol) I think I've narrowed down my choices to these people:
Veldril
jodogohoo
Bill Murray
Masq
Masq is probably the most obvious choice there, so I don't think I have to explain my reasoning as I think everyone who has read the thread will understand.
jodogohoo is sort of a gut/impulse choice, as I feel like he's said just enough so that people won't see him as too much of a lurker, but not enough so that he will be heavily accused.
As for Veldril and Bill Murray, I'm mostly lumping them together because of their posting tendencies. This is my first game of Mafia (though I've played in real life), but from reading the few strategy guides/previous threads, it seems like one of the most important roles of scum is to stir up confusion and/or create arguments. It seems Veldril and Bill Murray have done a pretty good job of doing this and honestly, even if they are townies I wouldn't mind seeing them go since it would lead to fewer posts haha.
You can see his posting style as town in that game was completely different. He actually tried to contribute and help when he could and he had no problem giving opinions on people. So for now unless we get more information on the barundar/monster rb situation I am going to vote for jaminz.
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United States4714 Posts
Serjei was another new player who didn't try and push any mafia agendas and was red.
I think that it is likely that at least 2-3 of the lurkers are mafia.
My top mafia lurker ranking
1. jaminez - just because the play style is such a change from his previous game where he was a townie
2. m0nsterchef - for the role blocking claim along with him not responding when people asked who he tracked last night.
3 kevconsim- basically just for kitas analysis
4 after that I think its pretty murky but I guess I would put Robellicose 4th
As for people who I think are likely not mafia.
Airbladeorange seems likely town just because GM was targeting him so hard. And considering how inactive milky and serjei were if GM was going to try and target a mafia I think he would have picked them.
Trancestorm- My reasoning for him being likely town is when I read back through his posts I saw him trying to make an argument for lynching serjei. It was around when people were debating coags lynch so it could have been a way to try and divert attention but I think if that were the mafias plan then GM would have been arguing for serjei as well.
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United States4714 Posts
Changing to kevcon, mostly because of AOs post.
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United States4714 Posts
Latrommi, robellicose, jaminz, m0nster only people left who haven't voted.
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United States4714 Posts
Ah ok so only 3 possible mod kills atm. So game should still be in ok shape.
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United States4714 Posts
Well after AOs post I am pretty confident you are town jaminz. So I wouldn't worry too much about it now.
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United States4714 Posts
I don't know if I should say this but I guess I will since I assume there's a good chance mafia picked up on it also.
On April 18 2011 10:46 AirbladeOrange wrote:
I will just say one more thing about my earlier post. I have a very strong reason to believe jaminz is not red and I'm sticking to it. I'm not as sure that conversion is red as much as I believe jaminz to be town. Conversion just seems the scummiest person to me at this point. I would also be okay with a kev lynch.
Key point I want everyone to read: jaminz is not red.
Maybe I am wrong here but I kind of thought this was AO basically saying he dt checked jaminz without actually role claiming.
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United States4714 Posts
gg guys was definitely fun. Kita, chaoser, bum, barundar all played really well. Also I want to say sorry to GGQ 2nd night I debated for a long long time on who I should protect and I almost saved him thinking they might be targeting the less obvious people. But ended up just going the safe route and protecting bum.
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EPT
