EPTTL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 17
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On April 23 2011 08:19 jaminz wrote: There's no other way that kitaman could have died last night right? I saw Airblade visit him, and there was no one else who did so. I couldn't think of any other reason that kitaman would have died, so Airblade must be mafia. good enough for me lol | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On April 23 2011 08:53 AirbladeOrange wrote: Tracker. I thought people suspected me as being one but I didn't want to come out and say it and die outright like all the other blues. I'm 95% sure you are town and my mind is being blown at what is happening. I can only visit homes if people I follow do. And I didn't go anywhere last night so I have no idea what is going on. so jaminz is town/blue to you, but he saw you visit kita...but you were roleblocked? lol...what a bad lie. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
AirbladeOrange -> Town -> Mafia TranceStorm -> Very Inactive DarthThienAn -> very Inactive Conversion -> very Inactive ilovejonn If AO flips green, we lynch jaminz, simple as that, though i doubt mafia would pull something retarded as a 1 for 1 trade this late into the game when they're in such a hole. If AO flips red then we work down that list. We got a 50/50 chance to hit mafia, I say we go conversion->Trancestorm->DTA->ilovejohn If AO flips red, mafia will be at 1 KP per night, there's no way they're going to win, we have like 5 more days till LYLO supposing we don't lynch another mafia during that time. If by the time we lynch DTA and we haven't gotten a single mafia yet, we can start looking at DrH though I'm VERY sure he's not mafia. He would have needed to have planned out everything since before even the Coag Debacle which, if he did, fucking golf clap. lynch AO, see what the result is, then move forward people | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On April 24 2011 03:15 DoctorHelvetica wrote: because you're mafia and the roleblocker is dead and you're faking it to be consistent with your scumbuddy barundar's claims I really don't think barundar is mafia and that the last two are in these four players TranceStorm -> Very Inactive DarthThienAn -> very Inactive Conversion -> very Inactive ilovejonn I'd say it's conversion and TS. TS was against the proct election, using VERY poor logic and fearmongering while being extremely wishy washy There is always the possibility that he is a mafia pretending to be an assassin in order to win himself an elected position on the merits of the arguments he listed earlier. Fear of proct being mafia being spread here... But I'm not particularly inclined to this view because as of right now because that strategy would be exceedingly risky at the very beginning of the game. Backs out here... Of course, what should happen if he were to be elected, and both bodyguards were to die? The chances are slim of course, but the fact is that he could switch sides at critical moments (i.e. when he is one of the deciding votes between the mafia and town). Does it again... Oh and lastly, I don't think he would be able to 'ally with mafia' like he claims if he weren't elected since another assassin would take him out to further their own chances at victory. Backs out again... Then he is passive aggressive on DrH's election Personally, I think that Dr. H has been the most town to me because of his aggressive approach. I don't think any mafia would want to make that aggressive of a start at the beginning of a game - they'd rather appear more passive to the town. and then Dr. H's accusations seem a bit erratic and scattergun and may cause trouble later down the road Notice how he's not ok with Proct's potential problems down the road but he's totally ok with DrH's problems down the road. Hmmm Later on he goes back on his words about proct and writes Hmmm Proact, I haven't fully read through your entire post and I trust you as pro-town but I have a question. All of a sudden he trusts proct to be pro-town. And then he posts this gem during the time when every other mafia we've lynched thus far was trying to bus Serejai so that GM and Coag issue could be shelved for the day. On April 15 2011 08:31 TranceStorm wrote: I just got back to this thread, and jesus christ I have missed so much. Personally, I feel that Serejai is definitely mafia because of his almost complete lack of comprehension in his posts. If you read his comments in some other threads, they seem rational and well thought-out as in he was definitely trying to understand the situation at hand. Here, however, he doesn't act like he's actively trying to understand whats going on and blatantly makes statements that defy logic What motivation would he have for doing so if he were town? From my cursory glance at the thread, no one has seemed to step up and deny that Serejai is probably a mafia, but everyone seems to glide over the issue to focus on other lynch targets. I think this is currently misguided, we can't know for certain if any of those people are mafia or not so we should wait for a few more night actions. On the other hand, we have an almost guaranteed mafia in the form of Serejai. The likelihood that Serejai is mafia is far greater than that of any of the other players, each of whom seems to have lots of supporters and detractors. Later on he again switches his position on Proct Hmm. I guess that takes away from the validity of my points, but I still don't trust that Proact is the actual DT since there have been slip-ups. He then continues to be inactive, going along with the town on every vote afterwards. At this point, I think, in regards to the GM/Coag debacle, the mafia was pretty much forced to bus both of them and hoped to hide in the shadows of the inactives while slowly trying to kill the blues and finally hit the big town players (Me, bodyguards, DrH). We lynch AO today, if he flips red, we lynch Conversion or TranceStorm tomorrow. I'm sure at least one of them is mafia and if there's still one mafia left after lynching both, we move onto DarthThienAn -> very Inactive ilovejohn | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On April 24 2011 05:09 Conversion wrote: If AO is mafia, and I as well, why would he tunnel me so hard and try to bus me when there's four mafia left? It doesn't make sense, does it? Bussing is a very possible strategy since they've been pretty much doing it all game. At this point though, it doesn't matter. We have enough town players to deal with the mafia because they'll only have 1 KP left. We lynch AO, we lynch you or TS, and then we either win or lynch DTA/ilovejohn and we should have won the game at that point. Mafia can choose to draw it out for 5 more day/night cycles but it's not going to do much. TranceStorm -> Very Inactive DarthThienAn -> very Inactive Conversion -> very Inactive ilovejonn 2 of 4 in here. We have a lot of days left till LYLO, especially since DrH is also a vet. It's pretty much GG if AO flips red at this point. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
TranceStorm -> Very Inactive DarthThienAn -> very Inactive Conversion -> very Inactive ilovejonn 2 of 4 in here. We have a lot of days left till LYLO, especially since DrH is also a vet. It's pretty much GG if AO flips red at this point. Should read like that, not other way...TL Crashing x_x | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On April 24 2011 06:27 Barundar wrote: I'd add kenpachi to your list chaoser, but more importantly mafia has to chop through a bunch of townies, starting with jaminz, bodyguards, drh, you, and then the rest of us, before they even have a shot at winning. And we kill them at same rate. So really, if AO flips red, mafia should just concede so the next games can start... Kenpachi finally made the Townie list because DropBear tried so damn hard to get him lynched. AO is an exemption since it was early game but with 4 mafia members left, they're not going to tunnel bus their own member, especially since at the time DropBear wasn't being looked at at all. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On April 24 2011 06:42 Barundar wrote: Fair enough. Same logic works for conversion with regards to AO though :/ I just said it's different because that was early game where it was ok. Not to mention that we really don't know what GM would have done had he been elected. I was pretty vocal in getting LSB/ON lynched. GM could have very well said ok, I'll listen to you. This was a calculated tunnel by DropBear when there were only 4 mafia left. There were no reasons for him to tunnel bus a fellow mafia at all. There wasn't even any pressure on him at the time | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On April 24 2011 07:16 Barundar wrote: I'm not talking about AO. I'm talking about conversion. Me and AO was the only ones voting for conversion before Jaminz claimed, and AO voted for him yesterday as well. I doubt he would bus conversion at this stage of the game. hmm...this is true...let me look back on things then | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
Because if he was mafia then he would have had to plan for the GM/Coag debacle way before it began. His actions show that he's 90% not mafia. On the off chance we're in the 10% that he is, it's so out there that the game deserves to be won by mafia if that's the case. Either way, we have like 7-8 days to work through and there's only 2 mafia left. I looked over the conversion/AO thing and ok, if AO flips red, we can move on to TranceStorm -> Very Inactive DarthThienAn -> very Inactive ilovejonn with Conversion coming in as a Day 4 lynch. There's 16 townies so even if we mislynch all of them and 4 of us die assuming no more vets/medics, then it'll still be 8 townies to 2 and we can out vote them even if DrH was a mafia. Either way, it's very very unlikely for it. Basically town can't lose at this point unless somehow DrH and I are the mafia. DUHH DUHHH DUHHHHHHHHHHHH At this point it's pretty GG for them. Should just concede and not waste time -_- | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On April 24 2011 12:48 GMarshal wrote: Coag wanted me to lynch you if I got mayor and shoot you night one otherwise, I thought it a poor idea. As far as allying with the assassin, I couldn't understand how any townie in his right mind could even think of it, it was just mindboggling that an assassin got *any* support, at all. I'd rather have an assassin in office and have control over his KP/check over a red. Simple as that | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On April 24 2011 12:56 GMarshal wrote: And this is where I disagree, you have no control over his KP or his check, he is going to use them however he damn well pleases, what are you going to do if he dosn't follow your orders? lynch him? Thats a wasted town kp which you *need* to use on scum, not on 100% guaranteed not mafia. Thats why I thought it was utter madness , you just ensured 3 kp are going to play out with no way of controlling them, more likely than not they'll end up hitting lurking blues. And I'm saying he would never do that because it would lead straight to his lynch aka him losing the game. Town knows he needs to survive to win and he knows he needs to help town to survive. If he's running and telling town he's assassin then we have mutual ambitions to a certain extent. He wants to win assassin game and so wouldn't betray town since we'd lynch him. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
My entire plan of action was killed by Kita’s watching on M0nsterchef and follow-up claim. I should have fought against bum or DocH but I went after chaoser. I dunno why you went after me out of all people. I'm pretty sure at that point Mr and Bum were pretty much cleared as townie and DrH was only suspected based on the fact that IF he was mafia, the mafia actually had a chance of winning so people were asking around about that. Also, I don't think the vigis were that weak at all, they cleared the table of all our suspects, making the next few day's lynches completely free for new suspects. Had the vigis not shot then we probably would have wasted a few days on LSB and whatnot | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
Serejai, I am disappointed you left. You were active and funny. Your trolling the thread was very calculated and effective and was actually helping distract matters. I am still unaware of what it is you actually did to earn that warning but I’m going to assume from what your sub-out post that you posted game info outside the game. I can understand your disappointment but you did break the rules and you really left us in the lurch by bailing. You will probably get a ban out of this and may not even come back at all. It makes me sad because it could have been avoided. What happened was that he posted in another thread insinuating that he was blue and that the reason he was playing the way he was was because he didn't know how to use his role. DrH immediately told him to not say anymore since talking about game info out of the game is against the rules. Had Serejai actually been blue then it would have just been a newbie slip. But because he was red, it was a calculated move and to lie outside the game thread is a little bullshit. People are going to be assuming you're not going to be lying about the game in such a way. It was underhanded at best and totally deserves a modkill/ban though I doubt he'll be coming back. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
2. Mafia cannot stand up to an organized town. I'd like to know about mafia's night kill strategy. It seems to me that the day 3/4/5 NKs were extremely weak. Major town analysts got away surviving in favor of killing a few no no names, some of who where suspicious. In this type of game, you do not let major town analysts get away with goading the town, even if they are momentarily incorrect about their suspects. The thing is, when a major town analyst is worng, mafia generally won't oppose them strongly. But its hard to pop up in strong opposition when that analyst suddenly changes his mind and votes for scum. Its really uncomfortable for mafia to pop their heads up to defend against a correct accusation when they haven't been doing so all along. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
Disagree with your "people who supported FW should say they are bad at mafia". His analysis of Coag was spot on after review and at that point it didn't matter what his claim was or wasn't. The play ended up working out in our favor anyway, much better than a DrH lynch would have panned out. The way the pardoner operated in this setup (how it was supposed to that is) made the pardoner a renamed prince of darkness role Using the pardon in the situation was the most pro town thing he could do When is prince of darkness ever a pro-town role? I'd rather have a lynch over a pardon, especially if the lynch lead to a mafia dead. | ||
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