TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 169

Since there isn’t much to talk about during night, I thought I would run some numbers.

8. Kenpachi
9. ilovejonn
11.chaoser
15.TranceStorm
18.urashimakt
22.The_Roist
23.kitaman27
24.Lanaia//bumatlarge
25.jaminz
26.DarthThienAn
27.DoctorHelvetica
29.AirbladeOrange
30.MetalFace
31.Barundar
33.redFF//Zorkmid
39.Conversion

16 players remaining total. 3 mafia.

This is the worst case scenario, with no medic saves and only mislynches:

Night 4: 13 vs 3 – current situation
Day 5: 11 vs 3 - Mislynch
Night 5: 10 vs 3
Day 6: 8 vs 3 – MYLO if DrH is mafia
Night 6: 7 vs 3
Day 7: 5 vs 3 - LYLO if DrH is dead/lieing about being a veteran
Night 7: 4 vs 3
Day 8: 2 vs 3 – LYLO if DrH is veteran.


What this means is:
Basicly if DrH is town, mafia have to gun for him. Otherwise he is able to win the game alone. All the mafia has been pretty confident about their chances though, so I’m a little worried here.

If we mislynch tomorrow, we can effectively mislynch DrH at no cost for extra information.

If we hit 1 more mafia, town KP=mafia KP, making our odds pretty good. In that case we could lynch DrH to get 2 extra days in case he is mafia.

Thoughts?