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TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 115

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Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
April 14 2011 16:25 GMT
#2281
@Jackal: You have solid argumentation and clear opinions so far. I guess the moment you aren't obvious town we should lynch you asap . I agree with your argument, my counter argument would be: But why did he pick out coag? He must believe in his case. That makes it worth listening to. I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on that one.
Bartundar
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
April 14 2011 16:34 GMT
#2282
On April 15 2011 01:25 Barundar wrote:
@Jackal: You have solid argumentation and clear opinions so far. I guess the moment you aren't obvious town we should lynch you asap . I agree with your argument, my counter argument would be: But why did he pick out coag? He must believe in his case. That makes it worth listening to. I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on that one.


-Protac is an assassin
-He fake claimed DT
-He picked a person he thought was Red (maybe Black) to analyze
-He was hoping that if he flipped Red, he'd get medic protection because he's a "Detective"
-Everyone called bull-shit on his lie
-His analysis on Coag still stands, but his claim doesn't strengthen it
-If you're just voting for coag because of the claim, you're not playing intelligently (Not directed at you Barundar, just in general :p)
-Keep in mind he might think Coag is black, as if there's three assassins and not four, he can go for a tie tonight, which is closer to his win condition than losing.


-Vig Coag
-Find another scum for lynch
-If no scum can be found, or there's no case stronger than the one on Coag, Lynch him

-In point form for those who apparently don't like reading
you gotta dance
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
April 14 2011 16:35 GMT
#2283
On April 15 2011 01:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
-Find another scum for lynch


Suggestions?
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
April 14 2011 16:35 GMT
#2284
ON/LSB
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
April 14 2011 16:36 GMT
#2285
On April 15 2011 01:25 Barundar wrote:
@Jackal: You have solid argumentation and clear opinions so far. I guess the moment you aren't obvious town we should lynch you asap . I agree with your argument, my counter argument would be: But why did he pick out coag? He must believe in his case. That makes it worth listening to. I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on that one.

Sorry. You'll have to wait for another game.
As far as picking Coag goes - My best guess is you pick the guy nobody can analyze to further your DT claim.
Life can only kill you once.
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
April 14 2011 16:44 GMT
#2286
On April 15 2011 01:35 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 15 2011 01:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
-Find another scum for lynch


Suggestions?


I'm personally thinking aidnai might be scummy, I'm going to do an analysis, but basically he didn't contribute any opinions Day 1, besides a bit of back and forth on Kav and then giving Kav advice after he was already lynched, and hasn't done much Day 2 but post a list of new players with not many posts and say "scum" and do a weak analysis on Rean. The rest is just one-line spam. Not sure if people would be willing to lynch him, but I've got my eye on him.

If not that, then probably ON, though LSB has acted more pro-town in my eyes since he's joined, so it makes it a little weird. Serejai is a throwaway lynch.

you gotta dance
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
April 14 2011 16:58 GMT
#2287
Rean, i never even accused me. OMGUS the people that accused you, But don't say i am 100% scum without a real analysis. I'm just pissed that instead of people relying on analysis and scumhunting to lynch someone, they are relying on a desperate assassin trying to stay alive. Before Protact's "revelation" that he was dt there was very little suspicion on coag. Now he's getting lynched??? WTF. Please reconsider your vote and lynch who YOU think is scum. Not who the assassin/dt/???? is telling you is red. Lurkers post some analysis, post your thoughts/suspicions. People keep saying i'm trying to bandwagon someone but he is bandwagoning coag. WHY WOULD A DT CLAIM ASSASSIN???? Yes I'm trying to derail this lynch because I THINK THERE ARE SURER SUSPECTS TO LYNCH. I know people who voted for coag must think the same.
Rean
Profile Joined February 2011
Netherlands808 Posts
April 14 2011 17:07 GMT
#2288
On April 15 2011 01:58 redFF wrote:
Rean, i never even accused me.


good to know you're not suicidal.


. OMGUS the people that accused you, But don't say i am 100% scum without a real analysis. I'm just pissed that instead of people relying on analysis and scumhunting to lynch someone, they are relying on a desperate assassin trying to stay alive.


Hurr durr I did write analysis on every single person I called scum. Read it. You're scum and I pointed out exactly why.


Before Protact's "revelation" that he was dt there was very little suspicion on coag. Now he's getting lynched??? WTF. Please reconsider your vote and lynch who YOU think is scum. Not who the assassin/dt/???? is telling you is red.


I'm lynching Coagulation because analysis from both Flamewheel and me point to him being scum. He's been acting typically scummy getting help from his buddy's to have attention thrown off him, and you're one of them.


Lurkers post some analysis, post your thoughts/suspicions. People keep saying i'm trying to bandwagon someone but he is bandwagoning coag. WHY WOULD A DT CLAIM ASSASSIN???? Yes I'm trying to derail this lynch because I THINK THERE ARE SURER SUSPECTS TO LYNCH. I know people who voted for coag must think the same.


He isn't a DT, he's a assassin desperate to stay alive and the only way he was out was to make a strong case on who he considered scum and claim DT in the hope town would sheep along. We've thrown away his DT claim but his case still stands: Coagulation was acting scummy. The reaction to him being suspected only proves that more.

Make a serious case against one of the 5 (aidnai, coagulation, kitaman, gmarshal and you) I called 100% scum and I might consider changing my vote to one of them.
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
April 14 2011 18:38 GMT
#2289
Hops on the second bandwagon of Kitaman almost right away. Posts a fuckload of useless crap and his main occupation appears to be stating the obvious and pressuring people only to back off at the first sign of resistance.

Starts off in favor of Protactinium, but quickly falls into being obsessed with inactives.

Has a nice little FoS going on GMarshal, but only does so because there's inactives voting him.

Also seems to be very protective of Coagulation. Suggests we only lynch him if Protactinium flips DT when everyone knows that won't happen.


Awesome analysis bro, I like how you say i make random accusations and back off at the first sign of resistance, when my main critics have been saying i'm tunneling too much. I looked at some of coags older games and i don't see anything hugely scummy considering how he normally plays. I think it's cool how you just lurlurklurk and then as soon as you are accused you come out knowing 100% 5 of the mafia and pretty sure about the other 3. I don't think you're scum because i agree with you in some of your fos's. But to say you are 100% sure of 5 of the scum with a paragraph on each of them is kinda bold.
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
April 14 2011 19:04 GMT
#2290
Coag we need to hear from you, if you stay silent you probably get lynched tonight. LSB you seem like the other major candidate, would love to hear your thoughts on coag/prot more than just: Lynch prot
Bartundar
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
April 14 2011 19:13 GMT
#2291
Chaoser do you think coagulation is red?
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
April 14 2011 19:32 GMT
#2292
On April 15 2011 04:13 LSB wrote:
Chaoser do you think coagulation is red?


For Sure Yo
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
April 14 2011 19:32 GMT
#2293
I can do a complete analysis later if you want on why I now think he's red.
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
April 14 2011 19:38 GMT
#2294
On April 15 2011 04:32 chaoser wrote:
I can do a complete analysis later if you want on why I now think he's red.

Please! would like an opinion from someone who i read as town.
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
April 14 2011 19:38 GMT
#2295
well as long as me being flipped reveals the assassin is manipulating town and proves hes assassin
im fine with being lynched.
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
April 14 2011 19:39 GMT
#2296
you might be taking me down
But im taking your ass down with me flamewheel.
your gonna be so fucking full of holes by night 2 your gonna look like swiss cheese.
Rean
Profile Joined February 2011
Netherlands808 Posts
April 14 2011 19:47 GMT
#2297
Why, are you letting your scumbuddy's revenge-kill? That's just BM man :<
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
April 14 2011 19:51 GMT
#2298
why would scum shoot him?
Assassins will take care of him.
Protactinium
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada550 Posts
April 14 2011 19:54 GMT
#2299
On April 14 2011 18:22 DropBear wrote:
This is interesting. All your analysis of him was based on day 1.

Did you see Coagulations defense on day 2? As I already stated, it was desperate and obviously scummy.

You could be very right and Coag and Marsh could be scum but I trust you about as far as I could throw you.


If you would like to critique the analysis, by all means do so. Don't shrug off my analysis just because you don't trust me. Read my analysis, and see if it makes sense. If it makes sense, then vote Coagulation. This has nothing to do with trusting me. It has to do with whether or not the analysis is good. If you are town, dismissing my analysis by attacking my credibility is a bad move.


On April 14 2011 19:31 DropBear wrote:
Also Flamewheel, it seems to me that a key point in your case against GMarshal and your case against Coag are at odds.
Show nested quote +
On April 14 2011 12:56 Protactinium wrote:
Think about GMarshal's overall profile. What is he trying to do? From day 1, notice how he does not express support for any candidate other than himself. Why? It seems that every other candidate was expressing who they wanted in office and why. It is extremely important for town to pick good elected officials. Yet GMarshal did nothing of the sort, and didn't say who he wanted to win election, besides himself. Yet he had no trouble in saying who he thought shouldn't be elected. It's obvious he has an agenda here. He doesn't care who gets in, as long as he is one of the winners. Look at the suspicious votes GMarshal gets. There are countless lurkers and inactives who vote GMarshal without explaining why. And as you recall, GMarshal was the first one out the gate, and managed to obtain a sizable lead early on in the race, while everyone else was stuck at less than 4 votes. At one point in time, GMarshal's 11 votes outnumbered all the other candidates combined. This is not a coincidence. As I've said before, mafia candidates are never uncompetitive in a mayoral election. Having the 20% of the total voting power, mafia always tend to get an early lead and maintain it. Why is this? Because of town tendencies to bandwagon, it is very advantageous to get an early lead, as you are likely to attract votes of newer/inexperienced/uninterested townies who feel safe voting for a big name player who leads the vote count. GMarshal's early lead suggests mafia interference. But that's not all. Look at the thread activity during day 1. There are plenty of people who are unsure of electing DH or me on day 1, but almost all GMarshal's voters are unmoving. There was plenty of room to sway votes among the DH/Protact crowd, but GMarshal's voters were alarmingly loyal.

All the people not voting Marsh for mayor debated in the thread.
Show nested quote +
On April 14 2011 12:14 Protactinium wrote:
On April 14 2011 11:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
coagulation is not a power player I can't see any mafia faking a DT claim to save a lynch on coagulation. that's pretty desperate play especially considering how much dissent there already is to the lynch:

and the fact that mafia has no reason to try to get protactinium lynched/killed if they believe he is the assassin (unlike the reasons they would have to keep him out of office)

Incorrect. Coagulation is a key player for the mafia. It's not that he's a good player, it's that mafia have already committed to saving him. Look back at the thread. Ever since my Coagulation accusation, mafia have been trying to subtly redirect the lynch. Notice how people are "not convinced" that Coagulation is mafia, try to suggest that we let me die tonight to "prove" that Coagulation is innocent, and try to suggest other targets. Yet notice the divergence in the voting thread. The voting is overwhelmingly in favor of lynching Coagulation, yet the debate in the thread diverges sharply. This is not an accident. Notice how nobody was doing any real analysis before I popped up and accused Coagulation. Mafia felt no need to fear when they thought I was as good as dead. But when I post a strong analysis, they reacted. They reacted not by refuting my points, but by flooding the thread with alternative accusations trying to derail the lynch. Why? They don't know who to push. They know the Coagulation analysis is a strong one, so they need to offer a target that town will readily buy. They're trying to test the waters and see what lynch works.

All the people not voting for Coag to be lynched debated in the thread. You really are desperate to find cases if your cases are conflicting.

HOWEVER this point, although you've shown it accidentally, shows that something is amiss here. We have two seemingly different, very rapidly formed bandwagons.
Which names are on both wagons?
- Robellicose, who has done little but repeat himself and sheep.
- Serejai, who has done little but troll.
- Kenpachi, who has been extremely quiet and made a bizarre sheep post.

I am interested in these three names.


The discrepancy you point out is not a discrepancy at all. There was debate on DH/my candidacy because mafia were spreading doubt. There is debate on the Coag lynch because mafia need to split up the vote in order to save Coag. Makes total sense here.


The combination of his being on both bandwagons, his bizarre posting and the subtle differences between this game and his Insane 2 town posting are why you should ##Vote Kenpachi


Being on both bandwagons is not indicative of him being mafia. In fact, it proves just the opposite - he is actually a town bandwagoner.

Gmarshal: 13
DoctorHelvetica
Lanaia
Robellicose
Coagulation
OriginalName
Mig
AirbladeOrange
M0nsterChef
kevconsim
darmousseh
Kenpachi
Serejai
Barundar
Lemonwalrus
Kavdragon
GMarshal
tnkted
Latrommi


Coagulation: 10
Protactinium
DoctorHelvetica
kevconsim
chaoser
urashimakt
Rean
Mig
bumatlarge
DarthThienAn
Serejai
Robellicose
Kenpachi


Notice how only 3 of the names are on both lists. This means that a majority of the GMarshal voters do not agree with the Coagulation lynch. If you look at GMarshal's strong defense (not a direct defense, but a credibility attack by me) of Coagulation, it makes sense. GMarshal and Coag have the same alignment. The people who are on both bandwagons are likely bored townies who don't want to spend time analyzing and are just voting the bandwagon. Mafia are definitely not jumping onto this bandwagon because there is way too much opposition to the lynch.

Kenpachi may have some slight posting differences. But Coagulation has huge posting differences. Its day and night. Look over his previous games to see for yourself. Kenpachi is 99% town. Please reconsider your vote and vote Coagulation.
And so, we find the Sublime.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
April 14 2011 19:55 GMT
#2300
On April 15 2011 04:47 Rean wrote:
Why, are you letting your scumbuddy's revenge-kill? That's just BM man :<

You tell us. What are you guys going to do tonight?
Seriously. If Coag flips green or blue I'm gonna mount your ass on my wall as a trophy.
Life can only kill you once.
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