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TL Mafia XXXVII
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On February 20 2011 14:03 GMarshal wrote: So, I wasn't in Salem Mafia, can I ask what we exactly we are being punished for? I think that was the one where a PM ring was formed and infiltrated by day one and then we pretty much depended on it and that drove us to failville, population: town | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + +1 | ||
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all that jelly | ||
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On February 23 2011 09:22 LSB wrote: Pre game yes, but its always good to lose that habit. Plus not editing jacks up your post count! By the end of this game, you could be a zergling, or even a hydra! Game starts 03:00 GMT (+00:00) lol mafia forum is the reason i'm a goli | ||
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On February 23 2011 12:55 annul wrote: it reeks of red because he is like "hey so theres weak powers in this game lol" which can only be known if he is a red, since if he was green he cant make that blanket claim and if he was a blue, he'd even be less inclined to make that claim the only way he can do that is if he is red and he sees the red team has weak or no powers the powers are listed out in the OP aren't they? I don't think framing is that powerful if they can pick like all GF or something (don't see limit on GF). That just means we can't trust our DTs this game =/ | ||
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On February 23 2011 13:17 annul wrote: what? that post makes no sense. like, i dont mean the logic, i mean the grammar (though the logic probably sucks too) ughhhhh sorry, running on two hours of sleep, hell week for me in med school x_x. Let me rephrase into just a simple question. Why does Seraph think/know there are 6 mafia? The mafia counter is unknown in the OP. | ||
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On February 23 2011 14:18 GMarshal wrote: No, I'm playing different than when you saw me as a DT in a no flip game, its a completely different scenario, also I don't think I'm playing that different, but it is a different scenario. You completely misinterpreted what I said about cells, I restated what i said about cells several times so if you read my posts you should have understood what the intention behind the cells was now I have a question to ask you: what was the purpose of claiming vet? Now mafia won't hit you neglecting your usefulness as a hit absorber, also requesting claims is a scum tell. What plan are you going to propose next, perhaps a nice mass claim to make it easy on mafia? You are setting off every alarm on my scumdar, my only defense of you is that I dont think mafia would play this badly He's probably BM, don't worry about it -_- | ||
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On February 23 2011 13:19 GMarshal wrote: for arguments sake going to create analysis cells, use them for informational analysis (even assuming I were scum there is no way) I could ensure each has a mafia member in it as there isn't enough mafia to go around (I am trying to put at least 1 TL vet in each) as the game progresses and people die we can have new cells form. (also you are free to create your own parallel cells) 1. Coagulation, LSB, gryffindor 2 GMarshal, seRapH, OriginalName 3 Mr. Wiggles, ICanFlyLow, kevconsim 4 Barundar, LastArgument , why 5 darmousseh, Ser Aspi, Kenpachi 6 Gofarman, chaoser, ohN 7 astroorion, CubEdIn, Jackal58 8 Beneather, annul, Conversion 9 icemac, Foolishness, LunarDestiny 10 deconduo, kitaman27, JBright This is just a suggestion, but I think it is a good one, discuss Can you explain why this is a bad idea gryff? Your previous posts on why it's bad (weird, can lead to role reversal) don't really cut it. Roles aren't being revealed and people don't have to follow the list. Isn't it just making this 30 man game into many team mini games? Also, would being in a group with a mafia help a townie or not? More interactions in a more private setting might mean more likely for mafia to fuck up | ||
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It leads to the sharing of information, which the mafia need in this setup to properly use their abilities of role reversing the town into submission, as opposed to straight up kill power. Except in this situation if the groups are known publicly, then a blue getting dicked over by role reversal will immediately give town two very big suspects in the form of his circle mates. There's some pitfalls in the plan obviously, but i can see it working if we play it right. It cuts down on lurking/inactivity too and that's usually a big help. Also, why am I not on your list =[ Do you have a plan for town and can you comment on foolishness' statement about now anyone asking for his opinion means they're mafia? | ||
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VOTE COAGULATION OOPS! | ||
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1) Grfy thinks it's GM fishing for blues and that the plan doesn't work for town 2) GM thinks it will promote activity and that it's a pro-town move (did I get this right?) Let's take a step back and lets move on to pressuring inactives. The newbies I can understand, but JBright, you really should have said something by now. ##Vote: JBright | ||
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Use of PM to ask questions directed at one specific person isn't "isolation" it's scumhunting. He isn't preventing you from posting both in PMs and on the thread. If anything, if you only reply in PM and not in thread, that's a bit suspicious to the person PMing you. Mass pming everyone to ask questions that aren't blue directed could either be townie trying to scum hunt or a mafia trying REALLLY hard to play infiltration role. Grfy's vet claim is a pretty good play if he's town i'd say.... 1) it gets reactions from people 2) mafia has to be on their toes, is he really vet or is he lying? Do we hit him or let him live? The only thing that worries me about it is the mass claim part to me. While most veteran players won't and will merely respond with a what?? you so crazy!!, some newbies with blue roles might actually do it and claim (even some vets are stupid enough to blind claim -_-) For that, I'm suspicious and that's why I'm asking pointed questions to him, specifically in thread. I could have done it in PMs too, which i think is what Gmarshal is doing, applying pressure. | ||
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On February 24 2011 02:21 Jackal58 wrote: If he is a vet scum just have to do a role reversal on him and he's "hit" His claim makes no sense in this set up. And if he's just green? They just wasted 1 KP. It makes mafia doubt and because of that, he can play a bit more aggressive and out in the open, though that might be just in his character... | ||
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On February 24 2011 06:42 annul wrote: actually in fact, the only way you can claim "ive been really scummy so far" is if you saw my play last night, and if you did, then you know i already explained that vote. interesting. Maybe you should do some reading of your own since I've already responded to your point about me already, as have many others. You looking like a dumb town, or a crazy red playing super aggressive. Either way, you better step up your game fast. | ||
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Will reread and post tomorrow, just took a midterm (aced it) and finished a 6 page paper in 2 hours and running on no sleep. Night all, hopefully we have a more peaceful town tomorrow. Angry town=town not working at it's fullest. Emotions get the best of us and then mafia can sway us easily. Remember, this is not just a logic game, it's also an emotional one. | ||
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Firstly, Annul: At present, annul is bad for town whether he's mafia or not...I mean there's not helping town and there's being detrimental to town. Making the thread into a heated mud slinging battle=not very good atmosphere to be catching red in. Promoting discussion is fine, promoting flaming is not. It just lets mafia blend in and take sides and have an easy way of "contributing to discussion". I know he can do better too, it's just a question of why isn't he i guess. I hate policy lynches but if it keeps going this way... I'm willing to have him as a fall back lynch if no one else comes up. That being said, icemac, what's up not analyzing? Whether it's "fluff" or not (I don't really think the topics people are discussing are fluff) there's a lot to talk about. You can talk about the situation in general (why did this convo pop up? if this is mafia talking why would they do this? etc. etc,) Or you can even explain why it's fluff. You kinda just say it's fluff and bounce. How the heck am I red? Just because I'm smart enough to take a bipartisan approach to day 1 and not listen to over analysis and red-analysis doesn't mean I'm scum playing the middle of the road. I actually use to play this way too cause I figured I needed more info before making a call, but making a call by itself is helpful for town. When we look back on past events, we can say, ah ha, this is where he stood in the situation, given what's happened so far, i think he's town/mafia/etc. It's like leaving a mark for all to see. As opposed to saying nothing about anything and then you don't leave ANY mark. How is town suppose to read you if you're just not leaving a mark? By thinking hmm why didn't he want to leave a mark...SCUMMM. See, not helpful at all. Gryffindor: I don't know if he lied or not. Maybe it was just a misunderstanding in PMs where he thought RoL/MK said something they didn't actually mean. Unless RoL says in thread he 100% lied, I'm going to read it as such. His list, I think, is just him giving into popular sentiment. I don't think it points to him as being red, more like he's seeing that it COULD be beneficial. Also, how is it that you can't correlate my idea with his cell idea? Just because we have cells scumhunting, doesn't mean we can't PM a confirmed on d2 or d3. I do not see how it is black vs white, when there is in fact a lot of room for gray area. This statement by him is pretty good, I agree that both can be combined if needed. Makes me think he's green cause he's willing to compromise instead of just toeing the line which is much easier to do as mafia than to reach across the aisle. | ||
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On February 25 2011 03:59 Jackal58 wrote: When your parents caught you lying what was the first thing you did? Get mad nervous and make up a bullshit story? | ||
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##vote annul | ||
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I just asked RoL how the KP works to try and figure out how many mafia there are and he said mafia can round up. Assuming 6 mafia like people mentioned before, 5 left, that's 1+/5x4 = 3 KP. That means they can still kill 3 and have .5KP left over to frame/cover. 100% DON'T CLAIM if you've found a townie or a vet, it's too risky, they could be GF or covered. | ||
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On February 26 2011 12:20 Jackal58 wrote: Because it needs repeating. + Show Spoiler + The following need to step up their game: Gofarman - 8 posts astroorion - 3 posts JBright - 4 posts ICanFlyLow - 2 posts ohN - 3 posts why - 6 posts CubEdIn - 6 posts LastArgument - 7 posts Fewer that 10 posts this far in is inexcusable. Cubed I know you can do better than that. I concur @ICanFlyLow I understand it's a little intimidating to see 20+ pages of discussion and whatnot, but you need to post a bit more. By a bit more I mean A LOT more. A very easy way to do that is to go to someone's post, click profile, click his postcount and then open all his posts for this game and read through them and then analyse what they have said. Pretty simple. Currently you have....2 posts. @Gofarman He's looking for a replacement, don't know what's going to happen here @ohN Although he's posted very little, they're pretty good posts by themselves. + Show Spoiler + On February 23 2011 19:21 ohN wrote: 'Just finished catching up My thoughts: Cells are a good idea but GMarshal giving us predetermined groups that he thinks we should work with is pretty scummy. They weren't just like 1-3, 4-6 either, he moved them around to his liking. Not a good candidate for day1 lynch because I don't feel that that alone is enough to incriminate him but definitely FoS on him. I dont see how people think + Show Spoiler + On February 23 2011 12:40 chaoser wrote: Ok, so like Gmarshal said, we shouldn't depend on blues this game. Especially since RoL specifically said this game was to punish us for what happened in Salam. At the same thing, I don't think the mafia powers are all THAT powerful. Let them frame away, that's one less death to worry about. PMs are allowed but PLEASE don't just give out crazy info in them (roleclaim, etc.). The point of town is not to have 1 leader controlling everything but small circles that are separated so that if one goes down, the others can still operate. Let's all work together and not let a few players handle all the work (which always seems to happen). This means contributing pleaseee. Him noting that mafia isn't that powerful is something anybody could point out. Role reversal has huge potential but only if mafia has a confirmed blue. They still have to give up an entire kp to use it so they will not be open to using it without being absolutely sure. Role reversal on a townie does nothing except waste a kp. I'll probably end up voting for someone who hasn't posted anything useful or that guy who thought annul was inactive(lol). and + Show Spoiler + On February 25 2011 10:26 ohN wrote: Icemac is probably town. Bad d1 lynch target. Looks more like a bad/aggressive player than scum. I'm still not convinced annul is a good lynch. Annul's not pushing GM that hard, he simply pointed out that GM had a bad idea and is calling him out on it. I don't think he ever said "GM is clear mafia." GM DID propose an arguably terrible plan; how come nobody else is calling him out for that? Annul's not looking any more scum than GM here in my eyes. Barundar's accusation of Jackal is definitely not convincing but it's not utter crap either. It's an interesting point to look back to in the near future. Slight FoS on Jackal imo. And finally, why is gryff not getting lynched? Blatant lie here. Wait what. ##Vote: gryffindor | ||
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1. Barundar attempts to redirect the lynch off of annul Wouldn't mafia, if they were trying to redirect off annul, find it easier to pick gryf to stack on? He lied multiple times, changed from no to the PMs to yes to PMs but with his own list. I mean, that's a much easier case to be made than to do it on jackal right? It doesn't make sense to try to push jackal is a viable lynch candidate for mafia when the big juicy target of gryf is there. | ||
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Priority 1: Automatic night 1 snipes if possible These players are proven scumhunters LSB Foolishness So basically you claimed town, you didn't even say "good players" you said "proven scumhunters" aka keep us around cause we'll help town win please don't lynch us or town is fucked. Not to mention you scream for medic protection, making it seem like you're town. Basically if we are going to lynch a priority 1 person, the analysis must be far better than a priority 3 person, because if we're wrong, that would be far worse for the town. If we're wrong about you being town and you're actually mafia then it's far worse for the town as well. The whole time you've been building up this image of, don't lynch me town, you're going to get dicked cause you need me via subtle threats to town. BC's guide has stated that we need multiple leaders and not to depend on one guy. By trying to consolidate power in a way that's subtle and a bit underhanded, aren't you just making the town depend on you? That's the worse possible thing for town to do, especially since there's a decent amount of newbies who will sheep. What are you trying to pull? I don't know if you're red but I do know that if barundar flips green, you're the first one on my lynch list. | ||
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I don't agree with you LSB, Jackal wasn't an easier choice than Gryf or icemac. I think at that point, no one had voted for Jackal yet, so for mafia to start a completely new bandwagon instead of using one that already had a decent amount of people in it is weird and not what mafia would do. The only reason mafia would pick jackal over BOTH grfy and icemac is if both of them were mafia and they had to start a new one. So if barundar does flip red, we should pay attention to those two | ||
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On February 27 2011 05:11 LSB wrote: So what do you think about the actual list? You haven't commented if its a good idea or not. Ad Hominem arguments don't count. In addition, how is the list consolidating power? It's not reliant on me at all, in fact, the purpose of the list is so that when I'm dead, people will have an idea of what the mafia is doing and what to pay attention to. I love the list. It's awesome, it helps direct those that are newbies and also paints us an easy picture to see what the status of the game is like currently. It makes me think you're either super pro town or you're doing a power play as mafia, which i know you like to do. Basically I'm acknowledging you're a good player. But if you're mafia, then I want to note these little things and point them out to people so that if we need to in the future, we can come back and look at you again. I'm not saying the list itself is consolidating power, i'm saying that you're dropping little hints everywhere that you should be protected, that if you die then town will be losing a valuable asset and it'll be in a deeper hole than if you were alive. I'm reading it as subtle threats to town. | ||
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On February 27 2011 10:57 icemac wrote: Oh boy, if ohn is mafia and i'm town, i'm going to quote the hell out of this afterwards. For us to know if you're town, don't you have to be dead? how you going to quote it if you dead? | ||
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On February 28 2011 03:33 kevconsim wrote: life support? Think he's talk about you kev. Also, LSB, shame on you. Your whole defense has been lynch him first! he's mafia! I'm not! when he flips red you'll see how I'm green. You claim all he's doing is WIFOM but you're doing the same by linking to old games. We can't trust "play style" analysis 100% since smart players will obviously change it up. Or not change it up. That's WIFOM too. Respond to his individual points please, until you do my vote will be on you. He was willing to write a fucking essay; if he was mafia trying that hard, and you're really town, you would try just as hard. So far you're not and so you scumminess is getting higher for me. | ||
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Yes, I think some of it is WIFOM. But the fact that he wrote a 3 post essay + the fact that you won't even consider the idea that maybe he is town makes me wary of you. Either way, the same can be said for you. If you get lynched, and you flip green, he will be suspect. | ||
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No, i think he's MORE town than you because after his essay your responses have been lacking. My vote right after his case against you was: 1) me thinking jesus...no way mafia did this (illogical yes, but still, i'm sure the idea that "this isn't mafia-like" crossed many people's minds.) 2) to pressure you to see how you would respond. You didn't respond well. To be truthful, the idea that both of you were green crossed my mind many times but after your recent responses...I dunno... | ||
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On February 28 2011 04:38 LSB wrote: Seriously, I'm really not liking what you are trying to pass as arguments. First you claim that Mafia work a lot less than town, and that Barundar posted a bunch of long posts makes him green. This is a silly argument that doesn't merit my response. Secondly, you claim that I'm not responding to Barundar well, without actually answering any of my responses. In case you haven't noticed, I still have not seen a critisim of my responses from you. You are making a case out of nothing. Thirdly you take a whishy washy position that looks good regardless of who gets lynched. This isn't a direct FOS, but I don't believe your intentions are so pure. I agree it's a silly argument (even said it was "illogical" in my post). But it's also a natural one, at least for me. I've never seen mafia make the kind of intense posts that he did. I don't think it's a scum thing to do. I never said work harder, I'm saying mafia doesn't need to do that kind of posting. To me it seems more like town trying realllyyy hard to figure something out. Think about it from an outside perspective and not from your perspective. Your attack is all WIFORM: You are saying "hey what if LSB was scum", well he would play that way. Only problem is it is a complete misrepresentation, my scum play and my town play are completely different, here is a link for how Incog describes it http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=190444¤tpage=21#415 On February 28 2011 02:04 LSB wrote: Hey guys, lets just use our lynch on Barundar, once he flips red, I'll be cleared. Ezpz. In addition, this is the same problem with Barundar's push against Jackal58, + Show Spoiler + Oops, 'scumslip' I said Barundar was read On February 28 2011 02:10 LSB wrote: Go lynch Barundar and once he flips red that will be my defense. Those three responses are what made me suspicious. You say his case against you is WIFOM and then you use a WIFOM argument to argue back. Then you just say vote him guys, when he flips red, i'll be proven green. To me your case against his case against you is 1) His case is a lot of fluff that's WIFOM 2) One of the reasons he thinks I'm mafia is cause he doesn't think Foolishness is 3) He will flip red and I will be exonerated Is that correct? | ||
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On February 28 2011 04:59 GMarshal wrote: Ok, at this point I dont believe either Barundar or LSB are town, Barundar because of his analysis and convictions, LSB because he seems to be playing pro-town, knowing LSB's general scum style however its not impossible for him to be scum but if he is he is almost guaranteed to push a scummy plan or lynch sooner rather than later, why take a huge gamble on lynching a great player who seems pro-town when he is likely to screw up as scum and get lynched later? ##unvote Hmm...I need some more time to think... | ||
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fuck it, i'm going to vote for the guy i've been suspicious of instead of this LSB/Barundar bullcrap vote: icemac | ||
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On February 28 2011 12:27 Beneather wrote: Voting for yourself doesn't prove he's innocent, people vote for themselves when they don't know who to vote for. It's just a way to keep them from being modkilled. I have been inactive because of stupid english assignments. I'll be more active tomorrow on the day. :D Coming out right after day...classy | ||
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On February 28 2011 12:56 Foolishness wrote: Oh whoops I miscounted one, somehow I thought it would have been tied. Points still stand though. You can't have a bandwagon in 30 minutes. Even me trying to bandwagon in 5 hours is a huge stretch. Not if you're pandain | ||
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On March 01 2011 00:38 gryffindor wrote: Also, I knew the list I made was completely randomized, whereas GMarshal had admitted to tweaking his. Is it sad that I am almost as afraid, if not moreso, of dying to a terrible vigilante shot? @Vig, if you are going to hit me, claim in thread beforehand so you can be clear and lead a lynch tomorrow. Can I just say that that's a horrible scumslip? Really? telling a VIGI to claim in thread??? Role reversal will dick him over...blue fishing at its finest | ||
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On March 01 2011 01:43 gryffindor wrote: ack, i forgot about that extra mechanic claim in PM to me LOL so apparently you are the most trusted person for this plan to go forward with? Yeah ok. | ||
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On March 01 2011 01:43 gryffindor wrote: ack, i forgot about that extra mechanic claim in PM to me Also, how does that make sense? Vigi claims to you in PM. Shoots you, you die, no one knows who vigi is cause you're dead. I call bullshit on this plan. FoS to the fucking highest. | ||
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On March 01 2011 11:57 LSB wrote: I was role blocked last night. Ok, that means detectives and cops should have clean checks for today. They could only do one 0.5 KP power. | ||
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On March 01 2011 12:01 GMarshal wrote: This is interesting, it hints at mafia having 3 kp or else they cannot afford to rb anyone. Also do any vigi's claim to have shot last night? because if you did then we know that mafia spent a whole KP doing something else, if no-one claims the vigi hit then we have to work on the assumption that there wasn't one. Also gryff you seemed pretty convinced you were going to die... Didn't we come to the conclusion that mafia had 6 members in the beginning? Annul died, leaving 3 KP. They used .5KP for powers and 2.5KP for three kills. I asked RoL about the KP usage and he said the rounding up system was the one he was using. Cops and detectives, today's results should be a bit more reliable than yesterday's but still take it with a grain of salt. | ||
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On March 01 2011 12:07 GMarshal wrote: O.O then I believe CubEdIn was a vigi and shot last night as he told me in PM that he was particularly suspicious of ON, its possible it was someone else or that one of you is lying either a vigi shot and mafia only used 1.5 KP for 2 kills and used 2KP for powers or vigi didn't shoot and mafia used 2.5 KP for 3 kills and 0.5KP for Roleblock on LSB (if he really did get roleblocked) | ||
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Then either someone is lying or there were 7 mafia 4 KP->3.5 KP->1 KP for 2 roleblocks and 2.5 KP for 3 kills unless vigi But that means they started with 4 KP...is that a normal KP to have? | ||
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On March 01 2011 12:17 Jackal58 wrote: We would have lost 4 townies on night 1. OP alludes to the possibility of multiple godfathers in play. We need a vigi claim now. even with multiple GF, lets say there were 2 GF, that would mean probs 3 regular for 3.5KP to start. Annul died, still 3 KP, only enough for 1 RB. | ||
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On March 01 2011 12:22 Jackal58 wrote: I know. I'm going to take Gmarshalls advice atm. Good call ##vote LunarDestiny pressure pressure | ||
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On March 02 2011 00:38 LSB wrote: I don't get the LD lynch. Am I reading it right, or is it all based on one PM? (And also how LD is a bit more inactive than usual?) I mean, it's all circumstantial evidence but it's all we have to go on right now. OK BACK TO WORK NO TL!!! see you guys tomorrow! | ||
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1) Mafia actually roleblocked the two of them 2) One of them is lying Mafia roleblocked both 1) This means there's more mafia than we assumed, either way, no matter what setup we think up, mafia will have to have 4 KP. This brings up questions: 1) 4 KP is a bit overpowered, they can overrun most medic/vets and still come out with 3 kills per night. If this was the case, the question of why priority 1 players (LSB, Foolishness) aren't dead yet comes up. 2) Why would they roleblock two players and then not claim vigi themselves to "clear" one of their own? The fact that no one claimed vigi, whether an actual vigi or a scum is odd. One of them is lying 1) This means mafia doesn't have 4 KP. 2) The question is then, why would mafia lie? They should know their own KP count so it's a little weird. The only explanation is there was a miscommunication between the mafia in which case this is a HUGE scumslip. At the very least this should be investigated more. I don't have time, got a test in an hour but hopefully this isn't as fail an analysis as the one I did on the BC situation... | ||
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Roleblock: Cost .5KP blocks a player from using his power during that night. Player is notified of being role blocked. | ||
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At this point, I think it's safe to assume no vigi is goign to claim. There are a lot of inconsistancies with the killings and roleblocking last night so I will write a detailed post to try to go after all possibilities. KP analysis: 1)Three kills happened. Two Roleblocks happened. This means at the very least, 3.5 KP were used. Adding in annul's 0.5 KP, mafia had 4 KP at the start of game. They currently can still kill 4 people a day. 2)Three kills happened. One Roleblock happened. This means at the very least, 3 KP were used. Adding in annul's 0.5 KP, mafia had 3.5 KP at the start of game. They no longer can kill 4 people a day. Questions/problems/comments if (1) happened: 1)Assuming that mafia started with 4KP, that means every mislynch would be 5 dead. That means game would potentially be over by end of night 3 since 15 people would have died at that point. I think, while RoL did say we were being punished, this setup, combined with the mafia powers, would be too OP for mafia. They could override medic protects or vigis like nothing and STILL have 0.5 KP left over for a power (cover/frame/roleblock). Even with annul lynched, mafia still has the ability to kill 4 people a night, they just lose their ability to use a power as well. To be able to lose a mafia and still have 4 KP seems unlikely. 2)If this is indeed the setup that mafia have, the question of why are LSB and Foolishness still alive comes up. Medic protects would be useless unless the person was also a vet. Two days have past and yet they were left untouched. If mafia WASN'T them, they'd have tried a hit on them already since, according to the list, they are the two strongest players. The only reason mafia wouldn't hit them is either 1) mafia is inexperienced and are new to TL mafia or 2) They are mafia. I highly doubt the first option given RoL's statement about wanting us to be punished for Salem. 3)Why would mafia roleblock two people? Questions/problems/comments if (2) happened: 1) This setup makes a bit more sense since 3.5 KP means mafia can either kill 4 or kill 3 and use KP for 1 mafia power use. If mafia loses one, they lose the ability to kill 4. This still means that mafia had the ability to kill 4 until they lost one member though, so it's still iffy. 2) The main question here is, why would mafia lie? Out of both, the two most important questions are: 1) In the case of (1), Why would mafia roleblock two people? and 2) In the case of (2), Why would mafia lie? Both questions are deeply tied to town's assumption that the setup is 1 GF and 5 mafia, leading to KP setup (2). Case (1): Mafia would roleblock two people for a very simple reason. Because they thought both were blue. This would make a lot of sense except for a few things. 1) In thread, LSB had claimed green 2) Why wouldn't they claim vigi then? We all thought the mafia had 3 KP. This situation makes it seem like mafia has 3.5 KP. Mafia could have come in, claimed vigi and cleared our confusion while also appearing town sided. If they don't, then they are basically soft-confirming two townies. Mafia wouldn't want to do this. This point, tied with the first point makes me question this case. Case (2): Why mafia would lie is another interesting question. The only reason I can think of is that they want to appear town. Except this has problems as well. 1) If they actually wanted to appear town then they wouldn't have roleblocked anyone. Instead they would have covered the liar and then claimed roleblock. Or have GF claim roleblock. 2) By roleblocking and then lying, they are bringing attention to their "clear a mafia" plan and it would fail. The only way I can see case (2) happening is if there was miscommunication between members of the mafia team. The goal of the mafia would then to be to play the situation down and hope people turn to other issues. In the first case, the mafia can, at any time, claim vigi and resolve the issue. In the second case, mafia CAN'T resolve the issue and can only try to move the town's conciousness elsewhere. This combined with the fact that: 2)If this is indeed the setup that mafia have, the question of why are LSB and Foolishness still alive comes up. Medic protects would be useless unless the person was also a vet. Two days have past and yet they were left untouched. If mafia WASN'T them, they'd have tried a hit on them already since, according to the list, they are the two strongest players. The only reason mafia wouldn't hit them is either 1) mafia is inexperienced and are new to TL mafia or 2) They are mafia. I highly doubt the first option given RoL's statement about wanting us to be punished for Salem. makes me think case (2) is what happened. The only way to clear the situation up then is to lynch one of the two. Since LSB has been under suspicion and has done some scummy things (as covered in bum's post), I think he would be the best choice. ##vote LSB | ||
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On March 03 2011 03:51 GMarshal wrote: Its day 3 and LSB isn't dead, this to me is incredibly suspicious, usually I wouldn't go after a major player like him, but seeing what he flips will tell us alot about other peoples alignments, specifically chaoser, barundar and bumatlarge. Lets see what LSB flips, shall we? Also chaoser you neglected to consider that perhaps mafia is only allowed to kill up to 3 people per night. ##Unvote Jbright ##Vote LSB If that was the case then RoL would have written that in the OP. | ||
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RoL, are mafia limited in kill numbers every night? (ie. they were only allowed to kill 3 people the first night whether they had 3.5 KP or 4 KP) | ||
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On March 03 2011 06:55 deconduo wrote: Again the point is not whether or not you are more suspicious than LSB, but that chaos and bum completely ignored the possibility of it. I don't have any suspicions on jackal. I have suspicions on LSB. I've written about him previously. I am 80% convinced he is mafia. I'm going to push for his lynch. That being said, what foolishness said really vibes well with me. We can look at this situation again in day if we want to, it'll always be here. But that's not the case with the inactives. ##unvote LSB ##vote Jbright | ||
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The way I'm thinking about it is like this. Jbright and LSB, which one would be an easier call for a vigi? We lynch Jbright and leave LSB for a vigi to hit. | ||
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On March 03 2011 09:01 deconduo wrote: Just a note: chaoser: annul, icemac, JBright Cubed: annul, icemac, JBright kevconsim: annul, icemac, JBright <- new player I think but serious lurker. votes without explaining. please post more lists that have no meaning because they take out all the context. | ||
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so we lynched seraph? cool, let's hope he flips red, fingers crossed. Can you post results now RoL? want to read and go drink cause it's my bday lol | ||
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On March 03 2011 11:43 ohN wrote: Oh man i was so busy these past few days and i completely forgot i was playing. D: ##Vote: ohN Sorry, I'll catch up asap. LOLOLOL. wow...how more scum can you get lol | ||
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"CB1 cannabinoid receptors mediate anxiolytic effects: convergent genetic and pharmacological evidence with CB1-specific agents" | ||
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On March 03 2011 11:50 Jackal58 wrote: Encouraging people to smoke a doobie in a game that already promotes massive paranoia. This is scum right here folks. well of course =p. it's more for anxiety disorder though rather than regular old anxiety | ||
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On March 03 2011 12:43 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I made a mistake Night 1 with the role PM's which made the mafia not realize that their KP rounds up. This cost them the ability to use a power. To compensate for that Night 2 I gave them an extra .5KP OHHHHHHH, that makes so much sense. WOWWWWW THANKS FOR MAKING ME WASTE MY TIME ANALYZING THE DAMN THING!! i am never going to analyze shit ever again. Between this and the BC fiasco...I give up... | ||
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This doesn't say much in itself because other members of the town have the same thing going for them (hi chaoser!). I totally did! Was just wrong on icemac that's all ;_; | ||
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On March 04 2011 12:19 Foolishness wrote: GG don't worry, we'll get em for ya <3 | ||
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REPEATING WHAT I JUST SAID! SCUMMMMMMMMMMMM lol | ||
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On March 04 2011 13:12 LastArgument wrote: for all the excitement from this game and looking at the last page and seeing two giant writeup's on me I am amused. One of you guys / mafia failed pretty hard. I took a hit last night. I am now going to begin my massive writeup on who I suspect this game, and I should have it up before bed in a few hours. You'll notice both of them have been by people who voted right both times to get mafia. Vet claim is so typical of scum | ||
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On March 04 2011 13:24 kevconsim wrote: Too bad im not mafia! so it will take 3 days for us to win What do you mean by "take us 3 day to win"? | ||
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On March 04 2011 13:52 LunarDestiny wrote: You shitting me? 30 players setup, 4 mafia. That doesn't even make sense in terms of KP... | ||
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On March 04 2011 13:55 kevconsim wrote: I am a Townie Can you comment on who you think are mafia then? Who are the two you think are mafia? | ||
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Unless.....you're the GF and they were regular mafia. The pressure is on you so you need to sell out one of your underlings to keep your 1 KP and only losing 0.5 KP instead. Your post is so scum it's not even funny: + Show Spoiler + On February 25 2011 06:34 LunarDestiny wrote: I read about the last three pages and found not very strong reasons that Annul is scum. I don't see much scum tell in his vote switch from Chaoser to Gmarshall. Annul did justify his vote on Gmarshall on why his plan is bad. Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions." I played with Annul many times before and it seems that he is always aggressive on day1. XXXV: Accused LSB mafia because he spams and don't contribute much. Merc Mafia: Claimed medic to me (day vig) and planned to have 100% town victory. Survivor Mafia (ongoing): After the quick 3 people alliance, he rallied and formed the counter 5 people alliance to take control of the game. This game compared to other games I played with Annul, I consider that he is playing less aggressive. This post is prime example of day 1 defending of a dead mafia. It soft claim defends annul. He compares the behaviour of 3 games of annul, 1 red, 2 town. In each of the three games he played very similarly except in game 1 as mafia he used bad logic to get someone killed. The link here is between this current game and that game, he was playing much differently from his town norm, revealing him as red. This would easily be seen from the looking from game as town and game as red of annul, but instead he tries to link all 3 games under the same style, when 1 was definitely different. Misrepresenting the facts is something one would do to defend ones teammate. On February 25 2011 07:58 LunarDestiny wrote: Looked over Annul's posts: 1) He posts are generally short and don't have much content to them. I do find Annul saying Gmarshall is mafia based only on his circle thing is not convincing. 2) This is the part I disagree. Annul did what most people will do in this situation. He attacked someone whom he believe is mafia and defended himself when he was in huge danger of being lynched. If he didn't go after someone, ok... since not everyone got a mafia read on day1. And his defense on himself is normal behavior. To determine if he is really mafia, you have to look at the time when he felt pressured and tried to redirect the lynch to another person (Gmarshall in this case) and if there are any support from others. People did pointed out Gmarshall's circle thing is a horrible idea but no one voted for him after Annul's switch. Again he slightly defends annul here by trying to use a wifom defense for annul, while then redirecting to another player. He also mentions how people pointed out how bad the idea of the circles was, when the major objectors were gryff, annul. Seraph posted against it briefly (flipped red), lunar did, and ohn did. Almost no one else was opposed. Reservations possibly had in that the groups created could have been fixed if gm is red. However, when we know two of the main group flipped up red, and one of which is the person lunar is defending you see a pattern. Pretty much a copy and paste of Foolishness' post on him on Day 2 that can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888¤tpage=54#1073 You add in a little flavor and change the words around to try to present it like it's your own analysis but it's been said and done better by foolishness. Foolishness summed it up nicely as "Your PM to me didn't match up with what you did". You basically took a roundabout way of saying that. That's disrespectful, taking a dead man's words. Lets move on to day 2. On February 27 2011 14:44 LunarDestiny wrote: Back. Catchup time... So mafia are targeting experienced players like they always do. People are talking about annul's lynch and there is a bus on annul. First of all, I don't think mafia would sacrifice one of their member to make others more safe. So those who voted annul early or greatly accused him aren't likely to be mafia. Those who jump onto the bandwagon or voted late without giving good reasons should be looked at. Post doesn’t say much other than recap generally what everyone was talking about, fairly useless. Oh really now? What about these useless posts? I wonder who wrote them... On February 23 2011 15:46 LastArgument wrote: As you asked what I found troublesome about this post. as per the town guide found http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=188179 You did what would be as general talking. Rather than being specific with the use of the roles you mention you instead mention generalities. It also a post that lacks emphasis on the fundamental skill in which it has been suggested towns need to play by which is behavioural analysis. This and factoring in your earlier claim makes it seem fairly odd no? So basically you explained what general talking is; which is explained in the guide anyway. On February 28 2011 04:42 LastArgument wrote: I have spent some time trying to organize my thoughts and here is some of what I have thought on. First off two players stand out more than others to me. Icanflylow(now bumatlarge) and LSB. I know LSB has been analyzed by barundar. There is however one post that strikes me as particularly useless made by LSB that should be used as a reason for an obvious lynch. This post ranks players in three catagories. 1 being the “top players” 2 being ones who have experience or shown to have it 3 being people who have less experience than 2 4 being new players. However, if you start reading the post more carefully, you will realize it’s a post indicating how the mafia “should” hit people to avoid off the radar. Now, a mafia reading this post now knows how to properly divide hits to maximize the team from dying. It doesn’t directly say how we should be saving those people, or how to analyze them. (note: he makes a short post on “how to use this list” right after but essentially says its useless till day 4-5). This list didn’t provide people who should be dt checked, it didn’t provide a list of who should be medic protected. It instead provided a long post that doesn’t help the town as much as it helps mafia. Why make a post as town that shows activity but barely helps the town at all? This could be a lack of experience on my part, but it surprises me this post was made without further detailing or breaking down of how the town can use the information aside from “bide and wait till people die to pin the reds” Bumatlarge This is his second post in the game, he clears one player of suspicion, FoS two players, one of which is responsible for the most pro town idea this game. It isn’t much to go on, but based on all the pages the thread has, the only thing he was able to comment on was the annul lynch? And do generalization FoS on players without anything solid? Seems off to me. And then you go on to talk extensively about the list, when that is covered by THE VERY SAME GUIDE YOU JUST LINKED under the category: Talking about issues that allow mafia to easily blend in Talking about it is easy and pretty much anyone can take a side whether against the list or not due to differing people's opinions on it combined with people's different levels of paranoia. You can't really pin someone just cause they are AGAINST the list or FOR the list. You then go on to talk about LD's votes and criticize them...let's look at yours On February 25 2011 04:59 LastArgument wrote: I will be voting Icanflylow until a more suitable target can be brought up. As of now there is too much on either side of the fence to lynch one of gm/annul/chaoser/ice whereas icanflylow has posted once in the thread jumping on a bandwagon and not providing real input into the game. This vote may change depending on arguments brought forward, however 1 post to poorly justify ones vote on a bandwagon seems far to scum like to ignore at this moment. If he has been active in pm's someone let me know so that my view of him may be changed, but as of right now he seems the least contributing member of the game. ##vote icanflylow and On March 03 2011 08:57 LastArgument wrote: I'm heading out for a bit and just got home from work and should be back before voting. However, until then. ##vote Jbright Yeah....I don't think I need to cover what Foolishness has already covered in terms of voting. Foolishness points out pretty concisely that you've read the guide and that you've clearly had the ability to think and post constructively, but you didn't. At 16 total posts, I'd say you've been trying to hide all game real hard, only really posting big posts when you needed to, like now. Godfather, you going down. | ||
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On March 05 2011 07:16 LSB wrote: Um... why would I shoot Barundar if another vig was going to do it? LOL....no comment, I gotta head out but all I can say to that is LOL | ||
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You're an idiot an a fool if you don't see the point in lynching LSB and how it takes precedence over Kev. He has acted scummy all game and is now irrevocably tied to LA. If LSB flips vigi than it's 100% confirmed that LA is vet since I very much doubt that a medic protected him/ If LSB flips red than LA is probably red as well along with anyone that DIDN'T want to vote LSB if he flips red. I welcome any analysis on my posting, I've been actively scum hunting both in game and out. This whole game you've been piggybacking off foolishness' analysis, write your damn own. Plus that huge picture is annoying as fuck, use a smaller picture please. | ||
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Keep in mind Jbright, when posed with the alternative of Icemac, got almost no support day 2. Yet suddenly when he was up against the alternative of Seraph, he got a lot more questionable voters with bs reasons and we very narrowly lynched Seraph. Also this is bullshit and a blatant misrepresentation of the facts of that day. On Day 2 we were focused on LSB/Barundar/Icemac with Foolishness coming in two hours before the vote ended to suggest LD. I don't remember Jbright ever entering into the conversation as a legitimate alternative. | ||
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LSB gets lynched and he flips vigi, we have a confirmed townie in LA don't we? Unless medic protected him? Which I highly doubt? If LSB gets lynched and flips red we have the rest of the mafia team (LA+everyone against this lynch) I didn't even know LSB got protected. Why wasn't medic protecting foolishness and only protecting LSB? This is quite a coincidence that all this shit is just happening to one guy. | ||
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The guilty part is you trying to subtly deflect the annul lynch, while hiding that you are trying to do that. This isn't " i dont think annul is a good lynch," which anyone mafia or town could say. This is "i secretly dont want to lynch annul but i dont want you to know that so im going to but maybe just maybe we can have him as a fallback option aka if my team cant get another suspect up there." Think about how convoluted your logic is. You're saying I said I didn't want him to be lynched but also saying I wanted him to be lynched but at the same time secretly don't want him lynched. WTF kind of logical loops did you jump through to get to that conclusion? I said I don't know if he's mafia or not but I am down with voting for him. It was DAY ONE for christ sake, who the fuck can seriously say with 100% confidence that they know someone is going to be mafia? All I know is that he was detrimental to town and wouldn't be good for us down the road. This was the same reasoning foolishness gave for his votes, that he would rather have someone active and suspicious of being mafia down the road and lynch someone who was suspicious but not active lynched right now. It gets rid of those DETRIMENTAL TO TOWN. Inactive+suspicious=better lynch than active+suspicious. I can go back and quote him on this. If you want to ask around, I was one of the first to get on his (annul's) case. Go ahead, ask around. BTW, this is exactly what mafia would want to do at this point, split the vote. First they jump on kev and then they jump on me, making it three people to vote for where they can last minute jump. | ||
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On March 06 2011 06:24 Jackal58 wrote: LA is not confirmed in any way shape or form. I was aware of who LSB shot well before LA claimed to have been hit. Why would he not be confirmed? LSB said he shot LA. LA claims he is vet. There's two ways this would go down. IF LSB is actually VIGI and shot LA then unless a medic protected LA (WHICH I DOUBT SINCE HE WAS SUSPECTED OF BEING MAFIA), LA is vet. IF LSB IS MAFIA THEN THEY BOTH LYING!!! | ||
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On March 06 2011 06:34 Ser Aspi wrote: Nothing you say matters. We both know that what I said is true. Now you are getting scared and your demeanor has changed completely. That wasn't in the script now eh? Your choice is to squirm and reveal the last mafia member or take this like a man and hope that guy can save the game. Your call brodooski. lol, you're funny. scum calling town scum, priceless. My demeanor changed cause I'm excited. You know why? Cause this is mafia making their last big play. Obviously you all know how it's going to go down if you fail this one lynch. Because LSB lied about who he hit for reasons known only to LSB. LSB believes LA is town for reasons known only to LSB. I know that LSB hit bumatlarge. I know a medic absorbed a hit on LSB. Why LSB is trying to get himself killed instead of LA we don't know. This is not my opinion alone. There are others involved that cannot speak or town is truly pooched. But you know most of this. How can we confirm ANY OF THIS AS REAL TRUTH. You said LSB LIED?! LOLOL, you're saying a lie is going to lead to the truth. So let's add that as another reason for him being red. LAL | ||
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On March 06 2011 06:46 Jackal58 wrote: I'm not asking anybody to believe LSB. I'm asking town to trust me. A variety of blues have. I gave you 2 confirmation options. Neither will confirm anything other than LSB is a vigi or that I'm a vanilla townie. I would prefer if town needs to go that route that they lynch me. Because lynching LSB will allow scum to exploit an apparent confirmation of LA. That is a lie. I am their mouthpiece because I am just a vanilla townie. There's some inconsistencies in your story. LA said he's vet and got hit. This means either mafia hit him or vigi hit him. If no one claims then it's assumed either he is lying or mafia hit him. This can be confirmed and is simple. If vigi claims then supposed vigi can be lynched and the other will be confirmed and is simple. There is never a need to lie in that situation. Why would someone who didn't shoot him, say they shot him to give him creditability? To town, this is UNCONFIRMABLE. Also, since you are just a "vanilla townie", why are you part of this circle? What confirmed that you are indeed town? | ||
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On March 06 2011 07:53 LSB wrote: So mafia decided to hit Foolishness, Bum and also some random dude named LA? All to attempt to confirm LSB? I'm more inclined to believe that Annul is town. Oh wait, he flipped red. Or mafia stacked foolishness and hit Bum and then used the discrepancy in hits to tell this pretty little LA/LSB bullshit circle story. | ||
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So your saying that the Mafia somehow convinced LA the vet to claim that he was hit? You're mafia, LA is mafia. There was no need to convince, both of you are on the same team. | ||
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On March 06 2011 08:08 LSB wrote: Your argument was that if LA is town, I am not confirmed. And now you admit that if LA flips town, I am confirmed. Don't twist my words please, I said both of you are mafia. I never said if LA flips town, you are confirmed. I would never say that because that is not the truth. LA flipping town doesn't tell us a damn thing about you. You flipping tells us a damn lot about LA. | ||
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If you get lynched and flip vigi, then that means LA is 99.9% confirmed (leaving 0.1% out due to crazy reasons that for some reason a medic protected him). Medics should have NOT been protecting him given foolishness' clear town play and also his final words on LA. I'm willing to trust foolishness over you any day. | ||
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I'll post more postgame but my logic makes sense. LSB claimed vigi, LA said he got hit and survived. In that situation you always kill vigi to confirm the person who got hit. Look over previous games where this happened. It leads to 100% confirmed townie (unless of medic protect on a mafia). | ||
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On March 09 2011 11:55 LSB wrote: You are an anti town player and causes more damage than help to the town. Someone mafia wants to keep around. PL BM EZPZ lawl, maybe, maybe not =p | ||
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On March 09 2011 22:58 gryffindor wrote: No, Jackal, I don't blame you. You're not an idiot, you're just playing the game. On March 09 2011 17:47 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Get out of my thread now. I think you should quit while you're not too far behind dude... | ||
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On March 10 2011 08:30 kevconsim wrote: Now im positive that Jackal is town for reasons i am not allowed to discuss. If we should claim to anyone i guess it should be him. Why aren't you allowed to discuss it? =] | ||
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obvs, most pro town move imo | ||
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LSB wishes luck too lol (wants to save 2999 and 3k) lol at the casters "no one knows him" | ||
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yumlicious | ||
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On March 15 2011 11:17 Kavdragon wrote: Actually I had Foolishness pegged as scum early on, and you as the most obviously town player for almost the entire game. Agree lol, you were so town it was cute lol | ||
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On March 15 2011 11:27 GMarshal wrote: so chaoser, town circle again next game? I won't trust you this time though lolol ok. You know why darm died day 1? Cause of what he said in our QT. He was like, so should we claim to one another? Total blue snipe. Also, yes, all the blue kills were me, my team didn't even help me with kill picks. Ah well, it was fun to chill on IRC with LD | ||
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On March 15 2011 11:35 kitaman27 wrote: Grats town! ^_^ I would be interested to hear the mafia strategy as they probably had the least amount of thread presence I've ever seen. Thanks for hosting RoL/Meapak. Pretty much nothing. annul had this whole idea day 1 to draw fake heat onto himself but too many town got on him that in the end he got lynched. After that pretty much mafia went inactive except for me and dec I think. Seraph disappeared for a long time and then came back and disappeared minutes before he was suppose to claim blue to buy us another day. Then LD disappeared for a weekend. Cubed just didn't post a lot in thread or in QT. I started a IRC but aside from LD and, once in a while, Seraph (once), I think RoL was the person that most frequented it and talked to me. I was more organized with Barundar and GMarshal than my own team I felt like at times lol. After a while my only goal was to get to LYLO cause I had 6 votes in my hand at the time, all 4 mafia + barundar and GM which would give me majority as long as we got to 6 first over the other candidate. If town wasn't organized it was ezpz. LSB would have gotten lynched too if MK hadn't confirmed him I feel like and I wasn't out celebrating my birthday (2 hours till end of day, sigh). I knew dec and I had townies thinking we were town so as long as we got to LYLO we would have won. But then I got lynched and from then on it was GG | ||
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squareout=cubed we win=annul LaDoom=LD Mabell=Seraph 2dec=deconduo | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
darmo 10 02-24-2011 04:15 PM ET (US) Hey guys, sorry i'm so busy, the survivor game takes up a lot of time. I agree with the LaL policy as it is very rare that a townie needs to lie. Yeah, not sure about jackal either, but it's really hard to go off anything yet. I'm always really confused on day 1. Do we plan on claiming to each other? If one of you guys are scum, then that could spell disaster for the rest of us. The slip lol | ||
chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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