TL Mafia XXXVII - Page 3

On February 25 2011 10:37 LunarDestiny wrote:

OK. Comment on theses (using more than one line please)

-People are saying you are very aggressive.

-Also LSB's points of you:

On February 27 2011 12:17 GMarshal wrote:
Also while I'm bored (read, should be doing work) I'm going to go ahead and post my thoughts on all the accusations and FoS that have been thrown around since the day began almost 24 hours ago.

So the first real development is Coag posting a vote against cube, which is an ok move as we need to pressure the more inactive players, jackal does the same a little bit later, because it bears repeating here is Jackal's handy list of players with few posts

+ Show Spoiler +

note that IcanFlyLow was replaced

then I post with a little bit of thought as to what the kills mean for us, and repeate my NO CLAIM message, which chaoser and LSB repeat in the following posts, still at this point nothing exciting has happened and then we get the first real interesting post

Jackal after saying not to claim goes ahead and points a FoS at gryffindor, he dosen't provide any backing for me to comment on, so I hope he takes the time to make a post with some actual analysis other than "he claimed vet" which is actually a scummy move, but not enough on its own to make a judgment one way or the other.

Grryfindor then does an OMGUS vote against jackal using as his defense "I voted for annul" which is at best a flimsy defense, but then again the attack was flimsy too. My only concern is that gryffindor dosn't point this out an demand an explanation (the rational choice to defend himself) but rather resorts to an OMGUS, which is a poor defense most times.

Coag then points out that gryffindor is emphasizing the fact that he voted for scum way too much and that that may be a scum tell, I am inclined to agree with coagulation on that one, in fact I would really like it if jackal fleshed out his attack against gryffindor to see what kind of defense gryffindor might try to put up.

Gryffindor then goes ahead and defends himself, since I want to really analyze his defense I'm going to quote his post and go point by point

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next decon posts he calls out gryffindor on a couple of the things I mentioned + on lying, which is a good call

also in reply to "GMarshal, I feel you gotta step up. It looks like you tried to save annul near the end." I have no real defense, I did try to save annul as I thought he was town and it was LSB going for a grudge lynch, but let me say that being wrong about someone does not make me scum.

chaoser then says he likes ohN's posts although there are only 3, which is dissapointing, still a contribution by chaoser, not much to say on it

barundar then casts a FoS on LSB, I think LSB is playing pro-town and knowing LSB if he is scum he will continue to be active and slip up eventually, so I wouldn't wast a vote on him yet, although keep your eyes on him and watch out for scummy plans.

LSB then does a pretty in depth analysis of barundar, however I think LSB is wrong, although he says its not OMGUS, I get the feeling that it really is, barundar defending annul does not make him scum, and bar was convinced jackal was scum before the wagon started (we discussed it in PM) he just did not want to leave an analysis early to be buried in the discussion between Gryffindor and I, while he was away. So I think LSB's point 1 is just outright wrong. Point 2 is interesting but I would not read too much into contradictions although I feel they aren't as contradictory as LSB thinks they are.

Barundar promises a case against LSB, which I am anxious to see and analyze.

More back and forth between LSB ensues, I'm going to wait on Barundar's analysis of LSB before really discussing it

why then agrees with LSB to pressure Barundar which is ok, and then does something really good, he calls an inactive out, specifically he pegs Beneather, gj why although I still want to see you post more as you still feel lurkerish to me

LSB then makes his list post, which I fully endorse, its a great idea and I give LSB +1 karma point for it, makes him seem like town in my eyes, some debate back and forth about it but we all agree it seems like a good idea, chaoser points out possible scummyness with LSB taking a leadership position, and questioning leaders is important for outing scum so chaoser seems more townie in my eyes for it

just my general responses to things, feel free to question me/debate anything I say in here, as the point of this is to get some discussion going

On February 28 2011 04:46 CubEdIn wrote:
Hi again peoples.

Here's a crappy cell-phone pic of yesterday!
+ Show Spoiler +

Now, to the issues at hand.
Obviously, the most pressing issue is LSB vs Barundar.
LSB:
Mostly, the most trouble I have with this is that, if Barundar is right, we have to kill someone who really pushed a red on day 1. That's all.
We shouldn't really do this. Here is why:
- If LSB is town, and he's as good as people say he is, then he will be targeted by mafia, sooner or later.
- If LSB is red, he already outed a team-mate. If mafia is as ballsy as Barundar says, then they might do something equally strange in order to clear LSB. In which case, it spells good for town.

So I have no idea why so many people are going along with this.
At least give LSB one-two more days and see how the game goes. You can't possibly want one of the more experienced players to die, after pushing a red, based entirely on "he could have played this exactly the same if he was red". True, but that's not a convincing argument. Not for me anyway.

There are just two things that make me not dismiss this completely:
1. Harry Potter Mafia, when LSB seemed very, very pro-town in the thread, and he was scum. It can be said that he was Snape so he might have known he was ultimately town-aligned, but at the time he was in our scum team, yet he played very pro-town in the thread (or at least make it seem that way). This could be a more advanced version of that.
2. The "once he flips red" made it seem extremely confident. Which is a bit weird since it was day one. I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be that confident in day 1.

Barundar:
I don't know if Barundar is red or town, but I honestly don't think it is something that mafia would do.
Let's think for a second here, take what Barundar said:
The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff.
It's kinda hard to make up so much stuff just to try and sink LSB, and even if you do (say, Barundar is red and LSB is town), then it doesn't make any sense because Barundar would die next night for sure, so it would basically be two mafia down just to kill LSB.

So if he is red (and they want LSB dead), it's just a really bad move, because once LSB flips town, he's dead.
If he's town, it's an even worse move, because if LSB is town, then Barundar will most likely get lynched as well, and you will have wasted two lynches, and two of the better players and get absolutely nowhere.

So here's what I'm saying:
1. Think really well about who to vote for.
2. FoS on those who voted on LSB with saying "oh wow that was a good analysis" but didn't really bother to THINK about it and the other possiblities and the outcomes. I'm sure there's at least a few mafia among them who were oh-so-glad an experienced townie is being targeted.
Here are a few examples:

Yeah, that's a good freaking reason. Why would you bother thinking for yourself when someone posted a 3-part-post? No mafia writes that much!


This seems scummiest to me:
"mafia probably just got some lucky snipes" - something of a 'reverse-gloating', being happy with the kills but trying to look very pro-town by saying almost nothing.
"Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players" - umm, yeah, we can tell that based on... ummm.... ?! slip?!
"I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plausible" - i like the risk of killing one of the best town players on the 50-50% he's red.
(I'm saying 50-50 because he said it's "plausible", not likely or anything else)

Of course, my whole theory tumbles if LSB is indeed red. But we are basing this solely on the idea that the mafia team pushed Annul to a lynch on day one, which is a massively ballsy thing to do.
I'm not saying LSB is town, but at least give it more time to develop, just don't claim to him or whatever if you don't trust him.

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As for Jackal, I didn't think he was scum, and I wanted to post a few bits based on Mafia 36 that made me think it was unlikely that he is red, but then he gave up on Gryph and voted LSB based on the fact that it's either him or Barundar, again, being certain that one of them is red, which no player should do so early in the game.

That's about enough for now, as I still want to look over the posts and see if I can find someone worthy of my vote.
But unless something really scummy pops up, it's definitely not gonna be LSB or Barundar. Not this time band-wagon-man!