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Ok I understand all the analysis, but you're missing one point:
If you are all correct, and you are saying that mafia only used ONE role-block, then why are we instantly assuming it was LSB who lied?
I am only asking because I see no good reason for LSB to lie, other than to semi-confirm himself as town.
I'm just saying, if I was red, and I wanted to pull something like this, I wouldn't be claiming Role-Block from the first few hours of the day, I would wait and see if nobody else claims, because it's "unsafe" to do that so early.
The only way I see it is if he saw 3 kills and figured that mafia don't have any more KPs to use.
Not that I have anything against Jackal, I really don't, but I don't know why people are hating on LSB and nobody is really pushing Jackal.
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Let me put it another way:
I don't think Jackal is particularly suspicious, I find that other players are suspicious for not trying to make a case against Jackal as well (particularly bum & chaoser).
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And one last thing:
Two games ago, someone said to me (I dunno if it was Barundar or LSB or someone else, doesn't matter), that you have to lynch for information. Who do we get most information out of?
I would guess Jbright because it gives us more information on the people "tied" to him (Seraph and LD, was it? Or someone else I'm missing, I didn't have time to go back through the thread all the way).
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On March 03 2011 05:18 Barundar wrote:
And one more thing cubed, why would you want to lynch Jbright over seraph, who has a few analysis he hasnt responded to, and is leading in votes? What do you actually think of Seraph and LSB?
Either is fine with me. Be it Jbright, Seraph or Chaoser.
I chose Jbright because I saw a post where someone was grouping them together (JBright/Seraph/LD i think but I can't find it right now).
I need to look through the thread again, but it was basically saying that if one of them is red it's highly likely that all three of them are.
If it comes to it, I'll look, but, as I said, I'm ok with either.
And to a lesser extent, I'd be ok with LD, but he seems to have picked up his posting a bit so I'm not willing to peg him as scum just yet.
I am very much against the LSB lynch though, since he's one of the more experienced players, and people seem to be quite quick at jumping on the wagon. Bumatlarge made some interesting points, but it seems that we are dismissing the day-1 lynch which was largely attributed to LSB.
Of course you can say it was luck (as he was probably gonna buss annul anyway), or that it's a complicated mafia plan, but the fact of the matter is that it got us a dead mafia.
Also, Barundar, you're saying that you want to be lynching the mafia, but are you 100% LSB is red? Are we going over that whole "nobody should be sure" thing again?
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On March 03 2011 05:56 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +Bumatlarge made some interesting points, but it seems that we are dismissing the day-1 lynch which was largely attributed to LSB. LSB attributed it to LSB. Show nested quote +Also, Barundar, you're saying that you want to be lynching the mafia, but are you 100% LSB is red? Are we going over that whole "nobody should be sure" thing again? I picked up on an obvious flaw in your argument. You basicly said: I get the argument and I think that one of them is red. But I think someone should have raised suspecion against Jackal as well, so I think we should lynch Chaoser. How does that even make sense? If you believe the argument, then you should be discussing Jackal and LSB, yet you don't seem to be willing to do that. I never said I was 100 % certain LSB is red, but I never stopped hunting for mafia, or talked about lynching for information like you 
You misunderstand.
I said that I get the argument that one of them could be red, since we don't get where the extra action comes from, but I am suspicious of the fact that people are so quick to jump on LSB, and not Jackal.
I don't think that Jackal is red, and I don't see why LSB would claim being Role-Blocked.
I never said I'm 100% sure that one of them is red. If LSB flips green are we lynching Jackal, based on your argument?
I'm not "discussing" Jackal and LSB because I already said (and not once) that they seem town to me. Albeit there's a lot of WIFOM that can lead to LSB being red. No actual proof though.
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Yeah I'm also going to go to bed soon, and I'm most inclined in voting for Jbright. Any lurker would be equally good in my eyes.
But I agree with Foolishness, mostly. I don't think that lynching one of the two will automatically confirm the other though, I'm just going with what people have been posting in the thread so far about them.
I feel rather left out actually, since I've only been PMing GM, I feel I'm only part of half the game.
So I'm gonna go wash up and think about who I want to vote between Jb, Seraph, or LastArgument. I'd most like the lurkers to be mod-killed actually, but I got this urge to sheep Foolishness whenever he posts (no joke).
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And by "one of the two" I mean Jb or Seraph.
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Ok I'll vote for JBright as well.
I went with Foolishness' idea and thought hard about the two: Seraph and JBright.
There are more reasons to pick Jbright though:
1. His inactivity (I found like 12 posts of his, as opposed to 29 of Seraph, I don't know if I counted right but that's half the posts either way), I know this doesn't mean much but it's a start.
2. Coag's reasoning: He brought him up early, then others have been brought up. It's pretty clear that this mafia team is not defending their members, since Annul's lynch went pretty easy, but derailing lynches is a must if they want to survive. I'm inclined to think this can also be a clue.
3. I have looked at Foolishness' analysis of Seraph and I'm not convinced. It's basically a posting habits analysis, and albeit pretty conclusive, it doesn't necessarily mean he is red. Yes, he's behaving oddly, but not scummier than JB.
That being said though, even if Jbright flips green, I think it's a good idea to get rid of Seraph tomorrow (meaning, not lose track of him after nightfall). I went back a good number of pages and didn't find any relevant clues that the two are tied together, so I don't think that they are very much connected by anything other than WIFOM. Or, if a vet wants to shoot someone, I think he would make a better target than LSB. My two cents.
##vote JBright
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On March 03 2011 08:39 Barundar wrote:
#Vote Seraph
The case against seraph is a lot stronger than against Jbright.
How so?
I'm not mocking, I'm genuinely asking, because I've been over the past 10 pages or so and I think JB is much scummier.
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On March 03 2011 08:54 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2011 08:44 CubEdIn wrote:On March 03 2011 08:39 Barundar wrote:
#Vote Seraph
The case against seraph is a lot stronger than against Jbright. How so? I'm not mocking, I'm genuinely asking, because I've been over the past 10 pages or so and I think JB is much scummier. I feel like the Jbright analysis is based more on "scumslips" than actual behavioral analysis. Quite contrary to the conclusions drawn by Ser Aspi, I don't see Jbright answering as a pressured scum. His silly reasons and distance from the game tells me bored townie rather than scum.
On March 03 2011 08:56 deconduo wrote:
I really dislike it when people tell me I have to vote for one of XYZ. However I agree that the votes are too spread out at the moment.
Given a choice between those three I'm going to stick with my gut from yesterday.
Unvote
##Vote LSB
So, at first you agree with me that it's suspicious that people bussed LSB, while ignoring Jackal, which can mean that at least some of the mafia were happy he's being targeted and jumped on board. But then you go like 'fuck it' and vote for him anyway.
And voting patterns don't mean much, especially if you point them out so soon, so that Mafia will know to start switching them up the following days.
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Gah. I posted wrong. This is what it should have looked like:
On March 03 2011 08:57 LastArgument wrote:
I'm heading out for a bit and just got home from work and should be back before voting. However, until then.
##vote Jbright
Phew, that's good. And here I was thinking you won't post anything of use.
On March 03 2011 08:54 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2011 08:44 CubEdIn wrote:On March 03 2011 08:39 Barundar wrote:
#Vote Seraph
The case against seraph is a lot stronger than against Jbright. How so? I'm not mocking, I'm genuinely asking, because I've been over the past 10 pages or so and I think JB is much scummier. I feel like the Jbright analysis is based more on "scumslips" than actual behavioral analysis. Quite contrary to the conclusions drawn by Ser Aspi, I don't see Jbright answering as a pressured scum. His silly reasons and distance from the game tells me bored townie rather than scum.
That's true, but Ser Aspi made equally reasonable posts about JB as well (in day one as well as day two). I don't particularly like the guy, but he did bring up some good points, and he seems to think that both are scum, if anything, JB more than Seraph.
I suggest we get rid of both, and whoever wins the tally gets lynched while the other one gets vig-shot.
But I am sticking with Jbright for tonight. The fact that a bunch of alternative suggestions popped up makes me think Coag may be on to something.
On March 03 2011 08:56 deconduo wrote:
I really dislike it when people tell me I have to vote for one of XYZ. However I agree that the votes are too spread out at the moment.
Given a choice between those three I'm going to stick with my gut from yesterday.
Unvote
##Vote LSB
So, at first you agree with me that it's suspicious that people bussed LSB, while ignoring Jackal, which can mean that at least some of the mafia were happy he's being targeted and jumped on board. But then you go like 'fuck it' and vote for him anyway.
And voting patterns don't mean much, especially if you point them out so soon, so that Mafia will know to start switching them up the following days.
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Ok I'm off to sleep. Hope you'll stick to these two suspects at least, and not derail the thing in the last 3 hours like usual. 
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Good Yob town.
However, as I said before the lynch, we should not lose focus on either of the two.
Also, I think we should have a short discussion of who the Vig should hit (IF he were to hit someone tonight).
Do we have a solid target for a vig hit? I'd like to see people who are lurking go belly-up, JBright included.
I also don't like how Gryph is adding himself on the medic protect list just because he voted for both scum. I mean, I know it's up to the medics in the end, but I find that that move was almost as to say "I'm confirmed town".
Right now, I'm not putting it past anyone to be red, as Mafia seemed to have no issue with busing so far.
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On March 04 2011 01:43 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2011 22:35 Jackal58 wrote:On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...? How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back? I assumed when he said round-up, that you could get 4 kills if it was at 3.5. I didn't think you could throw in two roleblocks and squeak out 3 kills with 3.5. You want to take this outside bro?
Ok but why would mafia RB two people and kill three instead of killing four at this stage of the game.
Am I missing something here?
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Morning.
I will respond to this first, even though nobody followed-along. I don't want to be accused of trying to sweep it under the carpet.
On March 04 2011 08:11 why wrote:
Day 1:
All throughout Day 1 Cubedin tries to say that annul isn't the best lynch while at the same time making sure he joins the wagon once it reaches the sweet-spot of after the point of no return but before it look way scummy to join the wagon. He also refuses to commit to an opinion.
I always try to vote once, as I don't like changing my vote. That's why I do it in the last 12 hours of the day or so. Also, during the last 4-5 I am most likely asleep, maybe that's why I hit the "sweet spot" you are mentioning. But it was the first day, and nobody out-right defended annul, so you can't really say that I'm mafia because I soft-defended him. I defended others as well, and I always went on the idea of "let's not be 100% sure, because we can't ever be sure".
On March 04 2011 08:11 why wrote:and also attacks the latest addition to the annul bandwagon, Ser Aspi, with this: Show nested quote +This is weird, really weird. Mostly because it came RIGHT after LSB made some decent points against Annul. If he wanted to vote for Annul he'd have had a lot of damn good reasons by just "believing" LSB's analysis. But instead he goes and basically OMGUS-votes Annul. Why on earth would you do something like that?
Ser Aspi, I don't like. Mostly because he's being very quiet and just comes up with a FoS + Vote. Nobody is questioning that, and that always made me suspicious. However, he did pin down Seraph, so i'm fairly sure he is town at this point. I never really FoSed Jackal though. Not intentionally anyway.
On March 04 2011 08:11 why wrote:
The points he makes are fairly valid, but he is clearly arguing against the annul lynch at this point. Note that he also throws 2 FoS's around (on Ser Aspi and Jackal) and then backs off them by saying that we should vote for people off one or two votes. In other words, he is being extremely indecisive and wants to leave his options open. Definitely something a scum waiting to see how the wind blows on annul would post.
(sorry about not reply directly under some posts, I'm trying to hurry-up here, but I think this is understandable)
On March 04 2011 08:11 why wrote:Note that he spends the first half of the post getting worked up about being told he should bandwagon. I interpret this as the real CubedIn, he doesn't like to bandwagon unless he has been convinced that the vote is best for town. Then, as he himself acknowledges, he goes against his own tendencies to vote for annul even though he still doesn't think its the best lynch: Show nested quote +I still think that it's a bad idea overall to lynch someone with decent experience on day 1. I would much rather have annul as a day 2 lynch or so, but I already explained why I really doubt Icemac is town, and his posts made me think so even more. So, why would he do this? Well, one explanation is that no one is scummier exists (although I think he says in the quote above that icemac is more likely mafia than annul, pretty sure there's a typo somewhere). The better explanation that fits all the data is that Cubed is mafia and wants to get on the annul bandwagon since it is really likely annul will be lynched.
You're half right here, but you're taking it out of context. I did this not once, but twice. The day 2 vote was not one of my primary targets either. If you'll look at some posts you'll see that I stated that I find others (OriginalName, Chaoser) scummier, but I didn't want to have vote-spreads.
Now I admit I was wrong about ON, and probably Ser Aspi, but even if I would have gone with my guts and voted for them, you will have said that I tried to keep away from making a decision.
The same goes for day 3. I wanted to kill one of JBright or Seraph. I thought there is more proof pointing towards JBright and I explained this, thoroughly. I never tried to soft-defend Seraph, or derail the lynch. In fact, I went to bed quite early, and the votes were almost even. I expected vigs to hit the other target anyway (and I actually asked for this in the thread), so I didn't really care who was being lynched.
Also, I might remind you that you don't really know if JBright is scum or not. If he flips red, your whole argument goes down in flames.
On March 04 2011 08:11 why wrote:
To start with, CubedIn needs to make a vote at this point because he is leaving for the night. As mafia, he needs to vote for JBright at this point because it was close between JBright and Seraph. Of course he could just be a town voting for the wrong person. However, this explanation doesn't hold up as we realize that Cubed can't come up with many reasons to vote JBright. Reasons 1 and 2 are both questionable reasons at best and 3 is essentially saying why Seraph isn't likely mafia. Never does Cubed actually come up with a reason that JBright is mafia based on JB's actual posts, when this is the first thing a townie would do.
And then, in the last paragraph, Cubed says that we should continue to look at Seraph after the lynch. This covers him in case Seraph dies and makes him sound like he was almost suspicious enough of Seraph to vote him, but was just a little more suspicious of JBright. In other words, it is a way to distance himself from his own opinion.
Again, I never said that we should not vote Seraph. I tried to explain why I voted for Jbright, but you are saying that the reasons are not solid enough. What exactly would you want me to post? I have no actual proof that either of them is mafia. I went through the thread, I read the accusations on them brought by other players, I counted their posts, etc, and I found JB to be the better lynch.
On March 04 2011 08:11 why wrote:
And here Cubed pushes for JBright a bit, but again not hard enough to arouse suspicion should Seraph get lynched. For someone who thinks that a Seraph/JBright lynch is pretty much a wash, he seemed to be pushing for JBright pretty hard.
Conclusion: Cubedin acted the same in both scum lynches: holding off until the last possible minute to give a solid opinion while subtly defending the scum. He then makes the best possible mafia vote. It could all be coincidence, but given his posting I think he's probably scum.
If it were day, I would vote CubedIn.
Here is where you kinda twist things around:
I never said that the lynch is a wash. If anything, I was claiming that both of them are scum.
I guess that if JB flips red, I'm somewhat cleared, but even without killing JB you should realize that that's the "timing" I have for votes in all mafias so far. I just don't like being wishy-washy and voting for someone unless I'm trying to vote for pressure not vote for lynch.
But you are right about one thing, I may have looked like I'm subtly defending people. I will try not to do that in the future, and be either completely for or completely against.
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Right, now on to today's news.
First of all: regarding the cells: I am not good at playing a PM game.
You can ask everyone to come out, the only one I talked to via PMs was GMarshal. I would much rather post everything in the thread.
The only other PM I got was from gryph:
who are your town reads/scumreads?
who would you be happiest lynching of your scumreads?
why?
I didn't bother replying, as it was a PM that had no essence. He's not sharing any information, and just asking me for my "reads". If I want to post something about someone, I'll do it in the thread, thank you.
Also:
On March 04 2011 17:48 gryffindor wrote:
hey, what's funny is I was going to just type "GG" if i died.
great minds think alike, bro.
Again, trying to be subtly associated with Foolishness.
I am also believing if I die, you all should investigate the JBright wagon.
Because we know Jbright is green and we should lynch all who voted for him?
Cop/Detectives, it is time to claim, in my honest opinion
you have had multiple nights of investigations to make clears
creating town clears is very pro town, and will help us
Yeah, no.
Detectives should only claim if they found one scum (considering there are what, 4 more left, if there were 6 to begin with? it also explains KP (3 scum = 1,5kp + GF = 1 kp, total 2,5KP - 3 kills).
So it would be a trade for a detective for a scum.
Even better, detective should claim to one person whom he trusts the most via PM. That person can just post what the detective said. He will have to post it even if he's mafia, otherwise there will be a lot of suspicion on him.
Statistically speaking, DT has a better chance of claiming to town.
If he openly claims, then he's most likely dead, even with a medic on them (because let's face it, I'm pretty sure Foolishness was protected, but he died anyway).
So no, you seem awfully scummy to me at this point Gryph.
As for the lynch, I will take my time before voting (lololol), as I'm more confused as to why mafia chose to go for bumatlarge.
As much as I'd like to jump on LastArgument, there's a chance that he's just a townie who got green role and got really bored, and just stopped caring. The only think that makes me vote for him right now is the fact that both Foolishness and Ser Aspi picked him.
If anything, the fact that he "failed to vote for either mafia" makes me think he's town, as Mafia bussed Annul, and perhaps Seraph as well.
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Wait wtf, I missed something:
On March 04 2011 13:12 LastArgument wrote:
for all the excitement from this game and looking at the last page and seeing two giant writeup's on me I am amused.
One of you guys / mafia failed pretty hard. I took a hit last night.
So here's the thing:
a) He's lying to prove himself as town - unlikely, unless he's playing the "let's hope town thinks there's one missing KP"
b) He's telling the truth, thus he's a vet. (I really, really doubt medics would protect him).
So either: medics did not protect either of the three, or, there was a vig going for one of them, and the mafia stacked Foolishness.
I find it really hard to believe that mafia did not stack Foolishness. Unless they KNEW medic was not on him.
Did any medic claim to anyone and told them who he'll defend? If so, you should really consider that mafia knew you were not on Foolishness.
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On March 04 2011 21:02 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +As for the lynch, I will take my time before voting (lololol), as I'm more confused as to why mafia chose to go for bumatlarge. How does that sentence even make sense?  Show nested quote +If anything, the fact that he "failed to vote for either mafia" makes me think he's town, as Mafia bussed Annul, and perhaps Seraph as well. That's the first time I hear you say that it was a bus? Care to elaborate? You fishing for medics? Really, I'm having a hard time understanding your "confused" posts. You are confused that bum got killed, but you aren't confused mafia decides to hit a guy who by means of posting during the night was almost guranteed to be a topic today. And you seem really willing to believe him to boot.
Way to take everything out of context buddy.
On March 04 2011 21:02 Barundar wrote:How does that sentence even make sense?
I don't understand why they chose bumatlarge. What's not to understand?
If I were mafia I would go for a lot of other people, like Ser Aspi, LSB, GM, LunarD, etc. Heck, even you would make a better target.
I need to go over bum's posts to see what he did to piss them off.
That's the first time I hear you say that it was a bus? Care to elaborate?
What? I said they bussed annul before. The fact that:
- nobody defends x
- x wins lynch
- x flips red
Indicates a bus.
The fact that it was apparently tied, (7-7?!) means that probably mafia have chosen to throw him under.
Or are you saying that everyone who voted for Seraph is cleared? And 4 of those who voted for JBright are scum right?
You fishing for medics?
Yeah, because that's what I said:
If so, you should really consider that mafia knew you were not on Foolishness.
Not claim, but think that WHOEVER YOU TOLD WHO YOU ARE DEFENDING, might be Mafia.
I never said medic should claim and I never, ever, ever encouraged anyone to claim.
But I guess that's your definition of being "aggressive", putting words in someone's mouth... well you know what I mean.
but you aren't confused mafia decides to hit a guy who by means of posting during the night was almost guranteed to be a topic today
I only noticed that he got hit after I posted the first who things.
And you seem to be awfully sure that the mafia hit him. How so?
I don't see any reason for mafia to hit him, especially since Foolishness just posted about him (Ser also). I believe it was most likely a vigilante. Why are you so quick to dismiss this?
I was just considering the option of mafia hitting him, in light of the 3kps being distributed evenly. But unless a medic informed someone of who they will protect I really have doubts that mafia would just shoot Foolishness once, as, of all people, he is by FAR most likely to be protected.
But ok, let's just put our heads in the ground and have no vigs claim, no medics think about maybe they are trusting the wrong people, and assume that mafia is not thinking their hits through.
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Ok Gryff, answer me only this:
If you were mafia and you wanted to kill Foolishness, would you only use one KP?
I don't know who's putting you on Solid town, as I didn't hear people around here coming to defend you at any point. I'm just saying, you're not addressing any of the accusations I made recently, you're using pure WIFOM "If I were mafia, would I not shift vote"??! Well I don't know man, is JB green??!? Because if they're both red it doesn't really matter who you voted for, right?
Cuz I'm sitting here trying to defend against people that automatically assume that JB is green/blue, and I have no freaking idea why that is.
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On March 05 2011 05:37 LSB wrote:
Oh I feel dumb, Seraph would have been modkilled anyways so there would be no real reason to try to off Jbright, besides just killing one more townie.
I am confused, AGAIN.
Why is this?
If Seraph would have been modkilled, why would we vote for him?
How does Seraph being red prove Jbright is town?
I'm seriously asking, since a lot of people have been going on this already, and I fear I missed something.
Regarding the vig hit:
- why not claim sooner?
- why not Barundar? I get that you called for another vig to hit him, buy why not do it yourself the day after you saw that nobody did.
You were arguing with him, you called for vig, no vig shot him, you called for vig again, and decided to shoot someone else? I'm sorry, but that just doesn't make much sense.
Why did everyone shift focus off Kev? is it because he said "I am townie"?
Bottom line is this:
If nobody else claims vig shot on LA, I am 90% sure that LA is town.
This is because mafia had NO REASON to hit him as Ser and Foolishness just posted about him.
So it was a vig. If it wasn't LSB, and you're not claiming, then you're playing badly, because you're letting LSB confirm himself as town.
True, there might be a big evil plan by mafia, and have them both lie, but it would be extremely risky, as another vig could finish LA off or hit LSB and then they would lose two players (even if there's no lynch). So it doesn't make much sense.
So, as long as there's no other vig, we can assume they're both town.
The only think I really don't get is why did LSB choose LA when he wanted to off Barundar all this time? This is fishy, but I'd rather hear "I had my reasons" then "I didn't wanna stack". Please.
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EPT
