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TL Mafia XXX - Page 44

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BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
August 08 2010 20:48 GMT
#861
I've been thinking about it, trying to find a hole in it for the last hour or so, and so far I find it foolproof. Doesn't mean there isn't a hole, just means I haven't found one

I'm alright with it. Let's do it!
SUNSFANNED
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 08 2010 20:55 GMT
#862
On August 09 2010 00:42 Chezinu wrote:
Well, I can't seem to locate the signal at the moment... I really need some rest, I guess I'll try again once I get some sleep. Maybe with my fresh mind I can get the work done.


***Falls a sleep and starts dreaming***
+ Show Spoiler +

You find yourself on someone's ship.. it seems kind of odd... you feel a bit dazy, yet your totally relaxed.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


The man speaks
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Right after the man opens his mouth, something in you starts to manifest you.. You start seeing things differently..

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +
You laugh... You laugh madly out of control and before you know it... thoughts and conclusions start entering your head..

+ Show Spoiler +
Why would someone be so arrogant to post an enormous painting of himself in his Art room. What? Who has an "art room"? Why isn't he like everyone else and just go to a public art gallery? Who even goes to art galleries? Wait.. why does he want me too look at his paintings? Why is his other hand behind his back? He has a weapon! He is trying to distract me! He wants me dead! I must stop him first!


You use the brown flag.
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


You take badge
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


You also take the guy's weapon. But you decided not to look at it closely. Instead you decide to admire some paintings. Then...

You take space Painting
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


You take the fireball, lighting painting
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


You look around the room
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Before you leave, something has to be done... You just feel it...

You go with your instincts
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


You leave the room
+ Show Spoiler +
Everything just fades away, like it was a dream..

what's the significance in taking the little lines out from under the painting that wasn't taken?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
rastaban
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States2294 Posts
August 08 2010 21:02 GMT
#863
On August 09 2010 05:48 BrownBear wrote:
I've been thinking about it, trying to find a hole in it for the last hour or so, and so far I find it foolproof. Doesn't mean there isn't a hole, just means I haven't found one

I'm alright with it. Let's do it!


I can think of a couple flaws.

Mafia claims Watcher, which is which?
Roles already sent their PMs in
We have random townies showing up
We have more than 1 Watcher
We have more than 1 Tracker,DT, Medic
Target gets framed so we lynch xelin and we don't know which blue we can't trust.

This is why a simple version is better
Tyler: "...damn it, that's StarCraft. Opening doors is what we do. Being the first to find food is the greatest pleasure a player can have!"
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 08 2010 21:16 GMT
#864
if the watcher sees more than 2 or 3 people we know xelin got framed, or there are multiple trackers, which i highly doubt
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Hesmyrr
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Canada5776 Posts
August 08 2010 21:16 GMT
#865
Well, mafia may interrupt the plan but it definitely seems like it'll give us more information about scum; they are forced to fakeclaim or either get crushed by new town circle. Even if there are more than one blue roles, there really cannot be more than two. Just start verifying people's claims - it really shouldn't be that hard to do - and town has this fixed unless somebody starts acting stupid.
"If watching the MSL finals makes you a progamer, then anyone in Korea can do it." - Ha Tae Ki
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
August 08 2010 21:22 GMT
#866
On August 09 2010 06:02 rastaban wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2010 05:48 BrownBear wrote:
I've been thinking about it, trying to find a hole in it for the last hour or so, and so far I find it foolproof. Doesn't mean there isn't a hole, just means I haven't found one

I'm alright with it. Let's do it!


I can think of a couple flaws.

Mafia claims Watcher, which is which?
Roles already sent their PMs in
We have random townies showing up
We have more than 1 Watcher
We have more than 1 Tracker,DT, Medic
Target gets framed so we lynch xelin and we don't know which blue we can't trust.

This is why a simple version is better


1. Watcher will know all the roles that acted, if a green gets a PM saying he acted well... and if a blue acted and didnt get a PM, the watcher is either being safe or some other problem like roleblock or mental issues. A mafia isnt going to start PMing people.
2. Anyone who actually reads the thread will not send a PM yet, and if they did, they would only screw everything up anyway.
3. What?
4. The more the merrier, how is this a bad thing, a watcher PMs a watcher, vice versa and they should realize that they are both watchers. Other wise they stay silent until a safer form of communication is available (Someone claims and they can prove it) If there information matches up, we can be pretty safe in assuming this isnt a problem.
5. The watcher doesnt have to say anything if he gets 20 people visiting one person. He can be pretty satisified with more blues. If there are less then 4 visitors, either mafia missed their boat, or we have a severe blue handicap.
6. I think we can assume this is going to happen, and if it doesnt, oh well. Xelin isnt the crucial part, its that the watcher gets information we can use, he just needs to figure out a way to get it to us.

The only thing I see beneficial in not doing this, is getting lucky with blue actions on night 1, as in DT checking a red, medic saving someone, or some other stuff. It doesnt really hurt us that a watcher who knows he is town, and the only issue would be mafia getting a hold of that info.

Together but separate, like oatmeal
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 08 2010 21:23 GMT
#867
all i'm saying is that xelin might be innocent, even if he comes up red, depending on how many people the watcher saw visit him in the night.

@ LSB: also, assume we only have 1 watcher, what if they die? what if they are inactive, and haven't see the plan? what is the plan's take on the watcher claiming?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
August 08 2010 21:33 GMT
#868
On August 09 2010 06:16 Hesmyrr wrote:
Well, mafia may interrupt the plan but it definitely seems like it'll give us more information about scum; they are forced to fakeclaim or either get crushed by new town circle. Even if there are more than one blue roles, there really cannot be more than two. Just start verifying people's claims - it really shouldn't be that hard to do - and town has this fixed unless somebody starts acting stupid.

If we got a hatter out there, you gotta get a bomb on this brodooski.
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
August 08 2010 21:49 GMT
#869
Rofl wow I thought I was in the penatly game for a second, and saw bill murray talking. Ignore this lol...

@Foolishness: are you referring to hesmyrr?
Together but separate, like oatmeal
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
August 08 2010 21:55 GMT
#870
On August 09 2010 06:23 Bill Murray wrote:
all i'm saying is that xelin might be innocent, even if he comes up red, depending on how many people the watcher saw visit him in the night.

@ LSB: also, assume we only have 1 watcher, what if they die? what if they are inactive, and haven't see the plan? what is the plan's take on the watcher claiming?


This actually brings up a good point. This plan hinges on one person surviving the night, as well as being active enough to notice the plan and agree to it.

It's highly likely he'll survive the night. If he's not paying attention, though... at best the plan is useless, at worst mafia can turn it against us somehow.
SUNSFANNED
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
August 08 2010 22:04 GMT
#871
On August 09 2010 06:23 Bill Murray wrote:
all i'm saying is that xelin might be innocent, even if he comes up red, depending on how many people the watcher saw visit him in the night.

@ LSB: also, assume we only have 1 watcher, what if they die? what if they are inactive, and haven't see the plan? what is the plan's take on the watcher claiming?

Okay, yeah, it hinges on the watcher. I've tried my best to get this flaw fixed as best I've can. I've layed out the plan, I've PMed everyone so the watcher should be alerted of the plan.

The purpose of the plan is to have the watcher claim, and therefore we have a confirmed townie
We're going to protect the watcher after he claiming by busdrivering the watcher with someone random. That way the watcher can't be targeted by the mafia.

Another glitch with the plan would be if XeliN is the only watcher. But looks like from his posts he is not


rastaban, I'm assuming your questions are answered? It sounds like you misunderstood the plan. The purpose would be that it would be impossible for the mafia to guess every person who visited XeliN.
And even if they did, we'll we'd be screwed anyways.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 08 2010 22:05 GMT
#872
Don't worry the watcher will NOT ignore the plan. By the way the first thing they should do is make a post when they log in the next day. Also, if I'm correct watcher is tracked, they'll be seen not visiting anyone? That's the way it usually is anyhow. Just for future reference.
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
August 08 2010 22:11 GMT
#873
On August 09 2010 06:23 Bill Murray wrote:
all i'm saying is that xelin might be innocent, even if he comes up red, depending on how many people the watcher saw visit him in the night.


I think it's pretty much a given that mafia will frame Xelin, in order to mess with the blue count and make it so Xelin is not confirmed. If Xelin comes up anything other than red he's gotta be the GF, is how i'm seeing it.
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
August 08 2010 22:15 GMT
#874
On August 09 2010 06:55 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2010 06:23 Bill Murray wrote:
all i'm saying is that xelin might be innocent, even if he comes up red, depending on how many people the watcher saw visit him in the night.

@ LSB: also, assume we only have 1 watcher, what if they die? what if they are inactive, and haven't see the plan? what is the plan's take on the watcher claiming?


This actually brings up a good point. This plan hinges on one person surviving the night, as well as being active enough to notice the plan and agree to it.

It's highly likely he'll survive the night. If he's not paying attention, though... at best the plan is useless, at worst mafia can turn it against us somehow.

People just have to not be stupid and claim too early until things are confirmed. Maybe that is asking too much, though.
XeliN
Profile Joined June 2009
United Kingdom1755 Posts
August 08 2010 22:47 GMT
#875
Could someone PM my role or what I'm expected of in this plan? I'm slightly confused although only skim read posts in between HoN games so far.
Adonai bless
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
August 08 2010 22:48 GMT
#876
On August 09 2010 07:15 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2010 06:55 BrownBear wrote:
On August 09 2010 06:23 Bill Murray wrote:
all i'm saying is that xelin might be innocent, even if he comes up red, depending on how many people the watcher saw visit him in the night.

@ LSB: also, assume we only have 1 watcher, what if they die? what if they are inactive, and haven't see the plan? what is the plan's take on the watcher claiming?


This actually brings up a good point. This plan hinges on one person surviving the night, as well as being active enough to notice the plan and agree to it.

It's highly likely he'll survive the night. If he's not paying attention, though... at best the plan is useless, at worst mafia can turn it against us somehow.

People just have to not be stupid and claim too early until things are confirmed. Maybe that is asking too much, though.


Yeah i think any plan has to have a built in resiliency to town stupidity. Of course here we face the obstacles of people being too open in PM Land or an inactive watcher. The former is obviously more dangerous.

Say the plan goes through, i think this is the scenario we face:

Watcher gets a list of names. At least one of these names is mafia (framer, roleblocker). The rest are blues. Now maybe the mafia take a gambit and decide not to visit Xelin at all under the pretense that we assume they actually did visit him. And that could fuck with us. But I think framer will visit Xelin for sure in order to make it so the DT doesn't know Xelins role.
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
August 08 2010 22:55 GMT
#877
well actually i'm not sure if the framer would still visit if Xelin is red or godfather.

am i thinking about this the right way? i can't be sure
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Divinek
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Canada4045 Posts
August 08 2010 23:02 GMT
#878
they might not want to visit at all on the off chance they're found out, because there's only certain roles that can visit

but it's a pretty wifom line of reasoning
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Oh goodness me, FOX tv where do you get your sight? Can't you keep track, the puck is black. That's why the ice is white.
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
August 08 2010 23:07 GMT
#879
yeah exactly, it's circular.

i guess at this point it's kinda useless to further speculate and we have to wait and see what happens.
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
August 08 2010 23:18 GMT
#880
On August 09 2010 07:47 XeliN wrote:
Could someone PM my role or what I'm expected of in this plan? I'm slightly confused although only skim read posts in between HoN games so far.

Done
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
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