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On June 09 2010 18:20 DarthThienAn wrote:
WAIT. The clues are juicy but a DT check is better.
I got my information from a source. yo.
onihunter is mafia
Chances of him being miller? Meh, forget it. I'll take my chances. Lynch him today, lynch 3 Lions tomorrow with some other person (vote for double lynch as well)
Sounds good to me. Voted ^^
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All this being said, we should continue with discussions of the clues we have and player analysis. This doesn't mean a freebie day to not be active. ^.~
Is there anyone besides 3L that this clue set can be tied to? I agree it looks really bad for 3L and I would probably lynch based on this, I just want to be sure all our ducks are in line. Also, what killed pyr0? Anyone have any ideas? My first thought is a jellyfish (hah).
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Well, the mafia seems like a reliable role check. Don't think the mafia would use fake role claim tactic or darth lying just to lynch onihunter.
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On June 09 2010 22:43 Misder wrote:
Double lynch tonight with oni and 3 Lions is what everyone is saying.
Two questions to consider:
Is the source reliable that told Darth? (Probably, otherwise if the real DT tells Darth, than the source would be called off)
Is today's clues enough to point to 3 Lions? (I have no past experience in Mafia, and Im not sure if one day's clues is enough to point to one person. If someone can find more clues pointing to 3 Lions, I woul feel more confident in lynching him.
I'll defend myself later. Can anyone explain exactly why they think Im mafia?
We can't double lynch today. We're voting for double to lynch to be "approved" by the town today, we would actually be using it tomorrow.
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but...but...
/puts on foam finger
GO TOWN
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I don't feel that great about the DT check at this point, but I'll go along with onihunter for right now. Definitely voting double lynch tomorrow - I'm pretty confident that both 3 Lions and Hugoboss are Mafia at this point.
For what it's worth, onihunter is also linked to the clues. In his profile it says he's been swimming since 5 years old, which connects to the "floating" clue from the first day post.
This better turn out to be right though. The town may not be a lost cause, but I certainly feel like it's in dire straits. Losing another lynch on a possible townie could be the nails in the coffin.
Going to vote for onihunter+double lynch now. I'll try to look at his post history a bit later, as well as the other analyses of him. Still a lot of time to change our votes if something changes.
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Bandwagon time !!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Still though, I find it unlikely that the mafia or DTA would give up a player just to kill onihunter. Had DTA named crate/MTF or another important person I would have been more suspicious. Did crate already analyse oni day2?
The only thing we need to look out for from what I see is DTA being scum, oni flipping green/blue, and DTA naming some other townie as the "false DT". Else if oni flips green DTA can tell us the False DT and we can lynch him with 3lions or whomever.
And we need to do some catching up. time for a mass hanging.
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I like to think of it this way.
We lynch Onihunter today:
Turns out to be town. We lynch lion and the dt tomorrow.
Turns out to be mafia. We lynch lion and 1 other person tomorrow.
We lynch Lion today:
Turns out to be town. We lynch Onihunter and 1 other person tomorrow.
Turns out to be mafia. We lynch Onihunter and 1 other person tomorrow.
Based on this, it is more worthwhile to lynch Onihunter today. This is based on that both Onihunter and Lion have the same chance of being mafia.
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Hugoboss21, 3 Lions: You two are both inactive and under intense suspicion. If you stay in the game (eg not get modkilled as you both took a warning yesterday), I highly recommend you do a LOT of talking that we might be convinced you are not red.
Obviously you can't defend against the clues directly. Instead you could see where else the clues point to and make cases. Furthermore, talk about who you think is suspicious, who you think is town. Any info you might have you need to give up and not take it to the grave (at least tomorrow before hanging). In these ways you will provide evidence that you are town.
If you fail to do this, I believe you will be hung regardless of what I have to say about it. If you get hung anyway, we will at least have your thoughts and any info you might have had that we can give it credit because you were hung as town.
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Nice to see we are getting somewhere. i almost got worried that our dts were inactive. Now i dont really see too many threats. The only people i would think pose a threat to the town as mafia would darth yellow crate or mtf. i highly suggest rolechecking crate and mtf, and even though my vibes say no, its still necessary to know what they are for our survival. darth and yellow can still be red but highly doubt it from lack of clues and posting.
I've got some things to post later, but after seeing who these candidates for lynching are, we have an easy win if the four above are town. If any others want to add important persons to this list, feel free to say it.
I feel mafia more about solidifying the town as a community rather then searching for mafia. That part comes naturally. This game is starting to show me that mafia will naturally show aversion to the towns survival as a whole.They will pick the lengthy option in a lynch that will give more time, because they just have to outlast the towns self decay. Once the town starts to gain momentum, you'll start to see certain people get desperate. The most dangerous mafia who feels hes safe and calm. If the town starts to get in a commotion, mafia start to gett a little reckless and get active. And they cant avoid it, so ican say it without worry. I just dont want any higher ups showing they are comfortable.
completely down with ousting oni, enabling the double andby then getting more clues/dt leads.
oh yeah be careful of dt darth, A fake DT putting a fellow mafia forward is not unheard of. Especially if that subject has all this dirt on him. Forgot GF and miller dont say anything for certain that could possibly involve these roles. ill be back at 10
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This is a significant choice we have on our hands.
Best Outcome
If onihunter flips red, it would make DTA that much closer to being a townie. We can start developing a town circle and proceed from there.
Bad Outcome
If onihunter flips green/blue, we have to make a choice:
-lynch DTA.
-trust DTA and lynch his source.
Worst Outcome
If we lynch DTA's source and he flips out green/blue, we can confirm that DTA is mafia. This would require TWO lynches that could go elsewhere.
That being said, I'm going to hold off on lynching for now to double check onihunter. I do agree with the decision for a double lynch however and will vote for that first.
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I think MTF secretly got bulletproof as a role.
Darth says he got a DT telling him oni is red, that's enough for me like I said last night, assuming we have reason to trust this DT.
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On June 10 2010 06:56 LaXerCannon wrote:
Best Outcome
If onihunter flips red, it would make DTA that much closer to being a townie. We can start developing a town circle and proceed from there.
I think this applies even if oni flips miller.
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Hey guys,
![[image loading]](http://www.pinkyshow.org/diary/uploads/shrigley_deadcat.jpg)
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Well since it is clear that onihunter isn't even presenting a defense, lets get back to discussion of who else we suspect. Still want to hear people analyzing others, clue digging, etc etc.
Too bad it's strict day/night schedule for you, onihunter - can't drive a bandwagon into making it a short day. 
With respect to my commentary on onihunter's playing and what it might reveal that he is red, honestly not all that much. He remained mostly neutral with respect to most people - leaning only slightly this way or that. One could argue his 'hardon' for crate makes him more likely to be red, but it was still just day1 stuff. I think the best thing we can pull from it is that it's likely that LaXerCannon is town since onihunter named him as a best target for lynch. Most else he said was just 'oh I lean a bit this way or that' on someone which he could easily backpedal out of without effort and without starting any real attacks on anyone.
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****THE FOLLOWING ASSUMES ONIHUNTER FLIPS RED****
Key things oni has said:
I'm still not convinced about MooCow. He's pretty active, and losing him would legitimately be a loss for us if he flips green. Deuce, on the other hand, is 100% useless and, whether he flips green or red, it's not BAD for us. If we kill MooCow, we're letting deuce live another day (WOOHOO!) and we lose a contributor if MooCow's green, which is more likely imo. So I'm keeping my vote on deuce.
....Wtf I did not catch that. I wouldn't go so far as to say that he "follows mafia threads" and "posts like a retard," since thats only one thread and the only retard here is deuce, but that's a major hole in his story, since he's supposed to be a newbie. As I promised, I'm switching to MooCow (which probably won't change the voting results, but, hey, it might).
Leads me to think that deuce should be green as well.
If MooCow was red I doubt oni would've switched because he'd be increasing the chance of a mafia dying (voting was sort of tight at that point). He only switched because MooCow was green and he probably wanted to even out the mafia votes...he probably felt that too many of them had stacked on deuce. Plus of course he knew both were green so it didn't matter who died. He switched because he felt safe switching since we had a large stack on MooCow already he wouldn't be that suspicious.
Key people he did analysis on
neutral for AFJ (Page 43)
neutral-town for littlechava (Page 43)
neutral for zyrre (Page 43)
neutral-mafia for DCLXVI (Page 43)
I skimmed over his analysis, theres probably some hints in there but I'm hoping someone else will do it ... if not I'll do it later. Take note that he definitely picked specific targets to analyze to achieve something.
Personally, I'm not "very certain" about either of them, but definitely more so for YI and DTA (since they are both very active and have given good tips/strategies), so that narrows it down.
Between the two, I'm more comfortable with voting for DTA because he's less provocative and seems to be more level-headed. Also, Darth lacks any clues (at least right now) so I've decided (finally) to vote for him. Really, both seem fine to me, but my gut says DTA.
My vote for first lynch would also go to laxer since he's on both lists, making him the best choice imo.
Agree with laxer being safe.
What I'm saying is, the active will most likely be not targeted or will be protected, so 3 townies will almost certainly die tonight. Am I right in my analysis?
Needed clarification and confidence to make sure all the targets mafia hit go through. With all the discussion on protecting active players mafia chose 2 people who would certainly die and went for a lucky shot on MTF.
but on the other hand, if you're mafia it's easy to hide...
I wonder wtf this means.
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it means mafia do
![[image loading]](http://i92.photobucket.com/albums/l36/Dumb__Man/Bowderdamage2.jpg)
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Are we safe to assume that the first few who voted to lynch onihunter are not likely to be mafia?
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EPT
