EPTJust curious as to why we have the 48 hour days? To be honest in that last game we had the activity to do 24 hours days.
TL Mafia XVIII
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meeple
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Just curious as to why we have the 48 hour days? To be honest in that last game we had the activity to do 24 hours days. | ||
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On February 10 2010 09:58 Incognito wrote: 48 hours have been standard for games as large as these. People need some time to read through the posts, and not everyone can be constantly checking. The 48 hour days is also to accommodate for the difference time zones. If the town is eliminated, then yes, it is true that the mafia with more members automatically wins. However, it is unlikely that all the townies will die before the mafia because the KP is under the mafia's control. The mafia do not know all the roles, so it is difficult for them to target only townspeople. Probably for big games like these... and I understand that the other game was blessed with unprecedented activity, it just seemed like the days took too long, and we had all mostly made up our minds by the end of the first day. So yeah I agree with the 48 hour day... | ||
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On February 10 2010 21:29 Phrujbaz wrote: What? I'm not in?! I think at the moment they're giving priority to players that were active in past games and you weren't especially active. Unless I'm wrong, there still might be a chance for you to get in once most of the other spots are filled. | ||
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On February 14 2010 09:36 Incognito wrote: The game has started. Please DO NOT change your profiles. Even to add in pictures? Like the people who didn't start with them? | ||
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Just something to keep in mind... | ||
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Right now though, at least in my mind, the lynch target is a bit of a crapshoot. I'm naturally inclined to lean towards clues so Ace comes to mind as a target, but in reality picking an inactive might be just as likely to hit red. | ||
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On February 14 2010 10:37 MasterDana wrote: Also, did Wine Barrels or Football fields stand-out to anyone? It could've easily said "Barrel" or "100-yards", but it got descriptive. Just something I noticed. I thought about it... but generally its better to profile the killers right now. Last game we made a huge deal about some heavily caffeinated tea at the beginning that ended up being nothing. Often it seems that the host is overly descriptive just to make our lives harder. | ||
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On February 14 2010 10:58 Ver wrote: Time to start things rolling. My primary suspect for the first lynch is Bloodyc0bbler. Obviously he's only posted twice since the game started, an election post and another useless psot. BC runs for election quite a bit. I've taken the liberty of gathering up his previous election campaigns so you can compare them. + Show Spoiler [Chuiu's game 5 as Townie] + On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ok everyone, unlike the flashy gimicks of caller, I offer substance to my platform!. to start with heres my portfolio. Name: BloodyC0bbler Mafia experience: 5(6 if you count callers as two go's), 1 game run, 1 game co hosted Looking at just the one stat alone, I have the experience to lead this town to victory! In mafia 2, I was town aligned and we won, mafia 3 we as town dominated the mafia, mafia 4 was ruined by a jerkoff so well, can't really say much there. Tracils game ended early, but my side was winning. Callers first game ended day one with VI win, and his second game I as VI won. I have a high precident of winning the games on the side im part of, with ability, and luck like that, I would be an obvious goodluck charm for the town. Now, witha ll the extra things I do on TL (PX, Location thread, etc...) You guys know I spend way to much time here, giving me the most amount of time to really jump ontop of things, I can analyze clues well which is helpful in your sheriff. That is my background, As for what I will do for the town to win. As sheriff or mayor, I will help guide the town where I can doing what I do best, Analysis. I can analyze clues, behaviour of players and guide us in a winning direction. As sheriff, I can jail 4 people in a game once per person, this allows me to save potential targets from mafia in a night, or jail the mafia lowering their KP. As mayor I can guide us towards killing the right suspect, and with a day 1 auto lynch, kill the person who is the most fishy to the town, but in the end, that will come to a consensus among the town first. Now for a plan. We all know the town works better when organized, as such, neither mayor nor sheriff can guide this town to victory without being under suspect (we always flip as mayor or sheriff regardless of any other role). So heres the plan. Medics protect veteran players early. When one of them takes a hit, the medic should roleclaim to that person AND that person should claim they took a hit. That person then gets checked. They get the medic checked as well. If BOTH check out, they both come out and serve as figureheads for the town. They coordinate blue abilities but keep information on to the town. When the person is hit they speak up. The sheriff then locks him up, protecting him from night hits while a dt checks him out. Once verified we repeat process with med, and have two figureheads, as opposed to the regular one. In the event the person who is hit doesnt speak up, the medic speaks up, we verify them first, then the one hit after. This is our best chance at getting town leadership quickly. + Show Spoiler [Qatol's game 8 as Traitor] + On May 16 2009 15:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote: OK BOYO'S! Ok guys, this game will be the hardest one potentially we have ever done, as such we need to get the mafia as soon as this game starts. I've shown a record of insane amount of clue analyzing from previous games, as such I believe I would make a good candidate for the town to keep alive. I however, would prefer to be pardoner, this allows me to help prevent potentially townbreaking lynches. As mayor, I would analyze the clues (as this is my forte) and bring them to your attention and direct votes on the best possible suspects, thus bringing the town some central leadership to avoid chaos. As pardoner, I would do generally the same idea, however, would use my ability to prevent lynches on cases where it appeared someone with no links was up for no reason. Vote for order, vote for BloodyC0bbler + Show Spoiler [Plexa's game 12, Townie] + On July 03 2009 07:38 BloodyC0bbler wrote: OK first off I AM RUNNING FOR OFFICE I am already seeing idiocy of players that has led to many vets getting insanely discouraged with playing these games. I appreciate Plexa for trying to make this game interesting with the addition of different roles, tweaking how some work, and the addition of fog. Now lets outline why I should be in office. Weather I'm already seeing debate on weather, and You guys are saying opt for rain? We have two medics, each have an extra life, and they can protect people. Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option. Next we have sunny which allows our assassins to attack. If you guys vote for this I will kill you. EVEN IF they hit a mafia, which we all jump and joy in, there is a chance they hit the godfather, and guess what, this means the godfather role gets given to another mafia and we have to find the damn guy again, way to much effort, so sunny isn't an option we want, also vigi roles aren't always reliable, lynches are where we have to win, so SUNNY is out. Next we have snow, snow is useful for hey additional clues. Guess what, most of the top clue analyzers from all previous games aren't in this one, IE the amount of people benefiting from these clues is so damn small its not worth voting on, so we ignore snow. This leaves fog, ie WE SPAM FOG. All greens should be voting fog every day to keep it going. It removes the pledges kp from the mafia. So if there would be at least 1 possibly as high as 3 or 4 pledges. This will reduce a KP from the mafia meaning 1-2 less people die at night. THAT IS A GUARENTEE. Medics are not guarenteed to protect so this is a safer bet. So we spam fog until the pledges are all dead, then move on to a different weather. Also note, with fog reducing the mafia KP, the suicide bomber will be less likely to use his ability as it removes even more kp from them. Leadership In most games I have played, I have worked in some way in town circles working for the benefit of the town, many times leading to a win for the town. This gives me the experience to help lead the town and help keep it organized. The towns in the last few games have been reduced to very small voices screaming at a mass of chaos and leads to failure, it has to stop. I would make an excellent choice for the leadership purely based off my experience at keeping some form of order. Untop of that, for once I am one of a very few in terms of a specific skill. I, as ive said in other games, clue analyze. Out of the current player base of this game, Myself and Pyrr are most likely most known for spending time on clues (there may be one or two people from pyrr's game , but i didnt pay much attention to it). This means either him or myself should have the bg protection purely to keep us alive to use that skill. I will do my best to keep us alive. Double Lynch I will make sure we get these used on top mafia targets, IE if we have two insanely guilty looking people, double lynch will be used. We wont have to worry about constantly voting for double lynch one day, then worrying mafia stop it. IT WILL GET USED and by god it will get by the town. These are merely a few points, but seriously with the debate of what to vote on for weather, A strong player is needed as the emperor or we are all fucked. Vote for me but more importantly VOTE FOR FOG + Show Spoiler [This game] + On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As the game as begun, it is time to get it started. I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor. I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly. Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler Notice the similarities between the two games he was innocent. He comes in with a plan, goes into detail, and gives genuine advice. In his game as a traitor, he offers nothing, says random gibberish, and is basically goofing off. He makes no serious attempt to do anything. Exactly like his campaign post this game. BC is a vet, and has played more games than almost anyone else (I think only Ace and maybe Caller leads him). He's also hosted a bunch of games as well (3). He knows what needs to be done. He knows what a mayor needs, he knows how to act as a townie; negligence is not an excuse. BC is acting very out of character and it's so blatant that it's obvious from just 1 post. While I agree that it seems somewhat out of character... in my mind it's not enough to lynch off. It might very well just be coincedence. | ||
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On February 14 2010 11:17 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Based on Ver posting insanely helpful tips to people, I shall vote for him to be mayor. If he wants me dead, that's his choice. However wrong he may be. Unless I missed something... is Ver running for office? | ||
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On February 14 2010 11:36 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Just read the day post. The only thing that really stands out to me is "he heard a scowl." since when can you hear facial expressions? either this is a mistake on the writers part or it's something to keep in mind. I think that's overthinking it... its probably a mistake, but its good to note | ||
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On February 14 2010 11:55 Abenson wrote: ALL HAIL ACE based on the past mafia games i've read he's usually right o.o I agree that he's on the right track, but try not to beleive so easily... he's a vet, which means he can play either role really well. I'm not pointing fingers, just saying that we need to keep our eyes open... | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:00 Abenson wrote: I dunno if i should announce this... but Chezinu pm'ed me even BEFORE the game began o.o the first pm was 3 days ago on Feb. 10th... O.O lol... thats intense | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:02 Chezinu wrote: My pm - totally unrelated to the game..It was about my profile... From: Abenson [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: hi Date: 2/11/10 06:05 Can i see more than a what? what picture o.o ----------------------------------------- Original Message: can you see more than a picture? Oh... well, if its not related to the current game it probably isn't worth mentioning, and while it tells a little about how active you are, not really all too relevant | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:06 Ace wrote: Ok L, try using that the "40% of people are Mafia argument". It doesn't help. Blindly pointing fingers in the chance you may nab someone is just as bad if it were a game where 20% of the people are Mafia. Stop it. You're wrong. So you don't agree that the clue seems to point to you? Because it's fairly suggestive... Having said that, I don't think the increased mafia will mean that the clues are nerfed, and thus we should rely on them more. What's your suggestion Ace? Who are your suspects? | ||
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y = mafia 2 z = town z is trying to kill x + y X is trying to kill y + z y is trying to kill x + z Isn't it something more like this? | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:21 Abenson wrote: But the mafia should be spending their kill points on mafia instead of z o.o Right I see it now... misunderstood | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:20 Chezinu wrote: There was a picture in someone's profile with a moon, a woman, and fire. I was posted earlier. Plus shadows and darkness was in Day 1 post of last game. The picture you're thinking about is in Mystlord's profile... | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:28 Chezinu wrote: So it looks like Mystlord could have jumped of the roof and rip incog's head off...or the moon thing...or the arson... Or Ace could have done the same but instead of the arson replace it with blinding... I'm too selfish right now to pick sides between L and Ace.. I wait to see who wins! hehe Its probably not about winning... they're just debating | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:30 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Clues aren't going to be that useful until later in the game imo but they shouldn't be ignored completely Yeah... I'm not sure I would lynch just based on that, but they're there to help us | ||
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So I wouldn't say Caller, or too many other people are inactive unless you see them posting in other parts of the forum and ignoring this thread completely. | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:35 Malongo wrote: Is this a DEJA VU¿ Now centering on the important matters: So far there is just no plan on the table. I mean literally all the candidates for office are just proposing themselves. So im inclined to think l10f is actually a good man to be on the office. First of all he claimed blue. Second reason is more a personal choice but im just too bored to see the same guys always there: Ver, BC, Ace... we need some new blood, with the added benefit that he is more likely to misstep if he plays red. For the first lynch play i really oppose the general feeling that we should lynch an inactive. Im all in to kill a big name. Three that come inmediatly into my mind are: Caller. Half inactive up to now. Posted defending BC out of nowhere. L: Wanted to change his profile. Not really doing what he does in all games to benefit the town. BC: Already spotted by ver. In fact if you think about it most of the time we lynched an inactive first day we got a town side player. Just lynch someone in the big names. I'm pretty sure that the BC connection was fairly weak too... | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:47 Chezinu wrote: Ace, if you should have acting radical like me every game so that you can do whatever you want...but then it makes getting a mayor role really hard.. If only people could see pass my image and vote for me..I f only people could see pass the image in my profile and see it's true meaning... Please stop begging for votes... try to put forth some constructive ideas | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:51 L wrote: Actually, I figured that a topic related to our current conversation should be addressed; As the town, how do we win given the game format? This post says that 18 mafia need to die for us to win. Compared to us, mafia have 6 times our kp per day/night cycle. If we want to win, are we forced to rely on mafia cross hits? I mean, seriously, given the format, it seems like town's main job is to out mafia with dts/try to soak hits on greens with medics, and just survive the mafia crossrape. If that's the case, shouldn't our main objective be to throw up as much clue information as possible? Unlike typical 1 mafia team games with clues, even if one team is deadset on keeping someone underwraps, its in the interest of someone from the opposing team to out them. So, two questions that I want people to think about: 1) What's our job as town? Survive? Hunt mafia? You tell me. 2) How do we react to information? Even classic things like DT gambits are changed in this game; If someone from a team that's winning wants to delay the town a turn, he can accuse someone of the opposite team and be 'confirmed' as a DT for a day. If he's killed as a claimaint, his team is still ahead, especially if his move lowers his opponent's kp. For 2) I think that information given to the town on the whole will be more 'true' in that there is no single underground group controlling information flow. Anyways, feel free to talk about this, and I still think you're red Ace. Relying on Mafia crosshits is obviously a big part of the game... although I don't think that we should throw up as much clue information as possible (Since perhaps,you're using the game format to strengthen your theory... ) I think we should hunt mafia... the same thing we normally do. I agree that reacting to information will be a bit more interesting though | ||
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On February 14 2010 12:55 Chezinu wrote: OK, I shall state the obvious and call it constructive ideas: 1. clues are good to start conversation on day 1 and provide a way to accuse people without really accusing then so that you can perform behavior analysis 2. If you don't want me to read your role, don't reply to my pm's 3. I'm the safest person to elect as mayor. Why? No one trusts me. Think about it. 4. There is no such thing as a "waste post" That is just an excuse to get people to talk, distract, or focus attention. 5. I am insane and don't play like normal player - have fun reading me 6. You don't want to kill me 7. I will not listen to "town" aka mafia when I am mayor 8. I will kill both mafia teams equally? 9. How will I do this -- I won't, It's called a bluff. 10. I have no idea what is considered a "constructive idea" in this game... 1. You're right, I agree 2.Bragging about how good you are? 3. Thought about it... not really that safe 4. There are waste posts... but usually used by mafia to distract the town 5. That makes it worse if you're the mayor... since we'd want to be able to read you 6.Hint about role? 7. Not listening to the town, and going off on your own tangents, especially when no one apprently trusts you isn't all that helpful 8/9 10. Something that adds to the discussion at hand? Or creates new discussion? | ||
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On February 15 2010 02:42 L wrote: When going to sleep, my recent rereading of the clues made me note that there are probably clues linked to 6+ mafia in the first post, with 2-3 personae being 'hittable' tonight in my current reading. This got me thinking; if we figured out all 6 credible hits, mafia are kinda forced to push their own hits towards town consensus targets. Upon realizing this, I came to the conclusion that Ver is 100% wrong; Discussing clues doesn't put the town into disarray: it lets town control both their own lynch AND night hits. The net result of persuasive clue targets that the mafia believe are that we BOTH save ourselves AND hunt mafia. . That kinda goes on the assumption that the clues are right. I don't think that the mafia would be "forced" to push their own hits like that, since they'll probably make their own decisions, but I do agree that the more good suspects that we have as a town the more likely they'll get hit by the respective mafia, if we make a good enough case for them. | ||
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On February 15 2010 03:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Bill Murrays defense hasn't impressed me one bit. I'm not 100% convinced he's mafia, but if he is not this is just terrible play. Bill Murray, at the very least give reasons as to why you think those people are mafia. Why do you refuse to justify your statements? Do you actually think it's helpful to come in and say "OH BTW THESE DUDES ARE MAFIA AND L IS DA GODFATHER AND BC IS THE OTHER FAMILIES GODFATHER, L8R" Yeah, I would ask the same. I'm skeptical as to how you came to those conclusions... | ||
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On February 15 2010 06:11 Bill Murray wrote: if you think i am mafia, you are a fucking idiot. Yeah man... not really a defense. I don't think you're mafia, but if I did that wouldn't really convince me otherwise | ||
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On February 15 2010 06:39 Bill Murray wrote: L is arguing like mafia Ahaha what? That's absurd, you can't just say that people are arguing like mafia without pointing it out. | ||
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On February 15 2010 08:51 Bill Murray wrote: i was just making a funny reference to family guy i guess you all don't watch that show  DH, you want me to list why i posted the people i posted? Yes please... as a general rule its good to back up your statements. | ||
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On February 15 2010 08:58 Bill Murray wrote: Chezinu - voting history, erratic behavior, seems to know more than a normal townie should redtooth - blindly supports L, take it back, supports him again, backlashes for my lynching laaan - voting for L, being too lazy to do anything to help the town, zato-1 - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason bloodycobbler - as per previous analysis regarding posting behavior ver - was probably a mistake, but because he ROLECLAIMEDto me in PM L - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason Mystlord - seems to be acting the same way from last game i'd like to eliminate fulgrim from this list. also, what's citi.zen been doing? he's been a lot less inactive than last game. i wouldn't be too worried about this if he didn't have so many votes. Chez - erratic behavior doesn't always lead to red, and can give an example of when he seems to know more than he should? laaan - being too lazy to help the town doesn't mean he's red... since that would mean there are like 25 red inactives sitting in the bleachers. Zato-1 - has stated that he thinks the clues point to Ace... so there is an apparent reason BC - Not sure why people keep coming to this... he very well might be red, but I don't think there's a correlation between his candidacy posts and him being red, for me it seems like a forced connection. Ver - Roleclaiming is really odd, but he might be messing with you, unless he explains why he trusts you. L - same with the other guy... its clear they're both basing their accusations on clues Mystlord - Not really enough to say for sure, but in addition to his profile pic that could be linked to the arsonist and moon references it might be slightly more suspicious than your average joe. | ||
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On February 15 2010 09:01 L wrote: Additional note; If i end up being correct on three mafia on the first day there will be much self-aggrandization after the game ends. Lol... there always is... | ||
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On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote: My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. I agree with the Doctor that it will take too long to do the same thing that we did last game... I think alot of our information will come from the cross-mafia hits... since each green/red hit will tell us alot about the remaining mafia and their alliances | ||
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On February 15 2010 09:13 Ver wrote: Ok, we need to get discussion going. I don't have much time now so I'm just going to make a quick writeup on another guilty person. FYI by accusing these people I'm not necessarily saying I would lynch them but they have been suspicious and need to account for their actions. But we need to put the pressure on people who have not been acting in the town's interests. Meeple Last game Meeple was a Townie. Here are some day 1 posts to get you familiar with him. + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 11:56 meeple wrote: Hmm... the biggest clue that stands out to me is the strange monkeyish reference. I agree that highly caffeinated tea is out of place too... but it might be a stretch to think of Golden monkey black tea... unless we know that someone here is a huge fan of it. On January 20 2010 12:09 meeple wrote: It caught my eye too... but perhaps its not an apple... but something about an adams apple, since its in his throat. So perhaps something that's extra manly... or has an adams apple thats especially prominent. On January 20 2010 12:29 meeple wrote: Well... although cookie monster might have "barbaric" movements... I don't think they would draw the line between him and monkey. Although, if I were thinking from a game-making perspective... cookie monster and the cookie in The_Master's profile is too good to resist. On January 21 2010 00:25 meeple wrote: If we're going with just imagery, we might as well consider keit and the Cookie Monster. Much more barbaric and it can be paired with shoving the apple down his throat, like Cookie monster does with cookies. Things to note: -Lots of clue analysis -Actively giving his opinion -Trying his best to contribute -Posting extremely frequently Now let's look at Meeple this game: + Show Spoiler + On February 14 2010 10:13 meeple wrote: Clues I think are important to the game and although especially in the early game they are very little help and can sometime steer us away from realizing and recognizing suspicious posting habits.. On that note, it is very important as we saw in the last game to try and keep impartial since the mafia will no doubt try to twist the clues to sway our decisions. Just something to keep in mind... On February 14 2010 10:22 meeple wrote: I agree fairly heavily with Ver's above post.. The more active posters, the less places the mafia have to hide. Right now though, at least in my mind, the lynch target is a bit of a crapshoot. I'm naturally inclined to lean towards clues so Ace comes to mind as a target, but in reality picking an inactive might be just as likely to hit red. On February 14 2010 11:58 meeple wrote: I agree that he's on the right track, but try not to beleive so easily... he's a vet, which means he can play either role really well. I'm not pointing fingers, just saying that we need to keep our eyes open... On February 15 2010 03:32 meeple wrote: Yeah, I would ask the same. I'm skeptical as to how you came to those conclusions... Things to note: -Meeple praises clue analysis, but DOES ALMOST NOTHING HIMSELF -Lots of talking to other players, but little real contributions -Plenty of useless posts, where he writes words but says nothing new in them -Less active overall What do you think of this Meeple? Midterm season... cuts down on the clue analysis/activity Also, I don't praise clue analysis, since last game it turned out alot of it was wrong. I've said that it can be useful, but we should be wary about relying heavily on it. Generating discussion is a contribution, I don't have time to do real clue analysis, and my character analysis is a working project. I'll post something that stands out if I see it. I apologize for the useless posts, but sometimes I'm just throwing my support around and letting other people who aren't as strained for time hash out alot of things. | ||
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On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. I sorta agree... I got caught in this type of trap myself, where I so firmly beleived in tredmasta's guilt based on what I thought was a strong clue and it turned out he was a vigilante. I see the clue connection, but I'm wary of the level of conviction you have in it. | ||
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On February 15 2010 09:43 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Do you feel the connection is stronger to Ace or Empyrean? I feel it's stronger to Empyrean because no one else could possibly fit the clue profile it seems. Multiple players could fit the killer you have said is Ace, even if they don't fit it as well. While I think that Empyrean fits the clue profile fairly well, perhaps closer than Ace, Empyrean has rarely posted, and even if he is red it doesn't give us too much to go on. But if Ace is red, we get quite a bit more information since he was alot more active here. Regardless, If I had to choose who I'm more sure is red, it'd probably be Empyrean. | ||
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On February 15 2010 09:51 789 wrote: Did Empyrean have a profile before? It is pretty much blank right now... He posted a while back saying he doesn't have a password to change his profile. The connection to clues was based on his name http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empyrean | ||
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On February 15 2010 10:00 L wrote: Oh foolishness, you posted on day 1 in a rather inflammatory tone instead of lurking until day 3 in an attempt to keep yourself alive. I was going to call you out after scamp, but way to show initiative. Also: 789, that's not a link to the arson killing you stupid twat. Its a link to the Angel's radiant flame killing. Wtf... He's the one who posted in an inflammatory tone? | ||
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On February 15 2010 10:01 L wrote: In retrospect, that reply to 789 was rather mean. Despite hating to put 'fluff' posts up, I feel the need to keep decorum seeing as someone has been warned before and apologize for the tone. But still, try to keep up with what's being said for crying out loud. Erp... sorry skipped past this | ||
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On February 15 2010 10:07 DoctorHelvetica wrote: if u dont listen to kpop while playing mafia then ur not playin 4 real I listen to Tom Waits... if that dude doesn't put you in a sombre mood that's good for thinking, then nothing will. | ||
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Ahah.. nice This one is by far my favorite: + Show Spoiler + | ||
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On February 15 2010 10:17 DoctorHelvetica wrote: ridiculous Just to be clear, what does this refer to? | ||
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On February 15 2010 10:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I also advise everyone to look at the people voting for citi.zen closely. He has not been that active, and posted very little on reason on why he should be in office, and he is easily winning position for mayor at the moment. This is insanely suspect behaviour on the voters. Much like the blind support I10f got last night, this blind support is similarly interesting. I could understand that he would get support from his analysis in Incog's last name, but 3 of those people: Fishball MasterDana dozko Weren't in that game, so in the very least, these people probably shouldn't blindly trust them. | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:32 dozko wrote: I can actually understand why people miss out some posts due to the supernova that has become this thread, but I dont think its a very good excuse. To others who have missed the argumentation of my vote its on page 29 towards the bottom. Ah sry I did miss that... | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:33 Ace wrote: No Dr.H made a few very critical mistakes. In fact the first one was even thinking that me posting aggressively implies that I'm suspect. That's just wrong on so many levels because I tend to play aggressive majority of the time regardless of my role. Then he tried to link myself and redtooth. In fact he's done this several times in an effort to say my death will imply information about him when we haven't even done anything that shows we are on the same side. The most telling example I have is the trap I set. See I knew that regardless of what role L has, he'd attack me. In fact it's amusing that he does this all the time then people that complain about us arguing. Those people are actually my PRIME SUSPECTS because every time L and I argue a shitload of information seeps out. I'm sure L already has a list of these soon to be dead people lined up though. The main part of my trap was seeing if anyone was going to shadow L. You know, loosely agree with some of his posts no matter how wrong they are and then try and implicate me. The mere fact that you propose lynching me on Day 1 based on CLUES is a telling point that you want to off me so bad. Even L stepped back for a second to re-asses but you kept on with the accusation. However there was one other thing that tipped me over the edge. How is it possible that you are currently reading the thread, I'm not even posting and you want to lynch me and you skip Caller's post? That was probably the biggest piece of positive information in the last ~10 hours and you chose to ignore it. You are definitely not pro-town. You're Mafia. You don't think some greens can fall into that trap too? I mean certainly some people like to follow clues regardless, and alot of the people here haven't played with you before and don't know if you usually play aggressively or not... | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:46 Bill Murray wrote: how do you KNOW he's green? seems mafia to me. you have information you care to share? I said some greens... I was actually talking about me. Since I suspected Ace in the beginning too... and I don't think I was alone in that. | ||
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On February 15 2010 11:49 DoctorHelvetica wrote: meeple didn't imply that in the slightest he's just saying the trap sucks because greens could fall into it easily and he's right Whoa I didn't say that either... damn people twisting my words. I said that greens could fall into that trap, so that its not definitive | ||
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On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote: My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful. For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game. Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town. So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice. The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy. + Show Spoiler + On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote: enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because... I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR ![[image loading]](http://i47.tinypic.com/hx9rb9.png) PLATFORM I am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory. I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town. Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living. THE OTHER CANDIDATES All of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen). Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone: Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise. PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSE Some may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes). My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me. LYNCH CANDIDATE If elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted. So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but FUTURE PLANS To kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis. If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more. Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly). tl;dr You shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent. Thank you for your time. The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans. First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason. As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy. As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace. Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet. I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post: I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything. My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way. I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response. I enjoy that you revisited this, and please correct me but what is new about this argument for Ace? We've already discussed that: 1) Clues may point to him 2) He had a vigorous defense that may be suspicious to some | ||
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On February 15 2010 13:07 Fulgrim wrote: People need to get one idea into their heads: this is not like any of the other mafia games. When someone is lynched, its going to be alot harder to analyze the voters, and the people who pushed for their death. If a player flips red, that could mean that the voters are: a) town, and their suspicions were right or b) mafia trying to kill off the other family if the player flips green or blue, in all the other games, we could assume that there are pretty good chances that the players who voted to lynch them were mafia. HOWEVER in this game, the mafia don't all know each other, coupled with the fact the mafia are trying to hit red just as hard as the town, I think this would make the accusers have equal chance of being red or green. Actually thats a great point... the mafia are going to try and manipulate our lynch vote so that it effectively increases their KP | ||
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On February 15 2010 13:17 SugiuraMidori wrote: Everyone's post counts up to and including this quoted post. Sadly also includes pre-day start.. short of manually editing the source file.. I can't take it out. amber[light]= 2 ohn= 1 madnessman= 6 tredmasta= 1 empyrean= 2 [nyc]hobbes= 17 redtooth= 50 masterdana= 3 shockeyy= 4 faronel= 5 sugiuramidori= 6 quickstriker= 2 tree.hugger= 3 lucaswoj= 1 nemy= 3 zona= 5 ver= 10 fulgrim= 18 mystlord= 11 fishball= 5 qatol= 10 johnnyspazz= 5 malongo= 6 best[alive]= 3 doctorhelvetica= 92 d3_crescentia= 23 scamp= 5 sidesprang= 11 chezinu= 70 shikyo= 2 stimilant= 1 vivi57= 2 bloodyc0bbler= 36 phrujbaz= 6 l10f = 6 l= 42 ace= 39 abenson= 32 citi.zen= 19 caller= 5 flamewheel91= 12 789= 23 foolishness= 3 iaaan= 40 bill murray= 57 xelin= 5 zato-1= 17 cynanmachae= 4 meeple= 57 dozko= 5 nikoner= 4 infundibulum= 7 ~opz~= 5 incognito= 19 Anyone not on the list has 0 posts!! And yes, I can run the script as much as y'all desire. Thanks for this: There are a bunch of fairly inactive people, but right now the only one that stands out is Zona. He was active last game and he's got almost 500 posts this week, but only 5 on here? | ||
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Although I think he's green, there's no way I would vote him in for office. As for redtooth, It's hard to say but he's been rather abrasive and personally I would rather a mayor who doesn't tilt so hard all the time. My vote would probably go to Ver, but it doesn't seem he wants the responsibility so I will vote for DrH, unless there's a strong case made against him. | ||
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On February 16 2010 01:06 Ace wrote: Which is exactly why I asked the question. If you say the clues link me to both Mafia families it seems like you're trying to force the clues onto me rather than the other way around. How is it even possible that with so many players being Mafia this game that this can even happen? I think he meant it more in the way that there are more than one clue connected to you, so even if we're misinterpreting one of them, it gives a greater chance that one of the two clues refers to you. Correct me if I'm wrong though | ||
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On February 16 2010 01:27 789 wrote: Yeah, the connections are there ... the connections are there on me too. Several people have brought up the possibilty of some of the clues fitting me as well. But really my point is ... at this early point in the game we should be noting these connections in the clues and see if any come up later clue drops to solidify them. The day 1 lynch is usually a crap shoot ... analyzing day 1 clues is more of a crap shoot. I'm not sure we should stack crap shoots. So then you're advocating posting behavior? Who strikes you as someone who's posting as mafia? | ||
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On February 16 2010 05:10 Caller wrote: Seriously, what is the point of updating those things? Who cares about numbers, people can post as much or as little as they like. Obviously the mafia won't be stupid and have all their members be constantly active in case they slip up, nor would they all pretend to be inactive. They would likely be distributed throughout the activity spectrum, so just making lists of how many posts people made is ludicrous. You could just summarize it as this: Active posters - DoctorHelvetica BillMurray Chezinu Redtooth Meeple Ace L Iaaan BC I dunno some of the newer players very well so I can't pass judgement on their actions. Of course we would expect some of the "veteran" players to say lots of shit cuz that's how they roll. People with wise things to say Zato-1, Redtooth (just a lil') Foolishness (especially the part about people spamming shit),~Opz~ I think ~Opz~ always has valid points. I remember when I was running Red Army Mafia that he nailed a lot of people on clues, even if nobody listened to anything he had to say. everyone else seems to be talking random shit if you ask me ~~~ Sometimes its nice to be reminded of who's hiding in the shadows. I've brought up Zona before... its not something definite but just something to think about... | ||
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For someone who complains about shit posting, the vast majority of your posts contain only "NOBODY CARES!" They're not going to change just because you tell them to... case in point Chez's new post that seems just to be a collection of his old posts... | ||
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On February 16 2010 06:14 Foolishness wrote: I find it very interesting that you choose to ignore Ver's big post of analysis on why you are mafia, and instead divert your time to tell me that I am only filling up the thread with useless jargon. If I was in your shoes, I'd be shitting my pants that one of the so called "veterans" have me listed down as one of their two top suspects. The last thing that would be on my mind would be small complaints from Foolishness about Iaaan's lack of useful posting. But hey, whatever you gotta do to dodge a bullet. I'm pretty sure I responded to that... and his "big" analysis consisted mainly of saying that I wasn't as active as in the last game. Of course, he only looked at the first day, and not the whole game... and forgot that I'm a university student and its midterm season... I was calling you out on being hypocritical, it had nothing to do with laaan in particular. | ||
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On February 16 2010 06:21 Bill Murray wrote: well, you are behaving completely different than you did last game meeple. Right, I am... because there's alot of loud vets around and I'm rather new to the game. The last game I was in we were all basically newbies and I could step in and take charge more, but this is a much different game. | ||
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On February 16 2010 13:02 789 wrote: Yeah, it wouldn't work. There is nothing we would learn from it no matter what happened. If the person dies - either redtooth lied and didn't protect or he actually did and there was a double hit. If the person lives it could have either been redtooth preventing a hit or the mafia just not cooperating. Would we be able to tell if it was a double hit by the way the night post is written up? This is more a question for the mods | ||
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On February 16 2010 21:28 Ver wrote: I wish I had more time to work with this list but I'm overtired as it is and don't have time to finish the analysis on a few othesr. So I'm putting it out there now and hopefully people can add on and I can fine tune it after I wake up. Do not Protect List: Bloodyc0bbler: + Show Spoiler [Initial accusation] + On February 14 2010 10:58 Ver wrote: Time to start things rolling. My primary suspect for the first lynch is Bloodyc0bbler. Obviously he's only posted twice since the game started, an election post and another useless psot. BC runs for election quite a bit. I've taken the liberty of gathering up his previous election campaigns so you can compare them. + Show Spoiler [Chuiu's game 5 as Townie] + On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ok everyone, unlike the flashy gimicks of caller, I offer substance to my platform!. to start with heres my portfolio. Name: BloodyC0bbler Mafia experience: 5(6 if you count callers as two go's), 1 game run, 1 game co hosted Looking at just the one stat alone, I have the experience to lead this town to victory! In mafia 2, I was town aligned and we won, mafia 3 we as town dominated the mafia, mafia 4 was ruined by a jerkoff so well, can't really say much there. Tracils game ended early, but my side was winning. Callers first game ended day one with VI win, and his second game I as VI won. I have a high precident of winning the games on the side im part of, with ability, and luck like that, I would be an obvious goodluck charm for the town. Now, witha ll the extra things I do on TL (PX, Location thread, etc...) You guys know I spend way to much time here, giving me the most amount of time to really jump ontop of things, I can analyze clues well which is helpful in your sheriff. That is my background, As for what I will do for the town to win. As sheriff or mayor, I will help guide the town where I can doing what I do best, Analysis. I can analyze clues, behaviour of players and guide us in a winning direction. As sheriff, I can jail 4 people in a game once per person, this allows me to save potential targets from mafia in a night, or jail the mafia lowering their KP. As mayor I can guide us towards killing the right suspect, and with a day 1 auto lynch, kill the person who is the most fishy to the town, but in the end, that will come to a consensus among the town first. Now for a plan. We all know the town works better when organized, as such, neither mayor nor sheriff can guide this town to victory without being under suspect (we always flip as mayor or sheriff regardless of any other role). So heres the plan. Medics protect veteran players early. When one of them takes a hit, the medic should roleclaim to that person AND that person should claim they took a hit. That person then gets checked. They get the medic checked as well. If BOTH check out, they both come out and serve as figureheads for the town. They coordinate blue abilities but keep information on to the town. When the person is hit they speak up. The sheriff then locks him up, protecting him from night hits while a dt checks him out. Once verified we repeat process with med, and have two figureheads, as opposed to the regular one. In the event the person who is hit doesnt speak up, the medic speaks up, we verify them first, then the one hit after. This is our best chance at getting town leadership quickly. + Show Spoiler [Qatol's game 8 as Traitor] + On May 16 2009 15:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote: OK BOYO'S! Ok guys, this game will be the hardest one potentially we have ever done, as such we need to get the mafia as soon as this game starts. I've shown a record of insane amount of clue analyzing from previous games, as such I believe I would make a good candidate for the town to keep alive. I however, would prefer to be pardoner, this allows me to help prevent potentially townbreaking lynches. As mayor, I would analyze the clues (as this is my forte) and bring them to your attention and direct votes on the best possible suspects, thus bringing the town some central leadership to avoid chaos. As pardoner, I would do generally the same idea, however, would use my ability to prevent lynches on cases where it appeared someone with no links was up for no reason. Vote for order, vote for BloodyC0bbler + Show Spoiler [Plexa's game 12, Townie] + On July 03 2009 07:38 BloodyC0bbler wrote: OK first off I AM RUNNING FOR OFFICE I am already seeing idiocy of players that has led to many vets getting insanely discouraged with playing these games. I appreciate Plexa for trying to make this game interesting with the addition of different roles, tweaking how some work, and the addition of fog. Now lets outline why I should be in office. Weather I'm already seeing debate on weather, and You guys are saying opt for rain? We have two medics, each have an extra life, and they can protect people. Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option. Next we have sunny which allows our assassins to attack. If you guys vote for this I will kill you. EVEN IF they hit a mafia, which we all jump and joy in, there is a chance they hit the godfather, and guess what, this means the godfather role gets given to another mafia and we have to find the damn guy again, way to much effort, so sunny isn't an option we want, also vigi roles aren't always reliable, lynches are where we have to win, so SUNNY is out. Next we have snow, snow is useful for hey additional clues. Guess what, most of the top clue analyzers from all previous games aren't in this one, IE the amount of people benefiting from these clues is so damn small its not worth voting on, so we ignore snow. This leaves fog, ie WE SPAM FOG. All greens should be voting fog every day to keep it going. It removes the pledges kp from the mafia. So if there would be at least 1 possibly as high as 3 or 4 pledges. This will reduce a KP from the mafia meaning 1-2 less people die at night. THAT IS A GUARENTEE. Medics are not guarenteed to protect so this is a safer bet. So we spam fog until the pledges are all dead, then move on to a different weather. Also note, with fog reducing the mafia KP, the suicide bomber will be less likely to use his ability as it removes even more kp from them. Leadership In most games I have played, I have worked in some way in town circles working for the benefit of the town, many times leading to a win for the town. This gives me the experience to help lead the town and help keep it organized. The towns in the last few games have been reduced to very small voices screaming at a mass of chaos and leads to failure, it has to stop. I would make an excellent choice for the leadership purely based off my experience at keeping some form of order. Untop of that, for once I am one of a very few in terms of a specific skill. I, as ive said in other games, clue analyze. Out of the current player base of this game, Myself and Pyrr are most likely most known for spending time on clues (there may be one or two people from pyrr's game , but i didnt pay much attention to it). This means either him or myself should have the bg protection purely to keep us alive to use that skill. I will do my best to keep us alive. Double Lynch I will make sure we get these used on top mafia targets, IE if we have two insanely guilty looking people, double lynch will be used. We wont have to worry about constantly voting for double lynch one day, then worrying mafia stop it. IT WILL GET USED and by god it will get by the town. These are merely a few points, but seriously with the debate of what to vote on for weather, A strong player is needed as the emperor or we are all fucked. Vote for me but more importantly VOTE FOR FOG + Show Spoiler [This game] + On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As the game as begun, it is time to get it started. I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor. I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly. Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler Notice the similarities between the two games he was innocent. He comes in with a plan, goes into detail, and gives genuine advice. In his game as a traitor, he offers nothing, says random gibberish, and is basically goofing off. He makes no serious attempt to do anything. Exactly like his campaign post this game. BC is a vet, and has played more games than almost anyone else (I think only Ace and maybe Caller leads him). He's also hosted a bunch of games as well (3). He knows what needs to be done. He knows what a mayor needs, he knows how to act as a townie; negligence is not an excuse. BC is acting very out of character and it's so blatant that it's obvious from just 1 post. Further Analysis: BC basically dodges the issue entirely, and frankly his response reeks of a calculated play to do the things that would make him look innocent to me. This is followed up with general uselessness while not remaining completely inactive, not an innocent BC trademark. Further slipups include telling me privately that the the two people who stand out the most are him and myself. He viewed me as being too helpful and thus suspicious, but that apparently did not stop him for voting for me despite the fact that I accused him?? He later retracted his vote for no stated reason, which makes it look more like a simple calculated reaction. He also says he has a rudimentary plan worked out, then never follows up on it in private or public. He also posts several times about how clue analysis is useless until day 3, but then acquiesces for no reason and does serious analysis in day 1. This would not be so much of a problem if it was not his only substantial contribution, but it certainly boggles the mind why someone would be so present, yet make his only real contribution on something he repeatedly said was useless. Meeple + Show Spoiler [Initial Analysis] + On February 15 2010 09:13 Ver wrote: Ok, we need to get discussion going. I don't have much time now so I'm just going to make a quick writeup on another guilty person. FYI by accusing these people I'm not necessarily saying I would lynch them but they have been suspicious and need to account for their actions. But we need to put the pressure on people who have not been acting in the town's interests. Meeple Last game Meeple was a Townie. Here are some day 1 posts to get you familiar with him. + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 11:56 meeple wrote: Hmm... the biggest clue that stands out to me is the strange monkeyish reference. I agree that highly caffeinated tea is out of place too... but it might be a stretch to think of Golden monkey black tea... unless we know that someone here is a huge fan of it. On January 20 2010 12:09 meeple wrote: It caught my eye too... but perhaps its not an apple... but something about an adams apple, since its in his throat. So perhaps something that's extra manly... or has an adams apple thats especially prominent. On January 20 2010 12:29 meeple wrote: Well... although cookie monster might have "barbaric" movements... I don't think they would draw the line between him and monkey. Although, if I were thinking from a game-making perspective... cookie monster and the cookie in The_Master's profile is too good to resist. On January 21 2010 00:25 meeple wrote: If we're going with just imagery, we might as well consider keit and the Cookie Monster. Much more barbaric and it can be paired with shoving the apple down his throat, like Cookie monster does with cookies. Things to note: -Lots of clue analysis -Actively giving his opinion -Trying his best to contribute -Posting extremely frequently Now let's look at Meeple this game: + Show Spoiler + On February 14 2010 10:13 meeple wrote: Clues I think are important to the game and although especially in the early game they are very little help and can sometime steer us away from realizing and recognizing suspicious posting habits.. On that note, it is very important as we saw in the last game to try and keep impartial since the mafia will no doubt try to twist the clues to sway our decisions. Just something to keep in mind... On February 14 2010 10:22 meeple wrote: I agree fairly heavily with Ver's above post.. The more active posters, the less places the mafia have to hide. Right now though, at least in my mind, the lynch target is a bit of a crapshoot. I'm naturally inclined to lean towards clues so Ace comes to mind as a target, but in reality picking an inactive might be just as likely to hit red. On February 14 2010 11:58 meeple wrote: I agree that he's on the right track, but try not to beleive so easily... he's a vet, which means he can play either role really well. I'm not pointing fingers, just saying that we need to keep our eyes open... On February 15 2010 03:32 meeple wrote: Yeah, I would ask the same. I'm skeptical as to how you came to those conclusions... Things to note: -Meeple praises clue analysis, but DOES ALMOST NOTHING HIMSELF -Lots of talking to other players, but little real contributions -Plenty of useless posts, where he writes words but says nothing new in them -Less active overall What do you think of this Meeple? Further Analysis: Like BC Meeple, basically avoided the accusation and continued on his merry way, which he was given the luxury of thanks to mountains of spam covering up the accusation. As further followup was impossible he's not 100% guilty but it certainly doesn't look good. I want to take a closer look at him when I wake up. Ace My certainty with Ace is less than with the above two but Ace really has no business being protected anyway with his performance so far as regardless of role he is hurting the town. Ace has been a consistent presence in the thread throughout the game, yet despite this fact he has given almost no real contributions at all. He has instead defended himself, caused a lot of chaos, and...not really said much else besides judging others. This does fit with his the behavior of his previous mafia performances (see here and here ). In these games Ace sits back, passes judgment on the play of others, and offers nothing himself. The only saving grace of Ace is his accusation and 'trap' of DrH, which while good seemed to be nothing more than a temporary fad that he gave up on promoting (if I am wrong please correct me, I couldn't find it via searching). Mystlord: Mystlord is on here at the request of L (who also requested Bill Murray but I don't see any reason for him to be mafia at all). A quick glance at his posts reveals that he has posted a bit, but said virtually nothing in them. Lots of anger at other people for being useless, yet doesn't do anything himself. This is a common mafia trait and otherwise Mystlord has done little to convince us of his use to the town. A brief glance Medic List: Chezinu Ver Caller DT check list: Fishball Shikyo LucasWoJ Citizen Fulgrim Quickstriker Tree.Hugger MasterDana The DT list is rather long but there is a pretty big subset of players that we lack information on and these are some of the more glaring of those, plus we don't want DT checks overlapping. I didn't avoid anything, I responded to it quickly after you posted. You only looked at the first day of the last game, where the level of activity was ridiculous. And I have a week of midterms coming up, so I simply don't have the same amount of time that I used to have. | ||
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On February 02 2010 20:59 meeple wrote: Isn't this a dangerous time for people with midterms just around the corner? | ||
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On February 17 2010 08:43 Bill Murray wrote: without detectives all we have are behavioral analysis and voting patterns, right? i don't see why a detective would roleclaim, they would get killed so fast, see: the last game i played THe last game we played was totally different... | ||
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On February 17 2010 08:58 Bill Murray wrote: his signature is "once, not long ago, there was a moon here" in the day 1 clue analysis it mentions the moon 4 times and moonlight once, so a total of FIVE TIMES! how is that not clue analysis on him? and in terms of behavioral analysis, he has defended redtooth and ace BOTH. That kinda goes on the assumption that Ace and redtooth are red... | ||
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On February 17 2010 09:00 Bill Murray wrote: This is from a PM Ver sent me. In case I die, I wanted to pass this on. He might not be lying, but this and his supporting of redtooth made me believe he might be red. Ver would you back this up? | ||
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On February 17 2010 09:32 madnessman wrote: i thought that it was against the rules to post pm's? That was pm's from the hosts. Afaik, posting pms from other players are fine | ||
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On February 17 2010 09:35 Faronel wrote: This. BM's behavior was rather erratic. So wtf? Well, in the very early game BM wasn't quite so erratic... and since BM won't reveal the time of the PM its hard to tell | ||
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On February 17 2010 09:43 Bill Murray wrote: let's assume that last person was chezinu, and redtooth wasn't lying. Did I miss where redtooth promised to save Chez? | ||
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Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r] Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game... Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r] Sneezing and white things reference Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r] Bickering and madness references Dunno about the others yet | ||
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On February 17 2010 11:24 nemY wrote: Couldn't the mafia have just hit a vet? I thought Ver was hit... at least he admitted it. | ||
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On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote: I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects. | ||
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On February 17 2010 11:33 Mystlord wrote: I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me: I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now. And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings. Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first. Ah... wings? Sorry I suppose, it really looks with her hand like she's casting the crystals away... I don't mean to pick on you, but either Incog is screwing you over, or you're red. There have been numerous moonlight references in the last kills, and I thought that the wish to terrorize in the day was because he couldn't, stuck at nighttime. And if you add in the fire kills (I know there's the gasoline to be explained) it still makes it really suspicious. | ||
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On February 17 2010 11:37 SugiuraMidori wrote: Wow.. so like.. uhh.. that whole "terrorizing by night and day" Mayor anyone? First he blunders and kills Emp, a townie... now blunders and kills another, Ace? I don't think the clues can be related to behavior. Rather I think they're just about your profile/name/sig... | ||
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On February 17 2010 12:33 Ver wrote: The mafia most definitely did not blindly follow me; if they did Meeple and Mystlord would have died too. It's most likely: a) Their suspicions coincided with mine on Ace and BC b) They liked my analysis on Ace and BC and did not like it on Meeple/Mystlord c) Mystlord/Meeple are mafia and the side(s) they weren't on simply didn't target them Obviously the purpose of the lists was to get them killed. BC I was simply wrong about, Ace I was not sure but he was adding a lot of chaos to the town and not doing much good. Frankly the outcome of the day basically says nothing about my alignment. On the other hand, if you saw 3 reds from 1 family die and 0-1 from another, then you should start getting very suspicious. If I was on a mafia team and I couldn't hit a single mafia or useful blue I would be uh...very ashamed haha (it's far easier knowing the identity of 9 players). Have you looked at the hitlists of games when I was mafia? Am I really that high on your hit list? What do you still doubt? | ||
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On February 17 2010 15:08 Amber[LighT] wrote: Ugh I went back and re-read starting from page 14 until about page 30 (so far) and I've gone through every bs post, stupid argument, unbelievable accusation etc... People who should be looked at because they were misleading in day 1: L: -Strongly advocates clue analysis and explains why its good in this game (pg 16) -Forcing clues to match Ace as a suspect (pg 17) -Shows us he sucks at math and doesn't realize that 8 + 8 = 16, not 18 (pg 19) -BC openly asks why L likes clue analysis, and L claims he has a "sterling" record (pg 21) -Still pushing for the clues against Ace (pg 23) -Wants to kill the moonlight rider, not necessarily Ace (pg 24) -Believes that the moonlight rider might be 789 (pg 24) -Believes the clues of fire, angels and radiance may point to Empyrean (pg 25) -Still thinks Ace and Mystlord are the two strongest lynch candidates (pg 25) -Claims that the clues are so strong and we must utilize them (pg 25) Chezinu: -Just plain annoying to read (pg 16 - current) Bill Murray -No explanation required(pg 14 - pg 30) People who should be looked at who are extremely useless from Day 1 (first half or so and in no particular order): Iaaan: -useless post implicating BC (pg 15) -Agrees with meeple about something (pg 15) -More useless gibberish (pg 16) -Feels that the mafia families are the best weapons for the town (pg 17) -Argues with Ace that clues aren't primary, but claims Ace said they shouldn't be looked at in the first place (pg 17) -Insists that L's clue analysis is definite and points to Ace (pg 18) -More useless posts (pg 19) -More useless posts (pg 20) -Again... (pg 23) Meeple: -Everything :facepalm: (pg 14) -Twice again (pg 16) -Arguing with Ace asking for suspects and believes clues should be looked at heavily (pg 17) -Meeple then tries to give us a variable lesson after Abenson (pg 17) -More useless posts between him and Absenson (pg 18) -More useless posts about clues (pg 18) -More useless posts towards Chezinu, as well as informing us that we should hung mafia, no shit (pg 19) Sidespring: -Weak clue analysis against Ver (pg 15) -Agrees not to lynch immediately based upon clues, but gives no effort in aiding discussion of any sort (pg 16) Abenson: -Agrees with Ace, only because everyone "should" agree with Ace. (pg 16) -Let us know Chezinu PM'ed him on the 10th, thanks Abenson (pg 16) -Throwing out more useless information about a past mafia game, and trying to teach us about variables (pg 17) -Can't think of anything helpful to say, so he lets us all know (pg 21) Fulgrim: -Comes in and talks about how clues are important blah blah (pg 18) -Votes for Ver because he has the best posts so far, congrats Ver! (pg 18) -Won't vote for Ace because he's not accusing anybody (pg 18) People who should be looked at with a careful eye, not too suspicious, just not really helping... Cyanmachine: -Claims he read everything, but never saw the list of people who were running for mayor, or their posts? (pg 21) -Still unsure as to who's running for mayor, proving he didn't read shit (pg 22) Faronel: -Provides no contribution and rehashes everything that has been said in the past 8 pages (pg 22) -Made a newb mistake and edited a post, probably just a newb mistake (pg 22) Fishball: -Always up for seeing BC dead, no reason (pg 15) [NyC]Hobbes: -Rambling about how clues help the town and that it worked in a previous game (pg 20) -Rambles about how we should use clue analysis in the late game (pg 21) -Supports citi.zen for mayor because of his performance last game (pg 23) -Does not support Ace, ver, or L because of shaky analysis and finger pointing (pg 23) -Wants to kill someone based upon clues and clues alone, that person being Ace (pg 24) -Believes that going back after Ace is killed will give us insight about the players who accused him (pg 24) -Notes that killing someone like Chezinu is useless for the town, if our only reason is because they are annoying (pg 24) MasterDana: -Ran for mayor on a shitty platform (pg 14) -Makes an even shittier post right after (pg 14) I'm not suggesting anybody here is mafia, but they have ties to every player who was killed and have been contributing constantly to the derailment of this game within a 16 page period (except for the top three). What? Ok... I wasn't arguing with Ace on pg 17, I was asking him if he denied the clue connection because up until then he hadn't even admitted it's existence. Yet again, I don't advocate clues I've said this before and I'm not sure where people are getting it. I didn't say we should lynch Ace on clues, and when I say clue links exist thats all I'm saying, it doesn't mean its a sure thing. As for the Abenson thing, I misunderstood a part of the game and that was clearing it up... You're totally twisting all my posts and taking them out of context. When I said we should hunt mafia it was in response to something L had said about playing the game differently because of the new format. Also... what exactly on pg 14 is facepalm? I said that I was running for office I said that we should profile killers instead of focussing on details, citing an example from the last game I played And I commented of how I thought BC wasn't that suspicious... I don't know what you're seeing here... but please enlighten me | ||
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On February 19 2010 01:10 madnessman wrote: + Show Spoiler + 3. so the pm that i sent doctorhelvetica -- time stamp: 09:53. next thing i know, meeple goes + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis: ... Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r] Bickering and madness references Dunno about the others yet followed by L who goes: + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2010 11:18 L wrote: I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty. nemy madnessman mystlord phrubaz Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/ BRB 12 HOURS. and then later his explanation: + Show Spoiler + The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessman Basically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though. this is the passage in which both meeple and L reference: + Show Spoiler + d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain. are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! this coming from the guy who claims he's such an excellent clue analyzer with great success. because when people squabble/argue/draw grafitti, these are extremely telling signs of MADNESS. the fact that both meeple and L would out of nowhere draw such bullshit, terrible clue analysis on me a few minutes apart definitely caught my attn. i'd like to give meeple and L credit and say there's no way they could be so terrible at clue analysis, but why would they both suddenly do this? and within minutes of each other? my behavior has been in no way suspicious; if anything, i started off this game completely ignorant of the mechanics of internet mafia and extremely unsure/looking for the guidance of vets. therefore it is a possibility to me that doctorhelvetica shared my pm (in which i am suspicious of redtooth+L) with them, as both accusations sprung up soon after i pm'd dr.H. but honestly, i think it is behavior like this/tendency to point fingers and create suspicion without a basis that are telltale signs of mafia. For the record, and I've said it before... that clue analysis is only a link, and there are tons of people that the bickering and stuff could point too but madnessman caught my eye so I threw it out there. The clue could also refer to johnnyspazz... for both the spazz reference and his profile containing sonic/dr.robotnik as two enemies. Nikoner has graffiti in his profile picture... I'm not pointing fingers and its not totally without a basis... although madness doesn't really fit the description of that scene. I would be happier with some hillbilly link or the like. As for L, I have no idea... he could have seen the same link independently, or perhaps the power of suggestion since he had seen the name... or perhaps he's a mafia bandwagoning. I don't think anyone seriously suspects you on that basis, especially since I agree your posting is in no way suspicious. Anything clue related has to be taken with your eyes open to other things. Now, about the idea that L is red... I don't think that clues are related to personality, but rather solely the profile and there is nothing about his profile that ties him to that killer, but that doesn't mean they don't exist, since we haven't got near enough clues to have every mafia have one pointing to them. L's calmness during the election might indeed be a tell, since he knew that he was always going to win and thats something I never thought of. I don't have your conviction about the matter, but I could beleive that L is mafia. | ||
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Thats a good link actually... the character in that clue is surprisingly detective-like | ||
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johnnyspazz [Clue] Meanwhile, the second Mafioso made his way all the way across town to a small apartment on the edge of the city wall. Although the road to the residence was filled with many twists and turns, the Mafioso was able to reach the apartment without too much loss of time. The Mafioso knocked on the door, waiting for a response. Nervous, Zato-1 pulled out his shotgun, ready to shoot the intruder if he proved to be a menace. But Zato-1 could not have been more prepared for what happened next. As he opened the door, he was immediately knocked down and impaled by an array of sharp objects. The intruder was nowhere to be seen, although neighbors who have walked by the now open door have noticed a hole in the wall directly behind where Zato-1 had been killed. johnnyspazz has a sonic the hedgehog thing in his profile. Sonic's adventures are full of twists and turns and Sonic is fairly speedy, so he shouldn't lose too much time getting there. Also, hedgehogs are pretty spiky things, so that would explain the array of sharp objects and the incredible speed with which the murder happens, even though the guy was prepared. Lastly, Sonic is known to curl up into a ball and travel at great speeds, which could explain the hole in the wall. | ||
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On February 19 2010 17:49 SugiuraMidori wrote: Okay... well.. found a second VERY nasty virus... be a bit longer than expected haha. Why don't you just post it for him? | ||
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On February 20 2010 08:59 johnnyspazz wrote: Isn't it just a closed beta? How can a closed beta get so many people to stop caring? Livestreaming has got people watching and discussing en mass... not just the people playing | ||
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On February 20 2010 09:23 L wrote: Error ??? | ||
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Scamp + Show Spoiler + The rain poured down steadily as darkness fell over the town. Inside an old shack in a deserted part of the town, 789 was content relaxing in the quiet of his bedroom. He could hear the light rain on the top of the roof, but was jolted out of his trance when he heard some panting, a few grunts, and then a loud crash upstairs. 789’s mind raced for a moment, but he was interrupted as the whole second floor of the shack came crashing down from the weight of the water and sewage above, ending his life. Profile picture including drainage and gutter references. ShoCkeyy + Show Spoiler + SugiuraMidori smiled, thinking about the murders that would happen tonight. But it was cold tonight, and she decided to watch the murders from her apartment instead of watching from the tower in the middle of the town. As she turned around, she noticed the light in the background floating slowly to her location. At first she thought the light to be an omen of success, but she was suddenly shocked as the charming light sped up and pierced her skin. She felt a burning sensation, followed by more attacks from the light. A few moments later, SugiuraMidori died as her heart was overloaded from shock. His name is indicative of lightning... and this death was riddled with clues about light and shocking | ||
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On February 20 2010 10:31 L wrote: On that note, I just went and updated foolishnesses old post with the new information we have because of the fact that uh... its a secret. Time-----------------Action--------------------------------------------------Results 5:57-------------------------------------------------------------------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 4 votes 5:57------citi.zen changes from abstain to redtooth--L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 6:32---------L changes from abstain to Chezinu--------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 6:42-------BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:28---------d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:54-----------infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes 7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:10----------------Zona abstains--------------------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:45-----------------redtooth claims medic--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:46------------Ace changes from redtooth to L-----------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:49-----------------meeple votes for redtooth---------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:52---------------tredmasta changes to Ver----------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 7 votes 8:53------------d3 changes from Chezinu to redtooth---L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 7 votes 8:55------------Nikoner changes from Ver to abstain----L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:55---------- Ace changes from L to redtooth--------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 8 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:57---------- Empyrean votes for redtooth-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 9 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:58----------BM changes from Chezinu to redtooth-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 10 votes; Ver - 6 votes updated. Nikoner stands out even more now; with so much green, and now a confirmed red voting for ver, why would he throw down the deciding vote after having voted for ver only an hour before? He also voted within a minute of a known red. His profile has graffitti. Which brings me to another point; It seems the herrings that are listed in the clues are valid clues, but they aren't linked to the particular killer. We may have been very, very wrong about how we assumed bombs would be declared, as well as how double hits would be declared in the clueset. We just lost 2 hatters. That's 4 bombs. There should be TEN people dead. We're missing 3. The clues dont' account for 3 overlapping hits. This is pretty bad news. I don't think its 4 bombs... Don't the rules say one player per night? | ||
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On February 20 2010 10:17 Caller wrote: meeple dead townie I'm not dead... yet | ||
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On February 20 2010 11:16 Ver wrote: Relevant info: I talked to Nemy last night. He had a bomb on bill murray from day 1 then planted one on me, but then roleclaimed to me. he removed the bomb on me, put it on dr h, and then died. Both bomb deaths are from him. Shikyo did not roleclaim, frankly I don't even know if he planted a bomb given his activity. 1 mafia kill for sure overlapped with Nemy's bombs (most probable on Dr H). Either Shikyo's bombs overlapped, were blocked, or he didn't place any (most likely). This is why you roleclaim though, so we can avoid pointless death's like shikyo's. As for today's lynch, Tree Hugger sounds like the best bet for now. What's the reason for lynching tree.hugger? You never got around to do that analysis | ||
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On February 20 2010 11:30 L wrote: If helvetica was bombed and shikyo didn't bother placing any of his bombs, one of the hits is still missing; potentially one is tied up with shikyo I don't understand why Ver thinks the hit is on Helvetica when it seems like Shikyo has two hits on him. Bill Murray was bombed no? | ||
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On February 20 2010 11:42 L wrote: Helvetica and Murray seem to have been bombed. Helvetica has pretty much no clues attached to him. There are 5 kills besides those 2 with 6 mafia kp. There is a hit missing. Someone got hit twice or someone protted something. Right... @ Ver Did the medics that roleclaimed to you protect anyone last night? | ||
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On February 20 2010 15:03 johnnyspazz wrote: meeple, what do you think about my super awesome clue analysis on quickstriker? Well... to be honest I was going to include that in my clue analysis but I ended up not because of the power of suggestion. There are some problems with the Quickstriker analysis, like the tendency of the mafia to burst through thin walls... and the "fork" that is used in the killing is a queen chess piece and not really a fork, though it bears a resemblance. I see the connection but I'm not sold on its strength like I am with some of the other connections. | ||
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On February 21 2010 10:10 L wrote: Because unless redtooth is mafia, he doesn't know which team has been hitting more town members apart from the 1 hit discrepancy. The manner in which he articulated his conviction basically flat out states that he knows something that he wouldn't know if he was a towns person. Redtooth hasn't even bothered to try to defend himself; the bulk of his argument is that he believed sugi was part of some conspiracy to get into a town circle. Why would he taunt the mafia as town anyways? What's the purpose of this line? Redtooth admits he hasn't thought the situation through, he he's posting from the hip, so to speak. So if he's posting from the hip, why wouldn't he address both mafia teams together and say something akin to: "why are you mafia guys hitting so many townspeople; go hit each other!"? Well, its pretty obvious, he's sumiyoshi and he's taking a jab at the other team because he knows which hits his team is responsible for, and he has a general idea about which hits the other team is responsible for (sans bombs, etc.). Also; Chez was joking and trying to say that if redtooth was mafia that he'd have contacted him? Doesn't seem like it here: From: Chezinu [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: Clues Date: 2/21/10 09:09 Ding Ding ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Was it redtooth? Because he just admitted to being mafia. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Psh, me work with Ver? yeah right! My mystery mafia contact wasn't Ver.. keep trying! Well... that PM is questionable, since I don't think we can take anything Chez says seriously. I do agree that redtooth seems to know things that he shouldn't. I wouldn't mind so much if he said that those were things he thought, instead of stating them as facts. | ||
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On February 21 2010 11:49 Iaaan wrote: Also some clue analysis that I don't think is spectacular, but could have some merit: Googling "L", the first thing that comes up is the wikipedia article. Very much like a spear. I didn't think this was worth posting, however L's profile has little content, only a picture of luigi looking at some guy, which I don't see any clue links at all to. Only to his name. That's fairly weak... if we are to draw clue connections to L. I think madnessman brought it up. But L is a detective in Deathnote and this death is suspiciously detective-y + Show Spoiler + When the three Mafiosi made it to the city gate, they each decided to go in their separate directions, moving swiftly towards the houses of their victims. The first Mafioso went straight for the town center. When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. I'm still not totally convinced though... since it doesn't really explain the gasoline/light dark references... | ||
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On February 21 2010 11:50 Ver wrote: Okay I need to make some things VERY clear. First off, double lynch is our trump and should be saved till the very end. With our hatters likely gone the double lynch is the only way we have of fixing an imbalanced power situation (say 5 vs 3). That means we are not double lynching tomorrow, and possibly not even the day after depending on how the kills go. With maf.ia KP this high still double lynching doesn't really do much, but when mafia have only 1 or even 2 kp each, it becomes a lot more useful and more important it is our failsafe in case one family does manage to take a lead Double Lynching this early only helps the mafia. This means: L Fishball Foolishness LucasWoJ tree.hugger Iaaan Chezinu Scamp Caller sidesprang meeple Remove your double lynch vote now, no excuses. Double lynching at this point only favors the mafia. Secondly, here are two alternative game progressions: 1) Ideal Scenario: We keep both families at 7/7, 4/4, 2/2. Of course that means we and they would be 100% accurate, but in general keeping them at the same kp is good enough. 2) Bad Scenario: 1 family gets KP and a member or two ahead, then further increases their lead if both families keep hitting mafia. In other words, keep both families at the same KP/roughly equal member situation and we are good. Yes all of this is quite obvious, but that's what is going on right now. The Sumiyoshi are trying to get Scamp (who is extremely likely Gambino) killed, thus achieving a superior position of 3:2 in kp and 8:6 in numbers. It's not a big deal if 1 family is a member ahead but we cannot let them get KP ahead, because that is a neverending spiral that leads to our loss. Thus it is extremely important that we make sure a Sumiyoshi dies in this lynch, tying both families at 7. It is possible I might be wrong about Sumiyoshi intentions since a lot of people are voting for johnnyspazz (who can wait for tonight, quit voting for him), but regardless the most important thing is to make sure a sumiyoshi dies. A DT (the one who checked me actually) inspected Quickstriker last night and found that he is Sumiyoshi. Who cares about all these stupid conspiracy theorr lies, they are not important and distract us from the real task at hand: ensuring both families stay equal in power. Vote for Quickstriker and DO NOT Vote for Double Lynch. And btw anyone who pm'ed me sorry, you're going to have to wait a bit more for a response. I don't have much time but this needed to be said. We have 3 double-lynches... and alot of targets... I really doubt we'll be able to use all three in this game. We might as well use it while we can. | ||
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On February 21 2010 12:03 madnessman wrote: This possibly accounts for the light/dark references: In Death Note, L's nemesis is Light Yagami. Ahh very nice... | ||
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On February 21 2010 12:20 L wrote: Is this true? I don't know. I'll be more certain once redtooth dies, but its very odd that you'd attempt to bandwagon tree.hugger, then switch to quickstriker; if you had such good analysis earlier, why the change? If you're sumiyoshi, then you're essentially trying to trade an inactive member of your team to save redtooth and keep heat off yourself. Thats kinda true... redtooth being mafia would implicate you (and me too, since I did switch to him last minute). I'm not totally sold on redtooth, but his death will have much greater consequences than simply keeping the mafia families somewhat equal, since 6-8 isn't that big of a difference this early in the game. | ||
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Abenson Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds. Dreamflower became more nervous, and pointed her gun out the window, waiting for the horsemen to approach. However, she was startled as she noticed a figure walking towards the horsemen. She breathed a sigh of relief when she recognized Qatol. But what was Qatol doing out so late at night? Dreamflower was puzzled, but was snapped back into reality as she noticed the horsemen were only a football field away from her location. Thinking quickly, she decided not to fire a shot, but ran outside to get Qatol to safety. She tried to run in the shadows, but was caught in the middle of the road as the moon pierced through the cloud layer and shone directly on her. The horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react. She leaped to the left, and narrowly avoided death. But the second horseman just cackled loudly. Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, he charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly. In a panic, dreamflower ran back into her house to grab her gun, but it was futile. Abenson's profile has a chess board and these two horsemen could represent the two knights. The dark and light references could refer to the restrictions on the knights needing to alternate between light and dark squares when they attack. The first knight is in the shadows and when Dreamflower steps into the moonlight the knight attacks her, indicative of the knights attack pattern in chess. | ||
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On February 23 2010 01:40 Chezinu wrote: The results of my endeavors have satisfactorily harmonized with the forecast that I generated and acted upon in accordance to a detailed analysis of the situation at hand and the desired goals that were stated by key stakeholders and interested parties at the outset of the events that previously unfolded. Two people, Nikon and L have deathnote/detectiveish connections... both would be in question and perhaps L the more so due to his status as pardoner. Although for sure we can't totally overlook Nikon | ||
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On February 23 2010 03:02 Nikon wrote: Oh, I see what you're doing here. Looks like I'm going to need a medic to protect me tonight. I wouldn't call for medic protection like that, talk to Ver since he's the one coordinating protection. | ||
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On February 24 2010 02:47 L wrote: 1) you're sumiyoshi. 2) you dodged the question 3) Caller's lying. His PM to me could not have been honest and followed up with no other attempts to communicate. Additionally he votes to lynch me asap as the day starts. 4) Scamp only responds when called out then goes afk again? LOL I'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE. When scamp produces as town he does so consistently. Between him and Chez, 1 is mafia, and if Scamp flips red we get a list of 4 relatively reliable rolechecks. Granted that we can win with 2 mafia left on either team, even if the sumi GF is hiding in that list its irrelevant. 5) you dodged the question. Those might be good points but I have a hard time believing it after what happened to redtooth | ||
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On February 24 2010 03:09 Nikon wrote: Quickstriker can still be a miller! Lynch L. Chances of hitting another Miller are slim now that one is gone. | ||
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On February 24 2010 03:13 Nikon wrote: What are you talking about? The chance is exactly 50% - either you do or you don't. Lol what? That's not true at all | ||
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On February 24 2010 13:45 johnnyspazz wrote: Fishball, do you trust QuickStriker to mod-kill himself? I know this is directed at Fishball... but no we shouldn't trust him to do this... modkilling yourself is never good option and I wouldn't trust anyone to take it. | ||
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