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On February 14 2010 15:26 Ace wrote: Come on L, you're really trying hard to force my death here. This is pretty bad play :/
When I flip green, you should just offer yourself to be voted off. I think the moonlight rider is the most complete set of linked clues from the first post. I'm open to alternative explanations of who its pointing to, but no one's decided to balls up and go for it.
Including you.
If you flip red and I'm crowned as the best clue guy ever, I'll be sure to abuse my status and authority to get you killed off on day 1 using blatantly unrelated clues instead of incredibly damning ones in a future game. Sound good?
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On February 14 2010 15:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote: ALSO NOTE:
Anyone bringing up previous games to justify ones actions in the current game should not be validated on that. If you are playing for town and analyze clues one way, being red does not mean you will analyze them the same way.
In the case of L vs Ace.
Yes as town, L nailed truthbringer.
If L is mafia this game, he would be trying to remove ace because is he is A) a mafia member of another group B) townie that could threaten his position
Yes, L could be a townie but he is still pushing to hard on day 1 to kill off one player based off clues. I'm all for killing the moonlight rider. If you can show me that he isn't Ace, I'll gladly listen to what you have to say.
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On February 14 2010 15:38 Zato-1 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 15:12 madnessman wrote: As others have mentioned, in the passage there is quite a lot of imagery regarding darkness and light. A lot of players' profiles allude to this in some form or another. So in this regard, getting carried away and everybody jumping on the bandwagon and pointing fingers at individuals whose profiles have a vague connection to these clues may not be the best idea. Well I'll be damned, someone actually made a compelling case for why the suspicion on Ace may be misplaced. Color me impressed. The fact that darkness and light references not only have to do with the twin horsemen that killed Qatol, but go on with the burning house, the shadowy figure that killed Incognito and the radiant being that killed Kennigit... it does raise the possibility that while trying to portray one mafia family with imagery of darkness and the other with light, Incognito unwittingly placed Ace in the crossfire. I am now prepared to admit that the evidence against Ace is insufficient. Well done, madnessman. I went back and looked at the clues because 789 was brought up, and I decided to fully flesh out the moonlight rider because there are a number of directly linked clues that people ignore when discussing him.
Here i've bolded the relevant clues:
+ Show Spoiler +As darkness set over the town of Liquidia, a light, warm, wind blew across the land. The moon, now high in the sky, peeked in and out of the clouds and cast ominous shadows throughout the streets. The town was quiet except for a few straggling workers plodding home. The town had been exhausted from the last rebuilding, and many shopkeepers lacked the will and the customers to stay open through the evening.
Mayor Incognito peered out of his apartment building, noticing the tranquility that had recently come to the town. After all, the mafia had been swiftly eliminated last year, and was unlikely to come back. Or so he thought.
For the most part, the town was dark, excepting the moon which occasionally peeked out of the clouds. As Pardoner Kennigit prepared to retire for the night, he noticed that one room in the City Hall building remained lit. It was Qatol, who had been slaving laboriously in drafting a new constitution for the town. Sighing, Qatol decided to call it quits for the night. The new town constitution was almost complete; it only had a few details that needed to be straightened out. So he turned off the light and began his trek home.
Dreamflower, whose house was on the outskirts of town, was nervous at the sight of the weather outside. She was not comforted by the fact that shadows kept appearing around her house, although she knew it was only the moon behind the moving clouds. Suddenly however, she noticed two horsemen stopped on the ridge in the distance. Nowadays, it was strange for anyone to be out this late at night. Wary that the mafia had returned, dreamflower quickly walked back to her closet and retrieved the most accurate gun she could find, and parked near her window, waiting.
Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds. Dreamflower became more nervous, and pointed her gun out the window, waiting for the horsemen to approach. However, she was startled as she noticed a figure walking towards the horsemen. She breathed a sigh of relief when she recognized Qatol. But what was Qatol doing out so late at night? Dreamflower was puzzled, but was snapped back into reality as she noticed the horsemen were only a football field away from her location. Thinking quickly, she decided not to fire a shot, but ran outside to get Qatol to safety. She tried to run in the shadows, but was caught in the middle of the road as the moon pierced through the cloud layer and shone directly on her. The horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react. She leaped to the left, and narrowly avoided death. But the second horseman just cackled loudly. Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly. In a panic, dreamflower ran back into her house to grab her gun, but it was futile. The ground felt moist, and dreamflower slipped as she ran through her front door. The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.
Incognito was almost falling asleep standing up, but then noticed a house in flames in the distance. Immediately taking action, he raced down stairs and called up Kennigit to take care of the incident. By the time that both Kennigit and Incognito were racing towards dreamflower’s burning house, there was more commotion in the streets. Panicked citizens walked out of their houses to figure out what was happening, but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside. The mayor and pardoner stopped in the town square, pausing for a moment to come up with a plan. But no plan would arise. The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square. Kennigit had time to get his thoughts together, and swiftly chased after the figure. But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen. Fearing that his end was near, Kennigit hid behind a barrel of wine, and was astonished that the horseman did not pursue him. However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.
So essentially we have two portions in which horsemen take place; the attack at dreamflower's and the kennigit incident.
In the first portion, we have two horsemen. The first is the moonlight rider. The second is the cackling rider. The moonlight rider has a number of defining features. -Can blend into shadows. -Has a spear. -Reflects moonlight to blind. -Can essentially walk through walls. -Heavy enough to instantly kill people.
Secondary features which could be herrings:
-Got Qatol out of his house. -Related to the moon.
In the second portion, we have one of the horseman who reappears. Is it moonlight rider or the cackling horseman? On my first reading I assume it was the first horseman, but it could be the second as well.
-Is quick or stealthy; He appears suddenly. -Is blinded by the light.
After this, an angel appears who vaporizes kennigit in a shower of blue light. In my first reading I assumed that the horseman was the one that started glowing then did the vaporization.
Overall, I'm gonna have to re-examine the profiles, because its pretty clear that I misread two pretty large things (angel isn't the horseman and the town horseman might not be the first horseman). I originally thought 789 was a pretty good candidate for the moonlight rider, but not anymore after looking at the clues again. I'm going to run through the profiles again tomorrow to see if anyone fits this new set of themes better. I'ma do that tomorrow.
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After looking at every profile again, as well as having reread the clues, I'm pretty confident in a few additional things;
Empyrean is the best link to the Angel. Just look up Empyrean on wikipedia, everything's there. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empyrean As of yet, I went through the everyone's profile looking for someone who has links to fire, angels and radiance and couldn't find anyone who had more than 1. Emp has all 3, and his profile is pretty much empty; if he was to have a clue, it would be from his name.
Ace and Mystlord are still the frontrunners (I'd pick Ace over Myst for a few reasons; Myst has a harder lock on the spear clue, but pretty much all of the rest favor Ace. The spear clue itself nearly completely exonerates 789 from being the moonlight rider too) when it comes to the moonlight rider, but its possible that they're both guilty depending on how the clues are attributed.
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On February 14 2010 17:05 DoctorHelvetica wrote: L, saying things like the use of a spear exonerates 789 to me is a bit hasty. Wait and see if the spear is used again. In the last mafia game I was in, there were many irrelevant clues that people focused on. What comes to mind is a clue pointing to derfboy where the victim was sledgehammered, which was completely irrelevant. People focused on the sledgehammer and the description of the killer when the relevant info was that the killer sabotaged the victims house prior to the attack. I agree partially. I don't think he's 'innocent', but i think there's enough divergence between the moonlight rider and him to have that clue stick to him. The connection to blindness, the moon, him jumping through walls, the instant death on impact all seem far weaker than the associated links elsewhere.
The spear really was the thing that tipped me over the edge in terms of ruling him out.
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L please remember that these are Day 1 clues you are analyzing. We've never had clues this good on day 1 before. If the clues were garbage and didn't point to people, I'd have reserved my judgement.
I'm pretty sure everyone who's been in multiple of our clue games knows that the size and content of this day 1 post is not normal.
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So uh, who was the first mafia godfather that you're contrasting with BC, the OTHER mafia godfather?
Also: Empyrean is a fucking good clue catch. FUCKING LOOK AT THAT SHIT GODDAMIT.
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Also i'm sleeping now; Shoulda gone to sleep 4 hours ago.
Fuck you mafia, and your insomnia effects.
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So, the moment I went to sleep, my insomniac mind came back to the question that I think is the core of this game: What should the town do?
And then I realized that its pretty obvious; The town needs to not die, and the town needs to have mafia killed. But how can you accomplish both while saving blues? I kinda wondered for a while, but then It became incredible obvious; Fully analyse each clueset.
The idea is; If we can come up with consensus hit targets for multiple people per night, either mafia moves on them, or we do. With normal one team games, mafia members will try and debate clues away from their members, but given the fact that 80% of people are going to want any single particular clue to stick, we can be assured that if we have more voice posting less fluff that we can force them to shut up.
When going to sleep, my recent rereading of the clues made me note that there are probably clues linked to 6+ mafia in the first post, with 2-3 personae being 'hittable' tonight in my current reading. This got me thinking; if we figured out all 6 credible hits, mafia are kinda forced to push their own hits towards town consensus targets.
Upon realizing this, I came to the conclusion that Ver is 100% wrong; Discussing clues doesn't put the town into disarray: it lets town control both their own lynch AND night hits. The net result of persuasive clue targets that the mafia believe are that we BOTH save ourselves AND hunt mafia.
While we may want to tone it down near the end to prevent one mafia team from dying off, it might be possible for 2 sides to win this (Hosts, how does victory work? ).
Also, to reply to ver on page 27:
So my decision to run for mayor is basically, do I want to even possibly subject myself to that again (as it will affect my performance), or do I take the risk of letting another mafia get into power?
Sup with another mafia, dawg.
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On February 15 2010 03:04 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 02:42 L wrote: When going to sleep, my recent rereading of the clues made me note that there are probably clues linked to 6+ mafia in the first post, with 2-3 personae being 'hittable' tonight in my current reading. This got me thinking; if we figured out all 6 credible hits, mafia are kinda forced to push their own hits towards town consensus targets.
Upon realizing this, I came to the conclusion that Ver is 100% wrong; Discussing clues doesn't put the town into disarray: it lets town control both their own lynch AND night hits. The net result of persuasive clue targets that the mafia believe are that we BOTH save ourselves AND hunt mafia. . That kinda goes on the assumption that the clues are right. I don't think that the mafia would be "forced" to push their own hits like that, since they'll probably make their own decisions, but I do agree that the more good suspects that we have as a town the more likely they'll get hit by the respective mafia, if we make a good enough case for them.
That's the thing; Mafia can't sit back and not analyse clues. If someone brings up links which are correct, or brings up clues which are plausible, not only will the town be looking at them, but so will the mafia.
In the case that the target is wrong; that shit is going to happen. But is it going to happen at a rate of 75+%, which is the rate that a random hit will nail a townie? No. Especially not when you have 10 people who are probably going to be talking about the validity of those clues behind closed doors per team.
And yes, the mafia are forced to use hits if they believe that a mafia has been outed; town kp is negligible this game compared to mafia kp. This game essentially comes down to which mafia team can cluerape the other the fastest. The faster we help them do that, the better off we are as a town. The only possible things they might want to do is kill off certain blues depending on which arguments are being raised. Even then; DTs and medics seem to be more of a positional piece that moves between the two mafia teams than a direct threat.
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On February 15 2010 06:15 Bill Murray wrote: ALSO, think about this:
if i was mafia, i would have people i KNEW i could talk to, so i would ask them how to post/who to vote for/when to wipe my own ass. i would also not have posted on here AT ALL unless they told me that it's ok. i would have been lurking in the shadows.
as it is, i've cast myself in an unfavorable light. do you think that the mafia would really do this? no, they wouldn't. this is why that if you think i'm actually mafia or a good lynch target you aren't a strong player. i'm NOT saying i'm a strong player, but the fact that i realize this and someone voting for me doesn't would make them an even weaker player than i am. It would be much more advisable to me to lynch someone who is lurking in the shadows.... perhaps someone who hasn't posted in the thread a whole lot but is active in other topics. Wine In Front of Me. http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Wifom
Bad defense.
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Chez claims DT during TSL.
What a jerk.
I'm pretty sure you aren't the DT and are claiming to get those people killed during the lynch/night, but sadly even if you are a DT, there's nothing that you know that we don't. I agree with everyone in the clue section with the exception of 789; i can't fit clues to him that don't fit Emp better.
As far as the behavioral issue; I'm still not 100% certain regarding BM. I expected him to be a bit more angry like RoL was last time he was accused given his level of skill and veterancy.
Redtooth wants to be mayor; offers the safest possible lynch suggestion and nothing else concrete. I've got a feeling that you're a DT, hatter or red. Leaning hatter, tbh.
unless he has some sort of strategical reason for doing so Getting under Ace's skin is its own reward. Don't really think anyone else warrants the same jabs, besides maybe scamp.
SCAMP START FUCKING POSTING.
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the reason i toned down my criticism of the analysis is because i realized how abnormally long and detailed the day post was so it is possible incognito did sneak in more content than initially perceived. i still don't think we can get anything good out of it but i'm willing to at least listen to L's clue analysis.
This is why I really dislike people bringing pre-conceived notions about how the game should be played from dissimilar games into future games. I talked about this last game too, but using the assumptions we used from mafia 2, for instance, in a small clueless game, seems absurd. Similarly, there's a lot of analyse and deconstruct in the current game.
So for everyone who's making assumptions based on shorthand that you developed in prior games; please stop.
If you don't think clues are relevant day 1 given the size and detail of the day 1 clues we have in our current game, feel free to say why.
Redtooth linked to incog's clue making strategy; Note that its pretty much the exact same thing as what I do; You make a persona (ie, he's a snail for instance, or he's a gundam) and then you simply add a few descriptors which are related from the profile. While its difficult to come up with a persona for some of the cluesets (ie. the hyena like laugh, or the cackling horseman), some of the setups in day 1 are pretty fucking hard to ignore. Empyrean, Ace and Mystlord all fit. Empyrean is the angel. Ace is the moonlight horseman, Mystlord seems to be the rooftop killer. If you have alternative readings of the clue I WANT YOU TO POST and don't give me a 4 line block of trash, either. If you're bad, that's fine; try to focus on a certain part of the text, or take someone's clue analysis and look through the profiles to find alterior fits.
Seriously, get to work you lazy douchebags. We're going to get cut to pieces if you morons just sit around.
Additional note; If i end up being correct on three mafia on the first day there will be much self-aggrandization after the game ends.
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On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour
Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing?
Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments.
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On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. Purely around Ace?
I've named Ace, Mystlord and Empyrean, and if you bothered to read anything since last night you'd know that I'm most certain of Empyrean.
The fact that I spent so much time talking about Ace's clues were because other people decided to do things like you did and attempt to discredit clue analysis without actually looking at the content of the analysis itself.
Once more, and its the last time I'll ask you. What specific clue link was overanalyzed? To add to the question; As a prior host, you should understand the basics of clue creation, so why did you ignore my request for specificity when you're one of the best placed players to deal with it in the face of my repeated attempt to get people to challenge the validity of the interpretation itself?
Perhaps finally; Why tell other people to compile lists? You aren't a shitty player. Make them yourself. I'm pretty sick of people giving halfhearted statements like yours praising a path of action then not doing any work in that path.
I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link
Make one. I did the majority of the work for you already. Feel free to make yourself useful.
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On February 15 2010 09:34 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. I think that while the connections could be red herrings, we should lynch whichever connection has generated the most discussion, not whichever connection links to the most irritating or inactive poster. What good does it serve us to lynch someone who is connected to the clues but hasn't created any controversy, or any meaningful argument? We don't gain any information about other players, because no other players have made arguments about them. Lynching an inactive who hasn't posted a defense, or who no one has posted in defense of, is akin to picking a lynch name out of a hat, regardless of which way it flips its not leading us anywhere. We shouldn't lynch the most talked about connection; we should lynch the most certain connection. These are two different things. I don't give a shit if someone doesn't reply if the weight of the evidence against them is overwhelming. The only thing your suggestion does is allow people the option of ignoring a topic instead of dealing with it, which is VERY, VERY bad.
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Oh foolishness, you posted on day 1 in a rather inflammatory tone instead of lurking until day 3 in an attempt to keep yourself alive.
I was going to call you out after scamp, but way to show initiative.
Also: 789, that's not a link to the arson killing you stupid twat. Its a link to the Angel's radiant flame killing.
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In retrospect, that reply to 789 was rather mean. Despite hating to put 'fluff' posts up, I feel the need to keep decorum seeing as someone has been warned before and apologize for the tone.
But still, try to keep up with what's being said for crying out loud.
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On February 15 2010 10:23 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 10:00 L wrote: Oh foolishness, you posted on day 1 in a rather inflammatory tone instead of lurking until day 3 in an attempt to keep yourself alive.
I was going to call you out after scamp, but way to show initiative.
Also: 789, that's not a link to the arson killing you stupid twat. Its a link to the Angel's radiant flame killing. Why thank you good sir. Although I am sorry for letting down your expectations of me. If you are elected mayor, are you opting to kill Ace? I just might have to vote for you if so. Another point that needs to be mentioned. Stop cluttering up the thread with useless facts about your lives! This seems to happen every mafia game, and I'm going to go ahead and call it the "Nobody Cares Syndrome". The Nobody Cares Syndrome can be applied to those who make posts that nobody cares about. Let me demonstrate through example: NOBODY CARES! NOBODY CARES! NOBODY CARES! Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 13:48 Abenson wrote: *lurks* Can't think of any intelligent things to say/contribute :D NOBODY CARES! Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 14:45 nemY wrote: Ugh damn it... reading some 7 odd pages trying to catch up... NOBODY CARES! Don't fall victim to the Nobody Cares Syndrome. The truth of the matter is, nobody cares about your own life. This is mafia, go read the introduction about how to play the game. No where in there does it say to make posts about what you are currently doing. Nobody needs to know that you are reading the thread, playing dota, studying for school, or blowing some random guy for drugs. People only need to know what's related to the game. The reason I bring this up is because these posts clutter up the thread. I cringe every time I have to read one of L's or Ace's posts, but at least their posts have substance and arguments in them and not "Lol ju5t got back fr0m hosting New Years party w00t lololol". For one it makes reading through the thread the most tedious job in the world. If I had the money I'd consider hiring somebody to read through the thread and pick out the important posts that I actually need to read. As a general guideline, any post that has fewer than 5 lines of text can safely be ignored. When "good" people actually need to go digging through the thread for evidence, it makes it ten times worse having to dig through these useless 2 line posts. Don't become victim to Nobody Cares Syndrome, the goal is to find the mafia, not make it impossible to find them.
Its either him or emp. I was hoping emp would reply so that we'd get more information if we killed him. I haven't really fully thought about which is a better lynch choice with respect to having mafia baited into not hitting town members, though. I should probably do that.
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Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.
In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.
BC i'm commenting on your post, had to get a word in edgewise because these two parties are silly.
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