EPTOn February 18 2010 13:00 citi.zen wrote:
Maybe I am missing something, but doesn't the mad hatter have 2 bombs?
Maybe I am missing something, but doesn't the mad hatter have 2 bombs?
plants one per night. maximum bombs possible on n1; 1
TL Mafia XVIII - Page 5
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plants one per night. maximum bombs possible on n1; 1 | ||
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On February 18 2010 13:12 nemY wrote: btw L i like your clue linking to me, but unless you can somehow link "We invite you to make a holy pilgrimage to the town square today to offer a human sacrifice to the gods. That is all." to me then I feel like you're digging for nothing  Oh, so if I wanted to link a clue to you I'd need to have someone say something like "We invite you to.... IM THE DETECTIVE" prior to an uproar? | ||
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6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes Very interesting how there are 3 vote 'bursts' in which 2 people vote one after another.6:42-------BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:28---------d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:54-----------infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes 7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes | ||
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On February 19 2010 01:10 madnessman wrote: So I have an incredibly short attention span, and with the way this game has gone, I can feel my interest slipping -_-;; It seems to me as though both mafia teams are discussing behind closed doors, and townies are not doing anything. I also have a feeling I'm going to get hit tonight, so I figure I may as well take a gamble and write this. Basically, I would like to propose to townies that we band together, unite, and vote in unison to lynch L. The basis behind my proposal is mainly behavioral related, with some clue analysis thrown in. These are my reasons: 1. The chances that a mayor/pardoner is a member of the mafia are extremely, extremely high. Here's what I wrote in a PM to DoctorHelvetica the day before yesterday: After looking at Foolishness' post though, maybe I am giving the mafia too much credit. Maybe there's a chance they played it too risky/were too disorganized and let a mayoral position slip from their grasp. But I think the chances of that are quite slim. A single team could singlehandedly have won the mayoral/pardoner positions given how many people abstained. (This doesn't mean that we should discredit the people who abstained/voted for other candidates though, obviously. As DoctorHelvetica was so kind to share: ) As we can also see from Foolishness' post, a mayoral candidate who played it pretty "safely" and didn't rely on a last minute influx of votes was L. But many of the last influx of votes were green townies, and therefore I think there's a better chance L is mafia over redtooth. I am well aware that I was one of the foolish people who voted L for mayor, but the reasons why I did so I see now in retrospect are quite foolish. I voted for him because (a) he presented himself as a leader with a strong, decisive voice at a time when everyone was confused and unsure (b) i didn't think his profile had enough substance for incognito to write clues on. with regards to (a), I see how stupid it was of me to jump on the L bandwagon. First off, the fact that he presented himself as a decisive leader is something any mafia member would do. To hold influence over the town is such an invaluable asset in this game. with regards to (b), this leads me to point #2. 2. At first, I thought that it was impossible for L to be mafia because his profile has absolutely no substance whatsoever. I believe he wasn't able to upload a picture until AFTER the game started, and his quote is "YOU JUST DON'T KNOW." this isn't a reference to anything as far as i can tell, and is SO little for incognito to base claims on. i now see that i was quite stupid to think that way. while his profile/picture contains absolutely nothing for incog to base his clues off, his very name "L" does fit the clues. L is of course in reference to the detective character in death note. let's read this part of day 2's passage: + Show Spoiler + When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. what characterizes L (the detective) in death note? he is extremely thoughtful, clever, observant. the way the mafiaso acts in this passage just REEKS of someone with L's character. he plots/plans/observes/is clever and thoughtful. he doesn't just jump into action but is very sly and clever about what he does. he cautiously checks the room first. he checks the papers to see if they're important. he slyly tiptoes up the stairs so he doesn't alert his victim. he cleverly notices fresh tracks and follows them. with regard to the whole darkness and light thing, L's enemy is Light Yagami. perhaps the whole L hides in darkness because his enemy is Light could account for this part of the clue. 3. so the pm that i sent doctorhelvetica -- time stamp: 09:53. next thing i know, meeple goes + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis: ... Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r] Bickering and madness references Dunno about the others yet followed by L who goes: + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2010 11:18 L wrote: I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty. nemy madnessman mystlord phrubaz Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/ BRB 12 HOURS. and then later his explanation: + Show Spoiler + The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessman Basically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though. this is the passage in which both meeple and L reference: + Show Spoiler + d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain. are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! this coming from the guy who claims he's such an excellent clue analyzer with great success. because when people squabble/argue/draw grafitti, these are extremely telling signs of MADNESS. the fact that both meeple and L would out of nowhere draw such bullshit, terrible clue analysis on me a few minutes apart definitely caught my attn. i'd like to give meeple and L credit and say there's no way they could be so terrible at clue analysis, but why would they both suddenly do this? and within minutes of each other? my behavior has been in no way suspicious; if anything, i started off this game completely ignorant of the mechanics of internet mafia and extremely unsure/looking for the guidance of vets. therefore it is a possibility to me that doctorhelvetica shared my pm (in which i am suspicious of redtooth+L) with them, as both accusations sprung up soon after i pm'd dr.H. but honestly, i think it is behavior like this/tendency to point fingers and create suspicion without a basis that are telltale signs of mafia. SO i hope i have made a good enough argument that all you townies/other mafia team will consider lynching L tonight. of course i am not absolutely certain that i am correct in my accusation, but i've thought this through and i dont think we have much to lose. i understand that u all may be wary to lynch L; after all, L is pardoner and has the ability to pardon lynches. but what use is a pardoner to us who can't figure out the difference between mafia and townsman? as i've shown in #3, we have reason to believe that either his analysis is extremely flawed or that his accusations are heavily biased. there's no point in having a pardoner who MOST LIKELY will end up pardoning people who are mafia members. if he is a mafia member, he will pardon his fellow mafia members. if he isn't a mafia member, he will probably pompously and incorrectly asses the situation, and end up pardoning a mafia member as well. furthermore, the way this game is going down, it's now 25v10v10. we townspeople are STILL disorganized and disunited vs. two coherent, organized teams, and to add insult to injury, we're being picked off like flies. at this point, there's no point in our going after "small fish." we need to hit them now, and where it would hurt. like i said, i could be wrong that L is mafia, but i hope my reasoning has shown that it is worth it to make this gamble. in terms of calculated risks and potential gain, it is very very worth it. 4. on a final note, consider this: L claims he is such an amazing clue analyzer, but currently he is down 0/2. i dont base this as a reason to lynch him, as everyone makes mistakes. HOWEVER, if u scroll through the thread, u will see that he pushed for ace and emp to be killed/lynched both with extreme conviction. i myself am pushing for L to be lynch, but i acknowledge that there is room for error. L does no such thing. any towns person would hesitate and not be so ready to kill off another person, as there's a high chance (3/5th chance) that said person is a fellow townie, and killing off a fellow townie is not beneficial to the rest of the town. on the other hand, a mafia member would not be so hesitant because either way, as long as the person they accuse/push for ISNT on their team, he's either on the rivalry mafia team or a townie, both of which are readily dispensable for him. while i construct my argument on why it is worth it to take this RISK, L doesn't even seem to care about the consequences for the town if he is wrong. tl;dr: just read the bold points. we have strong reason to believe L is mafia. 1. I didn't base the clue link I found to you on your name at all. Madness is so over-broad that it easily leads to red herrings. Any indication of violence in the slightest can be interpreted as madness: the guy who jumps through a wall? normal people dont' do that. the guy who drops a SPHINX on someone? he must be crazy. Etc. Given that i whittled the clue down to the unignorable qualities it had: we have a clue in which 2 men who are in an argument somehow act in some form of unison for no stated reason. Read redtooth's link to old incog clues. You'll find one about a trio of killers which was based on a picture of 3 asian women. Incog uses the number of assailants as the only basis for the clue in that case, which made me look for profiles that were exemplified by 2 characters. In the current instance, the only people I can see linking to the clue are you and XeliN; you have the bird on bird action. He has the wimp and the massive guy. Both involve dualities, but yours is starker. Additionally, there's nothing in his profile that leads me to make a combination with the murder weapon or the spraypainting. Given that, you're still my favorite target for that clue. 2. Consider this; Mafia are the ones who pick their night hits and they avoided half of my day 1 predictions. If the rest of my predictions are false, then yeah, I'll be pretty ashamed. Generally speaking, however, I'm satisfied with my clue link to emp because frankly I still think it was a pretty good find despite being wrong; the only element of the angel killer that I didn't account for was the blue quality of the fire, which others were attributing to bloodycobbler; I said its possible but unlikely, if I recall correctly, and despite being wrong about Emp, I was right about that. So from my day 1 clue suspicions, 2 have been wrong, 1 has been right, and there are another 2-3 that haven't been verified yet. If we lynch myst, we'll know whether or not I'm correct on another.Granted that these were predictions made on the basis of a single clueset, I think my analysis was decen (albeit clearly not perfect). More importantly: consider this once more; Mafia pick who they hit, and someone hit Ace when Ace was probably going to be relatively weak in terms of reputation and ability to push things through. So why hit him? Were they threatened by his 'do nothing and sit around while insulting people' plan? Or did they kill him so that they could set up suspicions regarding his death? I'll leave it to you to see which players have been actively pursuing this course of action, because there are 2 notable ones. 3. Lol L isn't the type to slowly walk through a room. that would be raito. He's the type to sit on a chair and spin while eating cake or sit outside in the rain. + Show Spoiler + I initially suspected shoCkeyy for this clue on the basis that his quote was: "Nothing in the world is more common than unsuccessful people with talent, leave the house before you find something worth staying in for. " I didn't, however, like the volume of herrings; was he a tracker? Was his persona a person who is engaged with food (as per the house description? Is he the TL horse? Is the comment about dark and light referencing the fact that he's out at night? I really didn't have answers for these. This was one of the clue sets that I was hoping to revisit on days 3-4 if other connections came up. I am, however, happy that someone took the time to accuse me, because that probably means that of the 6-7 people I pointed towards today, 3+ of them are on the same team and are shitting bricks. I wouldn't see the motivation to write up a huge offensive post unless there was some if a single person had been cluefucked given the amount of leeway before losing kp. Additionally, the fact that you essentially admit that you're mouthing for DrH makes me think that you're probably innocent and that he's on their team. | ||
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The clue could also refer to johnnyspazz... for both the spazz reference and his profile containing sonic/dr.robotnik as two enemies. Oh shit, I didn't even see that gif animate. This is a very good catch. | ||
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This makes me a confirmed innocent. No it doesn't. Makes you very likely as innocent, but it doesn't make you confirmed innocent. Kinda like how DT checking and having them flip blue is a very good indication that they're innocent, but not 100% certain.I'd still claim based on your activity relative to how you play as mafia, but mafia can safely claim hatter, vet and to a certain extent medic as well. Like I said in PMs, I'm not exactly certain how this wins us the game, but the lack of overwhelming handicap that a mafia controlled roleclaim (the side that knows about the medics/DTs will also have sway over the medics/DTs through ver if he's mafia, and thus they won't want to kill them) to us in the immediate future is very small. If one side gains a monsterous advantage in the next 2 nights, we will likely need all of the townspeople to publicly declare. | ||
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Rooftop killer, its time we killed you. | ||
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On February 19 2010 08:58 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Oh, 2nd post edit: I meant to reply to Bill's post I quoted above. We can be like 99% sure that BC didn't place the bomb on zato-1. Mad hatter kills aren't written in as clues. Actually they are. But typically it involves someone dying AND BLOWING UP OTHER PEOPLE. | ||
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On February 19 2010 09:02 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Yeah but i thought generally it was placed at the end of the Day post as a small aside? It all depends on the author I guess, but at least we agree that Zato-1 was definitely not killed by the mad hatter (in fact i'm not even sure why it is a point of discussion... i probably should have just ignored Bill. for some reason i am compelled to correct the trivial mistakes of others). Read the cheese factory mafia, day 3? post. Mafia 8 or 9 or something. There's a nice example of how hatters are clued in. | ||
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On February 19 2010 06:00 Phrujbaz wrote: This is a very tough lynch (as also evidenced by the large number of abstains). I think we shouldn't (yet) lynch anyone that has made at least some useful contributions. That means we should not lynch the following people: Ver Bill Murray Mystlord DoctorHelvetica nemY Zona did post a lot of text, but not really much useful. He seems to have a lot of time though, so maybe if we give him a chance, he will turn those walls of gibberish into walls of win. I do not think we should lynch him yet either. From currently voted for people, that leaves Faronel, Nikoner, and Xelin as acceptable lynch candidates, although I don't really feel enthusiastic about lynching any of them. LOL TIME TO GO BACK AND FIND INTERESTING QUOTES FROM PEOPLE WHO DIDNT THINK THEY WOULD DIE. | ||
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Clue Stealer! For that, I will be speedy and put down my clue analysis asap next day so that no one can claim that I stole from them. So there! | ||
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On February 20 2010 08:53 Ver wrote: I'm still in an awkward situation and comp isn't fixed so I can't really do much atm. But really, 2nd night has had about 2 pages of posts, many of them fluff....is there any point to playing anymore? It's not like it's only town inactivity either, as at least one of the mafia families is disorganized and not particularly active. Half the people in the game show up only to abstain and it's not like all of them are mafia either. What's the point? I'd still be interested if the situation was going to change but at this rate it doesn't look like it since the beta only began, and it's way too early for any side to have a real advantage either since this format takes several days before one side could really have a telling advantage. Who's actually in favor of continuing to play and why? Yeah the SC2 beta pretty much gutted what was a very active game. If we get like under 5 pages for next day period, i'm probably going to ask to be modkilled because of boredom. | ||
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I don't even know if I'm allowed to explain why I had to edit these posts. | ||
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Quickstriker as the pale fork guy Redtooth as the stain Decafchicken as the gigantic rock dropping bird? These are REALLLLLLY preliminary, but fuck you I'm claiming them first. | ||
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On February 20 2010 10:17 Caller wrote: So here are the mayoral candidates: BloodyC0bbler dead townie citi.zen l10f meeple dead townie Ver Ace dead townie redtooth Bill Murray dead townie DoctorHelvetica dead sumiyoshi So now we're down to citi.zen, l10f, Ver, and redtooth. I'm betting at least one of these guys is scummy. I doubt it's Ver, redtooth's been afk, citi.zen's still been contributing, and l10f has been afk. meh I would contribute more but watching people play SC2 is just too big of a priority right now -_- maybe more thinking later On that note, I just went and updated foolishnesses old post with the new information we have because of the fact that uh... its a secret. Time-----------------Action--------------------------------------------------Results 5:57-------------------------------------------------------------------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 4 votes 5:57------citi.zen changes from abstain to redtooth--L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 6:32---------L changes from abstain to Chezinu--------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 6:42-------BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:28---------d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:54-----------infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes 7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:10----------------Zona abstains--------------------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:45-----------------redtooth claims medic--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:46------------Ace changes from redtooth to L-----------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:49-----------------meeple votes for redtooth---------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:52---------------tredmasta changes to Ver----------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 7 votes 8:53------------d3 changes from Chezinu to redtooth---L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 7 votes 8:55------------Nikoner changes from Ver to abstain----L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:55---------- Ace changes from L to redtooth--------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 8 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:57---------- Empyrean votes for redtooth-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 9 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:58----------BM changes from Chezinu to redtooth-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 10 votes; Ver - 6 votes updated. Nikoner stands out even more now; with so much green, and now a confirmed red voting for ver, why would he throw down the deciding vote after having voted for ver only an hour before? He also voted within a minute of a known red. His profile has graffitti. Which brings me to another point; It seems the herrings that are listed in the clues are valid clues, but they aren't linked to the particular killer. We may have been very, very wrong about how we assumed bombs would be declared, as well as how double hits would be declared in the clueset. We just lost 2 hatters. That's 4 bombs. There should be TEN people dead. We're missing 3. The clues dont' account for 3 overlapping hits. This is pretty bad news. | ||
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On February 20 2010 10:51 meeple wrote: I don't think its 4 bombs... Don't the rules say one player per night? Two hatters. Night 2. That's a full 4 bombs. | ||
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