Incognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 2
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[NyC]HoBbes
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On January 25 2010 12:58 DoctorHelvetica wrote: What a game huh? Watched it at the local sports bar. Unbelievable. Half of my family is from New Orleans, they say Bourbon street is going completely batshit insane | ||
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On January 26 2010 06:42 citi.zen wrote: There are way too many inactive players, who barely do anything but the bare minimum not to get mod killed. Given the size of this group, it makes perfect sense for the mafia to hide in that bunch, as Ser Aspi said already. I say in the future we pick some people in that inactive group, based on whatever clues we can gather. I still like Hobbes and keit for example. They are the best fit for the night 1 killed 1, and they certainly don't seem interested in solving this thing or contributing. When accused, they quickly sprung to action, then faded back into the crowd. Just my 2c. I have 20something posts on this thread, most of which are clue analysis | ||
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On January 26 2010 11:09 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Wow. Losing two active townies is really going to hurt. Thank goodness no blues were hit though. From glancing over the clues, the only thing I'm sure of now is that keit is mafia. Not only do the day 1 clues reference him, but the barbaric nature of the third attack as well as the attacker searching for food in the corpses pockets is a clear reference to the cookie monster. His behavior has been somewhat suspicious as well. The first attacker seems stealthy, quick, and vicious. Perhaps like a tiger? Every day, there is something putting at least a little bit of suspicion on Hobbes. I was about to say, the person making the clues has it in for me... | ||
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At this point, I regret to say that I agree we need to lynch Dr.H. The risk of him being in the position he is in and red outweighs the risk of lynching a very active green. I'm not 100% sure that DrH is mafia, but I feel that any possibility of it is too great a risk for us to allow him to remain in the game. Thirdly, worst comes to worst and he comes up green, we have some serious leads based on the DT who "cluechecked." Either way we'll end up with leads. Fourthly and lastly, Medics, at least one of you guys needs to be protecting citizen, since he's the only person who is for sure on our side, and since he has all of the information in this scenario via PM's. | ||
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On January 27 2010 12:47 Mystlord wrote: It's a fair case to lynch DH, but we HAVE to consider the possibility that the DT who clue checked DH is mafia. Earlier, we saw a fair case to lynch DH based off of the thin knife clue brought up by keit, but it never gained traction considering how much steam the kane]deth[ idea had. At this point, a mafia member could have thought to sow the seeds of confusion and make a plot to lynch DH. At this point, the fact of the matter is that either keit or DoctorHelvetica is innocent. One is absolutely a townie, because we cannot have two people making such great pushes for each other to be lynched as both mafia. Therefore, the possible combinations are: mafia vs townie and townie vs townie. I personally highly doubt a townie vs townie situation because of the fact that by lynching the other, the person pushing for the lynch will almost certainly appear innocent. Therefore, I believe that we have a mafia vs townie situation. In that line of thinking, confirming the identity of one will confirm the identity of the other. By lynching DH, we'll know keit's true colors, and by lynching keit, we'll know DH's true colors. Therefore, the question now becomes who to lynch? My personal vote is for keit. Here's my reasoning: If we lynch DoctorHelvetica, we lose a vital power that will almost certainly confirm whether a person is mafia or not, as well as protect a vital blue or townie (if things get that desperate). Therefore, in this situation, where we're unsure as to the guilt or innocence of either player, we have to make the decision to try and save our powers as best as possible, especially considering the fact that we have lynched no mafia. Therefore, we have a lot more to lose from lynching DoctorHelvetica and finding out that he's green/blue, versus lynching keit and finding out that he's green/blue. One final point on this. We have to realize that at this point, we for sure for sure have at least two clues on one mafia member. We have 8 clues for 7 mafia, so we're looking for repeating themes. If there's one repeating theme that I've seen, it's almost certainly referring to the cookie monster. Whether it's the apple shoving down the throat from day 1, or the barbarous nature of either the 2nd or 3rd attack from day 2, we've seen a lot more evidence pointing to keit than to DH. Therefore, I again emphasize my vote to lynch keit. Killing keit will not reveal Dr.H's true colors. Even though I currently suspect Dr.H, if we kill keit and he turns up green, all this shows us is that we have once again mis-analyzed the clues. It does not necessarily mean that Dr.H is mafia, anymore than any of our other incorrect lynches have proved that the people who suggested them were mafia. If we kill keit and he turns up red, that could just suggest that the Mafia decided to sacrifice one of their least active members to save their biggest, most active member, which would not be such a bad strategy. | ||
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On January 27 2010 13:53 derfboy wrote: whoops. i really had no idea there was that rule. sorry. hope that doesn't entail getting modkilled It doesn't, unless you do it repetitively | ||
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On January 27 2010 14:06 Mystlord wrote: So you're going to lynch based on the fact that my name is "close enough" to the word "mist"? I cannot see the logical connection that you're making there. This is what my name is actually referring to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myst I'm posting that link because it seems that people are stymied as to an alternative interpretation of the first half of my name. 1. We're not lynching you right now, we are possibly lynching you in the future, mainly based on your posts relative to DoctorHelvetica. 2. The clues are not based on your interpretation of your username, but on the person creating the clues' interpretation of your username. | ||
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