EPTIncognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 14
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
On January 21 2010 04:46 t_co wrote: My mistake. Still, the point is, rushing to ask people to lynch off the voices of a substantial minority and 1 day's worth of clues is kind of suicidal. It takes 2 points to draw a line, after all. With 4 mafia clues per day and only 8 mafia total, it shouldn't take that long for more mafia clues to pile up that point us in a better direction. Cruel as it may sound, the first day lynch matters little in the long run, because the town is still at 34 members and the mafia only at 8, which means there is a substantial margin of error available to us. I guess you lost me: 1st paragraph is saying "lets not rush with the lynching"; 2nd paragraph says "we have a substantial error margin". Am I reading it wrong? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On January 21 2010 04:46 citi.zen wrote: That's a good point. Does this mean mafiosi are more likely to bandwagon to "blend in"? Possibly. If a mafia is running, he will get a nice pad of mafia votes. However, there are more townies than mafia so keep that in mind. I like t_co's assertion that late votes may be the ones that are mafia votes. If we end up finding out later that a mafia/sheriff was mafia, that's when we should go back to the original voting records. Until then, I don't think we can get anything valuable out of it. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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keit
1584 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 04:48 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Well someone has to be lynched right? Can the mayor pass on lynching and if so do we want to waste that opportunity? I don't want to rush anyone towards a suspect, in fact I think we should do the opposite. Keep our cool and take this time to think our decision out. However, I do think at the end of the day we need to make a decision. There are 7 mafia not 8 btw It's better still if more people can post in this thread and have their voices heard rather than leaving the discussion for lynching someone in the hands of 1/6th of the town. With that being said, if we are to discuss it would be helpful if people refrained from defensive reactions and explanations of their own profile when accused. Thread space would be much better devoted to actually discussing who else could be potential mafia. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
I'm keeping track of everyone who was suspected and why in notepad so near the end I guess I'll post something comprehensive and maybe the mayor can make his pick on what we all agree is the most solid connection. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 04:50 citi.zen wrote: I guess you lost me: 1st paragraph is saying "lets not rush with the lynching"; 2nd paragraph says "we have a substantial error margin". Am I reading it wrong? What it means it that we can afford to let a mafia live today as there is little chance the mafia will take control of the town by having 1 extra member. Also, as clues pile up AND the proportion of mafia to town grows (as the town shrinks) it gets easier and easier to analyze clues. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
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789
United States959 Posts
But yeah, there isn't enough to risk lynching a potential detective or medic or some other blue going fishing for a mafia. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 05:08 citi.zen wrote: I've decided to keep any as-of-yet unreferenced clues in a separate, un-posted file. Otherwise it will make life hard on the writers of the story. Good thinking. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 05:03 citi.zen wrote: That's what I am trying to understand, it seems he is making two opposing arguments. Nope, just saying that we have enough of a margin of error to allow the mafia to run rampant for a day or two (that is +EV (expected value) for all our subsequent lynches); on the flip side, lynching anyone on Day 1 is -EV. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 21 2010 04:30 citi.zen wrote: Are we getting a new set of clues tonight? More clues after the election, mayoral lynch, and the night 1 actions. So not for ~52 hours | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 21 2010 02:30 DoctorHelvetica wrote: 3. You can not autochange your vote to the losing or winning bandwagon. nvm You can change your vote by posting in the voting thread normally. This rule is intended to stop people from saying "If Incognito gets 5 votes, autochange my vote to him to ensure a lynch." Basically, an automatic bandwagon. | ||
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