TL Mafia XV

To: Scamp [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: L
Date: 10/28/09 16:55
I have a good reason to believe L is lying. If he is lying, he is mafia.

You said you still suspect him. Explain to me. I think I can trust you.

-----------------------------------------

Original Message:{Scamp}
Yeah but can I trust YOU? I dunno...

It really doesn't matter, though. I'm going to explain my reasons soon, or after L posts at least one more time. I need to go back over his posts to get quotes to back up what I'm saying, but I have no problem explaining the general idea.

L is supposed to be this really good player. He's supposed to help the town and find people that are acting suspicious. He hasn't even really tried. He said he was going to 100 percent lynch me if he was elected mayor (not that he was ever close to that) and then he backed off me completely. His only posts of the sort have been to criticize Ace as far as I remember. On top of that, he hasn't even voted once.

I need to see what he said about the various plans that were proposed regarding the DTs. If he is the Vet and he kept it secret all this time....why?

Finally I've been suspicious of him ever since he wrote this one post begging the mafia not to kill him early this game. What was the point of that? He's basically saying for the mafia not to kill him so he'll have time to rape their faces. Why say this at all? It seemed like his own excuse as to why the mafia wouldn't kill him, so that he can explain why he's still in the game for so long....other than if he's mafia.

Anyway, that's the general idea. I can be more specific when I find quotes to back up what I'm saying.

Do you know how to look at one user's posts? I can't seem to do that, and I'm not excited about going through the whole thread again.

------------------------------------ {INF}
It looks like we see mostly eye to eye.

Here is a short PM convo I had with L, before Ace roleclaimed DT. I was suspicious of him before the roleclaim. I think a lot of people were. It's L's response that is interesting though (my message, which comes first, is on the bottom):




As in his posts, he alludes to having ideas about certain people being mafia. Nothing ever came from it in the thread though. I missed that post of him begging... I'll have to go find it. Also the post where he says he sucks at blue finding and is good at clues - I don't remember L really doing any heavy clue analysis at all in other games.

The Ace criticism is also a good cause for suspicion. While Shikyo was way over the top, L was more subtle about it. Really anyone who vocally opposed Ace needs to be watched carefully. Personally I'm of the mind that Shikyo is green. Most suspicious to me are L and RoL.

I don't think we can click on a user and view their posts unless you're a mod. Usually to do that I just click the "all" button and then ctrl+f the username

-----------------------------------------
Original Message: {SCAMP}
You saying you missed the post got me motivated to find it. Then I skimmed the rest of the thread. Here's what I found. Remember I was just skimming for L's posts.

The post I referred to is on page 22. Perhaps it is not as bad as I made it out to be. But it's still there, it's still begging IMO, and it's still what brought my attention to him in the first place.

He mentions not dying on day 1-2 again on page 26, also as leverage to an opinion.

On page 37 Amber[Light] had "everyone should lynch ACE today" in bold letters. He gives his reasoning, and part of it is info on players that we get once Ace got lynched. Well, Ace got lynched. I don't think he ever went back to that reasoning. Curious. (Plus, Ace is never wrong, right? Strike two on Amber.)

And on page 47 L mentions again how happy he is to be alive.


In further news, I'm also quite suspicious of SugiuraMidori. Something about his posts and lists while I was skimming just doesn't sit right. But maybe that was just because I was skimming.

Anyway that means, in my opinion, I'm suspicious of L, Amber, RoL, and Sugiura.

----------------------------------{INF}
I'll check it out. Your suspicions pretty much coincide with mine. Not sure about Sugiara right now, I havent been paying a lot of attention to her right now.

Check out the vote thread too. Votes for Chezinu and Vivi57 with little discussion in the actual thread.

Here is my good reason to believe that L is lying. I'm pretty sure I can trust you. You seem to be green, yes? If you are mafia, feel free to discard this message and not read it

I am the paramedic. I did, in fact, protect L last night after Incognito posted a 'medic list' of L and SugiaraMidori.

However (and this is a BIG however!!!) I received no PM saying that I made a save. If you read the rules page, it says that the medic gets a PM when he makes a save, along with whoever he protected. Needless to say, I also didn't contact L at all after that PM i showed you, so I am not the medic he's talking about in his posts.

There's a few things we can say are possible:

1. There's another medic and he also protected L, but sent in his PM before me so that my protection didn't matter. Think about the odds of this though. Not to mention the imbalance of 2 medics in a 21 person, mafia 2kp game. It's very unlikely, in my opinion.

2. Ver or Qatol forgot to PM me. It's possible, and I would give them the benefit of the doubt in that they would PM me if I was supposed to get a PM. On top of this L says he was talking with his medic friend after the save. I didn't message him at all.

3. L is lying. He is not the vet and was not protected, and not hit at all. If this is the case we have to act and get him lynched ASAP.

RoL's reaction to your posts about how Incog must have been targeted by the mafia, based on the Day post, are very telling if option 3 is what's happening here. He could just be missing the obvious, but his past behavior leads me to think he is mafia trying to indirectly back up L's story by pretending there is the possibility of multiple kill patterns. But really, we know L could have only either been hit by the mad hatter bomb or the vig. Ignoring the fact that I'm the medic and more than 1 medic is unlikely, there probably isn't a vig and DF never gave any indication of suspecting L in her posts.

What do you make of this? Am I wrong about options 1 or 2? I think 3 is our situation here. If it is, I have to act (roleclaim?)

I'm going to bed, will see what else develops in the morning

i just hope i'm right and that you're town aligned cause this is a risky play :s

-----------------------------------------{SCAMP}
Original Message
Yeah the thing about Sugiara isn't really well fleshed-out yet. It's just a hunch and I need to find some good evidence for it. I also had a hunch on Incognito as I was suspect of a few of his posts and I was really curious as to why he put L on his two-person medic list. But clearly that was wrong.

If what you're saying is true (and unless you really like making up elaborate stories over PMs, I have no reason to believe it's not) then it definitely confirms my suspicions on L. Hopefully we can put the case against him without having to reveal your role. I'm just a townie as you've guessed. I'd be more than happy to stick my neck out on the line for this as if I am killed it's not nearly as big of a loss compared to you dying.

In fact, I could just say that I know who the medic is and it confirms that L is lying. This probably won't work as I don't think people have reason to trust me, nor would they believe that the medic would have reason to reveal to me.

I am curious as to the votes against Chezinu, especially considering the abstaining that's been going on for the last two votes. But Sugiara mentioned something about a circle with Chez and Shikyo. There should be some defending going on soon.

This is risky for me too. However, if you are actually mafia, I'd have to say that your plan is genius.

But yeah, I'd have to say that option three is the one we're looking at. It's a good plan by L if this is the case. Of course the medic isn't going to want to be revealed. If there are two medics, then they aren't going to be in contact with each other. If there's only one medic, he's got to suspect a second one. There apparently is no veteran, and if a second one claims then they out him in exchange for L's life, not to mention extra chaos as no one will be sure of what's going on.

Gonna finish watching Flash play then go to sleep too. It will be interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow.

---------------------------- {INF}
Hm yeah. If you roleclaimed as medic with the same story, I'd be at less of a risk and we'd accomplish the same thing. It's up to you, if you want to do this then i think it's a good idea. I can back you up in the thread since I already have posted about L possibly lying

I don't think saying "I know the medic" would work for the same reasons you stated. I revealed to you because i was pretty sure you were green, 2 heads are better than 1, and if need be a green pretending to be the medic is better than outing the medic. tho i do feel kinda selfish having someone else sacrifice themselves like that lol

anyway the sooner we act the better. people in the thread are arguing about Chezinu and other junk, meanwhile we've got a pretty good case here that wins if L is mafia. given his behavior + this lie, we have a solid lynch as long as enough people switch their vote. that's the part that worries me the most. i have lab but will be back around 4EST, if you want to make the roleclaim i think it's fine (just gotta be persuasive about it, otherwise nobody pays attention... sad but true).

To: Scamp
are there any reasons L could be town but lying? like say he is actually the vet, but made up the medic part/getting hit? i'm just trying to cover all the possibilities here in figuring out his motives. i.e maybe he is just trying to draw mafia hits

----------------------------------------- {From Scamp}
Well that would be the same reasons L would be mafia and lying...to get the town to trust him further. It seems really unlikely that he would want to draw mafia hits given his insistence that he doesn't want to die early this game. I'm going to start the case against him now and see where it goes.

To: Scamp
we have 3 votes on L right now (you, BC, me)

nobody in the thread has paid too much mind yet. if one of us claims i'm worried that it puts the person in danger and we might not get enough votes to make it matter

what do you make of L's recent PM transcript ?

1 sign - he left out the most recent message(s), if it is real, because the first message does not say original message above it
-----------------------------------------{From: Scamp}
I think my thoughts are pretty clear in the thread. I dunno about claiming for exactly the reasons you just mentioned. We'll have to see where this goes when the traffic picks up.

The hours where most people seem to start posting is about four/five hours before what the deadline will be. This makes for quite an uneasy situation, but it is what it is.

{To: Scamp}
last night i protected Suguira, and again received no PM

in the thread she goes "thanks medic!" and says how the mafia must be after her

i checked with Qatol who confirmed with me that i did not make a save last night:

[PM from Qatol was here, it's not important]

What do you think about the possibility of 2 medics?

To me, it simply doesn't seem realistic...

something i'm going to keep in mind when she posts her DT results (she never even has posted who he checked and what they flipped yet).

-----------------------------------------
{From: Scamp}
I'll keep it in mind. I'm also curious as to why the mafia haven't given up yet. There's got to be something about it, but I don't know yet.