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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 716

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.


If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
September 21 2018 17:02 GMT
#14301
--- Nuked ---
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-21 17:03:55
September 21 2018 17:02 GMT
#14302
Zip guns are dangerous for the user and everyone else around that user. Which is why they are illegal to make. Plastic zip guns are just as bad, but lack the requirements for machining tools to make. Guns are hard to make.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
September 21 2018 17:03 GMT
#14303
All this against the backdrop of the NRA conveniently ignoring the first part of the second amendment about a well regulated militia.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-21 17:09:20
September 21 2018 17:08 GMT
#14304
Some known kidnapping suspect got into a gun fight with police last night about 15 mins from my neighborhood. He had an AK-47 with him, and decided to go head to head with the police last night, granted this can happen anywhere, but there were also three mass shootings yesterday across the country... This is only happening more and more every passing day with how much the news propagate this divide.

The video in the link is quite loud, and a lot of gun fire, it literally sounds like a war zone for the time being.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article218773495.html

A man who was at the center of an armed kidnapping FBI case was shot and killed late Thursday by police after he fired at several officers with an assault rifle, police said.

Rapid gunfire erupted near Northwest 72nd Avenue and Seventh Street — just blocks away from Miami International Airport. Police officials said City of Miami police and Miami-Dade police were working with the FBI in an ongoing kidnapping case when the shooting happened.

“The FBI was investigating a fugitive case. The suspect of this investigation fled the scene. And he was armed,” FBI spokesman Brian Waterman told reporters early Friday. “He [the suspect] was involved in a hate crime investigation.”
Life?
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-21 17:09:56
September 21 2018 17:09 GMT
#14305
On September 22 2018 02:03 ticklishmusic wrote:
All this against the backdrop of the NRA conveniently ignoring the first part of the second amendment about a well regulated militia.


Well to be fair Scalia and Co. ignored it too so it's not like they don't have legal cover here.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
September 21 2018 17:17 GMT
#14306
On September 22 2018 02:08 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Some known kidnapping suspect got into a gun fight with police last night about 15 mins from my neighborhood. He had an AK-47 with him, and decided to go head to head with the police last night, granted this can happen anywhere, but there were also three mass shootings yesterday across the country... This is only happening more and more every passing day with how much the news propagate this divide.

The video in the link is quite loud, and a lot of gun fire, it literally sounds like a war zone for the time being.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article218773495.html

Show nested quote +
A man who was at the center of an armed kidnapping FBI case was shot and killed late Thursday by police after he fired at several officers with an assault rifle, police said.

Rapid gunfire erupted near Northwest 72nd Avenue and Seventh Street — just blocks away from Miami International Airport. Police officials said City of Miami police and Miami-Dade police were working with the FBI in an ongoing kidnapping case when the shooting happened.

“The FBI was investigating a fugitive case. The suspect of this investigation fled the scene. And he was armed,” FBI spokesman Brian Waterman told reporters early Friday. “He [the suspect] was involved in a hate crime investigation.”

Well that is terrifying, glad it was 15 minutes away and not in your neighborhood.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
September 21 2018 17:29 GMT
#14307
On September 21 2018 20:05 Grumbels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2018 08:13 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 21 2018 05:59 Grumbels wrote:
On September 21 2018 05:32 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 20 2018 18:32 Grumbels wrote:
On September 20 2018 14:34 schaf wrote:
Wouldn't it be favourable to build a broad political coalition against the Venezuelan government? Military action will not lead to a positive outcome in my opinion but showing the people of that country that not only evil America but in fact Europe, Asia and their neighbouring countries have the same stance on Maduro should erode his support.

And as to the prime directive: it's not an alien civilisation contacted for the first time. That should be obvious.

It also doesn't apply to the situation because the US government (especially under Trump) is clearly not well intentioned.

By the way, I found this article the other day which claims that the US and Saudis collaborated to flood the oil market in order to "crash" the Russian and Iranian economies. One of the results was the collapse of the Venezuelan economy, since 96% of its exports consists of oil.

I was reading about US-Venezuela relations and supposedly they're not quite so bad as they're sometimes claimed to be. 40% of its oil is exported to the US. And more of its population would view the US favorably than not. There wasn't anything comparable to the economic embargo against Cuba. I would speculate this is related to oil imports and the danger of disrupting this relationship. Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves.

But the relationship has drastically worsened since the Maduro presidency. There have been new sanctions, and there has been talk of invasion. John Bolton joined the administration and he is an advocate of some sort of regime change. And the US has become drastically less dependent on Venezuelan oil imports.

I wouldn't buy the 'oil conspiracy' line. US production increased in response to new technology and high prices (remember $100+ oil?). These are private producers too, so I'm not sure how the US gov would be pushing production higher anyways.

It's also not just price that hurt Venezuela. PDVSA was terribly managed by Chavez / Maduro. Oil output fell from something like 2.5M barrels per day to sub 2M. So they got whacked twice - both price and volume. Don't even get me started on what that would mean for margins.

It’s about the Saudis increasing production, not the USA.

But it's the US that's been increasing production...

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/12/investing/us-oil-production-russia-saudi-arabia/index.html

For the first time since 1973, the United States is the world's largest producer of crude oil, according to preliminary estimates published on Wednesday by the Energy Department.
...
The EIA expects US oil production to stay ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia through 2019.


Saudi oil production has been relatively stable over the past few decades.

It's not about long-term production, it's about tactically flooding the market with cheap oil in order to drive up or drive down the oil price for some financial or geo-political purpose.

+ Show Spoiler [oil prices] +

[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Saudi production] +

[image loading]


I kind of doubt a 5% bump in Saudi supply is going to cause prices to drop 50% on its own. They are far from the only supplier in the world, US is a bit bigger currently, and US wasn't coordinated with their prod changes.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-21 18:27:57
September 21 2018 18:27 GMT
#14308
Someone at the White House leaked this to the Times has a pretty clear mission. I doubt it would surprise anyone that the 25th amendment was discussed, but the way this is framed makes it seem like Rosenstein was gunning for Trump from day one. More fuel for the “deep state” fire and the conspiracy theories. But Trump would need to fire Sessions before he could get rid of Rosenstein. And for a lot of Republicans in the senate, that would be the last straw.

I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13924 Posts
September 21 2018 18:31 GMT
#14309
On September 22 2018 02:03 ticklishmusic wrote:
All this against the backdrop of the NRA conveniently ignoring the first part of the second amendment about a well regulated militia.

About how the well regulated militia shouldn't infringe on peoples right to bear arms? They ignore that part they just understand how a comma works.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18825 Posts
September 21 2018 18:34 GMT
#14310
On September 22 2018 03:27 Plansix wrote:
Someone at the White House leaked this to the Times has a pretty clear mission. I doubt it would surprise anyone that the 25th amendment was discussed, but the way this is framed makes it seem like Rosenstein was gunning for Trump from day one. More fuel for the “deep state” fire and the conspiracy theories. But Trump would need to fire Sessions before he could get rid of Rosenstein. And for a lot of Republicans in the senate, that would be the last straw.

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1043198104508542976

My unsubstantiated hot-take on this is that Stephen Miller is the leaker and he's been in constant contact with Bannon and has been doing his bidding all along.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15686 Posts
September 21 2018 18:37 GMT
#14311
On September 22 2018 03:27 Plansix wrote:
Someone at the White House leaked this to the Times has a pretty clear mission. I doubt it would surprise anyone that the 25th amendment was discussed, but the way this is framed makes it seem like Rosenstein was gunning for Trump from day one. More fuel for the “deep state” fire and the conspiracy theories. But Trump would need to fire Sessions before he could get rid of Rosenstein. And for a lot of Republicans in the senate, that would be the last straw.

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1043198104508542976


Story being run on Friday makes me think tomorrow is gonna be the day.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
September 21 2018 18:39 GMT
#14312
On September 22 2018 03:31 Sermokala wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2018 02:03 ticklishmusic wrote:
All this against the backdrop of the NRA conveniently ignoring the first part of the second amendment about a well regulated militia.

About how the well regulated militia shouldn't infringe on peoples right to bear arms? They ignore that part they just understand how a comma works.

The NRA has a firm grasp on a lot of Russian and gun manufacture’s money, so I doubt their policies are based on a firm understanding of grammar.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-21 18:49:26
September 21 2018 18:42 GMT
#14313
On September 22 2018 03:34 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2018 03:27 Plansix wrote:
Someone at the White House leaked this to the Times has a pretty clear mission. I doubt it would surprise anyone that the 25th amendment was discussed, but the way this is framed makes it seem like Rosenstein was gunning for Trump from day one. More fuel for the “deep state” fire and the conspiracy theories. But Trump would need to fire Sessions before he could get rid of Rosenstein. And for a lot of Republicans in the senate, that would be the last straw.

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1043198104508542976

My unsubstantiated hot-take on this is that Stephen Miller is the leaker and he's been in constant contact with Bannon and has been doing his bidding all along.

Seems legit. This entire article reeks of desperation. And right after Trump walked back declassifying the FISA warrant documents for Carter Page, because the justice department finally convinced Trump it was going to get a source killed.

Edit: Shit, McCabe didn't deny the details of the story. He is playing with fire.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-21 18:43:47
September 21 2018 18:43 GMT
#14314
On September 22 2018 03:37 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2018 03:27 Plansix wrote:
Someone at the White House leaked this to the Times has a pretty clear mission. I doubt it would surprise anyone that the 25th amendment was discussed, but the way this is framed makes it seem like Rosenstein was gunning for Trump from day one. More fuel for the “deep state” fire and the conspiracy theories. But Trump would need to fire Sessions before he could get rid of Rosenstein. And for a lot of Republicans in the senate, that would be the last straw.

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1043198104508542976


Story being run on Friday makes me think tomorrow is gonna be the day.


Yep. I think there is another Saturday Night Massacre coming, maybe as soon as tomorrow. It has the extra benefit of distracting from the Kavanaugh mess. I hope I'm wrong.
Ayaz2810
Profile Joined September 2011
United States2763 Posts
September 21 2018 20:06 GMT
#14315
On September 22 2018 03:43 On_Slaught wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2018 03:37 Mohdoo wrote:
On September 22 2018 03:27 Plansix wrote:
Someone at the White House leaked this to the Times has a pretty clear mission. I doubt it would surprise anyone that the 25th amendment was discussed, but the way this is framed makes it seem like Rosenstein was gunning for Trump from day one. More fuel for the “deep state” fire and the conspiracy theories. But Trump would need to fire Sessions before he could get rid of Rosenstein. And for a lot of Republicans in the senate, that would be the last straw.

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1043198104508542976


Story being run on Friday makes me think tomorrow is gonna be the day.


Yep. I think there is another Saturday Night Massacre coming, maybe as soon as tomorrow. It has the extra benefit of distracting from the Kavanaugh mess. I hope I'm wrong.


I'm pretty sure Trump is going to fire Rosenstein tonight. It's Friday which is when they drop the biggest bomb, and Sean Hannity even said Trump is going to fire Mueller after the hurricane passed. This smells like a leak, and shitloads of people are already gearing up to protest if/when it happens. We might be at the point where Trump realizes he's fucked and he will do anything he can to stop it. Legitimately kind of nervous now.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/sep/12/sean-hannity-expects-donald-trump-fire-robert-muel/

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/us/politics/rod-rosenstein-wear-wire-25th-amendment.html
Vrtra Vanquisher/Tiamat Trouncer/World Serpent Slayer
Tachion
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Canada8573 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-21 20:10:30
September 21 2018 20:10 GMT
#14316
While Bannon was still in the administration he reportedly warned Trump about the possibility of being removed with the 25th amendment. The infamous NY Times resistance op-ed mentioned the possibilities of the 25th. Rosenstein seems to have floated the idea of it. You got White House officials contacting psychiatrists out of worry to speak with congress about his mental fitness. Seems like a lot of high ranking people in the Trump admin are concerned that he is mentally unfit for the office. If we've already heard this much about it, the stories that are going to come out about this in another 20 years are going to be absolutely nuts.
i was driving down the road this november eve and spotted a hitchhiker walking down the street. i pulled over and saw that it was only a tree. i uprooted it and put it in my trunk. do trees like marshmallow peeps? cause that's all i have and will have.
Grumbels
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Netherlands7031 Posts
September 21 2018 20:12 GMT
#14317
On September 22 2018 02:29 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2018 20:05 Grumbels wrote:
On September 21 2018 08:13 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 21 2018 05:59 Grumbels wrote:
On September 21 2018 05:32 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 20 2018 18:32 Grumbels wrote:
On September 20 2018 14:34 schaf wrote:
Wouldn't it be favourable to build a broad political coalition against the Venezuelan government? Military action will not lead to a positive outcome in my opinion but showing the people of that country that not only evil America but in fact Europe, Asia and their neighbouring countries have the same stance on Maduro should erode his support.

And as to the prime directive: it's not an alien civilisation contacted for the first time. That should be obvious.

It also doesn't apply to the situation because the US government (especially under Trump) is clearly not well intentioned.

By the way, I found this article the other day which claims that the US and Saudis collaborated to flood the oil market in order to "crash" the Russian and Iranian economies. One of the results was the collapse of the Venezuelan economy, since 96% of its exports consists of oil.

I was reading about US-Venezuela relations and supposedly they're not quite so bad as they're sometimes claimed to be. 40% of its oil is exported to the US. And more of its population would view the US favorably than not. There wasn't anything comparable to the economic embargo against Cuba. I would speculate this is related to oil imports and the danger of disrupting this relationship. Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves.

But the relationship has drastically worsened since the Maduro presidency. There have been new sanctions, and there has been talk of invasion. John Bolton joined the administration and he is an advocate of some sort of regime change. And the US has become drastically less dependent on Venezuelan oil imports.

I wouldn't buy the 'oil conspiracy' line. US production increased in response to new technology and high prices (remember $100+ oil?). These are private producers too, so I'm not sure how the US gov would be pushing production higher anyways.

It's also not just price that hurt Venezuela. PDVSA was terribly managed by Chavez / Maduro. Oil output fell from something like 2.5M barrels per day to sub 2M. So they got whacked twice - both price and volume. Don't even get me started on what that would mean for margins.

It’s about the Saudis increasing production, not the USA.

But it's the US that's been increasing production...

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/12/investing/us-oil-production-russia-saudi-arabia/index.html

For the first time since 1973, the United States is the world's largest producer of crude oil, according to preliminary estimates published on Wednesday by the Energy Department.
...
The EIA expects US oil production to stay ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia through 2019.


Saudi oil production has been relatively stable over the past few decades.

It's not about long-term production, it's about tactically flooding the market with cheap oil in order to drive up or drive down the oil price for some financial or geo-political purpose.

+ Show Spoiler [oil prices] +

[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Saudi production] +

[image loading]


I kind of doubt a 5% bump in Saudi supply is going to cause prices to drop 50% on its own. They are far from the only supplier in the world, US is a bit bigger currently, and US wasn't coordinated with their prod changes.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]



Well, I’m not an oil trader, I don’t know why the price went down. It just did and I would like to know why given the effect on the economy. The few articles I read about it said it had to do with increased production by the Saudis and the US, but there is probably more behind it, like financial manipulation of some sort.

Anyway, the point was that Venezuela’s economy crashed seemingly because of its reliance on oil.
Well, now I tell you, I never seen good come o' goodness yet. Him as strikes first is my fancy; dead men don't bite; them's my views--amen, so be it.
Ayaz2810
Profile Joined September 2011
United States2763 Posts
September 21 2018 20:12 GMT
#14318
I also think that Trump ordering the declassification of documents and then retracting the order is telling. I don't think he initially knew what was even in them, but when his allies took a look at them they panicked. I think he got a bunch of phone calls that were something like "bro, not only do these documents not help you if made public, but we think they show that you are in very big trouble". Maybe I'm wrong, but that paired with the Rosenstein thing, Manafort, and Cohen makes me think it may be sinking in that he is in very deep shit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-walks-back-his-plan-to-declassify-russia-probe-documents/2018/09/21/79d95f94-bdac-11e8-8792-78719177250f_story.html?utm_term=.a26ee75e9132
Vrtra Vanquisher/Tiamat Trouncer/World Serpent Slayer
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15686 Posts
September 21 2018 20:14 GMT
#14319
On September 22 2018 05:06 Ayaz2810 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2018 03:43 On_Slaught wrote:
On September 22 2018 03:37 Mohdoo wrote:
On September 22 2018 03:27 Plansix wrote:
Someone at the White House leaked this to the Times has a pretty clear mission. I doubt it would surprise anyone that the 25th amendment was discussed, but the way this is framed makes it seem like Rosenstein was gunning for Trump from day one. More fuel for the “deep state” fire and the conspiracy theories. But Trump would need to fire Sessions before he could get rid of Rosenstein. And for a lot of Republicans in the senate, that would be the last straw.

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1043198104508542976


Story being run on Friday makes me think tomorrow is gonna be the day.


Yep. I think there is another Saturday Night Massacre coming, maybe as soon as tomorrow. It has the extra benefit of distracting from the Kavanaugh mess. I hope I'm wrong.


I'm pretty sure Trump is going to fire Rosenstein tonight. It's Friday which is when they drop the biggest bomb, and Sean Hannity even said Trump is going to fire Mueller after the hurricane passed. This smells like a leak, and shitloads of people are already gearing up to protest if/when it happens. We might be at the point where Trump realizes he's fucked and he will do anything he can to stop it. Legitimately kind of nervous now.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/sep/12/sean-hannity-expects-donald-trump-fire-robert-muel/

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/us/politics/rod-rosenstein-wear-wire-25th-amendment.html


Friendly reminder to everyone, as soon as Rosenstein is fired:

https://act.moveon.org/event/mueller-firing-rapid-response-events/search/

This is 100% the pre-firing story so Trump can be like "THEY WERE TRYING TO FUCKING COUP ME"
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-21 20:20:16
September 21 2018 20:17 GMT
#14320
An interesting theory out there is that this isnt from somebody like Miller but rather it is a trap. Somebody is trying to force Trumps hand on the idea that him firing Rosenstein would absolutely devastate the Republican ticket this Nov.

If Rosenstein lasts the weekend it's likely because Trump's aides and allies begged him not to.
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