US Politics Mega-thread

US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5903

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KwarK

United States44230 Posts

1 hour ago

#118041

On August 11 2026 15:18 RvB wrote:

Show nested quote +

On August 11 2026 04:46 KwarK wrote:

On August 11 2026 03:31 RvB wrote:

On August 11 2026 02:50 KwarK wrote:

On August 11 2026 02:16 RvB wrote:

On August 11 2026 01:54 KwarK wrote:

On August 10 2026 23:12 oBlade wrote:

On August 10 2026 22:34 Billyboy wrote:

On August 10 2026 18:58 oBlade wrote:

On August 10 2026 09:10 Billyboy wrote:
I wonder if Republicans are getting tired of winning so hard yet,

[quote]

Imagine still believing that Trump was the better choice. Has anyone ever lost a way harder that they started and had every advantage? It’s actually wild.

Oh wow well if Tehran is "demanding" it that's pretty bad since if Tehran demands something everyone just has to do it, I mean it's Tehran after all. And when their demands aren't met, what exactly will happen?

I would presume the US will keep spending bombs and interceptors plus the billions on force posturing they are unwilling to use until the economic and political pressure is too much for Donnie and he capitulates and declares victory. And mush brains like you will cheer for him.

Your guess?

You just told me Iran is demanding the US end its attacks on Iran, and that if the US doesn't, then the US will use bombs on Iran. That's definitionally what would happen. I already got that part.

Iran has nothing attached to these demands? "Meet our demands by... never... or else we will do... nothing." What remaining card are they going to play and why were they so generous as to not play it in the last 6 months?

Firstly, you don’t believe in Iran. Your stance is that the old nation no longer exists post regime change.

Secondly, the closed strait is a slow escalating burn. They don’t need a new card, the closure does nothing for a while due to the large stockpiles but as those stockpiles are eroded the releases slow and the damage escalates. The assertion that pressure won’t increase is nonsense, it’s constantly increasing.

More time also gives markets more time to adjust. The oil price is not consistent with a slow escalating burn. From the start of the war until the second half of May the price was consistently close to 100 dollars a barrel. It has not breached 90 dollars since even though inventories are much lower right now.

Look at the US SPR graph if you want to see why it went down in May. The price goes up when releases slow and goes down when they increase.

If we imagine a scenario where each week 2% of whatever remains is released then we would see what you expect, a slow rise. But that’s not how the releases have been done.

My argument was that the pressure increases over time as stocks are drawn down, not necessarily the price. Let's say tomorrow Trump went crazy and decided to sell from the SPR to any buyer for $50/barrel. The price would sharply drop but the pressure would sharply increase as the timeline on the impending emergency changed. You can't equate oil price to pressure 1:1.

Take a look at how large oil markets are and compare it to the strategic reserves. They're not nearly enough to cause price movements like that for any significant amount of time. It helps at the margin and can prevent large price spikes. An increase in production by other producers and a very large reduction in demand are much bigger factors.

I suggest you do exactly that. We're talking about a net deficit of about 13m barrel/day through Hormuz after pipelines. And we're talking about stockpiles of over 2,000m barrels. China alone has 1,400m barrels. Once you add marginal production onlined/upscaled after the price hikes the stockpiles are more than sufficient for the time period you're saying they wouldn't be.

Weird that you would ask me to take a look at the numbers when they so utterly disprove your point.

That's almost all China. They've released 150 million barrels. The IEA has released 420 million barrels since March. That's around 4.75 million barrels a day in total. That's still a large gap left. I've looked at the SPR graph as you suggested and it's basically a straight line down. You're going to have to explain how the releases started in March, prices only went down in the second half of May, and they're not approaching earlier price levels when stocks are much lower and the release of barrels from the reserves is nearing its end.

The US didn’t do SPR releases in March.

No releases March.
21m barrels April.
43m barrels May.

That’s why I’m telling you to look at the data instead of just assuming it was even releases starting with the start of the war.

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