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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 7103

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-11 18:19:42
March 11 2017 18:18 GMT
#142041
Right now I'm trying to imagine how the rest of the world would react if Trump wins again.

Bonus points if he wins again with a massive electoral-popular split.

Four more years of daily diplomatic scuffles between the US and any other country.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1352 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-11 20:46:47
March 11 2017 19:57 GMT
#142042
would trump even want a 2nd term?

he is not the youngest anymore and might also want enjoy time with his family a bit more. He will be president trump for the rest of his lifetime already.

first female president of the usa:

a:oprah
b:ivanka trump
c:someone else
ChristianS
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3188 Posts
March 11 2017 20:34 GMT
#142043
On March 12 2017 04:57 pmh wrote:
would trump even want a 2nd term?

he is not the youngest anymore and might also want enjoy time with his family a bit more. He will be president trump for the rest of his lifetime already.

He filed his candidacy virtually immediately after inauguration. Which is both highly unusual and means he can already start collecting campaign donations.
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -Robert J. Hanlon
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
March 11 2017 20:38 GMT
#142044
Hopefully someone better than Hillary Clinton is put up by the Democrats so as to not lose twice to a delusional clown.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23250 Posts
March 11 2017 20:47 GMT
#142045
On March 12 2017 05:38 LegalLord wrote:
Hopefully someone better than Hillary Clinton is put up by the Democrats so as to not lose twice to a delusional clown.

Not if Democrats like Peter Daou get their way. I know there will be a wing of Democrats calling for her to run, it will boil down to whether some of her supporters and/or she will tell them "no, that's a terrible idea".
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-11 20:49:33
March 11 2017 20:48 GMT
#142046
On March 12 2017 05:38 LegalLord wrote:
Hopefully someone better than Hillary Clinton is put up by the Democrats so as to not lose twice to a delusional clown.

Changes in structural factors (i.e. stuff like incumbent position tends to get worse) will likely be sufficient to prevent Trump from winning.
if trump lasts that long, and doesn't lose the primary.
too early to tell who the dems will run, as most of the old guard is really getting too old.

I don't think there's any other candidates like hillary in the party atm (i.e. people with lots of establishment strength but terrible public charisma); at least none with enough clout to win.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28674 Posts
March 11 2017 20:50 GMT
#142047
Aren't incumbents considered 'structurally favored' in the US?
Moderator
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-11 20:57:03
March 11 2017 20:54 GMT
#142048
it certainly looks like one re-election seems to be popular while a party rarely produces three presidents in a row. The last two times this happened were Bush and Roosevelt right? only twice in 120 years.

Probably another thing to keep in mind when evaluating the Clinton loss.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
March 11 2017 20:56 GMT
#142049
On March 12 2017 05:50 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Aren't incumbents considered 'structurally favored' in the US?

Yes but there is precedent for a significant primary challenge to the incumbent president.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
March 11 2017 20:58 GMT
#142050
On March 12 2017 05:50 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Aren't incumbents considered 'structurally favored' in the US?

at lower levels, yes; at the presidential level it's far weaker, and presidential approval ratings tend to get worse over time, adn the president's party tends to lose seats in congress.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
March 11 2017 22:24 GMT
#142051
On March 12 2017 05:58 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 12 2017 05:50 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Aren't incumbents considered 'structurally favored' in the US?

at lower levels, yes; at the presidential level it's far weaker, and presidential approval ratings tend to get worse over time, adn the president's party tends to lose seats in congress.


Well red states are starting to lose their state senate seats already to democrats.
Life?
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
March 12 2017 00:27 GMT
#142052
On March 12 2017 01:09 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2017 11:14 a_flayer wrote:
So far, I still think that there are no impeachable or otherwise excessively criminal ties to Russia when it comes to Trump or the people he surrounds himself with. There might be some monetary connections that have little to do with his presidency, but I doubt he'll be impeached over that if there are those kind of ties.

When it comes to communicating with them, I don't think Flynn was fired for Russian connections (but rather the lack of communication between him and other WH officials), and neither will Sessions. The Sessions thing was especially ridiculous. Those accusations read to me as: "Russian ambassador to the US meets with US politicians". Big fucking deal. He may have accidentally sort of lied in that way, but to me it hardly seemed like it was his intention to cover up anything.

If you genuinely believe there was a deliberate collaboration between Putin and Trump to get him into the White House I think you're just caught up in a Russophobic media frenzy.

They're putting all their chips on Russia and they'll have a big payout if, against all odds, there was criminal collusion or pay-to-hack. But like Rolling Stone laid out, if nothing turns up they lose hard. The thing they have so little of right now is credibility capital.


The idea that you would mention "credibility capital" without ever noting the (complete lack of) credibility of trump's claims is pretty astounding.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
March 12 2017 00:35 GMT
#142053
On March 12 2017 09:27 Doodsmack wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 12 2017 01:09 Danglars wrote:
On March 11 2017 11:14 a_flayer wrote:
So far, I still think that there are no impeachable or otherwise excessively criminal ties to Russia when it comes to Trump or the people he surrounds himself with. There might be some monetary connections that have little to do with his presidency, but I doubt he'll be impeached over that if there are those kind of ties.

When it comes to communicating with them, I don't think Flynn was fired for Russian connections (but rather the lack of communication between him and other WH officials), and neither will Sessions. The Sessions thing was especially ridiculous. Those accusations read to me as: "Russian ambassador to the US meets with US politicians". Big fucking deal. He may have accidentally sort of lied in that way, but to me it hardly seemed like it was his intention to cover up anything.

If you genuinely believe there was a deliberate collaboration between Putin and Trump to get him into the White House I think you're just caught up in a Russophobic media frenzy.

They're putting all their chips on Russia and they'll have a big payout if, against all odds, there was criminal collusion or pay-to-hack. But like Rolling Stone laid out, if nothing turns up they lose hard. The thing they have so little of right now is credibility capital.


The idea that you would mention "credibility capital" without ever noting the (complete lack of) credibility of trump's claims is pretty astounding.

Seeing you finally accept that the a_flayer has it right here is heartening. Thank you. Maybe we won't need to restate the reasons why this half of the equation is the truth in the future.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
March 12 2017 01:02 GMT
#142054
I didn't say anything about whether a_flayer has it right but you keep going on about trump and the truth. There's not much of a relationship between the two. He's mostly just a con.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
March 12 2017 01:08 GMT
#142055
On March 12 2017 10:02 Doodsmack wrote:
I didn't say anything about whether a_flayer has it right but you keep going on about trump and the truth. There's not much of a relationship between the two. He's mostly just a con.

Brother, I mentioned the media twice and specifically without Trump, and both times you brought up Trump. So you tell me who keeps going on and on about Trump. You're really just projecting the insecurities you wish everybody talked about more.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23250 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-12 01:20:38
March 12 2017 01:20 GMT
#142056
Do Republicans think this is an accurate read of the healthcare debate?



(not the Obamacare part)
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
March 12 2017 01:26 GMT
#142057
On March 12 2017 10:20 GreenHorizons wrote:
Do Republicans think this is an accurate read of the healthcare debate?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/840572799202783233

(not the Obamacare part)

The current plan was not progress and Republicans are not coming together to get job done.

But Obamacare is arguably imploding and won't be getting better.

Inaccurate.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
March 12 2017 01:31 GMT
#142058
I feel like this plan passing would actually be the worst thing that could happen for the republican party.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
March 12 2017 01:38 GMT
#142059
If the Republicans pass anything resembling Obamacare it's going to be pretty much the same, but it will now be their fault.

Maybe the next Democratic leadership will push UHC since I think the "socialism" phobia has slowly receded.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
March 12 2017 02:24 GMT
#142060
On March 12 2017 10:08 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 12 2017 10:02 Doodsmack wrote:
I didn't say anything about whether a_flayer has it right but you keep going on about trump and the truth. There's not much of a relationship between the two. He's mostly just a con.

Brother, I mentioned the media twice and specifically without Trump, and both times you brought up Trump. So you tell me who keeps going on and on about Trump. You're really just projecting the insecurities you wish everybody talked about more.


It's just funny to hear a trump supporter criticize "credibility capital" without saying anything about trump.
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