On February 14 2011 01:42 Perscienter wrote:
How was the data recorded and in what intervals? Who tells me that the data is not rigged?

The editor of that posting is only talking and doesn't use any applied mathematics / statistics, nothing quantifiable. Besides it links to a site with data from 1860 to 2000.

And how is such a model assembled? Which variables are factored in?

That's exactly what I was talking about. They think of the citizen as a small child, which needs to be enlightened by stupid essays, but most people want to get to know and understand the complex connections.

Pages like that possess the quality of primary school homework. I'm not convinced.

edit: I really don't know why you talk about recent models and then post a link to a page which summarizes models which are outdated for 10 years.

That is the summary that has links to papers. Since it is a summary I have no idea why would there be much math ? How is using data from 1860-2000 wrong ?

If you want to know details about the model read the papers. Also most people are not able to understand complex connections(but in that part of your post you are just preaching).

So if when talking about physics I would argue with theory of relativity, your counterargument would be that it has no relevance today since it is 90 years old ?
EDIT: And by that I am not saying that there are no better models today, but that old model had reasonably good predictions. So if you want to argue, you have to use different argument.

Taktik

Poland680 Posts

February 13 2011 18:29 GMT

#642

I see some nice facts about Wermacht here (not taboo anymore? xd). Other world wide opinion is that Poland was defeated very easily in 1939 campaign, due to superior technology from Germans. Lets have a look at it with cold eye (?).

Air:
Germany: 2315
vs
Poland: ~400

Common knowledge that polish airplanes were destroyed on airfields is a german propaganda (the same with cavalry charges tanks etc.)

The only polish aircraft that was not inferior to german counterpart was P-37 Łoś bomber. All the fighters were outdated. Another interesting fact is that about 40% of our planes were shoot down by our not fully established and organized anti-air batteries. (o,O)
Luftwaffe after a week of air fighting was free to bomb our mobilization camps (about 30% of infantry were still unmobilized), that is the one of reasons why polish casualities were so much higher. So yes in Air Germans had superior technology and numbers
advantage ( 5,7 to 1 )

Armor:
Germany: 2750
vs
Poland: 880 (~140 7-TP)

Most of the polish armored cars were not inferior to german ones. The fact is if you compare the tanks (not tankettes) the polish one 7-TP was far superior to german counterparts Panzer I and Panzer II. 7-TP was the first tank in Europe that had diesel engine (less risk of fire from fuel) the first one was Japanese Type 89B I-Go Otsu. It was the first tank in the world to use a 360-degree periscope (the Gundlach periscope), in Wermacht tanks germans had to use holes in the armor to see anything. After the September campaign all the german and soviet tanks had Gundlach periscopes... The thing is we had only 140 of them. Still german losses in armored division were quite high (most due to Bofors 37mm anti-tank gun, and other) The technology was on our side but the numbers again were against us ( 3,1 to 1 )

Infantry:
Germany: 1,500,000 + 51,000 Slovaks, and later Soviets
vs
Poland: 950,000 (around 600,000 mobilized)

Again in training and equipment polish soldier was somewhere equal with german.
Again numbers : 2,5 to 1

In navy we had 4 destroyers, 1 minelayer and 5 submarines (we had small coast so we didnt need better navy) this however was nothing compared to Kriegsmarine.

Another thing that contributed to our defeat was our outdated tactic doctrines and war plan. Our whole plan for this war (due to numerical disadvantage) was slowly tactical retreat at the line of Wisła river and wait for British and French offensive on west front (-,-).And then..
Soviet Union backstabbed us in 17 of september, without declaration of war Soviets attacked us with ~500,000 troops, 4,500 tanks and ~3200 aircrafts. There was no army in the world that would survive such a encirclement by Third Reich and Soviet Union at the time. While some divisions were mobilizing on the east side of Wisła, and while some polish divions around Lwów started counter attack (german tanks had problem with supplies of fuel etc.), the news that struck around country just destroyed polish morale. If the Soviet Union didnt attack the war in Poland would be much longer (East side of Poland didnt have such a infrastructure for tanks, and was generaly easier to defend). Polish government never surrendered and escpaed to London.

To sum up. Poland was far poorer country than Germany and couldnt fund many plans. In 1938 year alone Germany spent more $$ on their army than Poland in between 34-39 We were defeated by numbers not by technology.

7-TP
[image loading]

8>

Sorry for long post, maybe someone will be interested in this.

DrTJEckleburg

United States1080 Posts

February 14 2011 08:49 GMT

#643

On February 14 2011 03:29 Taktik wrote:
I see some nice facts about Wermacht here (not taboo anymore? xd). Other world wide opinion is that Poland was defeated very easily in 1939 campaign, due to superior technology from Germans. Lets have a look at it with cold eye (?).

Air:
Germany: 2315
vs
Poland: ~400

Common knowledge that polish airplanes were destroyed on airfields is a german propaganda (the same with cavalry charges tanks etc.)

The only polish aircraft that was not inferior to german counterpart was P-37 Łoś bomber. All the fighters were outdated. Another interesting fact is that about 40% of our planes were shoot down by our not fully established and organized anti-air batteries. (o,O)
Luftwaffe after a week of air fighting was free to bomb our mobilization camps (about 30% of infantry were still unmobilized), that is the one of reasons why polish casualities were so much higher. So yes in Air Germans had superior technology and numbers
advantage ( 5,7 to 1 )

Armor:
Germany: 2750
vs
Poland: 880 (~140 7-TP)

Most of the polish armored cars were not inferior to german ones. The fact is if you compare the tanks (not tankettes) the polish one 7-TP was far superior to german counterparts Panzer I and Panzer II. 7-TP was the first tank in Europe that had diesel engine (less risk of fire from fuel) the first one was Japanese Type 89B I-Go Otsu. It was the first tank in the world to use a 360-degree periscope (the Gundlach periscope), in Wermacht tanks germans had to use holes in the armor to see anything. After the September campaign all the german and soviet tanks had Gundlach periscopes... The thing is we had only 140 of them. Still german losses in armored division were quite high (most due to Bofors 37mm anti-tank gun, and other) The technology was on our side but the numbers again were against us ( 3,1 to 1 )

Infantry:
Germany: 1,500,000 + 51,000 Slovaks, and later Soviets
vs
Poland: 950,000 (around 600,000 mobilized)

Again in training and equipment polish soldier was somewhere equal with german.
Again numbers : 2,5 to 1

In navy we had 4 destroyers, 1 minelayer and 5 submarines (we had small coast so we didnt need better navy) this however was nothing compared to Kriegsmarine.

Another thing that contributed to our defeat was our outdated tactic doctrines and war plan. Our whole plan for this war (due to numerical disadvantage) was slowly tactical retreat at the line of Wisła river and wait for British and French offensive on west front (-,-).And then..
Soviet Union backstabbed us in 17 of september, without declaration of war Soviets attacked us with ~500,000 troops, 4,500 tanks and ~3200 aircrafts. There was no army in the world that would survive such a encirclement by Third Reich and Soviet Union at the time. While some divisions were mobilizing on the east side of Wisła, and while some polish divions around Lwów started counter attack (german tanks had problem with supplies of fuel etc.), the news that struck around country just destroyed polish morale. If the Soviet Union didnt attack the war in Poland would be much longer (East side of Poland didnt have such a infrastructure for tanks, and was generaly easier to defend). Polish government never surrendered and escpaed to London.

To sum up. Poland was far poorer country than Germany and couldnt fund many plans. In 1938 year alone Germany spent more $$ on their army than Poland in between 34-39 We were defeated by numbers not by technology.

7-TP
[image loading]

8>

Sorry for long post, maybe someone will be interested in this.

Great post. I do remember one of my advisers always insisting that it was numerical advantage and the surrounding of Poland that lead to their defeat as opposed to Blitzkrieg and superior technology. Cool reading about the 7-TP, I remember her mentioning that too!