phelps is young, and people seem to forget this. In the next olympics he will be in what most consider swimming prime, around the age the aussie swimmer is now. I believe that will be his breakout olympics.

KOFgokuon

United States14908 Posts

August 16 2004 02:50 GMT

#65

assuming he can be mentally ready for his races (not getting spitz's record might have a toll on his readiness) he should have no problem with the 200 IM or the 200 fly, nor does any country have the manpower to beat their medlay relay...so that's 4 total. 100 fly is a tossup, it could go either way between him and crocker...i'm not sure when the event is, but if crocker doesn't get better soon that's another gold for phelps. i dunno the strength of their 4x200 team so i can't really give an opinion on the likelihood of that victory. 5 is a safe guess for the total...in otherwords the same as matt biondi when he made his run at spitz -_-

ejai63

United States2101 Posts

August 16 2004 02:51 GMT

#66

Phelps will win at least 5 gold medals. He's a lock in the 200 IM, 200 fly, and 400 IM. I think he'll win the 100 fly or the 4x200 relay as well

Bill307

Canada9103 Posts

August 16 2004 03:15 GMT

#67

It's a fact that world class sprinters and swimmers peak in their teens or early twenties (Myers, David G. "Psychology", 7th ed). So even if Phelps hasn't reached his peak yet, it is likely that he will be past his prime 4 years from now.

Renots_Potiomkin

Micronesia26 Posts

August 16 2004 03:46 GMT

#68

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Bill307

Canada9103 Posts

August 16 2004 04:07 GMT

#69

Oh wow. "Plenty of cases." There are always execptions to the average person (see http://www.santarosa.edu/~dpeterso/permanenthtml/propaganda/prop_anecdotal.htm ). I care if you can show me that the majority of people perform against what I wrote. And if you're going to do that, then you'll have to give me sources that I trust better than a psychology textbook author.

I said that it is likely that Phelps will be past his prime, and you have done nothing to counter that statement.

Renots_Potiomkin

Micronesia26 Posts

August 16 2004 04:32 GMT

#70

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KOFgokuon

United States14908 Posts

August 16 2004 04:51 GMT

#71

even with those numbers, bill's point still stands, those few are the exception to the rule, along with swimmers like dara torres. however bill, it's not like michael phelps is gonna be an old man by the time the next olympics come around. he'll be 23. that's still in the early 20's.

Renots_Potiomkin

Micronesia26 Posts

August 16 2004 04:52 GMT

#72

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Renots_Potiomkin

Micronesia26 Posts

August 16 2004 04:54 GMT

#73

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KOFgokuon

United States14908 Posts

August 16 2004 05:03 GMT

#74

that's because you're only seeing the people that actually CAN sustain such high levels at that age
unless you follow swimming a lot more closely then i do (i usually only pay attention to world championships, olympics, US nationals that kinda stuff and even then only marginally) then there are way more young guns than old timers. you never hear stories about htep eople who try to do comebacks and fail, or those who just don't make the cut.

Renots_Potiomkin

Micronesia26 Posts

August 16 2004 05:04 GMT

#75

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OhThatDang

United States4685 Posts

August 16 2004 06:39 GMT

#76

i think he can do it hes looking strong but....thorpedo you know?

ejai63

United States2101 Posts

August 16 2004 06:59 GMT

#77

On August 16 2004 13:07 Bill307 wrote:
Oh wow. "Plenty of cases." There are always execptions to the average person (see http://www.santarosa.edu/~dpeterso/permanenthtml/propaganda/prop_anecdotal.htm ). I care if you can show me that the majority of people perform against what I wrote. And if you're going to do that, then you'll have to give me sources that I trust better than a psychology textbook author.

I said that it is likely that Phelps will be past his prime, and you have done nothing to counter that statement.

That's a cheapshot, dismissing his claim with a patronizing comment and an insult at his grammar skills and that link. Then you have to go into semantics. Let's stick to swimming guys

It's basically impossible to say where Phelps will be in four years. However, most people - including his coaches, teammates, competitors, etc - say that Phelps may still be improving. Looking at the sustained excellence of most great swimming champions, I think it's a safe bet that Phelps will still be unbelievable in 2008 and beyond; whether or not he's still in his "prime" is irrelevant as long as he's the best. Being 23 is not old, even in swimming. It's entirely possible that Phelps' prime can last 4+ years as well

Renots_Potiomkin

Micronesia26 Posts

August 17 2004 08:01 GMT

#78

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KOFgokuon

United States14908 Posts

August 17 2004 08:36 GMT

#79

On August 17 2004 17:01 Renots_Potiomkin wrote:
Amazing performance by the american team on the 4*200 free. Phelps lead the team to a tight win vs the australians. Klete Keller, the last person to swam the relay did a fabulous swim. So did Thorpe, just maybe going too fast in the beginning.
So now phelps has 3 golds and 3 bronze medals, with 1 clear more gold to come (200 IM) and a decent shot on the 100 fly (and thus the relay)
6 golds + 2 bronze medals still can be achieved.
btw phelps was challenged by 2 swimmers (british parry and japanese dunno the name) on the 200 fly

he has 2 golds, 3 bronze, they didn't do the 400x100 medlay relay yet. i'm interested to see where they stick him in. aaron piersol definiteyl does back, brendan hansen does breaststrok,e jason lezak does free, but who does fly? crocker or phelps? both broke the old world record, but crocker holds it. i guess it depends on the timing of the event. if phelps wins gold in the 100 fly, then i guess he competes instead =p