          (2464) Zest  0-0  INnoVation (2636)    
-------------------------------------------------
           18.03% 2-0       0-2  33.11%          
           20.75% 2-1       1-2  28.12%          
-------------------------------------------------
               38.78%        61.22%              

Median outcome: Zest 1-2 INnoVation

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Seems reasonable to me

Olli

Austria24422 Posts

March 17 2017 17:36 GMT

#3044

Statistics are usually the worst way to evaluate how a series will go

The_Red_Viper

19533 Posts

March 17 2017 17:37 GMT

#3045

On March 18 2017 02:36 Olli wrote:
Statistics are usually the worst way to evaluate how a series will go

These stats pretty much agree with 40:60

I also disagree with you, you just need to have the "right stats". All about probabilities anyway in the end

Olli

Austria24422 Posts

March 17 2017 17:42 GMT

#3046

Stats might agree, but they never ever tell the full story, especially in a complex game.

For English football, there are statistics comparing Ander Herrera to N'Golo Kante and he's not doing poorly judging by them, yet you'd be an absolute madman to suggest that Herrera is even close to Kante. It's all about context. Statistics don't tell you playstyles, current metagame, current strategies popular on current maps, mindgames in a series, player form, playing conditions, etc.etc.etc. All they do is look at past numbers to come up with a prediction, and not only is the past the exact wrong thing to look at, numbers alone never do it in the first place.

The_Red_Viper

19533 Posts

March 17 2017 17:49 GMT

#3047

I mean all of what you listed could be covered with sophisticated stats more or less. It will never be perfect ofc, but no "simulation" is, you just can get pretty close.
I also think that even imperfect use of "objective criteria" (aka stats; ofc you need to be somewhat close to a good system) will always be better then the "eye test" simply because it's consistent and the "eye test" will always be highly subjective even if you try to be objective.
But hey that's an argument for another time and another place most likely.

I think we both still agree that Zest is the underdog but has a realistic chance of beating innovation nonetheless (and anybody who thinks Innovation is like a HUGE favorite doesn't know how probabilities work

)

Elentos

55591 Posts

March 17 2017 18:37 GMT

#3048

As long as Zest doesn't stay on adept/phoenix for 20 minutes he has a shot.

Fango

United Kingdom8987 Posts

March 17 2017 19:49 GMT

#3049

On March 18 2017 03:37 Elentos wrote:
As long as Zest doesn't stay on adept/phoenix for 20 minutes he has a shot.

So he's gonna lose then?

zakadar

Germany409 Posts

March 17 2017 20:55 GMT

#3050

u can see the problem with aligulac with TYs ranking he lost for his IEM win around 40 points

fzcdarkgod

58 Posts

March 18 2017 09:02 GMT

#3051

On March 18 2017 03:37 Elentos wrote:
As long as Zest doesn't stay on adept/phoenix for 20 minutes he has a shot.

I didn't know why he insisted on it and he prefer the Colossus in the past....

Olli

Austria24422 Posts

March 18 2017 09:11 GMT

#3052

Robo is just bad as an opening right now, phoenix/adept is veeeeery hard to transition out of if you're not constantly fighting. Should have tried still, but I somewhat understand the thought process.

Elentos

55591 Posts

March 18 2017 09:48 GMT

#3053

I don't think there was much of a thought process going on during the Proxima Station game.

He even added a 2nd stargate.

Olli

Austria24422 Posts

March 18 2017 09:54 GMT

#3054

It was an extremely midgame oriented plan that wouldn't have been awful if TY had moved out at any point, but TY did what every terran should do vs phoenix/adept - just turtle to max supply and win.

Lil_nooblet

United States459 Posts

March 18 2017 11:42 GMT

#3055

Hopefully robo openings somehow become better (don't really see it happening soon tho). Pheonix adept just doesn't seem to fit Zest's strengths imo.

fzcdarkgod

58 Posts

March 20 2017 12:43 GMT

#3056

What's wrong with zest?Can zest go back to the peak?I worried about that...His condition is so poor now...I want to know why?

The_Red_Viper

19533 Posts

March 20 2017 12:50 GMT

#3057

It's just his PvT most likely. He always seems to struggle with one matchup i think

Olli

Austria24422 Posts

March 20 2017 12:50 GMT

#3058

PvT is still stupid.

Sakat

Croatia1599 Posts

March 20 2017 12:52 GMT

#3059

In 2014 he couldn't play PvT too, but there weren't that many terrans around... Last year he mostly struggled against Z...

Lil_nooblet

United States459 Posts

March 20 2017 12:54 GMT

#3060

Honestly not sure what he could have done game 2 besides not go robo at the beginning. He didn't even take any forges and he still barely held the tank push and from that point he was still behind.