On June 07 2010 14:12 Nuublet wrote: Thanks for this bump, as someone who came to follow the starcraft scene somewhat late it was a very informative read. Is there anything like this for other match ups?
You can probably do a similar one for ZvP, and you'll see that over time zergs have continuously been raping protosses, except for a stretch when FE became popular (Around when Bisu raped Savior). Then after the rising popularity of 5 hatch hydra and whatnot, ZvP went back to being zerg favored.
On June 07 2010 14:12 Nuublet wrote: Thanks for this bump, as someone who came to follow the starcraft scene somewhat late it was a very informative read. Is there anything like this for other match ups?
You can probably do a similar one for ZvP, and you'll see that over time zergs have continuously been raping protosses, except for a stretch when FE became popular (Around when Bisu raped Savior). Then after the rising popularity of 5 hatch hydra and whatnot, ZvP went back to being zerg favored.
There was a TL poll not all that long ago that just had people vote on their favorite matchup to watch. TvZ, as I recall, won by just a bit over ZvP, which were both way ahead of TvP or any of the mirrors (obviously).
I think the reasons for that tend to be the stagnation factor. TvZ I think has proven to be the most dynamic matchup in the game over most of the game's existence, with broad swings in play happening pretty damn frequently. ZvP has obviously seen its share of revolution, but it seems to me that it has happened less frequently than in TvZ. Then of course there is TvP where I don't really know how to define a broad swing. All of the noticable changes in that matchup seem to take the form of "Terran player X figures out how to effectively handle whatever it is Toss players are favoring at the time. Toss throws another dart at the board 'o PvT strategies and history repeats".
Of course Flash is almost unbeatable PvT these days, but does it count as a true shift in strategy if Flash is the only one who can pull it off so consistently?
This was a really neat read. We probably read it 6 years ago, but seeing it again was nice. If there is a more modern version of this, we would be very interested in reading about the history of the mech switch. We started watching way bw way less in 2010 and only started watching it again a few months ago so we mostly missed the mech switch and have been piecing together the history of it by reading small posts of people talking about it.
I don't know much about the pre-Killer-slump-era but the overall winrate in TvZ since has favored Terran. The mech switch has been so successful, that no Zerg right now has any consistent performance to it. I mean, ZerO got like a few weeks of dominance with 3-gas hive before getting trashed again, while EffOrt tried to beat it back a bit with his ultra-defensive 3-hatch muta into 4 gas. Queens have also seen play. But so far there hasn't been any 2-hatch muta, 3-gas lair etc builds that really swung the meta to Zerg favor.
On July 27 2016 13:51 c3rberUs wrote: I don't know much about the pre-Killer-slump-era but the overall winrate in TvZ since has favored Terran. The mech switch has been so successful, that no Zerg right now has any consistent performance to it. I mean, ZerO got like a few weeks of dominance with 3-gas hive before getting trashed again, while EffOrt tried to beat it back a bit with his ultra-defensive 3-hatch muta into 4 gas. Queens have also seen play. But so far there hasn't been any 2-hatch muta, 3-gas lair etc builds that really swung the meta to Zerg favor.
Rumour has it that Jaedong struggled heavily against late-mech too, since it took so much away from his strong suits in the match-up. His win-rate against his teammate Sea was somewhere around 70 to 80 percent, but plummeted to around 50 percent once Sea started getting used to the late-mech meta-game. In fact, I think Flash has been on the record that SoulKey was the superior player against that specific strategy, but even he didn't get anywhere close to dismantling the strategy.
One of the great mysteries is whether the zerg race could come up with an answer against the late-mech strategy had the professional scene not ended, but I'm kind of pessimistic on that issue. Dealing with late-mech effectively essentially forces a zerg to cripple himself against the terran if he just chooses to stick to the bionic army. Sea himself has been on the record that the strategy is "broken", and I'm of the opinion that the zerg just has to play better than the terran, both in terms of raw execution and mind game to overcome his opponent (even more so than the past when it was already an advantageous match-up for the terran race), rather than having a go-to "answer".
On July 27 2016 13:51 c3rberUs wrote: I don't know much about the pre-Killer-slump-era but the overall winrate in TvZ since has favored Terran. The mech switch has been so successful, that no Zerg right now has any consistent performance to it. I mean, ZerO got like a few weeks of dominance with 3-gas hive before getting trashed again, while EffOrt tried to beat it back a bit with his ultra-defensive 3-hatch muta into 4 gas. Queens have also seen play. But so far there hasn't been any 2-hatch muta, 3-gas lair etc builds that really swung the meta to Zerg favor.
Rumour has it that Jaedong struggled heavily against late-mech too, since it took so much away from his strong suits in the match-up. His win-rate against his teammate Sea was somewhere around 70 to 80 percent, but plummeted to around 50 percent once Sea started getting used to the late-mech meta-game. In fact, I think Flash has been on the record that SoulKey was the superior player against that specific strategy, but even he didn't get anywhere close to dismantling the strategy.
One of the great mysteries is whether the zerg race could come up with an answer against the late-mech strategy had the professional scene not ended, but I'm kind of pessimistic on that issue. Dealing with late-mech effectively essentially forces a zerg to cripple himself against the terran if he just chooses to stick to the bionic army. Sea himself has been on the record that the strategy is "broken", and I'm of the opinion that the zerg just has to play better than the terran, both in terms of raw execution and mind game to overcome his opponent (even more so than the past when it was already an advantageous match-up for the terran race), rather than having a go-to "answer".
I think over time Zerg will figure it out, maybe through brute mechanics. Same happened when zerg dominated through superior muta micro. Otherwise mapmakers should introduce maps which are not so friendly for mech, but this may make pvt imbalance. IMO one reason why it is so terran favored in lategame is because zerg is less cost efficient and a split map scenario will always favor the terran. a 3 player map may balance it back to zergs favor since usually zerg takes the third base. I don't think that terran mech transition will work on rush hour that well for that reason.
Maybe zerg may need to go for oldschool hydra guardian style what sigamari vs goodfriend did on arkadia? Guardians can cost effectively snipe tanks as compared to brute ling ultra swarm, and terran needs to spend on anti air which takes away alot from the scaryness of tanks. In case terran kills off all guardians, zerg can just remax on ling + ultra again. Using guardians is easier than queens, and less risky IMO.
I will try out this style more when I get a shield battery invite
I think one of the main problems is that the transition to mech is done at a period where a zerg is teching/expanding which makes it very safe. I saw ZerO striking early in a few games with success but terrans adapted quickly. Maybe it's all the FS/CB that's being played. I'll certainly look at that sigamari vs GoodFriend game.
I wonder how much we can factor Jaedong being in a slump back when he was in Team 8 with Sea? Or how much better Soulkey would have been against late mech had KeSPA stayed...
Ok here's the problem with the match-up in general that goes beyond the invention of the late mech switch that fucked the match-up beyond repair in my personal opinion.
Iloveoov first fucks up the balance with his early expansion build, and then exploits the hell out of it. sAviOr evens out the match-up with his greatest gift to the zerg race, his famous three hatch build. With the progression of the mutalisk and defiler usage, top terrans struggle against top zergs unless they have a gay unbalanced map.
Iloveoov tries out his mechanic build through his protege, FanTaSy. Zerg struggles against it, but realizes that sAviOr's build was designed mainly for bionic play, goes through a different optimization by going armour heavy mutalisks and attack heavy ground troops. Iloveoov's experimentation with mech ultimately becomes more of a cheese that exploits brainless zergs who try to mutalisk micro their way out of trouble.
Now here's the fucked up part. FanTaSy introduces late-mech switch, the early expansion into 1+ attack to pressure the zerg, and delays the zerg's fourth gas with the threat of bionic troops. The zerg has to go for armour heavy upgrades in order to survive the early game, and can't transition for mechanic play before the terran shows his transition to mech (as in optimization), because if the terran goes through with SK terran his preemptive optimization against late mech will be his demise.
So terran is free to transition to mech while zerg secures his fourth gas, under threat of sticking SK terran to keep the zerg honest, and now can split the map in half. The zerg has the wrong composition, as well as the wrong kind of upgrades (ground armour instead of attack, and no air upgrades), so the terran's transition kicks in at the same time as the zerg, who cannot wise up due to the gayness of terran scans (as in any signs of early adaptation like multiple chambers, overlord upgrade, will prompt the terran to SK terran your ass to death), and now we have minimal amount of resources to fight for, and unless the terran screws up, he can and will split the map in half.
The only way to win is to play better, and it is universally accepted that optimal late game zerg play versus mech terran is the most mechanically intensive thing in the game. The unit composition is the most complex, and I have yet to see any evidence that mastery of late game zerg to the level of other styles of play (say, late game arbiter play) versus a well played late mech terran is actually feasible with human APM limitations. Removing mines with the optimal number of lings, while dropping units from overlords instead of drag attack moving, having the correct defiler swarm placement, using multiple queens quickly and unexpectidly so they don't get EMP'd, having good macro from multiple hatcheries, and all the while making good decisions whilst doing all this, and after all this being rewarded with enough surplus gas to end the game with mass ultralisks or other gas intensive hive units seems way too demanding, even for mechanical beasts like Jaedong.
It's just broken, and the only method to balance the match-up is to lessen the threat of bionic play to give zergs a little more room to optimize versus the mech switch in my opinion. However, things like mineral count, size of the natural choke are heavily linked to zerg versus protoss balance, so it is really hard to balance both match-ups correctly for the zerg race. Three player maps can solve this issue, but I think it then goes to far to the other side, as in it solves the zerg versus terran balance at the cost of terrans getting their heads kicked in by protoss. I think Starcraft has gotten to the stage where one map being balanced for all the match-ups may be a dream.
Ah man, I've been theorizing stuff for modifying both PvZ and ZvT for a long time and I always get stumped because the solutions I think of always make the other matchup broken.
It feels almost impossible to see someone reach that mechanical level that's needed to consistently beat late mech. Maybe if someone can invent tactics that can reach at least 80% of that level...
On July 27 2016 22:30 c3rberUs wrote: Ah man, I've been theorizing stuff for modifying both PvZ and ZvT for a long time and I always get stumped because the solutions I think of always make the other matchup broken.
It feels almost impossible to see someone reach that mechanical level that's needed to consistently beat late mech. Maybe if someone can invent tactics that can reach at least 80% of that level...
the best solution is upgrade consume for queens ^^
On July 27 2016 23:10 duke91 wrote: If only Iloveoov played zerg.... fuck boxer his legacy still last now and fucks up zerg.
Who was the zerg equivalent to iloveoov? Calm? Great?
sAviOr. Both arrogant assholes who toyed with their opponents for about a year and a half after coming up with game changing metagames, then fell into relative mediocrity after the rest of the field caught up to their meta-game. I'd say that Calm played mind games and smart one-off strategies rather than making astonishing meta-games that would shift the game as a whole.
What's the answer to both? Guardians (and to a lesser extent hydralisks and lurkers).
In my noob opinion I think saving mutas and morphing them into guardians will be key. Like other people have explained, zerg is teching up and getting a solid economy while terran is switching to mech and expanding behind map control based mainly on Marine/Medic/Vessel/some tanks and early(ier) mines.
A group of guardians could be used to attack the third and/or prevent the 4th (new main) from terran. Often terran players only have a group of marine medic to defend their 4th before the factories at this location go up. At this moment terrans tend to have a lot of vultures with mines that prevent ground attacks but will do nothing against guardians. They also only have 1 starport with a couple of vessels (any additional gas has gone into vulture upgrades, armory and extra factories).
Then I think zerg's will have to incorportate hydralisks to clean up large mine fields and to actually be able to kill a CC instead of just forcing it to lift. Hydralisks will allow us to expand easier to a 5th and 6th by preventing a single group of vultures from precluding this. The lack of vessels can be abused by lurkers under dark swarm, to defend key positions with minimal costs. Queens are solid but only in the latest stages of the game to lift up sieges and to effectively break a position like the 4th/5th that's defended by too many tanks, mines and turrets.
We as zergs need to abuse the fact that terrans don't have effective anti-air (when they're switching) and don't spend a lot of gas on vessels. We need to use units that can clean up mine fields rapidly and cost-efficiently, which is in my opinion the hydralisk as zerglings are only useful if there are no vultures nearby.
Drops aren't that useful because they are very expensive for the zerg and can't be rushed. A lot of terrans also have walls of turrets ready at their 4th while dropping at a third most often is to conspicuous.
EPT
Thanks!
