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[ASL10] Ro16 Preview P2: Crazy, Messy, Beautiful

Forum Index > BW General
20 CommentsPost a Reply
1 2 All last
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-11 01:20:09
October 11 2020 01:12 GMT
#2
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 11 2020 02:43 GMT
#3
On October 11 2020 10:12 QOGQOG wrote:
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Show nested quote +
Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.


Prior to Season 8 (right before he went off to the military), Soulkey had a win rate of 65% in ZvZ with several of his wins coming from KSL. For almost a year, he was considered the best Zerg player, and he was after effort retired—and the entire time, he kept up a really stellar ZvZ record with very well executed games. His current form is suspect, though, I agree.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-11 05:57:32
October 11 2020 05:30 GMT
#4
On October 11 2020 11:43 EsportsJohn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2020 10:12 QOGQOG wrote:
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.


Prior to Season 8 (right before he went off to the military), Soulkey had a win rate of 65% in ZvZ with several of his wins coming from KSL. For almost a year, he was considered the best Zerg player, and he was after effort retired—and the entire time, he kept up a really stellar ZvZ record with very well executed games. His current form is suspect, though, I agree.

I got curious and did some Liquipedia-ing. Here are all SoulKey's offline ZvZs:

ASL 1 - Did not participate
ASL 2 - No ZvZ
ASL 3 - 1:0 PURPOSE (I have no idea who this is) 1:0 EffOrt
ASL 4 - 1:0 Jaedong 2:3 hero
ASL 5 - 0:1 Action
ASL 6 - 0:1 EffOrt
ASL 7 - No ZvZ
ASL 8 - 0:1 Action 0:2 Sacsri
ASL 9 - 0:1 Soma

Total ASL Score: 5 : 9
Last ZvZ victory in ASL: October 10, 2017

ASTL - 0:1 hero 0:1 Hyuk

Total ASTL Score: 0 : 2
Last ZvZ victory in ASTL: N/A

KSL 1 - No ZvZ
KSL 2 - 3:1 Larva
KSL 3 - 3:1 Action
KSL 4 - Did not participate

Total Score: 6 : 2
Last ZvZ victory: April 25, 2019

It's actually better than I thought. I'd forgotten about his performance in KSL. Maybe there's more hope than I'm giving him credit for. But given he hasn't won a single ZvZ for five seasons of ASL (and also, not entirely coincidentally, hasn't made it past the Ro16 in that time either) and has barely better than a 1/3 winrate, I think my incredulity at him being called "the best ZvZ player in the ASL era" is justifiable.

(Just as a note, I enjoyed the writeup. I just thought that claim was... questionable)
TaardadAiel
Profile Joined May 2017
Bulgaria750 Posts
October 11 2020 05:41 GMT
#5
On October 11 2020 14:30 QOGQOG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2020 11:43 EsportsJohn wrote:
On October 11 2020 10:12 QOGQOG wrote:
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.


Prior to Season 8 (right before he went off to the military), Soulkey had a win rate of 65% in ZvZ with several of his wins coming from KSL. For almost a year, he was considered the best Zerg player, and he was after effort retired—and the entire time, he kept up a really stellar ZvZ record with very well executed games. His current form is suspect, though, I agree.

I got curious and did some Liquipedia-ing. Here are all SoulKey's offline ZvZs:

ASL 1 - Did not participate
ASL 2 - No ZvZ
ASL 3 - 1:0 PURPOSE (I have no idea who this is) 1:0 EffOrt
ASL 4 - 1:0 Jaedong 2:3 hero
ASL 5 - 0:1 Action
ASL 6 - 0:1 EffOrt
ASL 7 - No ZvZ
ASL 8 - 0:1 Action 0:2 Sacsri
ASL 9 - 0:1 Soma

Total ASL Score: 5 : 9
Last ZvZ victory in ASL: October 10, 2017

ASTL - 0:1 hero 0:1 Hyuk

Total ASYL Score: 0 : 2
Last ZvZ victory in ASYL: N/A

KSL 1 - No ZvZ
KSL 2 - 3:1 Larva
KSL 3 - 3:1 Action
KSL 4 - Did not participate

Total Score: 6 : 4
Last ZvZ victory: April 25, 2019

It's actually better than I thought. I'd forgotten about his performance in KSL. Maybe there's more hope than I'm giving him credit for. But given he hasn't won a single ZvZ for five seasons of ASL (and also, not entirely coincidentally, hasn't made it past the Ro16 in that time either) and has barely better than a 1/3 winrate, so I think my incredulity at him being called "the best ZvZ player in the ASL era" is justifiable.

(Just as a note, I enjoyed the writeup. I just thought that claim was... questionable)


You are five minutes ahead of me, I was just going to check. I had the same impression, not backed by data, that ZvZs were what was leading to his early exits more often than not. And I too forgot about the KSL, where he seemed to be doing better in general (he won season 2, after all).

It seems, as usual with Soulkey, that it's a matter of choking and not general skill level. Applies to all matchups. Soulkey performing at 100% is champion material and has been since ASL3. I'll repeat myself: must be very tough to be a SK fan, his form varies so wildly.
WriterReV hwaiting!
KobraKay
Profile Joined March 2010
Portugal4231 Posts
October 11 2020 08:39 GMT
#6
Very nice write up. This time around, I wish your predictions come true!

Im excited and stressed out at the same time for what Flash will do.
CJ Fighting! (--.--)
Djabanete
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States2786 Posts
October 11 2020 08:54 GMT
#7
Good luck, Flash!
May the BeSt man win.
AntiHack
Profile Joined January 2009
Switzerland553 Posts
October 11 2020 14:47 GMT
#8
Imagine having this ASL10 right after one of the best season of all times... I mean BW is getting better and better, aging like wine I'd say
"I am very tired of your grammar errors" - Zoler[MB]
Zeronova
Profile Joined September 2020
54 Posts
October 11 2020 15:17 GMT
#9
+ Show Spoiler +
Super surprised by how well Flash did. I shouldn’t have been a hater. Shout out to Free too. He didn't make it out but I think he still exceeded expectations


For group D I agree with your assessment. Likely both Zergs get out. PvZ is hard. However, my heart says Shuttle. He is so impressive and just keeps smashing expectations.
RKC
Profile Joined June 2012
2848 Posts
October 11 2020 16:06 GMT
#10
Soulkey, I believe!

He just seems to get stuck at the group stages, for some reason. He'll show good games in BO3-B05. Really hope to see him advance through 1st place!
gg no re thx
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 11 2020 18:10 GMT
#11
On October 11 2020 14:30 QOGQOG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2020 11:43 EsportsJohn wrote:
On October 11 2020 10:12 QOGQOG wrote:
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.


Prior to Season 8 (right before he went off to the military), Soulkey had a win rate of 65% in ZvZ with several of his wins coming from KSL. For almost a year, he was considered the best Zerg player, and he was after effort retired—and the entire time, he kept up a really stellar ZvZ record with very well executed games. His current form is suspect, though, I agree.


Total Score: 6 : 2
Last ZvZ victory: April 25, 2019


Just want to point out that Soulkey was also gone to the military for 6-7 months, so using this date might be somewhat of an exaggeration.

It's actually better than I thought. I'd forgotten about his performance in KSL. Maybe there's more hope than I'm giving him credit for. But given he hasn't won a single ZvZ for five seasons of ASL (and also, not entirely coincidentally, hasn't made it past the Ro16 in that time either) and has barely better than a 1/3 winrate, I think my incredulity at him being called "the best ZvZ player in the ASL era" is justifiable.

(Just as a note, I enjoyed the writeup. I just thought that claim was... questionable)


I think he's definitely been a really bad slump ever since his KSL3 win, and he does tend to choke in offline events in general, so I agree that his chances at winning a ZvZ much less topping the group are slim and would be surprising, yet I think it makes the most sense. After doing some digging though, I agree that although Soulkey was very good with a decent ZvZ record prior to going to the military, Action seems to be the best ZvZ player in the ASL era since coming back in ASL6. Action has winning records against Jaedong, Effort (at the height of his strength), and Soulkey, so I think that makes him probably the best overall. (Funny note: Soma has a Bo3 victory over Action from last season tho).
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
nimdil
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Poland3748 Posts
October 11 2020 20:34 GMT
#12
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 11 2020 20:41 GMT
#13
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?


Basically.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
Piste
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
6174 Posts
October 11 2020 21:07 GMT
#14
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?

In the interview he said he wanted to challenge himself and is taking the challenge seriously.

Antisocialmunky
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States5912 Posts
October 11 2020 21:57 GMT
#15
On October 12 2020 05:41 EsportsJohn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?


Basically.


"[God] does not play dice with the universe" - Albert Einstein, 1926

"Watch me" - Flash, 2020
[゚n゚] SSSSssssssSSsss ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Marine/Raven Guide:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=163605
KobraKay
Profile Joined March 2010
Portugal4231 Posts
October 11 2020 23:00 GMT
#16
On October 12 2020 06:57 Antisocialmunky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2020 05:41 EsportsJohn wrote:
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?


Basically.


"[God] does not play dice with the universe" - Albert Einstein, 1926

"Watch me" - Flash, 2020


Oh the Flash memes hero! You're back at the same level as before xD
CJ Fighting! (--.--)
Antisocialmunky
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States5912 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-12 00:34:27
October 12 2020 00:33 GMT
#17
[image loading]
[゚n゚] SSSSssssssSSsss ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Marine/Raven Guide:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=163605
Sabu113
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States11047 Posts
October 12 2020 01:40 GMT
#18
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?


Uh you need to watch. Badly. This Ro16 has been ridiculously good.

I'm just posting here preparing to be smug when mini dances on some zerg corpses. MINI HWAITING. (though I hope Soma is good )
Biomine is a drunken chick who is on industrial strength amphetamines and would just grab your dick and jerk it as hard and violently as she could while screaming 'OMG FUCK ME', because she saw it in a Sasha Grey video ...-Wombat_Ni
Amanebak
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Czech Republic528 Posts
October 12 2020 16:46 GMT
#19
On October 12 2020 09:33 Antisocialmunky wrote:
[image loading]

Haha, good job!
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?

I bumped into this video:

BW
Golgotha
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Korea (South)8418 Posts
October 17 2020 14:21 GMT
#20
Haha. Good job Blind for the perfect flash and snow prediction
nimdil
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Poland3748 Posts
October 19 2020 10:28 GMT
#21
THanks for the answers. The matches were a blast. I especially like how Tastosis hyped facial expression for R->T :D
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