EPT
The Ro24 has finally concluded and surprisingly, the only two terran players in the Ro16 are Flash and Mind. The rest is an even split of top Protoss and Zerg players.
The last two Ro24 groups were full of surprises. Group E saw Mini advance in first place with fantastic games while Action took second, eliminating Soulkey in quite the tense game on Gladiator. Group F saw Jaedong advance comfortably while Movie managed to take out Sea in the finals' match to advance as well. For a recap of the games, please read the recaps written by Ty2!
With the groups finished, the group ceremony commenced. Much like the past, a lot of banter took place between the players as they each tried their best to land in a group of their preference. Shuttle was probably the biggest loser of the night, landing in an all zerg group consisting of Larva, Jaedong and EffOrt. He jokingly stated that he's going to quit Starcraft as a response to this nightmare.
By the time it ended, Flash managed to make himself a nice group consisting of Mind, Shine and Miso. This group will start in and has been previewed by FlaShFTW while Group B featuring hero, Best, Stork and Snow, previewed by Bigfan will start 2 days after. Let's get hyped!
The last two Ro24 groups were full of surprises. Group E saw Mini advance in first place with fantastic games while Action took second, eliminating Soulkey in quite the tense game on Gladiator. Group F saw Jaedong advance comfortably while Movie managed to take out Sea in the finals' match to advance as well. For a recap of the games, please read the recaps written by Ty2!
With the groups finished, the group ceremony commenced. Much like the past, a lot of banter took place between the players as they each tried their best to land in a group of their preference. Shuttle was probably the biggest loser of the night, landing in an all zerg group consisting of Larva, Jaedong and EffOrt. He jokingly stated that he's going to quit Starcraft as a response to this nightmare.
By the time it ended, Flash managed to make himself a nice group consisting of Mind, Shine and Miso. This group will start in and has been previewed by FlaShFTW while Group B featuring hero, Best, Stork and Snow, previewed by Bigfan will start 2 days after. Let's get hyped!
Table of contents
Liquipedia
The Group with Soulkey in It
The first matches of Group E began with 
Soulkey vs 
Mini and Action vs 
Sharp. Soulkey came in as the heavy favorite, championing the sponsor game ELO rankings as #1. For group E, the tone set was for Mini, Action, and Sharp to prove themselves.
Game 1 - Sharp vs Action on Sparkle:
On Sparkle, Sharp spawns in the bottom right and Action spawns in the top left. Sharp, opting for an air army heavy strategy, builds up to 4 starports for a combined wraith and valkyrie fleet. Action, already taking the initiative into his own hands prepares a massive hydra doom drop with an escorting muta scourge group. Action takes advantage of Sharp's low air fleet numbers and volatility in defense with his precise timing. Inches from Sharp's base, the two air fleets make contact.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/qgyL5JV.jpg)
In the ensuing battle, Sharp's low valkyrie numbers and tankiness of the mutas allow the overlords to safely unload the hydras. Sharp's air fleet now scattered and broken leave no standing army to answer the rampaging hydras. An incredibly quick game, Action's timing attack works flawlessly.
Game 2 - Mini vs Soulkey on Sparkle:
Mini spawns in the top left and Soulkey spawns in the bottom left of Sparkle. Soulkey, known for masterfully wielding the popular hydra scourge into muta style goes instead for a volatile pure air army of muta scourge.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/blBbXTe.jpg)
The shuttle in an unfortunate run-in meets its natural enemy, the scourge
The beginning rings ominously for Mini as Soulkey intercepts his first Shuttle with a probe inside. However, Mini encroaching with his corsair fleet makes a tense even trade with Soulkey's first round of scourge and mutas.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/8mo3tfa.jpg)
The next move is made by Soulkey, whose's attempt to shut down Mini's 3rd is botched horribly as the counterattack with reavers kills Soulkey's economy and remaining air units. Mini's advantage only skyrockets as Soulkey's remaining expansions are shut down with no standing air army to contest the corsair fleet. In an upset, Soulkey's misplays cost him the game.
Winners' Match - Mini vs Action on Transistor:
Mini spawns in the 1 o'clock and Action spawns in the 9 o'clock. Mini opens up with a 1 gate FE, attacking with three zealots. Action skillfully feigns a backstab with four lings while making enough lings at home to defend. However, Mini's skillful maneuvering kills and forces the transfer of drones, and splits up Action's zerglings on either side of the mineral field. Momentum leaning to Mini, his followup mass speed zealot attack spells doom for Action. Action, attempting to not overdefend skips sunkens at his main/nat, but falls to the sheer zealot numbers in an anticlimactic game.
Losers' Match - Soulkey vs Sharp on Transistor:
A game that could end the hope of Soulkey as the greatest challenger to Flash begins. Soulkey spawns in the 9 o'clock and Sharp spawns in the 1 o'clock. Sharp, attempting to run away with the economic advantage is immediately stopped in his tracks by Soulkey's 12 pool opener into 2 hatch lair. The first four lings force the pulling and loss of several SCVs as Sharp now on crutches must brave the imminent mutas.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/GjxheOL.jpg)
Sharp is slowly picked apart with too few resources to make turrets, delayed academy upgrades, and dwindling marine numbers. Soulkey, having amassed a hive of mutas finally goes in for the kill as Sharp can only watch in resignation.
Final Match - Soulkey vs Action on Gladiator:
In the final match of group E, Soulkey spawns in the bottom left while Action spawns in the bottom right. Action opts for a 9 pool as Soulkey continues to drone, going for an accursed 12 hatch. The audience can only watch in horror for the trainwreck to unfold, but any superior ZvZ player can more than make up the difference despite a build order disadvantage.
Soulkey defensively cancels his hatch and makes a sunken, opting for a fast lair. Action shakily holds his early won advantage as Soulkey attempts to break Action's offensive ling wall. Breaking Action's concave at the top of his ramp, a few zerglings pass by to Action's exposed mineral line. Action then loses the remaining lings at Soulkey's ramp, forcing Action to defend with his mutas.
Soulkey despite being on one base skillfully makes Action's advantage of a faster expansion his greatest weakness. Simultaneously, he threatens Action's main with his mutas and Action's natural with his greater ling count.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/mozIafI.jpg)
However, on one muta dive in, Soulkey's mutas stray too close to Action's greater flock. Action, latched on and never letting go of his ticket to the Ro16 pursues Soulkey with a merciless moving shot. The loss of Soulkey's entire muta flock spells defeat as Action's subsequent counterattack claims victory. In a surprise upset, Action, #18 in the ELO rankings defeats the #1, Soulkey, a feat in recent memory only matched by Tyson's victory over Flash in ATB.
Mini and Action advance to the Ro16!
Soulkey vs Mini and Action vs Sharp. Soulkey came in as the heavy favorite, championing the sponsor game ELO rankings as #1. For group E, the tone set was for Mini, Action, and Sharp to prove themselves.Game 1 - Sharp vs Action on Sparkle:
On Sparkle, Sharp spawns in the bottom right and Action spawns in the top left. Sharp, opting for an air army heavy strategy, builds up to 4 starports for a combined wraith and valkyrie fleet. Action, already taking the initiative into his own hands prepares a massive hydra doom drop with an escorting muta scourge group. Action takes advantage of Sharp's low air fleet numbers and volatility in defense with his precise timing. Inches from Sharp's base, the two air fleets make contact.
In the ensuing battle, Sharp's low valkyrie numbers and tankiness of the mutas allow the overlords to safely unload the hydras. Sharp's air fleet now scattered and broken leave no standing army to answer the rampaging hydras. An incredibly quick game, Action's timing attack works flawlessly.
Game 2 - Mini vs Soulkey on Sparkle:
Mini spawns in the top left and Soulkey spawns in the bottom left of Sparkle. Soulkey, known for masterfully wielding the popular hydra scourge into muta style goes instead for a volatile pure air army of muta scourge.
The shuttle in an unfortunate run-in meets its natural enemy, the scourge
The beginning rings ominously for Mini as Soulkey intercepts his first Shuttle with a probe inside. However, Mini encroaching with his corsair fleet makes a tense even trade with Soulkey's first round of scourge and mutas.
The next move is made by Soulkey, whose's attempt to shut down Mini's 3rd is botched horribly as the counterattack with reavers kills Soulkey's economy and remaining air units. Mini's advantage only skyrockets as Soulkey's remaining expansions are shut down with no standing air army to contest the corsair fleet. In an upset, Soulkey's misplays cost him the game.
Winners' Match - Mini vs Action on Transistor:
Mini spawns in the 1 o'clock and Action spawns in the 9 o'clock. Mini opens up with a 1 gate FE, attacking with three zealots. Action skillfully feigns a backstab with four lings while making enough lings at home to defend. However, Mini's skillful maneuvering kills and forces the transfer of drones, and splits up Action's zerglings on either side of the mineral field. Momentum leaning to Mini, his followup mass speed zealot attack spells doom for Action. Action, attempting to not overdefend skips sunkens at his main/nat, but falls to the sheer zealot numbers in an anticlimactic game.
Losers' Match - Soulkey vs Sharp on Transistor:
A game that could end the hope of Soulkey as the greatest challenger to Flash begins. Soulkey spawns in the 9 o'clock and Sharp spawns in the 1 o'clock. Sharp, attempting to run away with the economic advantage is immediately stopped in his tracks by Soulkey's 12 pool opener into 2 hatch lair. The first four lings force the pulling and loss of several SCVs as Sharp now on crutches must brave the imminent mutas.
Sharp is slowly picked apart with too few resources to make turrets, delayed academy upgrades, and dwindling marine numbers. Soulkey, having amassed a hive of mutas finally goes in for the kill as Sharp can only watch in resignation.
Final Match - Soulkey vs Action on Gladiator:
In the final match of group E, Soulkey spawns in the bottom left while Action spawns in the bottom right. Action opts for a 9 pool as Soulkey continues to drone, going for an accursed 12 hatch. The audience can only watch in horror for the trainwreck to unfold, but any superior ZvZ player can more than make up the difference despite a build order disadvantage.
Soulkey defensively cancels his hatch and makes a sunken, opting for a fast lair. Action shakily holds his early won advantage as Soulkey attempts to break Action's offensive ling wall. Breaking Action's concave at the top of his ramp, a few zerglings pass by to Action's exposed mineral line. Action then loses the remaining lings at Soulkey's ramp, forcing Action to defend with his mutas.
Soulkey despite being on one base skillfully makes Action's advantage of a faster expansion his greatest weakness. Simultaneously, he threatens Action's main with his mutas and Action's natural with his greater ling count.
However, on one muta dive in, Soulkey's mutas stray too close to Action's greater flock. Action, latched on and never letting go of his ticket to the Ro16 pursues Soulkey with a merciless moving shot. The loss of Soulkey's entire muta flock spells defeat as Action's subsequent counterattack claims victory. In a surprise upset, Action, #18 in the ELO rankings defeats the #1, Soulkey, a feat in recent memory only matched by Tyson's victory over Flash in ATB.
Mini and Action advance to the Ro16!
The Tyrant Returns!
Game 1 - Sea vs Pusan on Sparkle:
Sea spawns in the top left against blast from the past Pusan in the bottom right. Pusan, showing the competitive grit of a veteran, opens with an incredibly daring DT drop that catches Sea's CC first into double Starport completely off guard.
However, while flashy, the cross positions and the buffer for aggression of island maps gives Sea plenty of cushion to crawl back. Both supplies even, Sea certainly can...
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/qvUx2Gx.jpg)
Pusan in the lead with an expansion looks to have an ample advantage. Pusan switches to his own makeshift air fleet following in stride with Sea. However, Sea's air advantage fells Pusan's expansion. In the rescue attempt, several corsairs are bruised by valkyries.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/FRu5Cje.jpg)
Note the blue puffs are exploded corsairs and the orange poofs are the valkyrie missiles
Pusan decides to return the favor with a combined shuttle and air fleet, but midway through the map, his already bruised corsairs disappear in a wispy mist.
As the tide turns against him, Pusan makes the most of what he has, shutting down Sea's 12 o'clock expansion with his shuttles. The game continues to look grim as Pusan's expansions are systematically shut down and his rebuilt fleet is, but a shadow of what it once was. A last attempt, a valiant flock of shuttles is sent to shut down Sea's 9 o'clock which is soon met by a crushing armada of dropships with several times the units in tow. Pusan, whose attack now petered out in a pitiful display, taps out.
Game 2 - Jaedong vs Movie on Sparkle:
Jaedong, a highly anticipated favorite spawns in the top right while Movie, a highly unanticipated protoss prodigy spawns in the bottom right. Jaedong takes the game to Movie's mass expansion style, shutting down Movie's fourth base attempt in the bottom left with a hydra drop. A far more effective hydra drop in the heart of Movie's main shuts down a cybernetics core's critical air upgrade.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/BMixKJy.jpg)
Jaedong's next attack, with a complete arsenal of hydra drops, devourers, scourge, mutas, and queens, dismantles Movie's 6 o'clock base. In a game won with one decisive attack, JD claims victory one-sidedly.
Winners' Match - Jaedong vs. Sea on Transistor
Jaedong spawns in the 9 o'clock as Sea spawns in the 1 o'clock. Sea opts for an aggressive factory starport opener, delaying the expansion heavily while JD goes 2 hatch muta. The ambitious use of speed vultures to abuse the double ramps is negated by JD's watchful overlords. JD, flicking off the vulture aggression moves in for the kill with mutaling. The SCV line ravaged and the cloaked wraiths delaying the inevitable, Sea is forced to move and left with 8 SCV's mining. Sea concedes as his wraiths offer little challenge to JD's mutas.
Losers' Match - Pusan vs. Movie on Transistor:
Pusan spawns in the 5 o'clock while Movie spawns in the 9 o'clock. Both opt for a semi-greedy gateway into expand.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/eqpV2M2.jpg)
Movie knowing Pusan's intention cleverly withholds a few zealots and probes to place a pylon to block Pusan's expansion...
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/KDe9x1I.jpg)
and again, this time with a forge
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/QcBYlws.jpg)
and again
Pusan retaliates by stealing Movie's gas repeatedly, but the move offers little redemption as Movie's expansion finishes as Pusan's just starts. Movie takes a decisive 8 supply lead through his supply blocking shenanigans alone.
As the game progresses, the expansion block's effect only appear to balloon as Movie has a nearly whopping 30 supply lead without a single unit lost in the game. Movie follows up with DT aggression, but is fended off by Pusan's observers.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/BAdwuOI.jpg)
Movie, not finished yet, bounces back with a devastating storm drop that kills 13 probes.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/AHnJ5b8.jpg)
Pusan, knowing he has to make a move, attempts a fight that only stumbles in its tracks as Movie rips victory away from Pusan.
Final Match - Sea vs. Movie on Gladiator:
Sea spawns in the top right while Movie spawns in the bottom left. Movie opts for a 1 gate cyber expand. Making a nexus slightly faster than usual, Sea attempts to abuse the greedy opening with a committed FD. The saving grace for Movie however is the cross positions rush distance as he barely hangs on. Pushed to the brink, Movie manages to push back the remnants of Sea's offensive force as both break even.
Movie progresses to 2 base arbiter as Sea matches the tech with 5 factories and a fast science facility.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/U34Lhh7.jpg)
As both players calmly expand, one group of Movie's Dragoons finds itself quickly encircled at the 9 o'clock by Terran's forces.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/oFOv2a1.jpg)
Movie takes the opportunity to quickly recall in Sea's main base. The dragoons stall at the ramp while the zealots wreak havoc behind. The zealots manage to kill the majority of the SCV's, and even more critically, the armory before the decisive +2 weapons upgrade finishes.
The action winding down, Sea brilliantly EMP snipes the escaped arbiter. With no danger of recall present, Sea moves out.
![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/mbsz4Xd.jpg)
Movie is more than ready to step up to the plate. Outmacroing Sea, Movie positions his units to swarm Sea's army from all sides. His last hope reduced to smithereens, Sea concedes.
Jaedong and Movie advance to the Ro16!
Sea spawns in the top left against blast from the past Pusan in the bottom right. Pusan, showing the competitive grit of a veteran, opens with an incredibly daring DT drop that catches Sea's CC first into double Starport completely off guard. However, while flashy, the cross positions and the buffer for aggression of island maps gives Sea plenty of cushion to crawl back. Both supplies even, Sea certainly can...
Pusan in the lead with an expansion looks to have an ample advantage. Pusan switches to his own makeshift air fleet following in stride with Sea. However, Sea's air advantage fells Pusan's expansion. In the rescue attempt, several corsairs are bruised by valkyries.
Note the blue puffs are exploded corsairs and the orange poofs are the valkyrie missiles
Pusan decides to return the favor with a combined shuttle and air fleet, but midway through the map, his already bruised corsairs disappear in a wispy mist.
As the tide turns against him, Pusan makes the most of what he has, shutting down Sea's 12 o'clock expansion with his shuttles. The game continues to look grim as Pusan's expansions are systematically shut down and his rebuilt fleet is, but a shadow of what it once was. A last attempt, a valiant flock of shuttles is sent to shut down Sea's 9 o'clock which is soon met by a crushing armada of dropships with several times the units in tow. Pusan, whose attack now petered out in a pitiful display, taps out.
Game 2 - Jaedong vs Movie on Sparkle:
Jaedong, a highly anticipated favorite spawns in the top right while Movie, a highly unanticipated protoss prodigy spawns in the bottom right. Jaedong takes the game to Movie's mass expansion style, shutting down Movie's fourth base attempt in the bottom left with a hydra drop. A far more effective hydra drop in the heart of Movie's main shuts down a cybernetics core's critical air upgrade. Jaedong's next attack, with a complete arsenal of hydra drops, devourers, scourge, mutas, and queens, dismantles Movie's 6 o'clock base. In a game won with one decisive attack, JD claims victory one-sidedly.
Winners' Match - Jaedong vs. Sea on Transistor
Jaedong spawns in the 9 o'clock as Sea spawns in the 1 o'clock. Sea opts for an aggressive factory starport opener, delaying the expansion heavily while JD goes 2 hatch muta. The ambitious use of speed vultures to abuse the double ramps is negated by JD's watchful overlords. JD, flicking off the vulture aggression moves in for the kill with mutaling. The SCV line ravaged and the cloaked wraiths delaying the inevitable, Sea is forced to move and left with 8 SCV's mining. Sea concedes as his wraiths offer little challenge to JD's mutas.
Losers' Match - Pusan vs. Movie on Transistor:
Pusan spawns in the 5 o'clock while Movie spawns in the 9 o'clock. Both opt for a semi-greedy gateway into expand.
Movie knowing Pusan's intention cleverly withholds a few zealots and probes to place a pylon to block Pusan's expansion...
and again, this time with a forge
and again
Pusan retaliates by stealing Movie's gas repeatedly, but the move offers little redemption as Movie's expansion finishes as Pusan's just starts. Movie takes a decisive 8 supply lead through his supply blocking shenanigans alone.
As the game progresses, the expansion block's effect only appear to balloon as Movie has a nearly whopping 30 supply lead without a single unit lost in the game. Movie follows up with DT aggression, but is fended off by Pusan's observers.
Movie, not finished yet, bounces back with a devastating storm drop that kills 13 probes.
Pusan, knowing he has to make a move, attempts a fight that only stumbles in its tracks as Movie rips victory away from Pusan.
Final Match - Sea vs. Movie on Gladiator:
Sea spawns in the top right while Movie spawns in the bottom left. Movie opts for a 1 gate cyber expand. Making a nexus slightly faster than usual, Sea attempts to abuse the greedy opening with a committed FD. The saving grace for Movie however is the cross positions rush distance as he barely hangs on. Pushed to the brink, Movie manages to push back the remnants of Sea's offensive force as both break even.
Movie progresses to 2 base arbiter as Sea matches the tech with 5 factories and a fast science facility.
As both players calmly expand, one group of Movie's Dragoons finds itself quickly encircled at the 9 o'clock by Terran's forces.
Movie takes the opportunity to quickly recall in Sea's main base. The dragoons stall at the ramp while the zealots wreak havoc behind. The zealots manage to kill the majority of the SCV's, and even more critically, the armory before the decisive +2 weapons upgrade finishes.
The action winding down, Sea brilliantly EMP snipes the escaped arbiter. With no danger of recall present, Sea moves out.
Movie is more than ready to step up to the plate. Outmacroing Sea, Movie positions his units to swarm Sea's army from all sides. His last hope reduced to smithereens, Sea concedes.
Jaedong and Movie advance to the Ro16!
The Unstoppable Force Meets the Map Pool
The Ultimate Weapon will finally be unleashed upon the ASL with the new maps. Although Sparkle may be removed from the map pool, Flash will still have his hands full proving himself once again on Transistor and Third World. The rest of the group, comprised of Mind, Where, and Shine, will do their best to prove themselves against God and find a path out of the group. How will the players fare on the new map of Third World, and will FlaSh roll over yet another Round of 16 group?
Game 1: FlaSh < Transistor > Mind
FlaSh’s TvT is still is best matchup. It’s weird to say that FlaSh even has a “best matchup” considering how dominant he is in all matchups, but his TvT game sense and understanding of how and when to push his tank line is outstanding. His last TvT against Mind ended in a quick 3-0 in favor of FlaSh, but that isn’t to say Mind didn’t put up a fight. His games on Crossing Field and Gold Rush were quite close and pushed FlaSh to his limit, before ultimately crumbling to him in Game 3. Still, FlaSh seems to be impervious in TvT, and there’s not really any Terran right now that can seem to challenge him. Mind’s TvT has been historically sub-par for most Terrans (41%), and Transistor seems to favor those who have to think on their feet and have the best intuition.
Game 2: Where < Transistor > Shine
Shine thrives best when he can prepare with his cheeky bag of builds. His last Transistor game that pushed him into the Round of 16 was a very clutch 2-prong ling/drone all-in against Sky. Shine knows he will face a Zerg and then a Terran on Third World, regardless of the results of Game 1. Where has definitely surprised most, with practically no one picking him to advance through to the Round of 16. His ZvZ win-rate back in KeSPA was quite good actually, albeit he didn’t play many matches. However, in post-KeSPA, he has failed to show any signs of life in the matchup. The last ZvZ he played, he got thrashed by a Soulkey. I expect Shine to come out with a solid opener and be able to outperform Where in this matchup.
Winner’s Match: FlaSh < Third World > Shine
Shine is definitely having a wonky build order on this new map. And who can blame him? First off, it’s a new map, and second, it’s FlaSh. A rematch of the ASL3 finals will sure be an exciting one. However, FlaSh should easily sniff something out. While I don’t know exactly how this map plays out in the ZvT matchup, I can expect FlaSh to have two openers: either the 1/1/1, or a fast 2 rax academy bust attempt. With the 1/1/1, he can try to see what Shine is up to with the early wraith, and if Shine greedily expands to the other half of the map, FlaSh can opt for vulture drops to harass. The map seems to me like it is slightly Terran favored given how defensive Zerg will have to play, and how good FlaSh is with preparing for maps like this.
Loser’s Match: Mind < Third World > Where
For the same reason as listed above, I think I have to give Mind the advantage here. Mind’s TvZ is his best matchup, often regarded in the past as a one-trick pony like Light was. Where on the other hand, yes he did defeat Last, but it was on a very imbalanced Sparkle. Besides that, he hasn’t won a single ZvT yet in professional play, and I don’t think he’ll be able to muster a surprise finish in this group. While Third World does lend itself to a weird match, it’s not close to being as different as Sparkle. Once again, a powerful 1/1/1 could potentially devastate Zerg on this map, and no Zerg has really been able to figure out this innovative strategy.
Final Match: Shine < Gladiator > Mind
This one is hard to predict. On one hand, Shine will probably have a cool bag of builds trick planned for this match. My guess would probably be lurker drops. On the other hand, Mind’s TvZ is still incredible. He demonstrated a technical defense of Calm’s 2 hatch muta play, and still boasts a 70% TvZ winrate. Ultimately, it will come down to how good the bag of builds can be from Shine, but I don’t think that he will be able to withstand Mind’s onslaught, especially with his fantastic marine micro.
Flash and Mind advance to the Quarterfinals!
Flash will still have his hands full proving himself once again on Transistor and Third World. The rest of the group, comprised of Mind, Where, and Shine, will do their best to prove themselves against God and find a path out of the group. How will the players fare on the new map of Third World, and will FlaSh roll over yet another Round of 16 group?Game 1: FlaSh < Transistor > Mind
FlaSh’s TvT is still is best matchup. It’s weird to say that FlaSh even has a “best matchup” considering how dominant he is in all matchups, but his TvT game sense and understanding of how and when to push his tank line is outstanding. His last TvT against Mind ended in a quick 3-0 in favor of FlaSh, but that isn’t to say Mind didn’t put up a fight. His games on Crossing Field and Gold Rush were quite close and pushed FlaSh to his limit, before ultimately crumbling to him in Game 3. Still, FlaSh seems to be impervious in TvT, and there’s not really any Terran right now that can seem to challenge him. Mind’s TvT has been historically sub-par for most Terrans (41%), and Transistor seems to favor those who have to think on their feet and have the best intuition.
FlaSh > Mind
Game 2: Where < Transistor > Shine
Shine thrives best when he can prepare with his cheeky bag of builds. His last Transistor game that pushed him into the Round of 16 was a very clutch 2-prong ling/drone all-in against Sky. Shine knows he will face a Zerg and then a Terran on Third World, regardless of the results of Game 1. Where has definitely surprised most, with practically no one picking him to advance through to the Round of 16. His ZvZ win-rate back in KeSPA was quite good actually, albeit he didn’t play many matches. However, in post-KeSPA, he has failed to show any signs of life in the matchup. The last ZvZ he played, he got thrashed by a Soulkey. I expect Shine to come out with a solid opener and be able to outperform Where in this matchup.
Where < Shine
Winner’s Match: FlaSh < Third World > Shine
Shine is definitely having a wonky build order on this new map. And who can blame him? First off, it’s a new map, and second, it’s FlaSh. A rematch of the ASL3 finals will sure be an exciting one. However, FlaSh should easily sniff something out. While I don’t know exactly how this map plays out in the ZvT matchup, I can expect FlaSh to have two openers: either the 1/1/1, or a fast 2 rax academy bust attempt. With the 1/1/1, he can try to see what Shine is up to with the early wraith, and if Shine greedily expands to the other half of the map, FlaSh can opt for vulture drops to harass. The map seems to me like it is slightly Terran favored given how defensive Zerg will have to play, and how good FlaSh is with preparing for maps like this.
FlaSh > Shine
Loser’s Match: Mind < Third World > Where
For the same reason as listed above, I think I have to give Mind the advantage here. Mind’s TvZ is his best matchup, often regarded in the past as a one-trick pony like Light was. Where on the other hand, yes he did defeat Last, but it was on a very imbalanced Sparkle. Besides that, he hasn’t won a single ZvT yet in professional play, and I don’t think he’ll be able to muster a surprise finish in this group. While Third World does lend itself to a weird match, it’s not close to being as different as Sparkle. Once again, a powerful 1/1/1 could potentially devastate Zerg on this map, and no Zerg has really been able to figure out this innovative strategy.
Mind > Where
Final Match: Shine < Gladiator > Mind
This one is hard to predict. On one hand, Shine will probably have a cool bag of builds trick planned for this match. My guess would probably be lurker drops. On the other hand, Mind’s TvZ is still incredible. He demonstrated a technical defense of Calm’s 2 hatch muta play, and still boasts a 70% TvZ winrate. Ultimately, it will come down to how good the bag of builds can be from Shine, but I don’t think that he will be able to withstand Mind’s onslaught, especially with his fantastic marine micro.
Shine < Mind
Flash and Mind advance to the Quarterfinals!
hero and Protoss
Group B promises to be quite an exciting group as hero, the ASL4 finalist finds himself swimming in a group of protoss players which consists of Best, Stork and Snow. They certainly have their work cut out for them as they face a specialist in their worst matchup.
Transistor which is the first map, has shown us some wacky games and some all-ins so it'll be interesting to see if this trend changes in the Ro16. All of the Protoss players have close to 50% winrate vs Zerg in the past 10 months in sponmatches. Against this particular Zerg, BeSt, Stork and Snow have a winrate of 28.2%, 27.5% and 35.2% respectively. Based off this, there's a pretty decent chance that hero will just take the first game, crushing Best and advancing to the winners' match.
If Best wants to have any chance against hero, he'll have to prepare as well as he did back in ASL2 where he crushed hero in the quarterfinals. It's quite possible that Best will pull off the upset considering this map has only been played on so many times and being aggressive early on might be his best bet, but only time will tell. The winner will face off against the winner of Stork and Snow. Snow has one of the best winrates among Protoss players, second only to Mini who tops the group. His winrate exceeds 60% and though Stork has shown some great PvP in the past beating GuemChi and free, Snow is more than a match for him on a map that seems to favour reaver play.
This sets up a hero vs Snow winners' match on Third World. From my limited knowledge, this map seems to cater to Snow's playstyle, however, if hero spawns at 8 o'clock and manages to hold the top left corner bases, it'll play to his advantage greatly. Add on the fact that he thrives on vP matchups, and Snow's absymal record vs hero and the result seems all but certain. Seeing as this is a new untested map, I expect that the players will develop some solid strategies to use and will try to exploit map features. Maybe we'll see a reaver opening into grabbing the top expos, expanding behind cannons and gateways/robo while trying to harass the zerg to keep them on the defensive. Or maybe, just maybe we'll even get to see arbiters in action for recalls haha. One can dream after all ~
The losers' match will be between Best and Stork. Stork's winrate is in the low 40% compared to Best who surpasses 50% in sponmatches, however, as mentioned, this is a new map that will see PvP played on it for the first time in a competitive tournament. If Stork prepares well and he's an expert at preparing for funky maps, he may be able to upset Best. This will be a close one and it will come down to whoever has the best build and can figure out what his opponent is doing. I do believe it can go either way. Unfortunately for Stork fans, I believe that Best will likely take a close win.
Finally, the final match on Gladiator will be between Snow and Best. Sponmatch results put this squarely in Snow's favour, with Snow winning 75% of their matches. Seeing as this is PvP, there is a chance that we'll see something similar to what took place between Shuttle and Sky or maybe one of the players will go on the offensive early on, avoiding a late game scenario.
hero < Transistor > Best
Snow < Transistor > Stork
hero < Third World > Snow
Best < Third World > Stork
Snow < Gladiator > Best
hero and Snow to advance to the Ro16!
hero, the ASL4 finalist finds himself swimming in a group of protoss players which consists of Best, Stork and Snow. They certainly have their work cut out for them as they face a specialist in their worst matchup. Transistor which is the first map, has shown us some wacky games and some all-ins so it'll be interesting to see if this trend changes in the Ro16. All of the Protoss players have close to 50% winrate vs Zerg in the past 10 months in sponmatches. Against this particular Zerg, BeSt, Stork and Snow have a winrate of 28.2%, 27.5% and 35.2% respectively. Based off this, there's a pretty decent chance that hero will just take the first game, crushing Best and advancing to the winners' match.
If Best wants to have any chance against hero, he'll have to prepare as well as he did back in ASL2 where he crushed hero in the quarterfinals. It's quite possible that Best will pull off the upset considering this map has only been played on so many times and being aggressive early on might be his best bet, but only time will tell. The winner will face off against the winner of Stork and Snow. Snow has one of the best winrates among Protoss players, second only to Mini who tops the group. His winrate exceeds 60% and though Stork has shown some great PvP in the past beating GuemChi and free, Snow is more than a match for him on a map that seems to favour reaver play.
This sets up a hero vs Snow winners' match on Third World. From my limited knowledge, this map seems to cater to Snow's playstyle, however, if hero spawns at 8 o'clock and manages to hold the top left corner bases, it'll play to his advantage greatly. Add on the fact that he thrives on vP matchups, and Snow's absymal record vs hero and the result seems all but certain. Seeing as this is a new untested map, I expect that the players will develop some solid strategies to use and will try to exploit map features. Maybe we'll see a reaver opening into grabbing the top expos, expanding behind cannons and gateways/robo while trying to harass the zerg to keep them on the defensive. Or maybe, just maybe we'll even get to see arbiters in action for recalls haha. One can dream after all ~
The losers' match will be between Best and Stork. Stork's winrate is in the low 40% compared to Best who surpasses 50% in sponmatches, however, as mentioned, this is a new map that will see PvP played on it for the first time in a competitive tournament. If Stork prepares well and he's an expert at preparing for funky maps, he may be able to upset Best. This will be a close one and it will come down to whoever has the best build and can figure out what his opponent is doing. I do believe it can go either way. Unfortunately for Stork fans, I believe that Best will likely take a close win.
Finally, the final match on Gladiator will be between Snow and Best. Sponmatch results put this squarely in Snow's favour, with Snow winning 75% of their matches. Seeing as this is PvP, there is a chance that we'll see something similar to what took place between Shuttle and Sky or maybe one of the players will go on the offensive early on, avoiding a late game scenario.
hero < Transistor > BestSnow < Transistor > Storkhero < Third World > SnowBest < Third World > StorkSnow < Gladiator > Besthero and Snow to advance to the Ro16!
