Four down, four to go. After two days of perhaps not the most scintillating Starcraft in the history of the universe, eight players have left the SSL10 as the tournament marches on towards the Ro16 and Yongsan eSports Stadium. With the two most accomplished Zerg players in the tournament, Killer and ZerO, already eliminated, the success or failure of an entire race rests on the shoulders of only a few players as the final four Ro32 groups begin tomorrow afternoon.
In the second half of our Ro32 preview, we begin with a slightly new look recap section, in which one of our newer recruits BigFan has wrapped up the action from each group before providing a performance rating for each of the groups' participants. Next up, we have a battle report on one of the better games from the Christmas period (it was slim pickings) written by Croatia's own uncle-toss, 2Pacalypse-. Finally, Mirabel_ returns to preview the final four groups of the Ro32, this time hopefully with predictions undisturbed by my own meddling.
In the second half of our Ro32 preview, we begin with a slightly new look recap section, in which one of our newer recruits BigFan has wrapped up the action from each group before providing a performance rating for each of the groups' participants. Next up, we have a battle report on one of the better games from the Christmas period (it was slim pickings) written by Croatia's own uncle-toss, 2Pacalypse-. Finally, Mirabel_ returns to preview the final four groups of the Ro32, this time hopefully with predictions undisturbed by my own meddling.
Table of Contents
Round of 32 Recap I
Christmas Cheer
Battle report
Mong vs. Sea.KH
Round of 32 Preview II
Zerg needs a hero
Liquipedia
Round of 32 Recap I
Christmas Cheer
Battle report
Mong vs. Sea.KH
Round of 32 Preview II
Zerg needs a hero
Liquipedia
Group A
Match #1: sSak < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Movie
Match #2: force[Name] < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > ZerO
Winners' Match: force[Name] < Fighting Spirit > sSak
Losers' Match: ZerO < Return of the King > Movie
Final Match: force[Name] < Blue Storm > Movie
sSak and Movie advance to Ro16.
Match #1: sSak < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Movie
Match #2: force[Name] < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > ZerO
Winners' Match: force[Name] < Fighting Spirit > sSak
Losers' Match: ZerO < Return of the King > Movie
Final Match: force[Name] < Blue Storm > Movie
sSak and Movie advance to Ro16.
The first group of the Ro32 featured established veterans such as sSak, Movie and ZerO that have all made an impact on the scene before the end of professional BW. sSak started things off by taking the first game after he capitalized on Movie's lack of a clear gameplan and sub-par control sniping a reaver and pushing into his third on Sin Peaks of Baekdu. He continued his strong run going up against Force[Name] in the winners match. His MnM control and impeccable timing allowed him to strike right before guardians were out on Fighting Spirit eventually beating the crazy Zerg style of Force[Name] to advance in first place.
After Force[Name] beat ZerO in what can only be described as a major upset, Movie was forced to face off against ZerO in an elimination match on Return of the King. Not to be outdone after his rocky start, Movie showed glimpses of his amazing harass, utilizing signature units such as the dark templar to cripple ZerO's economy. Mustering up a sizable zealot and reaver force, Movie broke down ZerO's front with good control before withdrawing. A followup attack with high templar support was more than enough as Movie dashed the hopes and dreams of ZerO fans to earn a second chance to advance to the Ro16.
Final attack!
The surprise player of the group was none other than Force[Name]. A previous SSL winner who was written off as fodder for the other professional players, he showed us his unique Zerg play in his game against sSak and beat ZerO, the ZvZ specialist. In his final match against Movie on Blue Storm, he held the advantage after an early zergling runby netted him up to 4 probe kills and looked to be in a good position to upset Movie as well. Realizing his dire situation, Movie went for a zealot and high templar attack on Force[Name]'s expansion looking to strike before hive, the Young Hwa timing! Force[Name] was caught off-guard and went on to lose the game with Movie advancing in second place.
While Force[Name] had strong performance, it was still not enough to help him advance over titans such as sSak and Movie. ZerO, despite playing his heart out will have to wait until SSL11 or KSL to try and make a splash for his fans.
A strong showing from sSak, who had great control and decision making throughout his games. His performance was pretty decent and on par with expectations for someone of his caliber.
Despite having some sloppy reaver control in his first game, Movie managed to impress us with his harass and timing attacks. He is also very knowledgeable in regards to the PvZ matchup and is comfortable with taking it to the late game.
The surprise of the tournament, Force[Name]'s play was solid and impressive. He has a unique style of play though his micro and tendency to misread the situation hold back his full potential. Once these are fixed, he can be a real threat in future tournaments.
For a Zerg described as brilliant during professional BW, ZerO's performance was disappointing and below what he is capable of. We expect a lot more from an MSL finalist. ZerO has a lot to work to do if he hopes to advance in future SSLs.
Group B
Match #1: firebathero < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Mini
Match #2: Killer < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > PianO
Winners' Match: Mini < Fighting Spirit > PianO
Losers' Match: firebathero < Return of the King > Killer
Final Match: PianO < Blue Storm > Killer
Mini and PianO advance to Ro16.
Match #1: firebathero < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Mini
Match #2: Killer < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > PianO
Winners' Match: Mini < Fighting Spirit > PianO
Losers' Match: firebathero < Return of the King > Killer
Final Match: PianO < Blue Storm > Killer
Mini and PianO advance to Ro16.
One of the most anticipated groups of the Ro32, we were treated with some exciting back and forth games. Starting off the group was Mini, the dark horse who seemed confident in his play during the group selection stage. His game against firebathero on Sin Peaks of Baekdu was one of total domination after strong early game harass kept firebathero on two bases while Mini took the map. His winners match against PianO showed his ability to stay calm under pressure despite being behind economically after PianO managed to pull off a brilliant strategy (double expand behind a biomech push of marines and vultures). Coupled with strong macro and a bit of luck on his side, he beat PianO to advance in first place.
PianO who is known for his aggressive playstyle and unorthodox strategies showed us some impressive gameplay last night. Known as the TvZ specialist, he managed to best Killer not once but twice in the same night. On Sin Peaks of Baekdu, he dealt severe economic damage to Killer (twelve drones killed!) with a sunken bust. His constant aggression and strong micro which we've come to expect from PianO were too much for Killer to handle. Their rematch took place on Blue Storm after PianO lost to Mini in a close game on Fighting Spirit. Killer would showcase his strong mutalisk micro and understanding of map architecture as he contained PianO and prevented him from moving out several times. After PianO managed to leave his base, he went for a major attack on Killer's expansion which Killer could not stop. With that, PianO advanced in second place.
Deciding battle!
Deemed as the best Zerg on Afreeca and a favorite to win SSL10, many expected Killer to advance in first or second place. It is unfortunate that he came up against PianO early on. Despite his loss, he showed some brilliant TvZ games against PianO that are worthy of praise and are a must watch for any BW fan. His other consolation was beating firebathero whose lackluster performance due to lack of practice showed through his play. Much to the dismay of his fans, firebathero was not able to show sparkles of his past brilliance and ended up as a punching bag for the likes of Mini and Killer.
Mini showcased strong macro, solid play, and unwavering confidence in his games. He sticks to the usual composition in TvP and he should make it far if he maintains this level of play.
PianO's spectacular micro and unorthodox strategies made for a great spectating experience. He needs to work more on his decisionmaking skills in the TvP matchup, but he is still a real strong contender for the title.
Considering Killer's past, we know he is capable of much more than what was shown in his games. He needs to start playing with safety in mind or scout much more if he wants to be greedy. He put up some great fights and lasted much longer than any other Zerg would have.
Firebathero's gameplay was very disheartening for his fans. Poor macro, sub-par micro, and misreading the situation were all contributing factors in his losses and these are things that he must work if he plans to participate in future tournaments.
Group C
Match #1: Kwanro < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Last
Match #2: Snow < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Shinee
Winners' Match: Snow < Fighting Spirit > Kwanro
Losers' Match: Last < Return of the King > Shinee
Final Match: Last < Blue Storm > Kwanro
Snow and Last advance to Round of 16.
Match #1: Kwanro < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Last
Match #2: Snow < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Shinee
Winners' Match: Snow < Fighting Spirit > Kwanro
Losers' Match: Last < Return of the King > Shinee
Final Match: Last < Blue Storm > Kwanro
Snow and Last advance to Round of 16.
With Kwanro rumoured to be lacking practice due to injury and Last tearing up the Fish server, reaching first place, the result of their first encounter seemed pretty clear. In one of the most perplexing moments of SSL so far, Kwanro decided to go for a macro game on Sin Peaks of Baekdu showing that he is not just a one trick pony. After he managed to establish a five base economy, he was ruthless attacking on multiple fronts and pushing Last's multitasking to the limit. Once Last's third was taken down, he tapped out, giving Kwanro the win.
Snow showcased his resilience in his game against Shinee as he managed to come back from what seemed like certain defeat to win the game. After Shinee lost the element of surprise (cloaked wraiths to snipe several carriers and obs), his refusal to change his composition was his undoing as Snow adapted to the situation prompting amazement from the commentators in regards to his observer count. He went on to utilize the infamous 2-gate in the winners' match hard countering Kwanro's 9-pool into double expand build to advance in first place.
With their SSL lives on the line, Shinee and Last duked it out in a macro TvT game on Return of the King that had commentators bet on how long the game will last for a grand prize of a cup of coffee! Despite keeping up with Last and scoring some big worker kills at his third, Shinee was unable to stop Last's large wraith switch (more than starports) which was only possible after Last secured a huge economic lead on the back of a hidden fourth base early on. This set up a rematch between Last and Kwanro on Blue Storm with Kwanro using his signature unit, the zergling for an all-in. Yet, even Kwanro hit a bunker as his zergling all-in failed leading to his loss after Last pushed out with a large MnM+tank army:
Nerf bunkers!
With that, Kwanro, the player who placed fourth in the last SSL will not be able to reach the same height this time around. Though both players showed their strong fighting spirit through some hard fought games, they will have to work harder for a chance to advance in future SSLs.
Snow's performance was solid in his games. His ability to come up with a game plan in a short period of time, combined with a 'never give up' attitude, was instrumental to his wins, and it should help him in future games.
A TvT specialist, Last plays the matchup well, but he needs to work on his micro and be willing to take risks in his TvZs otherwise he'll be knocked out when facing a Zerg player. Overall, he is a player to keep an eye on.
A decent and somewhat unexpected performance from the retired CJ Zerg, exhibiting some of his signature micro-oriented aggressive play. While his level of activity has decreased, this showing suggests that Kwanro can continue to be a good competitor in future offline tournaments.
Shinee played well in his games, but several things held him back. His macro needs some work, and he needs to scout more and develop the ability to change his plan on the fly if required, otherwise he'll have a hard time advancing in the next tournament he participates in.
Group D
Match #1: Mong < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Sea.KH
Match #2: Hyuk < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > ToSsGirL
Winners' Match: Mong < Fighting Spirit > Hyuk
Losers' Match: Sea.KH < Return of the King > ToSsGirL
Final Match: Sea.KH < Blue Storm > Hyuk
Mong and Sea.KH advance to Round of 16.
Match #1: Mong < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > Sea.KH
Match #2: Hyuk < Sin Peaks of Baekdu > ToSsGirL
Winners' Match: Mong < Fighting Spirit > Hyuk
Losers' Match: Sea.KH < Return of the King > ToSsGirL
Final Match: Sea.KH < Blue Storm > Hyuk
Mong and Sea.KH advance to Round of 16.
For many, this was the group to watch. Though it doesn't contain many players of the highest caliber, this was the group that had the most successful female progamer of all time, ToSsGirL! Coming into this group as an unknown, many questioned her ability to stand up to the current progamers noting her past performance and limited practice time. Sea.KH was another player that many looked at with curiosity. A previous SSL winner, was he good enough to compete with Mong and Hyuk?
One thing was for sure though, Mong did not disappoint! In his first game against Sea.KH on Sin Peaks of Baekdu, he multitasked and harassed like a madmen prompting the commentators to compare him to Flash. While Sea.KH eventually managed to establish a third, Mong's macro coupled with his strong harass were too much for the protoss. In the winners' match, Mong went on to meet Hyuk who just got off dismantling Tossgirl using a 3 hatchery mutalisk build. In that game, despite trying her best to hang on, Tossgirl was forced to defend against zerglings the whole game and was turret-less when the mutalisks arrived.
TosSGirL fighting an uphill battle.
Mong started their game with a barracks expand eventually building up a sizable army of MnM and tanks. An engagement took place outside Hyuk's natural. In what can only be described as Hyuk hyuking himself, he split up his army before engaging Mong who took the decisive battle and the game with great split micro. Down in the losers' match, the two unknowns, Tossgirl and Sea.KH met with each looking for a chance to redeem themselves. A macro game ensued on Return of the King as both players engaged several times on the middle ground however Sea.KH pulled ahead and managed to win the main battle and recall into her main to get another shot at advancing by defeating Hyuk.
The splits by Mong
Looking to finish the game early, Hyuk channeled his inner Shine and went for a hydra bust off two bases on Blue Storm. This was easily defended by Sea.KH who ended up hitting the perfect timing with his speedlot and high templar army as Hyuk grabbed a fourth and transitioned to mutalisks to advance to the Ro16. Based on their games, it seems apparent that both Tossgirl and Hyuk will require a lot more practice if they wish to compete in future tournaments and appease their fans.
Solid macro, phenomenal micro, and lots of harass are the best way to describe Mong's current gameplay. He has been steadily improving and he has earned the nickname "Afreeca FlaSh" by his fans. He has the potential to make it all the way to the finals.
Sea.KH's performance is a mixed bag. His macro needed work when he played against Mong but he easily outmacroed Hyuk and ToSsGirL, likely due to the skill difference. His decision making skills are sound, though, and this should be very helpful in the Ro16.
Hyuk's micro is decent and he can mix things up if needed (playing aggressive, passive, etc.) however his macro needs work and his propensity to make mistakes leads to lost games. He will need to work on these weaknesses if he hopes to stand up to the current lineup of progamers.
The inactivity of Tossgirl hurt the level of play that she displayed. She was outclassed in both macro and micro, and her lack of confidence was detrimental to her overall game. She'll need to work on these areas if she hopes to advance in future tournaments.
First game of group D was a PvT between SOSPA veteran Sea.KH and the 'Afreecan FlaSh' Mong. The map was an old school classic, Sin Peaks of Baekdu, a map of which konadora analyzed in our previous preview. Even though there wasn't much riding on this game, as the loser would most likely be playing against TossGirl next, neither of the players tried any funny business and they instead went for a standard game.
The Protoss player spawned at the six o'clock position and, regardless of it being a two-player map, sent out his probe after a first pylon to find the Terran, unexpectedly, at the twelve o'clock position. The early probe was sent out with a clear purpose in mind: to steal the Mong's gas, forcing him to go for an early expansion. Mong was unfazed by the double gas steal and he was happy to oblige to his opponent's wishes by making an early command center.
A second gas steal. Two times as annoying.
KH went for an expansion of his own and, after faking a double gateway while Mong's SCV was scouting his base, he canceled the second gateway as soon as the SCV left and went for the robotics facility instead. I'm unsure what the purpose of this cancellation was as KH actually went to harass with his first couple of zealots and dragons; something that having a second gateway would make better. Due to the nature of wide choke at the natural expansion of Sin Peaks of Baekdu, one bunker was not enough to successfully defend the KH's harass, so the couple of zealots and dragons actually managed to delay Mong's mining a bit with even a few of the SCV kills.
Yo mama is so fat she could not pass through the Sins Peaks of Baekdu natural expansion's choke to harass SCVs.
With Mong's first tank rolling out, the harass was effectively put to a stop and both players focused on building their economies. With the necessity of taking a third base approaching, it was a perfect time to do some dropship play to try to disrupt the economy of the other play. Mong made a dropship and put a few vultures in it, while KH made a shuttle with a reaver. Unfortunately for KH, vultures are better at killing workers because each of them carry three invisible nukes while also being the fastest unit in the game; and somehow that's fair. KH's reaver did little to no damage as Mong was well prepared with properly placed sieged tanks in his base, as well as a wraith to shoot down the shuttle.
After the both players took their third base, Mong used the advantage of having the map having the third expansion be quite far from the main base, by showcasing some FantaSy-esque vulture harass, managing to spread KH's units all over the place, while also killing few of his probes in process. KH tried to return the favor by attacking the third base of Mong with a small group of units and while he did manage to kill few sieged tanks and handful of vultures, the Terran player did not suffer any economic damage in the form of dead SCVs.
Keep your friends close and your enemy's sieged tanks closer.
Following the hectic harass-oriented midgame, both players took hold of their respective expansions and started to transition into the late-game. For KH, this was manifest in the form of taking a fourth base at the eight o'clock expansion and of course, making carriers. Unfortunately for him though, Mong's pesky little vultures were relentless in their quest of running around the map trying to cause damage in any way they can. And this time, they did it by sneaking into the KH's base and scouting out the three starports with a fleet beacon, a sight of every Terran's nightmare.
Oh you're making carriers? Cool. Cool cool cool.
Unfortunately for KH, again, Mong was no ordinary Terran; this was a man that was dubbed 'Afreecan FlaSh' by his fans, and we all know what FlaSh was famous for: boringness (I kid, I kid). Mong was well-prepared to deal with the carriers, but still, not wanting to take a chance with Protoss imbalances, he decided it would be a good time to attack before KH reached a critical mass of carriers. This proved la good decision, as he marched through the map practically unopposed taking down KH's expansions one by one.
I wish I could write about some epic last fight, an ultimate showdown that will be remembered for generations to come, but I'm afraid I can't be dishonest. KH ran around the map with his ground units stalling for time while trying to get as many carriers as he could, and more importantly, frantically pressing that 'I' button that everyone knows builds your interceptors faster the faster you press it. But it was of no help, because as soon as a few interceptors would come out and try to defend against the Terran's push, they would be instantly shot down by a decently numbered and well-researched goliaths.
What is a difference between a carrier with no interceptors and a storage closet? Storage closet is actually useful.
Seeing no way out, as his carrier fleet just didn't have enough time to mature, KH was forced to type out and try his luck against TossGirl.
The Protoss player spawned at the six o'clock position and, regardless of it being a two-player map, sent out his probe after a first pylon to find the Terran, unexpectedly, at the twelve o'clock position. The early probe was sent out with a clear purpose in mind: to steal the Mong's gas, forcing him to go for an early expansion. Mong was unfazed by the double gas steal and he was happy to oblige to his opponent's wishes by making an early command center.
A second gas steal. Two times as annoying.
KH went for an expansion of his own and, after faking a double gateway while Mong's SCV was scouting his base, he canceled the second gateway as soon as the SCV left and went for the robotics facility instead. I'm unsure what the purpose of this cancellation was as KH actually went to harass with his first couple of zealots and dragons; something that having a second gateway would make better. Due to the nature of wide choke at the natural expansion of Sin Peaks of Baekdu, one bunker was not enough to successfully defend the KH's harass, so the couple of zealots and dragons actually managed to delay Mong's mining a bit with even a few of the SCV kills.
Yo mama is so fat she could not pass through the Sins Peaks of Baekdu natural expansion's choke to harass SCVs.
With Mong's first tank rolling out, the harass was effectively put to a stop and both players focused on building their economies. With the necessity of taking a third base approaching, it was a perfect time to do some dropship play to try to disrupt the economy of the other play. Mong made a dropship and put a few vultures in it, while KH made a shuttle with a reaver. Unfortunately for KH, vultures are better at killing workers because each of them carry three invisible nukes while also being the fastest unit in the game; and somehow that's fair. KH's reaver did little to no damage as Mong was well prepared with properly placed sieged tanks in his base, as well as a wraith to shoot down the shuttle.
After the both players took their third base, Mong used the advantage of having the map having the third expansion be quite far from the main base, by showcasing some FantaSy-esque vulture harass, managing to spread KH's units all over the place, while also killing few of his probes in process. KH tried to return the favor by attacking the third base of Mong with a small group of units and while he did manage to kill few sieged tanks and handful of vultures, the Terran player did not suffer any economic damage in the form of dead SCVs.
Keep your friends close and your enemy's sieged tanks closer.
Following the hectic harass-oriented midgame, both players took hold of their respective expansions and started to transition into the late-game. For KH, this was manifest in the form of taking a fourth base at the eight o'clock expansion and of course, making carriers. Unfortunately for him though, Mong's pesky little vultures were relentless in their quest of running around the map trying to cause damage in any way they can. And this time, they did it by sneaking into the KH's base and scouting out the three starports with a fleet beacon, a sight of every Terran's nightmare.
Oh you're making carriers? Cool. Cool cool cool.
Unfortunately for KH, again, Mong was no ordinary Terran; this was a man that was dubbed 'Afreecan FlaSh' by his fans, and we all know what FlaSh was famous for: boringness (I kid, I kid). Mong was well-prepared to deal with the carriers, but still, not wanting to take a chance with Protoss imbalances, he decided it would be a good time to attack before KH reached a critical mass of carriers. This proved la good decision, as he marched through the map practically unopposed taking down KH's expansions one by one.
I wish I could write about some epic last fight, an ultimate showdown that will be remembered for generations to come, but I'm afraid I can't be dishonest. KH ran around the map with his ground units stalling for time while trying to get as many carriers as he could, and more importantly, frantically pressing that 'I' button that everyone knows builds your interceptors faster the faster you press it. But it was of no help, because as soon as a few interceptors would come out and try to defend against the Terran's push, they would be instantly shot down by a decently numbered and well-researched goliaths.
What is a difference between a carrier with no interceptors and a storage closet? Storage closet is actually useful.
Seeing no way out, as his carrier fleet just didn't have enough time to mature, KH was forced to type out and try his luck against TossGirl.
Group E - Path of a Hero
Wednesday, Dec 31 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Wednesday, Dec 31 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
HerO |
Zeus |
MajOr |
GuemChi |
This is a Protoss-heavy group, which bodes very well for Zerg's hero. The macro-heavy fast-techer and almost SSL9 champion (who has consistently earned only silvers since then), by.hero has traded ZvP sets with the very best throughout this year and surprisingly held his own in ZvT as well, taking series from TvZ monsters like Mind and Sea. In his way stand the steadily improving Guemchi, the perpetually slumping Zeus, and the unknown factor: Major.
Major’s chances in SSL10 are left almost entirely to conjecture. This recognizable Terran, making his amateur premiere in SSL10, was a long-active, rarely-seen fourth-rate player whose proleague role was that of a merely-serviceable TvZ sniper. Were he and by.hero to fight back in 2009, when hero was a second-rate ZvP sniper and not a premier league finalist, Major would actually have been the favorite to win. Unfortunately, he's stuck dealing with two Protoss first - Guemchi, who had a strong autumn, and living legend Zeus, who I can't even believe is on a 5-win streak against Terran - before he has a chance to play his signature matchup. This is a new world, where Modesty can look like a ZvT god, so maybe Major can put these Protoss in their place.
Number One Dad, Zeus.
In November, Guemchi 3-0'd hero in a LoveTV sponmatch, and that's the only post-KeSPA game on record transpiring between them. With SSL9's champion, PvZ god Bisu, not participating in the successor league and judging from hero’s strong record and recent Fish ladder matches I'd call hero the clear favorite against any Protoss in this Starleague (perhaps barring Movie). Guemchi's play since his return to BW has been inconsistent, but he's been successful enough in December to be favored against the other two in this group, at least.
Zeus, this year taking on the role of a minor league BJ plus sponsor, has an OSL silver stashed away somewhere, but by.hero would need to really drop the ball not to advance to the winner's match against him. In 2014, he’s posted PvT wins over sSak and Ample in team leagues, and that’s about it. If Major fails to step it up, Zeus might get to play in the fifth game. However, Guemchi advanced in the LoveTV KOTH mainly with his PvP, and hero is an industrial-class ZvP sniper, so it’s more than unlikely that he’ll steal a ticket to the televised stages. At least he’s got another awesome Group Selection entrance on which to look back.
by.hero and Guemchi to advance.
Group F - Spire Sharpener
Wednesday, Dec 31 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Wednesday, Dec 31 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Larva |
Sharp |
Pure |
By.Spire |
During the final game of Group C, the commentators caught themselves exhibiting bias for Kwanro against Last out of sympathy for the frustrated Zerg players and fans around the world, given their race's waning representation since Ro32 began. With two Zergs, Group F may well be the best opportunity to save the decaying racial balance.
The ever-popular ex-SKT BJ Larva lucked into a relatively easy group, with no consistent threats to speak of. Larva edged TvZ baller PianO out in a sponsored Bo5 recently, so he should be able to compete against the likes of Sharp in his current form. If he somehow manages to run into ex-STX practice partner By.Spire, he could be in trouble. Spire has proven awful in general, but his best performances this year are in Zerg mirrors, and he had the best performance of the SBENU team in Gabangpop SPL last Spring; given this group’s uncertain skill level versus Zerg, it’s too early to count Spire out.
With Terror drifting away from the scene, Larva has worked hard to carry on his legacy.
There isn't much on Sharp's TvZ, even as a professional. This ex-Samsung Terran was called upon in the third Hope ClanLeague finals to represent NsP where he proceeded to sweep two Protoss (the first of which was an in-form Snow) and a Terran before slamming into Last. But he's not going to advance without beating a Zerg, and there's no record of him doing so this year in tournament. Sharp IS a Terran and an ex-pro, so maybe he'll join the 2014 Terran empire and beast his way to 2-0. Maybe his unproven TvZ isn't that bad. Or maybe he's duller than his handle implies.
Pure is the final factor, being the group's only Protoss. His record in sponsored amateur games since debuting over a year ago is absolutely horrid, although his competition has been significantly stronger than most players at his low winrate. His main achievement so far is an upset 3-2 victory over HiyA just this month, in which his mid-game management was surprisingly impressive. Like Sharp, he'll need to beat a Zerg to advance, and a Bo3 win on Modesty earlier this month convinces us he can do just that. Pure is ready as he'll ever be for anything this group might throw at him, and if he can keep his motivation up he's golden.
If Larva, the current #3 Zerg on Fish, brings with him on Tuesday the competitive spirit that he has honed for the last few months, then he will easily be able to triumph over this relatively weak group. His ZvZ is still in question and by.Spire's isn't, so let's just hope for now that the two don't meet in the losers' match.
Larva and Pure to advance.
Group G - Feed the Fish
Thursday, Jan 01 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Thursday, Jan 01 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
HiyA |
Lazy |
Tyson |
free |
We nearly had a resurgence of SSL9's Group P, but in a result of divine affirmative action, HiyA was injected into a bunch of Protoss players that he would then arrogantly label "all the same" in the group selection ceremony. Alone, the fact that this group is half PvP makes it hard enough to predict, but it turns out we've got an odd counter triangle in the dispersed records of these players' meetings this year. Free is favored against HiyA, HiyA against Lazy and Tyson, and both of those two against free. If these trends alone determined the group's outcome, free would never get a shot at HiyA before exiting 0-2.
Fun fact - HiyA has a fantastic 11-1 professional record on Shin Peaks of Baekdu, although that was ages ago and primarily against Zergs and Terrans. Nevertheless, HiyA has until just this month been known for a fantastic TvP across all maps. He's one of the few Terrans feared by five of the Protoss Dragons in his professional days, and this year he proved himself against the sixth, none other than Bisu, in multiple Bo5s. Few players have proven themselves this year like HiyA has, taking two Kongdoo Special Matches over the fiercest of competition. HiyA is one of the favorites to win it all, and if he shows up motivated this is his Group to win.
HiyA prepares for an oncoming storm.
HiyA was right in calling Lazy and Tyson predictable - the two players, distinguished in playstyle, do fall into abusable patterns more often than other Protosses, which contributed to their slumps in 2014, the strongest year in amateur history. However, one can't write them off as easy prey, even for HiyA and free. Brutish Tyson has one of the heaviest-hitting PvTs in the scene, while both he and consistent Lazy have been taking the sparse majority of their games played against free. Either of them could beat HiyA if they can just catch him off-guard, though neither are favored. The oddest thing about this group is that this whole situation is familiar to Tyson. In SSL8, back in early 2013, Tyson braved two groups of three Protoss each to enter the Ro8, where he took none other than HiyA to a fifth game. There are so many ways history can repeat itself here - HiyA could kill Tyson here, or Tyson could advance from yet another Protoss-heavy group.
The three Protoss in this group, on their best days, are close enough in skill for it to be a literal Toss-up as to who advances among them. Thus the question becomes: of the three, who's least likely to pull a Jaehoon? That'd be the recovering dragon, free. free's rock solid standard play, consistent overall record against both Protoss and Terran since his debut this year and advantageous head-to-head score on HiyA makes him the slight favorite to seize the group over the more established amateur tosses, even though they both have the advantage on him in head-to-head.
The carp's awesome record against Lazy and Tyson makes him the other favorite. HiyA has been strangely shaky in December, but it's hard to forget his critical wins against Bisu and Snow earlier this year. With only one matchup to prepare on every map and having selected his first opponent, HiyA is favored to advance. And should he and free meet, we can only hope HiyA doesn't cute himself to death like in the Hana Daetoo MSL.
HiyA and free to advance
Group H - We Who Are About To Die
Thursday, Jan 01 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Thursday, Jan 01 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
JangBi |
Modesty |
Mind |
Shuttle |
Ladies and gentlemen: the strongest Round of 32 Group of SSL10. Group A left us anguished, Group B left us battered, but when the apparent underdog in Group H is champion of the two most recent OSLs, it's clear that this Round of 32 will end in tears.
SRT18's champion Shuttle consistently swaps spots with PianO as the ruler of Fish, suitably echoing the rivalry of Terran and Protoss in 2014. Yoonjoong's dominance and involvement in the BW scene this year is unmistakable: he's built up a winning record on all three of his Groupmates, along with two 2014 minor silvers. An Ro8 regular and the closest thing to a PvP specialist since Horang2, he is nonetheless hampered by an inconsistent PvZ, and the fortune to have avoided Groups of Death in the past. Also, since Group H has another Protoss, he will need to prepare all three matchups to reach the televised stage.
WeMade FOX ex-pro Mind is an MSL champion who was considered the prime example of TvP, way back in 2007. With two remarkable Protoss in his way, he’ll need to invoke that might once again. Fortunate to have avoided his weakest matchup - TvT - in the Ro32, the encyclopedic Mind sports a respectable 60% record in fourteen months of TvP and a shamelessly imbalanced TvZ, in which he nears 80%.. Although he is 13-10 collectively against the first four Protosses to advance to Ro16, he has a storied 7-10 record against his first opponent, Shuttle, in this year alone. Mind’s stability throughout the year and trademark resourceful play makes him one of the Terran favorites to take this tournament - or it would if there were more Zergs advancing!
Shuttle contemplates the likelihood of his losing a PvP.
Modesty, the last of the Zerg favorites, had a fantastic breakout year.Though he played the role of a dedicated ZvZ sniper professionally, his mechanics in ZvT were considered the strongest in the scene during Killer’s slump in early 2014. After early elimination in the Ro16 of SSL9, he cruised through to the late stages of every tournament he played - as long as he could avoid PianO. Modesty has a fantastic record on every afreeca ex-pro except a few Zergs and that musical demon. Oh, incidentally, ZvP, which Modesty plays first, is statistically his strongest matchup since his SOSPA debut. Switch him with anyone in any other group and he’d be a clear favorite to advance, but in this one, there’s major doubts, given his form since returning this month.
The reigning back-to-back OSL champion, Jangbi, spent the last two months without so much as a blink from his Afreeca channel, which exploded into life as he was confirmed for SSL10. These days he’s playing every day, and only a fraction of it is broadcasted. His form may seem sloppy as ever, his win-rate in broadcasted games this month not so high, his form casual, but he’s putting in serious work until game day; Jangbi is serious. Will his profound connection with his fans and his Zealots (both of which he knows on a first-name basis) suffice for an awkward year? He was in a similar questionable state at his rebirth in the Jin Air OSL. Perhaps we’ll see the Legend of the Fall in the dead of Winter.
Jangbi, with a questionable 10-12 record in 2014, and Modesty, coming off a seasonal hiatus with a Bo3 loss to Pure, appears only slightly less likely to advance than the equally shaky Mind and Shuttle. This group, in its entirety, will depend on who eats their Wheaties that morning, and you won’t want to miss it, whoever your favorite might be.
Mind and Shuttle to advance.
WRITERS: BigFan, 2Pacalypse- & Mirabel_
GRAPHICS: prech & Hyde
EDITORS: kjwcj & itsjustatank
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