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[PL] The Race to Qualify

Forum Index > BW General
Post a Reply
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Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36374 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-07-03 16:59:06
June 19 2010 20:15 GMT
#1
The final few weeks of Shinhan PL are upon us. For those unfamiliar, the top 6 make the playoffs -- the culmination of an entire year's worth of Proleague matches. The format is the 5th and 6th place teams play, the winner moves to play the 4th place team, all the way up to the grand finals. I think the playoff format is three bo7s between each of the teams, but I'm not 100% sure about that.

Regardless, the standings currently look like this:

Updated w/ July 03 results (SAM vs HWA, SKT vs KTR)
1.  KTR 36-16 (+46) SAM, MBC, HIT
2. STX 32-20 (+12) ACE, WJN, SKT
3. MBC 30-22 (+17) CJE, KTR, HWA
4. SKT 29-24 (+12) HWA, STX
5. CJE 29-24 ( +5) MBC, ACE
6. WEM 28-24 (+17) WJN, ACE, SAM
----------------------------
7. HWA 26-26 ( -1) SKT, HIT, MBC
8. SAM 26-27 (-13) KTR, WEM
9. WJN 25-27 (+10) WEM, STX, EST
10. HIT 22-30 (-17) EST, HWA, KTR
11. EST 22-31 (-11) HIT, WJN
12. ACE 9-43 (-83) STX, WEM, CJE


(other teams -- EST, HIT, ACE have virtually no way of qualifying)

Looks like we have two spots up for contention now, #5 and #6, and five teams all with a legitimate shot going into the final weeks.

+ Show Spoiler [Old Analysis] +
Analysis done on June 19
A few things come to mind, last year the playoffs featured Hite, Hwaseung, and Samsung, and all three of those teams currently are outside qualifier range. MBC, KT, and WeMade take their place. I'm especially excited about WeMade, they have some nice younger players along with some old favorites, and they should be exciting to watch in Bo7s.

Barring some monumental collapse, the only real spot in contention is #6. I pray every day that CJ can hold on.

Remaining Schedules
CJ Entus - KTR, HWA, STX, WEM, MBC, ACE
Woongjin Stars - MBC, KT, WEM, STX, EST
Samsung Khan - STX, MBC, HIT, HWA, KT, WEM
Hwaseung Oz - EST, CJ, ACE, SAM, SKT, HIT, MBC

Obviously PL is extremely difficult to predict, but let's make some assumptions! CJ is currently in the 6th spot. They have one easy match (ACE), one hard (KTR) and four 50-50s. Assuming they win at least one of those four, CJ will probably finish at worst 2-4, 28-27 (more likely 3-3, 29-26).

CJ has a worse game differential than Stars, but better than Samsung or Hwaseung. Because of this, assuming CJ goes 28-27 or better, Samsung or Hwaseung must finish 29-26 to get the last playoff spot. They both have 25 losses so it's pretty difficult to think they'd finish 5-1 or 6-1, especially considering how inconsistent their teams have been. Plus, they have KT / SKT on their schedules. Stork and Jaedong can officially start groaning now, because their teams are probably not going to qualify.

That means the race likely will come down to CJ vs Woongjin. Woongjin has a better game differential so they will only have to tie. Right now its CJ 26-23 vs Woongjin's 25-25. Woongjin will have to finish out at worst 3-2 (most likely 4-1) to tie CJ. This is a pretty close race, as many of these matches are going to ace game.

Woongjin would have had a much better chance had they not blown a 2-0 lead on Hite last week. But they still have a decent shot -- the last two weeks are going to be quite exciting if you're a CJ or Woongjin fan.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
June 19 2010 20:17 GMT
#2
CJ WILL MAKE IT NO DOUBT
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36374 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-19 20:20:03
June 19 2010 20:19 GMT
#3
On June 20 2010 05:17 Kenpachi wrote:
CJ WILL MAKE IT NO DOUBT

I hope you're right, but its still nerve wracking. It'd ruin PL playoffs for me if we didn't at least get to see one CJ Bo7. I feel CJ's lineup spots #4-6 are stronger than most other teams. We have nice racial balance (2/2/2). The format is great for us.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Rainmaker5
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States1027 Posts
June 19 2010 20:19 GMT
#4
CJ FIGHTING!
(-_(-_(-_(^_(-_(-_(-_-)_-)_-)_-)_-)_-)_-) CJ Fighting! "Beer -> soju -> whisky is a terrible build"~~ Scrarecrow.
dukethegold
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Canada5645 Posts
June 19 2010 20:25 GMT
#5
CJ can do it! I believe!
SKT better hold on to its lead. I want to see Boxer play so badly.

I am not sure about ACE being easy...their recent records have been more impressive than some may think.
Nouar
Profile Joined May 2009
France3270 Posts
June 19 2010 20:30 GMT
#6
I see a problem in your post :

HWA 23-25 with 6 matches to play > 54 matches total
CJ 26-23 with 6 to play > 55 matches total ?
KHAN > 55
Stars > 55

sup with Oz ?
NoiR
sashkata
Profile Joined September 2008
Bulgaria3241 Posts
June 19 2010 20:35 GMT
#7
I can't believe we might miss the playoffs. I was sure it was in the bag, but I BELIEVE!
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36374 Posts
June 19 2010 20:37 GMT
#8
On June 20 2010 05:30 Nouar wrote:
I see a problem in your post :

HWA 23-25 with 6 matches to play > 54 matches total
CJ 26-23 with 6 to play > 55 matches total ?
KHAN > 55
Stars > 55

sup with Oz ?

Nice catch, I forgot to include Hwaseung's last game against MBC. They should all have 55 now.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Rio
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Vietnam598 Posts
June 19 2010 20:41 GMT
#9
Go Khan
What ever ---------------------------------------------------™
monk
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States8476 Posts
June 19 2010 20:42 GMT
#10
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.
Moderator
Roffles *
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Pitcairn19291 Posts
June 19 2010 20:44 GMT
#11
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.
God Bless
NeCroPoTeNce
Profile Joined July 2009
United States513 Posts
June 19 2010 20:48 GMT
#12
Oz gogo!!!! You can do it!!!! Just don't give in to killer's big eyes for ace matches!!!!
zerg all the way! Lee Jaedong hwaiting
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36374 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-19 20:52:24
June 19 2010 20:52 GMT
#13
On June 20 2010 05:44 Roffles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.

yeah, but at least one of cj or woongjin will finish decently, and the chance that Oz finishes 6-1 or 7-0 is quite low. you have to go back six months to find a 3-game win streak for them. they are insanely inconsistent.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Roffles *
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Pitcairn19291 Posts
June 19 2010 20:56 GMT
#14
On June 20 2010 05:52 Hot_Bid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2010 05:44 Roffles wrote:
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.

yeah, but at least one of cj or woongjin will finish decently, and the chance that Oz finishes 6-1 or 7-0 is quite low. you have to go back six months to find a 3-game win streak for them. they are insanely inconsistent.

OZ won't make it (Shut it Harem), cause there's no way they go 6-1/7-0. It's possible, but as you mentioned, their team is highly inconsistent, even though they have one of the best Aces in the game. And even JD can't go undefeated in Ace matches.

Plus, I just don't think they can take MBC/SKT/Khan without losing at least 2 of those matches.
God Bless
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
June 19 2010 21:04 GMT
#15
On June 20 2010 05:56 Roffles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2010 05:52 Hot_Bid wrote:
On June 20 2010 05:44 Roffles wrote:
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.

yeah, but at least one of cj or woongjin will finish decently, and the chance that Oz finishes 6-1 or 7-0 is quite low. you have to go back six months to find a 3-game win streak for them. they are insanely inconsistent.

OZ won't make it (Shut it Harem), cause there's no way they go 6-1/7-0. It's possible, but as you mentioned, their team is highly inconsistent, even though they have one of the best Aces in the game. And even JD can't go undefeated in Ace matches.

Plus, I just don't think they can take MBC/SKT/Khan without losing at least 2 of those matches.

Actually, i think they can take Khan and MBC. Theyre just being thrown around right now.
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Weasel-
Profile Joined June 2009
Canada1556 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-19 21:12:55
June 19 2010 21:10 GMT
#16
Will they use this formula for the playoffs? Last year the winner of 3v6 played the winner of 4v5. The winner of that series played 2, and the winner of that moved on to play 1.
Delerium
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States324 Posts
June 19 2010 21:11 GMT
#17
I agree that OZ can make it. It's just going to be very hard.

The situation OZ is in, by the way, is all still fallout from last year's free agency debacle. People who blame the OZ coach are forgetting that part of the agreement for keeping Jaedong was that he not be worked to death practicing for every Ace match from here to eternity. The coach had no choice but to cultivate other players, and Hiya/Lomo/Backho were all in a slump. Killer was the only choice he had left to keep his promise. He didn't win much, but he tried. Jaedong or his parents have graciously allowed him to be used as Ace a lot since then.
Atrioc
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States1865 Posts
June 19 2010 21:20 GMT
#18
Hwaseung I believe!
This is a team that needs to make it to Playoffs - having been such a major player in them in recent proleagues it would be a huge shame to not even have them this time around.
Writerman what
IntoTheWow
Profile Blog Joined May 2004
is awesome32271 Posts
June 19 2010 21:22 GMT
#19
so close damn.

Go CJ!
Moderator<:3-/-<
Soap
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Brazil1546 Posts
June 19 2010 21:25 GMT
#20
Almost pissed myself when i saw CJ remaining schedule on calendar: KT#1, STX#2 and Wemade on fire, thank God theres only one Jaedong!

Oz schedule is amazing btw.

But I'm sure that with (Z)EffOrt well live through the (P)Snowstorm to go (T)sKyHigh like a (P)Moviestar! CJ hwaiting!
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