• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EST 04:33
CET 10:33
KST 18:33
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
TL.net Map Contest #21: Winners10Intel X Team Liquid Seoul event: Showmatches and Meet the Pros10[ASL20] Finals Preview: Arrival13TL.net Map Contest #21: Voting12[ASL20] Ro4 Preview: Descent11
Community News
StarCraft, SC2, HotS, WC3, Returning to Blizzcon!42$5,000+ WardiTV 2025 Championship7[BSL21] RO32 Group Stage4Weekly Cups (Oct 26-Nov 2): Liquid, Clem, Solar win; LAN in Philly2Weekly Cups (Oct 20-26): MaxPax, Clem, Creator win10
StarCraft 2
General
RotterdaM "Serral is the GOAT, and it's not close" Mech is the composition that needs teleportation t StarCraft, SC2, HotS, WC3, Returning to Blizzcon! TL.net Map Contest #21: Winners Weekly Cups (Oct 20-26): MaxPax, Clem, Creator win
Tourneys
Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament Constellation Cup - Main Event - Stellar Fest $5,000+ WardiTV 2025 Championship Merivale 8 Open - LAN - Stellar Fest Sea Duckling Open (Global, Bronze-Diamond)
Strategy
Custom Maps
Map Editor closed ?
External Content
Mutation # 498 Wheel of Misfortune|Cradle of Death Mutation # 497 Battle Haredened Mutation # 496 Endless Infection Mutation # 495 Rest In Peace
Brood War
General
BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ BW General Discussion Where's CardinalAllin/Jukado the mapmaker? [ASL20] Ask the mapmakers — Drop your questions [BSL21] RO32 Group Stage
Tourneys
[ASL20] Grand Finals [BSL21] RO32 Group A - Saturday 21:00 CET [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [BSL21] RO32 Group B - Sunday 21:00 CET
Strategy
Current Meta PvZ map balance How to stay on top of macro? Soma's 9 hatch build from ASL Game 2
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Path of Exile Should offensive tower rushing be viable in RTS games? Dawn of War IV
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread SPIRED by.ASL Mafia {211640}
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine YouTube Thread Dating: How's your luck?
Fan Clubs
White-Ra Fan Club The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread Movie Discussion! Korean Music Discussion Series you have seen recently...
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion NBA General Discussion MLB/Baseball 2023 TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
SC2 Client Relocalization [Change SC2 Language] Linksys AE2500 USB WIFI keeps disconnecting Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
Learning my new SC2 hotkey…
Hildegard
Coffee x Performance in Espo…
TrAiDoS
Saturation point
Uldridge
DnB/metal remix FFO Mick Go…
ImbaTosS
Reality "theory" prov…
perfectspheres
Our Last Hope in th…
KrillinFromwales
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1204 users

[PL] The Race to Qualify

Forum Index > BW General
Post a Reply
1 2 3 4 5 13 14 15 Next All
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36379 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-07-03 16:59:06
June 19 2010 20:15 GMT
#1
The final few weeks of Shinhan PL are upon us. For those unfamiliar, the top 6 make the playoffs -- the culmination of an entire year's worth of Proleague matches. The format is the 5th and 6th place teams play, the winner moves to play the 4th place team, all the way up to the grand finals. I think the playoff format is three bo7s between each of the teams, but I'm not 100% sure about that.

Regardless, the standings currently look like this:

Updated w/ July 03 results (SAM vs HWA, SKT vs KTR)
1.  KTR 36-16 (+46) SAM, MBC, HIT
2. STX 32-20 (+12) ACE, WJN, SKT
3. MBC 30-22 (+17) CJE, KTR, HWA
4. SKT 29-24 (+12) HWA, STX
5. CJE 29-24 ( +5) MBC, ACE
6. WEM 28-24 (+17) WJN, ACE, SAM
----------------------------
7. HWA 26-26 ( -1) SKT, HIT, MBC
8. SAM 26-27 (-13) KTR, WEM
9. WJN 25-27 (+10) WEM, STX, EST
10. HIT 22-30 (-17) EST, HWA, KTR
11. EST 22-31 (-11) HIT, WJN
12. ACE 9-43 (-83) STX, WEM, CJE


(other teams -- EST, HIT, ACE have virtually no way of qualifying)

Looks like we have two spots up for contention now, #5 and #6, and five teams all with a legitimate shot going into the final weeks.

+ Show Spoiler [Old Analysis] +
Analysis done on June 19
A few things come to mind, last year the playoffs featured Hite, Hwaseung, and Samsung, and all three of those teams currently are outside qualifier range. MBC, KT, and WeMade take their place. I'm especially excited about WeMade, they have some nice younger players along with some old favorites, and they should be exciting to watch in Bo7s.

Barring some monumental collapse, the only real spot in contention is #6. I pray every day that CJ can hold on.

Remaining Schedules
CJ Entus - KTR, HWA, STX, WEM, MBC, ACE
Woongjin Stars - MBC, KT, WEM, STX, EST
Samsung Khan - STX, MBC, HIT, HWA, KT, WEM
Hwaseung Oz - EST, CJ, ACE, SAM, SKT, HIT, MBC

Obviously PL is extremely difficult to predict, but let's make some assumptions! CJ is currently in the 6th spot. They have one easy match (ACE), one hard (KTR) and four 50-50s. Assuming they win at least one of those four, CJ will probably finish at worst 2-4, 28-27 (more likely 3-3, 29-26).

CJ has a worse game differential than Stars, but better than Samsung or Hwaseung. Because of this, assuming CJ goes 28-27 or better, Samsung or Hwaseung must finish 29-26 to get the last playoff spot. They both have 25 losses so it's pretty difficult to think they'd finish 5-1 or 6-1, especially considering how inconsistent their teams have been. Plus, they have KT / SKT on their schedules. Stork and Jaedong can officially start groaning now, because their teams are probably not going to qualify.

That means the race likely will come down to CJ vs Woongjin. Woongjin has a better game differential so they will only have to tie. Right now its CJ 26-23 vs Woongjin's 25-25. Woongjin will have to finish out at worst 3-2 (most likely 4-1) to tie CJ. This is a pretty close race, as many of these matches are going to ace game.

Woongjin would have had a much better chance had they not blown a 2-0 lead on Hite last week. But they still have a decent shot -- the last two weeks are going to be quite exciting if you're a CJ or Woongjin fan.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
June 19 2010 20:17 GMT
#2
CJ WILL MAKE IT NO DOUBT
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36379 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-19 20:20:03
June 19 2010 20:19 GMT
#3
On June 20 2010 05:17 Kenpachi wrote:
CJ WILL MAKE IT NO DOUBT

I hope you're right, but its still nerve wracking. It'd ruin PL playoffs for me if we didn't at least get to see one CJ Bo7. I feel CJ's lineup spots #4-6 are stronger than most other teams. We have nice racial balance (2/2/2). The format is great for us.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Rainmaker5
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States1027 Posts
June 19 2010 20:19 GMT
#4
CJ FIGHTING!
(-_(-_(-_(^_(-_(-_(-_-)_-)_-)_-)_-)_-)_-) CJ Fighting! "Beer -> soju -> whisky is a terrible build"~~ Scrarecrow.
dukethegold
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Canada5645 Posts
June 19 2010 20:25 GMT
#5
CJ can do it! I believe!
SKT better hold on to its lead. I want to see Boxer play so badly.

I am not sure about ACE being easy...their recent records have been more impressive than some may think.
Nouar
Profile Joined May 2009
France3270 Posts
June 19 2010 20:30 GMT
#6
I see a problem in your post :

HWA 23-25 with 6 matches to play > 54 matches total
CJ 26-23 with 6 to play > 55 matches total ?
KHAN > 55
Stars > 55

sup with Oz ?
NoiR
sashkata
Profile Joined September 2008
Bulgaria3241 Posts
June 19 2010 20:35 GMT
#7
I can't believe we might miss the playoffs. I was sure it was in the bag, but I BELIEVE!
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36379 Posts
June 19 2010 20:37 GMT
#8
On June 20 2010 05:30 Nouar wrote:
I see a problem in your post :

HWA 23-25 with 6 matches to play > 54 matches total
CJ 26-23 with 6 to play > 55 matches total ?
KHAN > 55
Stars > 55

sup with Oz ?

Nice catch, I forgot to include Hwaseung's last game against MBC. They should all have 55 now.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Rio
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Vietnam598 Posts
June 19 2010 20:41 GMT
#9
Go Khan
What ever ---------------------------------------------------™
monk
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States8476 Posts
June 19 2010 20:42 GMT
#10
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.
Moderator
Roffles *
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Pitcairn19291 Posts
June 19 2010 20:44 GMT
#11
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.
God Bless
NeCroPoTeNce
Profile Joined July 2009
United States513 Posts
June 19 2010 20:48 GMT
#12
Oz gogo!!!! You can do it!!!! Just don't give in to killer's big eyes for ace matches!!!!
zerg all the way! Lee Jaedong hwaiting
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36379 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-19 20:52:24
June 19 2010 20:52 GMT
#13
On June 20 2010 05:44 Roffles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.

yeah, but at least one of cj or woongjin will finish decently, and the chance that Oz finishes 6-1 or 7-0 is quite low. you have to go back six months to find a 3-game win streak for them. they are insanely inconsistent.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Roffles *
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Pitcairn19291 Posts
June 19 2010 20:56 GMT
#14
On June 20 2010 05:52 Hot_Bid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2010 05:44 Roffles wrote:
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.

yeah, but at least one of cj or woongjin will finish decently, and the chance that Oz finishes 6-1 or 7-0 is quite low. you have to go back six months to find a 3-game win streak for them. they are insanely inconsistent.

OZ won't make it (Shut it Harem), cause there's no way they go 6-1/7-0. It's possible, but as you mentioned, their team is highly inconsistent, even though they have one of the best Aces in the game. And even JD can't go undefeated in Ace matches.

Plus, I just don't think they can take MBC/SKT/Khan without losing at least 2 of those matches.
God Bless
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
June 19 2010 21:04 GMT
#15
On June 20 2010 05:56 Roffles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2010 05:52 Hot_Bid wrote:
On June 20 2010 05:44 Roffles wrote:
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.

yeah, but at least one of cj or woongjin will finish decently, and the chance that Oz finishes 6-1 or 7-0 is quite low. you have to go back six months to find a 3-game win streak for them. they are insanely inconsistent.

OZ won't make it (Shut it Harem), cause there's no way they go 6-1/7-0. It's possible, but as you mentioned, their team is highly inconsistent, even though they have one of the best Aces in the game. And even JD can't go undefeated in Ace matches.

Plus, I just don't think they can take MBC/SKT/Khan without losing at least 2 of those matches.

Actually, i think they can take Khan and MBC. Theyre just being thrown around right now.
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Weasel-
Profile Joined June 2009
Canada1556 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-19 21:12:55
June 19 2010 21:10 GMT
#16
Will they use this formula for the playoffs? Last year the winner of 3v6 played the winner of 4v5. The winner of that series played 2, and the winner of that moved on to play 1.
Delerium
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States324 Posts
June 19 2010 21:11 GMT
#17
I agree that OZ can make it. It's just going to be very hard.

The situation OZ is in, by the way, is all still fallout from last year's free agency debacle. People who blame the OZ coach are forgetting that part of the agreement for keeping Jaedong was that he not be worked to death practicing for every Ace match from here to eternity. The coach had no choice but to cultivate other players, and Hiya/Lomo/Backho were all in a slump. Killer was the only choice he had left to keep his promise. He didn't win much, but he tried. Jaedong or his parents have graciously allowed him to be used as Ace a lot since then.
Atrioc
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States1865 Posts
June 19 2010 21:20 GMT
#18
Hwaseung I believe!
This is a team that needs to make it to Playoffs - having been such a major player in them in recent proleagues it would be a huge shame to not even have them this time around.
Writerman what
IntoTheWow
Profile Blog Joined May 2004
is awesome32277 Posts
June 19 2010 21:22 GMT
#19
so close damn.

Go CJ!
Moderator<:3-/-<
Soap
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Brazil1546 Posts
June 19 2010 21:25 GMT
#20
Almost pissed myself when i saw CJ remaining schedule on calendar: KT#1, STX#2 and Wemade on fire, thank God theres only one Jaedong!

Oz schedule is amazing btw.

But I'm sure that with (Z)EffOrt well live through the (P)Snowstorm to go (T)sKyHigh like a (P)Moviestar! CJ hwaiting!
1 2 3 4 5 13 14 15 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 27m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
BRAT_OK 9
StarCraft: Brood War
firebathero 1430
Larva 495
actioN 295
Soma 153
hero 118
Sharp 114
PianO 92
Pusan 82
Barracks 65
NotJumperer 22
[ Show more ]
Noble 15
scan(afreeca) 12
Mind 7
Terrorterran 5
Dota 2
Gorgc4449
League of Legends
JimRising 1011
Counter-Strike
fl0m2552
Stewie2K750
zeus142
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor142
Other Games
summit1g16700
Happy363
XaKoH 127
goatrope49
Organizations
Counter-Strike
PGL101
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 15 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Berry_CruncH195
• LUISG 28
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• lizZardDota249
League of Legends
• Jankos3027
• Lourlo2566
Upcoming Events
Sparkling Tuna Cup
27m
WardiTV Korean Royale
2h 27m
LAN Event
5h 27m
ByuN vs Zoun
TBD vs TriGGeR
Clem vs TBD
IPSL
8h 27m
JDConan vs WIZARD
WolFix vs Cross
BSL 21
10h 27m
spx vs rasowy
HBO vs KameZerg
Cross vs Razz
dxtr13 vs ZZZero
Replay Cast
23h 27m
Wardi Open
1d 2h
WardiTV Korean Royale
2 days
Replay Cast
2 days
Kung Fu Cup
3 days
Classic vs Solar
herO vs Cure
Reynor vs GuMiho
ByuN vs ShoWTimE
[ Show More ]
Tenacious Turtle Tussle
3 days
The PondCast
4 days
RSL Revival
4 days
Solar vs Zoun
MaxPax vs Bunny
Kung Fu Cup
4 days
WardiTV Korean Royale
4 days
RSL Revival
5 days
Classic vs Creator
Cure vs TriGGeR
Kung Fu Cup
5 days
CranKy Ducklings
6 days
RSL Revival
6 days
herO vs Gerald
ByuN vs SHIN
Kung Fu Cup
6 days
BSL 21
6 days
Tarson vs Julia
Doodle vs OldBoy
eOnzErG vs WolFix
StRyKeR vs Aeternum
Liquipedia Results

Completed

BSL 21 Points
SC4ALL: StarCraft II
Eternal Conflict S1

Ongoing

C-Race Season 1
IPSL Winter 2025-26
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 4
SOOP Univ League 2025
YSL S2
BSL Season 21
Stellar Fest: Constellation Cup
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Thunderpick World Champ.
CS Asia Championships 2025
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual

Upcoming

SLON Tour Season 2
BSL 21 Non-Korean Championship
Acropolis #4
IPSL Spring 2026
HSC XXVIII
RSL Offline Finals
WardiTV 2025
RSL Revival: Season 3
META Madness #9
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026: Closed Qualifier
eXTREMESLAND 2025
ESL Impact League Season 8
SL Budapest Major 2025
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.