• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 16:51
CEST 22:51
KST 05:51
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Team TLMC #5 - Finalists & Open Tournaments0[ASL20] Ro16 Preview Pt2: Turbulence10Classic Games #3: Rogue vs Serral at BlizzCon9[ASL20] Ro16 Preview Pt1: Ascent10Maestros of the Game: Week 1/Play-in Preview12
Community News
BSL 2025 Warsaw LAN + Legends Showmatch0Weekly Cups (Sept 8-14): herO & MaxPax split cups4WardiTV TL Team Map Contest #5 Tournaments1SC4ALL $6,000 Open LAN in Philadelphia8Weekly Cups (Sept 1-7): MaxPax rebounds & Clem saga continues29
StarCraft 2
General
StarCraft II 5.0.15 PTR Patch Notes #1: Maru - Greatest Players of All Time Weekly Cups (Sept 8-14): herO & MaxPax split cups Team Liquid Map Contest #21 - Presented by Monster Energy SpeCial on The Tasteless Podcast
Tourneys
SC2's Safe House 2 - October 18 & 19 RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series Maestros of The Game—$20k event w/ live finals in Paris Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament SC4ALL $6,000 Open LAN in Philadelphia
Strategy
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 491 Night Drive Mutation # 490 Masters of Midnight Mutation # 489 Bannable Offense Mutation # 488 What Goes Around
Brood War
General
ASL20 General Discussion Soulkey on ASL S20 BW General Discussion ASL TICKET LIVE help! :D NaDa's Body
Tourneys
[ASL20] Ro16 Group C Small VOD Thread 2.0 [ASL20] Ro16 Group D [Megathread] Daily Proleagues
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Muta micro map competition Fighting Spirit mining rates [G] Mineral Boosting
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Borderlands 3 Path of Exile Nintendo Switch Thread General RTS Discussion Thread
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion LiquidDota to reintegrate into TL.net
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine UK Politics Mega-thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
The Happy Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Linksys AE2500 USB WIFI keeps disconnecting Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread High temperatures on bridge(s)
TL Community
BarCraft in Tokyo Japan for ASL Season5 Final The Automated Ban List
Blogs
i'm really bored guys
Peanutsc
I <=> 9
KrillinFromwales
The Personality of a Spender…
TrAiDoS
A very expensive lesson on ma…
Garnet
hello world
radishsoup
Lemme tell you a thing o…
JoinTheRain
RTS Design in Hypercoven
a11
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1648 users

[PL] The Race to Qualify

Forum Index > BW General
Post a Reply
1 2 3 4 5 13 14 15 Next All
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36375 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-07-03 16:59:06
June 19 2010 20:15 GMT
#1
The final few weeks of Shinhan PL are upon us. For those unfamiliar, the top 6 make the playoffs -- the culmination of an entire year's worth of Proleague matches. The format is the 5th and 6th place teams play, the winner moves to play the 4th place team, all the way up to the grand finals. I think the playoff format is three bo7s between each of the teams, but I'm not 100% sure about that.

Regardless, the standings currently look like this:

Updated w/ July 03 results (SAM vs HWA, SKT vs KTR)
1.  KTR 36-16 (+46) SAM, MBC, HIT
2. STX 32-20 (+12) ACE, WJN, SKT
3. MBC 30-22 (+17) CJE, KTR, HWA
4. SKT 29-24 (+12) HWA, STX
5. CJE 29-24 ( +5) MBC, ACE
6. WEM 28-24 (+17) WJN, ACE, SAM
----------------------------
7. HWA 26-26 ( -1) SKT, HIT, MBC
8. SAM 26-27 (-13) KTR, WEM
9. WJN 25-27 (+10) WEM, STX, EST
10. HIT 22-30 (-17) EST, HWA, KTR
11. EST 22-31 (-11) HIT, WJN
12. ACE 9-43 (-83) STX, WEM, CJE


(other teams -- EST, HIT, ACE have virtually no way of qualifying)

Looks like we have two spots up for contention now, #5 and #6, and five teams all with a legitimate shot going into the final weeks.

+ Show Spoiler [Old Analysis] +
Analysis done on June 19
A few things come to mind, last year the playoffs featured Hite, Hwaseung, and Samsung, and all three of those teams currently are outside qualifier range. MBC, KT, and WeMade take their place. I'm especially excited about WeMade, they have some nice younger players along with some old favorites, and they should be exciting to watch in Bo7s.

Barring some monumental collapse, the only real spot in contention is #6. I pray every day that CJ can hold on.

Remaining Schedules
CJ Entus - KTR, HWA, STX, WEM, MBC, ACE
Woongjin Stars - MBC, KT, WEM, STX, EST
Samsung Khan - STX, MBC, HIT, HWA, KT, WEM
Hwaseung Oz - EST, CJ, ACE, SAM, SKT, HIT, MBC

Obviously PL is extremely difficult to predict, but let's make some assumptions! CJ is currently in the 6th spot. They have one easy match (ACE), one hard (KTR) and four 50-50s. Assuming they win at least one of those four, CJ will probably finish at worst 2-4, 28-27 (more likely 3-3, 29-26).

CJ has a worse game differential than Stars, but better than Samsung or Hwaseung. Because of this, assuming CJ goes 28-27 or better, Samsung or Hwaseung must finish 29-26 to get the last playoff spot. They both have 25 losses so it's pretty difficult to think they'd finish 5-1 or 6-1, especially considering how inconsistent their teams have been. Plus, they have KT / SKT on their schedules. Stork and Jaedong can officially start groaning now, because their teams are probably not going to qualify.

That means the race likely will come down to CJ vs Woongjin. Woongjin has a better game differential so they will only have to tie. Right now its CJ 26-23 vs Woongjin's 25-25. Woongjin will have to finish out at worst 3-2 (most likely 4-1) to tie CJ. This is a pretty close race, as many of these matches are going to ace game.

Woongjin would have had a much better chance had they not blown a 2-0 lead on Hite last week. But they still have a decent shot -- the last two weeks are going to be quite exciting if you're a CJ or Woongjin fan.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
June 19 2010 20:17 GMT
#2
CJ WILL MAKE IT NO DOUBT
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36375 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-19 20:20:03
June 19 2010 20:19 GMT
#3
On June 20 2010 05:17 Kenpachi wrote:
CJ WILL MAKE IT NO DOUBT

I hope you're right, but its still nerve wracking. It'd ruin PL playoffs for me if we didn't at least get to see one CJ Bo7. I feel CJ's lineup spots #4-6 are stronger than most other teams. We have nice racial balance (2/2/2). The format is great for us.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Rainmaker5
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States1027 Posts
June 19 2010 20:19 GMT
#4
CJ FIGHTING!
(-_(-_(-_(^_(-_(-_(-_-)_-)_-)_-)_-)_-)_-) CJ Fighting! "Beer -> soju -> whisky is a terrible build"~~ Scrarecrow.
dukethegold
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Canada5645 Posts
June 19 2010 20:25 GMT
#5
CJ can do it! I believe!
SKT better hold on to its lead. I want to see Boxer play so badly.

I am not sure about ACE being easy...their recent records have been more impressive than some may think.
Nouar
Profile Joined May 2009
France3270 Posts
June 19 2010 20:30 GMT
#6
I see a problem in your post :

HWA 23-25 with 6 matches to play > 54 matches total
CJ 26-23 with 6 to play > 55 matches total ?
KHAN > 55
Stars > 55

sup with Oz ?
NoiR
sashkata
Profile Joined September 2008
Bulgaria3241 Posts
June 19 2010 20:35 GMT
#7
I can't believe we might miss the playoffs. I was sure it was in the bag, but I BELIEVE!
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36375 Posts
June 19 2010 20:37 GMT
#8
On June 20 2010 05:30 Nouar wrote:
I see a problem in your post :

HWA 23-25 with 6 matches to play > 54 matches total
CJ 26-23 with 6 to play > 55 matches total ?
KHAN > 55
Stars > 55

sup with Oz ?

Nice catch, I forgot to include Hwaseung's last game against MBC. They should all have 55 now.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Rio
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Vietnam598 Posts
June 19 2010 20:41 GMT
#9
Go Khan
What ever ---------------------------------------------------™
monk
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States8476 Posts
June 19 2010 20:42 GMT
#10
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.
Moderator
Roffles *
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Pitcairn19291 Posts
June 19 2010 20:44 GMT
#11
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.
God Bless
NeCroPoTeNce
Profile Joined July 2009
United States513 Posts
June 19 2010 20:48 GMT
#12
Oz gogo!!!! You can do it!!!! Just don't give in to killer's big eyes for ace matches!!!!
zerg all the way! Lee Jaedong hwaiting
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36375 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-19 20:52:24
June 19 2010 20:52 GMT
#13
On June 20 2010 05:44 Roffles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.

yeah, but at least one of cj or woongjin will finish decently, and the chance that Oz finishes 6-1 or 7-0 is quite low. you have to go back six months to find a 3-game win streak for them. they are insanely inconsistent.
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Roffles *
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Pitcairn19291 Posts
June 19 2010 20:56 GMT
#14
On June 20 2010 05:52 Hot_Bid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2010 05:44 Roffles wrote:
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.

yeah, but at least one of cj or woongjin will finish decently, and the chance that Oz finishes 6-1 or 7-0 is quite low. you have to go back six months to find a 3-game win streak for them. they are insanely inconsistent.

OZ won't make it (Shut it Harem), cause there's no way they go 6-1/7-0. It's possible, but as you mentioned, their team is highly inconsistent, even though they have one of the best Aces in the game. And even JD can't go undefeated in Ace matches.

Plus, I just don't think they can take MBC/SKT/Khan without losing at least 2 of those matches.
God Bless
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
June 19 2010 21:04 GMT
#15
On June 20 2010 05:56 Roffles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2010 05:52 Hot_Bid wrote:
On June 20 2010 05:44 Roffles wrote:
On June 20 2010 05:42 4kmonk wrote:
Although Oz probably won't go 5-1 or 6-0, it's interesting to note that they have one of the easiest schedules possible. None of the teams they're facing are top 4.

It's not all that impossible. As long as they have Jaedong on their team, they have a legitimate shot to win every match. As long as someone else can fill in the void (Hopefully Hiya), they should have a decent chance to win every match.

yeah, but at least one of cj or woongjin will finish decently, and the chance that Oz finishes 6-1 or 7-0 is quite low. you have to go back six months to find a 3-game win streak for them. they are insanely inconsistent.

OZ won't make it (Shut it Harem), cause there's no way they go 6-1/7-0. It's possible, but as you mentioned, their team is highly inconsistent, even though they have one of the best Aces in the game. And even JD can't go undefeated in Ace matches.

Plus, I just don't think they can take MBC/SKT/Khan without losing at least 2 of those matches.

Actually, i think they can take Khan and MBC. Theyre just being thrown around right now.
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Weasel-
Profile Joined June 2009
Canada1556 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-19 21:12:55
June 19 2010 21:10 GMT
#16
Will they use this formula for the playoffs? Last year the winner of 3v6 played the winner of 4v5. The winner of that series played 2, and the winner of that moved on to play 1.
Delerium
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States324 Posts
June 19 2010 21:11 GMT
#17
I agree that OZ can make it. It's just going to be very hard.

The situation OZ is in, by the way, is all still fallout from last year's free agency debacle. People who blame the OZ coach are forgetting that part of the agreement for keeping Jaedong was that he not be worked to death practicing for every Ace match from here to eternity. The coach had no choice but to cultivate other players, and Hiya/Lomo/Backho were all in a slump. Killer was the only choice he had left to keep his promise. He didn't win much, but he tried. Jaedong or his parents have graciously allowed him to be used as Ace a lot since then.
Atrioc
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States1865 Posts
June 19 2010 21:20 GMT
#18
Hwaseung I believe!
This is a team that needs to make it to Playoffs - having been such a major player in them in recent proleagues it would be a huge shame to not even have them this time around.
Writerman what
IntoTheWow
Profile Blog Joined May 2004
is awesome32275 Posts
June 19 2010 21:22 GMT
#19
so close damn.

Go CJ!
Moderator<:3-/-<
Soap
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Brazil1546 Posts
June 19 2010 21:25 GMT
#20
Almost pissed myself when i saw CJ remaining schedule on calendar: KT#1, STX#2 and Wemade on fire, thank God theres only one Jaedong!

Oz schedule is amazing btw.

But I'm sure that with (Z)EffOrt well live through the (P)Snowstorm to go (T)sKyHigh like a (P)Moviestar! CJ hwaiting!
1 2 3 4 5 13 14 15 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 13h 9m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
mouzHeroMarine 500
UpATreeSC 222
SteadfastSC 189
NeuroSwarm 151
IndyStarCraft 133
ForJumy 21
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 15936
Dewaltoss 155
Shuttle 152
Larva 63
Aegong 29
Sexy 24
Dota 2
Fuzer 196
Counter-Strike
flusha275
Stewie2K163
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King48
Heroes of the Storm
Liquid`Hasu520
Other Games
summit1g4882
FrodaN1479
Sick1182
fl0m850
mouzStarbuck286
ToD260
C9.Mang0162
Trikslyr41
PPMD34
Organizations
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 19 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• davetesta23
• Reevou 4
• Kozan
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• Migwel
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• intothetv
• IndyKCrew
StarCraft: Brood War
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• C_a_k_e 4935
• Noizen30
League of Legends
• Doublelift4093
• TFBlade621
Other Games
• imaqtpie870
• WagamamaTV420
• Shiphtur273
Upcoming Events
RSL Revival
13h 9m
Zoun vs Classic
Map Test Tournament
14h 9m
Korean StarCraft League
1d 6h
BSL Open LAN 2025 - War…
1d 11h
RSL Revival
1d 13h
Reynor vs Cure
BSL Open LAN 2025 - War…
2 days
RSL Revival
2 days
Online Event
2 days
Wardi Open
3 days
Monday Night Weeklies
3 days
[ Show More ]
Sparkling Tuna Cup
4 days
LiuLi Cup
5 days
The PondCast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2025-09-10
Chzzk MurlocKing SC1 vs SC2 Cup #2
HCC Europe

Ongoing

BSL 20 Team Wars
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 3
BSL 21 Points
ASL Season 20
CSL 2025 AUTUMN (S18)
LASL Season 20
RSL Revival: Season 2
Maestros of the Game
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1

Upcoming

2025 Chongqing Offline CUP
BSL World Championship of Poland 2025
IPSL Winter 2025-26
BSL Season 21
SC4ALL: Brood War
BSL 21 Team A
Stellar Fest
SC4ALL: StarCraft II
EC S1
ESL Impact League Season 8
SL Budapest Major 2025
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Thunderpick World Champ.
CS Asia Championships 2025
ESL Pro League S22
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.