EPTlike in the cj/stars thread, u can find that the zero vs iris gives iris a 55% winning rate. which is absolute bs if you take their recent games into account. zero loses to FLASH, iris loses to saint/hyvaa
TLOdds - Odds information on TL posts - Page 2
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seRapH
United States9830 Posts
like in the cj/stars thread, u can find that the zero vs iris gives iris a 55% winning rate. which is absolute bs if you take their recent games into account. zero loses to FLASH, iris loses to saint/hyvaa | ||
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oberon
United States1320 Posts
On January 03 2010 02:09 majesty.k)seRapH wrote: this really shouldn't be using lifetime records imo like in the cj/stars thread, u can find that the zero vs iris gives iris a 55% winning rate. which is absolute bs if you take their recent games into account. zero loses to FLASH, iris loses to saint/hyvaa Counting every game someone has ever played equally is an (obvious) weakness, but I was just trying to get SOMETHING working. The problem is that the TLPD page for players lists only their most recent 10 games for each matchup, which is too small a sample size. Even then, that doesn't include opponent adjustment. ELO helps somewhat with all of this, but it's not a perfect answer, either. To some extent, it's hard to provide really good predictive stats while working outside the server, as GM scripts must. Even given all this, however, if you look at results threads (where you can quickly compare predictions with actual results), you'll find that the odds are usually pretty accurate. I'm not saying the numbers are perfect, but they're definitely not worthless. --oberon | ||
Empyrean
17083 Posts
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oberon
United States1320 Posts
-Fixed a bug wherein the wrong racial matchup would be used from map data, making all map-based numbers wrong. -Added ELO support The ELO support was a bit of a nightmare, but it's certainly a more sound measure of ability than simply historical win/loss record (though the two strongly correlate). I may need to find some way to cut down on the table size soon -- 5 rows isn't small. --oberon | ||
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