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TLOdds - Odds information on TL posts

Forum Index > BW General
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1 2 Next All
pangshai
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
Chinatown5333 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-12-30 06:30:30
December 30 2009 06:29 GMT
#1
I'm creating this thread for oberon who is new and unable to make threads. He has created a GreaseMonkey (FireFox plugin) script that adds odds information to TL posts. It's not perfect (doesn't find every matchup), but it's not bad (gives odds both including and excluding players' races, only shows up on mouse-over of a matchup). Here are a couple screenshots (including Stork/Effort from the last proleague thread):

[image loading]


It is hosted at http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/65257

Discuss/show your love/appreciation here. oberon will also be happy to answer any questions.
#1 midas fan
jalstar
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States8198 Posts
December 30 2009 06:31 GMT
#2
I've been doing something similar for proleague matches, but using Excel. Check the recent liquibet threads.
Empyrean
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
17053 Posts
December 30 2009 06:33 GMT
#3
Is it weighted considering ELO? Also, is it weighted based on historic data (recent games have more weight than older ones)? If so, how is it weighted? (moving average, exponential smoothing, etc.)
Moderator
jalstar
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States8198 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-12-30 06:34:40
December 30 2009 06:33 GMT
#4
(Z)Shine vs (P)Bisu on Fighting Spirit
(Z)Shine vs (P)Bisu on Match Point

doesn't take the map into consideration
bluemanrocks
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States304 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-12-30 07:24:13
December 30 2009 06:40 GMT
#5
well this SOUNDS awesome, albeit like some people have already mentioned not complete (still good for generalization!!), but im woefully incompetent and cant seem to get it to work, despite having installed the greasemonkey plugin and this script itself. any help?? =/

EDIT: doh! you just scroll over it..... what a doofus i am!
I AM THE THIRD GATE GUARDIAN
ghermination
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
United States2851 Posts
December 30 2009 06:43 GMT
#6
I really like this, and i'm going to use it, but i wonder if you could add a "map" function that found the win percentages on the map.
U Gotta Skate.
Empyrean
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
17053 Posts
December 30 2009 06:44 GMT
#7
On December 30 2009 15:43 ghermination wrote:
I really like this, and i'm going to use it, but i wonder if you could add a "map" function that found the win percentages on the map.


Actually, this would somewhat address the problem of weighting by time.
Moderator
ghostWriter
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States3302 Posts
December 30 2009 07:18 GMT
#8
This is interesting, but I doubt that I'd use it.
Sullifam
cgrinker
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States3824 Posts
December 30 2009 07:42 GMT
#9
That's pretty bitchin.
oberon
Profile Joined May 2009
United States1320 Posts
December 30 2009 15:09 GMT
#10
I've thought about including map information for race win %...but I'm not sure how yet. The log5 formula doesn't really allow for it. I'll take a look at how people combine HFA with log5 for other sports and see if that provides any interesting information.

All odds are calculated based on lifetime record. ELO is not considered. Opponent strength is not considered. How recent games are is not considered. Player record on individual maps is not considered. None of these are bad ideas -- it's just that I'm getting all the data by parsing TLPD HTML, which is a pain. ELO should be relatively easy to pick out. If I have the time/energy to parse the full game log, instead of just the front page win %s, I could do recentness. Opponent strength is trickier. Player record on individual maps is (probably) worthless -- the sample size is tiny. Going 4-1 on a map is a lot less informative than going 70-30 vs. Zergs over a career.

The next version will have a menu option that allows you to choose between BO1/3/5/7. I'll replace the "Win Chance" text with what the current mode is (e.g. "Best of 3"). The method for calculating the odds is already in the plugin -- just need to hook it up to the UI.

Other feature requests welcome.

--oberon
MasterReY
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Germany2708 Posts
December 30 2009 15:29 GMT
#11
Imho you should consider the overall racial stats on a map and not just the player stats on a map (like you mentioned: 4-1 on a map).
https://www.twitch.tv/MasterReY/ ~ Biggest Reach fan on TL.net (Don't even dare to mention LR now) ~ R.I.P Violet ~ Developer of SCRChart
TL+ Member
oberon
Profile Joined May 2009
United States1320 Posts
December 30 2009 21:37 GMT
#12
On December 31 2009 00:29 MasterReY wrote:
Imho you should consider the overall racial stats on a map and not just the player stats on a map (like you mentioned: 4-1 on a map).


Totally agree. As I mentioned, I wanna see how other people combine home field advantage info with log5 predictions, since HFA is a known percentage advantage (just like map racial advantage). That's what I was getting at in my first paragraph -- sorry if it was unclear.

Unfortunately, I had my wisdom teeth out a few hours ago. It's really hard to code (or focus on anything, really) when leaning forward causes blood to dribble out of one side of your mouth. I'm hoping to shake that off and get the next version of this up this weekend.

--oberon
Heyoka
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Katowice25012 Posts
December 30 2009 22:15 GMT
#13
This is fun stuff!
@RealHeyoka | ESL / DreamHack StarCraft Lead
Kinky
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
United States4126 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-12-31 01:53:41
December 31 2009 01:52 GMT
#14
Installing it now
Though I'm curious as to what formula it uses. Is it the one that was posted a while ago using the player's last 10 and historical stats?

And what's the difference between generic and racial?
oberon
Profile Joined May 2009
United States1320 Posts
December 31 2009 04:31 GMT
#15
I've updated the plugin to include map stats (per my discussion with MasterReY, above). I've further updated the plugin's page to hopefully be more informative about both what is being displayed, and how it is being calculated.

--oberon
oberon
Profile Joined May 2009
United States1320 Posts
December 31 2009 06:31 GMT
#16
If anyone knows (and is willing to share) which ELO formula is used in TLPD, I'd greatly appreciate it. My guess is that it's 1/(1+10^((Rating - OppRating)/400)), but I can't find confirmation anywhere. Knowing that would let me include ELO-based percentages in the table.

--oberon
oberon
Profile Joined May 2009
United States1320 Posts
January 02 2010 05:42 GMT
#17
Updated to fix the map bias calculation, which is now (correctly) non-linear. I've started looking into ELO, but getting it out of TLPD is a huge pain, so it may take some time.

--oberon
Un Gato
Profile Joined July 2009
United States123 Posts
January 02 2010 10:27 GMT
#18
Programming this with blood dripping from your mouth? Damn, you are hardcore. Useful, but in a slightly crazy way.
: P
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
oberon
Profile Joined May 2009
United States1320 Posts
January 02 2010 16:57 GMT
#19
On January 02 2010 19:27 Un Gato wrote:
Programming this with blood dripping from your mouth? Damn, you are hardcore. Useful, but in a slightly crazy way.
: P


Actually, things just healed a lot faster than expected...but I like your version better.

--oberon
hyst.eric.al
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States2332 Posts
January 02 2010 17:02 GMT
#20
this is pretty crazy

too bad i use chrome
Leta , BeSt, Calm fan forever! 김정우, I am sorry I ever lost faith in you.
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