• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 20:26
CEST 02:26
KST 09:26
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL21] Ro24 Preview Pt2: News Flash9[ASL21] Ro24 Preview Pt1: New Chaos0Team Liquid Map Contest #22 - Presented by Monster Energy16ByuL: The Forgotten Master of ZvT30Behind the Blue - Team Liquid History Book20
Community News
Weekly Cups (March 23-29): herO takes triple6Aligulac acquired by REPLAYMAN.com/Stego Research8Weekly Cups (March 16-22): herO doubles, Cure surprises3Blizzard Classic Cup @ BlizzCon 2026 - $100k prize pool51Weekly Cups (March 9-15): herO, Clem, ByuN win4
StarCraft 2
General
Blizzard Classic Cup @ BlizzCon 2026 - $100k prize pool What mix of new & old maps do you want in the next ladder pool? (SC2) Team Liquid Map Contest #22 - Presented by Monster Energy Aligulac acquired by REPLAYMAN.com/Stego Research Weekly Cups (March 23-29): herO takes triple
Tourneys
RSL Season 4 announced for March-April Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament StarCraft Evolution League (SC Evo Biweekly) WardiTV Mondays World University TeamLeague (500$+) | Signups Open
Strategy
Custom Maps
[M] (2) Frigid Storage Publishing has been re-enabled! [Feb 24th 2026]
External Content
Mutation # 519 Inner Power The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 518 Radiation Zone Mutation # 517 Distant Threat
Brood War
General
Gypsy to Korea Pros React To: JaeDong vs Queen BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ How Can I Add Timer & APM Count? [ASL21] Ro24 Preview Pt2: News Flash
Tourneys
[ASL21] Ro24 Group E [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL21] Ro24 Group F Azhi's Colosseum - Foreign KCM
Strategy
Fighting Spirit mining rates What's the deal with APM & what's its true value Simple Questions, Simple Answers
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Starcraft Tabletop Miniature Game General RTS Discussion Thread Darkest Dungeon
Dota 2
The Story of Wings Gaming Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
G2 just beat GenG in First stand
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas TL Mafia Community Thread Five o'clock TL Mafia
Community
General
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread US Politics Mega-thread NASA and the Private Sector Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Canadian Politics Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
The IdrA Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books [Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion!
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion Cricket [SPORT] Tokyo Olympics 2021 Thread General nutrition recommendations
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
[G] How to Block Livestream Ads
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Funny Nicknames
LUCKY_NOOB
Money Laundering In Video Ga…
TrAiDoS
Iranian anarchists: organize…
XenOsky
FS++
Kraekkling
Shocked by a laser…
Spydermine0240
ASL S21 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1523 users

My Odds Formula

Blogs > 3 Lions
Post a Reply
3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-10-20 01:46:40
October 20 2008 01:42 GMT
#1
It's not so good...I just made it up one day because I was done with all my hw and had nothing to do. I can't figure out a way to describe it...so I'll explain by giving an example.

(P)Bisu vs (Z)by.hero

(P)Bisu
PvZ(all-time): 39-24
vs (Z)by.hero: 0-0
on Colosseum II (Stats from Colosseum I included): 2-2
Last 10: 7-3
Last 10 PvZ: 5-5
Bonus?: +3%

(Z)by.hero
ZvP(all-time): 0-2
vs (P)Bisu: 0-0
on Colosseum II (Stats from Colosseum I included): 0-0
Last 10: 1-3
Last 10 ZvP: 0-2
Bonus?: None

Colosseum II(Stats from Colosseum I included): Z 7-3 P

Total: (39+0+2+7+5+2+0+0+3+2)/(24+2+3+5+0+0+0+1+0+3+7)+(39+0+2+7+5+2+0+0+3+2+3)= .63

So, (P)Bisu 58%-42% (Z)by.hero...BUT there is a bonus for (P)Bisu because he is on my personal monthly powerank in the 8th spot, so 11-8=3. He gets a bonus of 3%.

(P)Bisu 61%-39% (Z)by.hero

If you want another example I'll provide one. But don't expect it to come immediately, I'm watching a baseball game.

edit: oops messed up something in the equation, fixed

*
ulszz
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
Jamaica1787 Posts
October 20 2008 02:04 GMT
#2
it in a program or u calc by hand?
everliving, everfaithful, eversure
3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
October 20 2008 02:04 GMT
#3
I calc by hand
alphafuzard
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States1610 Posts
October 20 2008 02:20 GMT
#4
heh, you should make a program and mass a bunch of data to see if this legit
seems kinda interesting, and makes for precise liquibetting
more weight
thunk
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States6233 Posts
October 20 2008 02:42 GMT
#5
The power ranking probably helps a lot. Like a lot a lot.
Every time Jung Myung Hoon builds a vulture, two probes die. || My post count was a palindrome and I was never posting again.
ish0wstopper
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Korea (South)342 Posts
October 20 2008 02:51 GMT
#6
thats interesting but it doesnt take into account that bisu was once a monster and is still a solid player while by.hero is still nobody.

also, the quality of opponents should matter as well but that would get even more complicated so i can see why you wouldnt go in so deeply

but its funny that you dont pull numbers completely out of your ass, which is what i thought u did

especially when u said fbh 49 tempest 51 but u thought fbh was gonna win
ish0wstopper effect
thunk
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States6233 Posts
October 20 2008 03:10 GMT
#7
On October 20 2008 11:51 ish0wstopper wrote:
thats interesting but it doesnt take into account that bisu was once a monster and is still a solid player while by.hero is still nobody.

also, the quality of opponents should matter as well but that would get even more complicated so i can see why you wouldnt go in so deeply

but its funny that you dont pull numbers completely out of your ass, which is what i thought u did

especially when u said fbh 49 tempest 51 but u thought fbh was gonna win


I think he does account for it with his own personal power rank, lifetime stats, and the last 10 games in that MU. Those three things are measures of how he sees their innate ability to win, how good they once (or are) were, and whether or not they're on a hot streak right now, respectively.


OP, could you post up a generalized formula of how you calculate stats rather than a specific example? It's unclear to me right now.
Every time Jung Myung Hoon builds a vulture, two probes die. || My post count was a palindrome and I was never posting again.
Avidkeystamper
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
United States8556 Posts
October 20 2008 03:26 GMT
#8
That would be a lot of variables, but thanks for putting this up, it accounts for a lot of things!
Jaedong
3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
October 20 2008 10:22 GMT
#9
On October 20 2008 12:10 thunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2008 11:51 ish0wstopper wrote:
thats interesting but it doesnt take into account that bisu was once a monster and is still a solid player while by.hero is still nobody.

also, the quality of opponents should matter as well but that would get even more complicated so i can see why you wouldnt go in so deeply

but its funny that you dont pull numbers completely out of your ass, which is what i thought u did

especially when u said fbh 49 tempest 51 but u thought fbh was gonna win


I think he does account for it with his own personal power rank, lifetime stats, and the last 10 games in that MU. Those three things are measures of how he sees their innate ability to win, how good they once (or are) were, and whether or not they're on a hot streak right now, respectively.


OP, could you post up a generalized formula of how you calculate stats rather than a specific example? It's unclear to me right now.

basically, it's (all the wins player1 has in the categories + all the losses of player2 in his categories)/(numerator) + (wins of player2 in categories + wins of player 1)
WorldCommunist8
Profile Joined August 2007
United States226 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-10-21 02:52:01
October 21 2008 02:50 GMT
#10
some of the statistics are redundant, and inflate the numbers in favor of one player. If you have Player Z's Wins v Player X, you don't also need Player X's Losses v Player Z.

Also adding in the wins of both players in all categories as part of the denominator is kind of... stupid?

I don't know. It doesn't seem statistically sound, and I think you could put some more polish into it. It's a start though. The bonus is a very nice touch. Maybe to make it a uniform standardization, use KeSPA rankings?

EDIT: I didn't read that you just kind of made it up one day. I still stand by what I said, though.
You're toast, R1CH
LxRogue
Profile Blog Joined March 2007
United States1415 Posts
October 21 2008 07:44 GMT
#11
On October 21 2008 11:50 WorldCommunist8 wrote:
some of the statistics are redundant, and inflate the numbers in favor of one player. If you have Player Z's Wins v Player X, you don't also need Player X's Losses v Player Z.

Also adding in the wins of both players in all categories as part of the denominator is kind of... stupid?

I don't know. It doesn't seem statistically sound, and I think you could put some more polish into it. It's a start though. The bonus is a very nice touch. Maybe to make it a uniform standardization, use KeSPA rankings?

EDIT: I didn't read that you just kind of made it up one day. I still stand by what I said, though.


That doesn't seem redundant to me. Wins against your opponent should matter more than wins against somebody else. Adding your overall record to your record vs your opponent just means it's twice as important, seems reasonable.
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 6h 34m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
SpeCial 179
StarCraft: Brood War
ggaemo 44
NaDa 27
Jaeyun 22
Dota 2
capcasts129
monkeys_forever101
League of Legends
tarik_tv3034
JimRising 514
Super Smash Bros
Westballz39
Other Games
summit1g7953
shahzam346
ToD156
ViBE90
RuFF_SC26
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick1589
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 17 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Hupsaiya 104
• davetesta46
• musti20045 36
• Kozan
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Migwel
• IndyKCrew
StarCraft: Brood War
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• masondota21288
League of Legends
• Doublelift5591
Other Games
• imaqtpie856
• Scarra814
Upcoming Events
RSL Revival
6h 34m
Cure vs Rogue
Maru vs TBD
MaxPax vs TBD
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
13h 34m
BSL
18h 34m
Afreeca Starleague
1d 9h
Wardi Open
1d 9h
Replay Cast
1d 23h
Sparkling Tuna Cup
2 days
Kung Fu Cup
3 days
The PondCast
4 days
Replay Cast
4 days
[ Show More ]
Replay Cast
5 days
CranKy Ducklings
6 days
BSL
6 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Escore Tournament S2: W1
WardiTV Winter 2026
NationLESS Cup

Ongoing

BSL Season 22
CSL Elite League 2026
ASL Season 21
CSL Season 20: Qualifier 2
StarCraft2 Community Team League 2026 Spring
RSL Revival: Season 4
Nations Cup 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026
ESL Pro League S23 Finals
ESL Pro League S23 Stage 1&2
PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026

Upcoming

CSL 2026 SPRING (S20)
IPSL Spring 2026
Acropolis #4
BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
CSLAN 4
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
CCT Season 3 Global Finals
IEM Rio 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.