• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 16:18
CEST 22:18
KST 05:18
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver4[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Rough Waters10[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Siren's Call8[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Summer's End9Serral wins HomeStory Cup 2915
Community News
Weekly Cups (Sep 7-12): SHIN, ByuN, MaxPax double down0StarCraft open world shooter announced at BlizzCon98Weekly Cups (Aug 30-Sep 7): herO thrives amid growing schism10Official StarCraft website teases new content ahead of BlizzCon?179Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20)9
StarCraft 2
General
Blizzard Classic Cup @ BlizzCon 2026 - $100k prize pool How do you feel about the StarCraft shooter announcement at BlizzCon 2026? StarCraft open world shooter announced at BlizzCon Weekly Cups (Sep 7-12): SHIN, ByuN, MaxPax double down Balance hotfix patch 5.0.16b (July 16)
Tourneys
RSL Revival: Season 6 - Qualifiers and Main Event RSL goes to London! 2026 Offline Finals Nov 21-22 SC2 AI Tournament 2026 Fall Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament KSL Week #92
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
Nexus Wars 2021 GUIDE [M] (2) Industrial Park
External Content
Mutation # 543 Enhanced Defenses The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 542 The Ascended Mutation # 541 Binary Choice
Brood War
General
Official StarCraft website teases new content ahead of BlizzCon? Remastered crash fix suggestions [D] Brainstorming a balance patch for Brood war BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ New 3v3 BGH Ladder (and more) on ShieldBattery!
Tourneys
[ASL22] Ro16 Group D [ASL22] Ro16 Group C [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL22] Ro16 Group B
Strategy
Replay Review Process - What do you do? Simple Questions, Simple Answers Odyssey Mineral Stack Saturation Game Theory for Starcraft
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread EVE Corporation Diablo IV
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Artificial Intelligence Thread UK Politics Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
MarineLorD Fan Club The Creator Fan Club The ShoWTimE Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! Diablo Animated Series on Netflix
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List Northern Ireland Global Starcraft
Blogs
Virtual Romance, Real-Life C…
TrAiDoS
Regacy Esports:Our Goa…
regacyesports
Dreaming of BW patches (mod…
c3rberUs
LOCKPICKING NOOB
LUCKY_NOOB
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 6730 users

My Odds Formula

Blogs > 3 Lions
Post a Reply
3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-10-20 01:46:40
October 20 2008 01:42 GMT
#1
It's not so good...I just made it up one day because I was done with all my hw and had nothing to do. I can't figure out a way to describe it...so I'll explain by giving an example.

(P)Bisu vs (Z)by.hero

(P)Bisu
PvZ(all-time): 39-24
vs (Z)by.hero: 0-0
on Colosseum II (Stats from Colosseum I included): 2-2
Last 10: 7-3
Last 10 PvZ: 5-5
Bonus?: +3%

(Z)by.hero
ZvP(all-time): 0-2
vs (P)Bisu: 0-0
on Colosseum II (Stats from Colosseum I included): 0-0
Last 10: 1-3
Last 10 ZvP: 0-2
Bonus?: None

Colosseum II(Stats from Colosseum I included): Z 7-3 P

Total: (39+0+2+7+5+2+0+0+3+2)/(24+2+3+5+0+0+0+1+0+3+7)+(39+0+2+7+5+2+0+0+3+2+3)= .63

So, (P)Bisu 58%-42% (Z)by.hero...BUT there is a bonus for (P)Bisu because he is on my personal monthly powerank in the 8th spot, so 11-8=3. He gets a bonus of 3%.

(P)Bisu 61%-39% (Z)by.hero

If you want another example I'll provide one. But don't expect it to come immediately, I'm watching a baseball game.

edit: oops messed up something in the equation, fixed

*
ulszz
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
Jamaica1787 Posts
October 20 2008 02:04 GMT
#2
it in a program or u calc by hand?
everliving, everfaithful, eversure
3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
October 20 2008 02:04 GMT
#3
I calc by hand
alphafuzard
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States1610 Posts
October 20 2008 02:20 GMT
#4
heh, you should make a program and mass a bunch of data to see if this legit
seems kinda interesting, and makes for precise liquibetting
more weight
thunk
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States6233 Posts
October 20 2008 02:42 GMT
#5
The power ranking probably helps a lot. Like a lot a lot.
Every time Jung Myung Hoon builds a vulture, two probes die. || My post count was a palindrome and I was never posting again.
ish0wstopper
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Korea (South)342 Posts
October 20 2008 02:51 GMT
#6
thats interesting but it doesnt take into account that bisu was once a monster and is still a solid player while by.hero is still nobody.

also, the quality of opponents should matter as well but that would get even more complicated so i can see why you wouldnt go in so deeply

but its funny that you dont pull numbers completely out of your ass, which is what i thought u did

especially when u said fbh 49 tempest 51 but u thought fbh was gonna win
ish0wstopper effect
thunk
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States6233 Posts
October 20 2008 03:10 GMT
#7
On October 20 2008 11:51 ish0wstopper wrote:
thats interesting but it doesnt take into account that bisu was once a monster and is still a solid player while by.hero is still nobody.

also, the quality of opponents should matter as well but that would get even more complicated so i can see why you wouldnt go in so deeply

but its funny that you dont pull numbers completely out of your ass, which is what i thought u did

especially when u said fbh 49 tempest 51 but u thought fbh was gonna win


I think he does account for it with his own personal power rank, lifetime stats, and the last 10 games in that MU. Those three things are measures of how he sees their innate ability to win, how good they once (or are) were, and whether or not they're on a hot streak right now, respectively.


OP, could you post up a generalized formula of how you calculate stats rather than a specific example? It's unclear to me right now.
Every time Jung Myung Hoon builds a vulture, two probes die. || My post count was a palindrome and I was never posting again.
Avidkeystamper
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
United States8556 Posts
October 20 2008 03:26 GMT
#8
That would be a lot of variables, but thanks for putting this up, it accounts for a lot of things!
Jaedong
3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
October 20 2008 10:22 GMT
#9
On October 20 2008 12:10 thunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2008 11:51 ish0wstopper wrote:
thats interesting but it doesnt take into account that bisu was once a monster and is still a solid player while by.hero is still nobody.

also, the quality of opponents should matter as well but that would get even more complicated so i can see why you wouldnt go in so deeply

but its funny that you dont pull numbers completely out of your ass, which is what i thought u did

especially when u said fbh 49 tempest 51 but u thought fbh was gonna win


I think he does account for it with his own personal power rank, lifetime stats, and the last 10 games in that MU. Those three things are measures of how he sees their innate ability to win, how good they once (or are) were, and whether or not they're on a hot streak right now, respectively.


OP, could you post up a generalized formula of how you calculate stats rather than a specific example? It's unclear to me right now.

basically, it's (all the wins player1 has in the categories + all the losses of player2 in his categories)/(numerator) + (wins of player2 in categories + wins of player 1)
WorldCommunist8
Profile Joined August 2007
United States226 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-10-21 02:52:01
October 21 2008 02:50 GMT
#10
some of the statistics are redundant, and inflate the numbers in favor of one player. If you have Player Z's Wins v Player X, you don't also need Player X's Losses v Player Z.

Also adding in the wins of both players in all categories as part of the denominator is kind of... stupid?

I don't know. It doesn't seem statistically sound, and I think you could put some more polish into it. It's a start though. The bonus is a very nice touch. Maybe to make it a uniform standardization, use KeSPA rankings?

EDIT: I didn't read that you just kind of made it up one day. I still stand by what I said, though.
You're toast, R1CH
LxRogue
Profile Blog Joined March 2007
United States1415 Posts
October 21 2008 07:44 GMT
#11
On October 21 2008 11:50 WorldCommunist8 wrote:
some of the statistics are redundant, and inflate the numbers in favor of one player. If you have Player Z's Wins v Player X, you don't also need Player X's Losses v Player Z.

Also adding in the wins of both players in all categories as part of the denominator is kind of... stupid?

I don't know. It doesn't seem statistically sound, and I think you could put some more polish into it. It's a start though. The bonus is a very nice touch. Maybe to make it a uniform standardization, use KeSPA rankings?

EDIT: I didn't read that you just kind of made it up one day. I still stand by what I said, though.


That doesn't seem redundant to me. Wins against your opponent should matter more than wins against somebody else. Adding your overall record to your record vs your opponent just means it's twice as important, seems reasonable.
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 3h 42m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
mouzHeroMarine 586
UpATreeSC 138
ProTech133
JuggernautJason46
MindelVK 27
SpeCial 20
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 17743
Soulkey 539
Shuttle 379
Mini 316
Shine 83
firebathero 59
Mong 41
910 38
Trap 32
scan(afreeca) 21
[ Show more ]
zelot 18
ajuk12(nOOB) 10
Noble 8
Counter-Strike
Coldzera 1198
Heroes of the Storm
Grubby5080
Liquid`Hasu555
Other Games
FrodaN3666
Liquid`RaSZi1829
fl0m1025
Beastyqt651
IndyStarCraft 148
XaKoH 146
C9.Mang0132
ArmadaUGS126
Mew2King59
Railgan11
SteadfastSC1
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick1748
BasetradeTV42
[ Show 15 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• blackmanpl 58
• FirePhoenix20
• Pr0nogo 3
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• WagamamaTV692
League of Legends
• TFBlade713
Other Games
• imaqtpie819
• Shiphtur164
Upcoming Events
PiGosaur Cup
3h 42m
The PondCast
13h 42m
Kung Fu Cup
14h 42m
Replay Cast
1d 3h
KCM Race Survival
1d 13h
IntoTheTV X SOOP
1d 14h
OSC
2 days
Replay Cast
2 days
IntoTheTV X SOOP
2 days
Replay Cast
3 days
[ Show More ]
GSL
3 days
Replay Cast
4 days
GSL
4 days
Shopify Rebellion Sundays
4 days
Spirit vs Mixu
Replay Cast
5 days
WardiTV Weekly
5 days
Monday Night Weeklies
5 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-09-14
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Big Dog Cup 2026 Div 1

Ongoing

KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 3
K-JUNGMAN
ASL Season 22
Super Anchor Qualifying S3
CSL 2026 AUTUMN (S22)
Acropolis #5
Acropolis #5 - TRS
Calamity Invitational
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026

Upcoming

Acropolis #5 - GSA
Acropolis #5 - GSB
Acropolis #5 - GSC
SC4ALL II: Brood War
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
Copium Cup
PGL Major Singapore 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 6
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.