• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 00:11
CEST 06:11
KST 13:11
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy5[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver5[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Rough Waters10[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Siren's Call8[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Summer's End9
Community News
BSL Season 234Weekly Cups (Sep 7-12): SHIN, ByuN, MaxPax double down1StarCraft open world shooter announced at BlizzCon101Weekly Cups (Aug 30-Sep 7): herO thrives amid growing schism10Official StarCraft website teases new content ahead of BlizzCon?179
StarCraft 2
General
Balance hotfix patch 5.0.16b (July 16) StarCraft open world shooter announced at BlizzCon SC4ALL II: StarCraft 2 Player Announcement 8/8 The Death of Cheese: From a Professional Cheeser Yamato Cup Series
Tourneys
2026 GSTL Announcement Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament RSL Revival: Season 6 - Qualifiers and Main Event RSL goes to London! 2026 Offline Finals Nov 21-22 SC2 AI Tournament 2026 Fall
Strategy
[H] ZvP Mid-Late Game: Stalkers Collossi HT
Custom Maps
Nexus Wars 2021 GUIDE [M] (2) Industrial Park
External Content
Mutation # 544 Double Trouble The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 543 Enhanced Defenses Mutation # 542 The Ascended
Brood War
General
an AI researcher's take on the ladder bot BW General Discussion [ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy Syncronization issues and can't find games BSL Season 23
Tourneys
[ASL22] Ro8 Day 1 [BSL23] SM: Ret vs TerrOr -> DragOn vs StRyKeR [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL22] Ro16 Group D
Strategy
Cliff Jump Revisited (1 in a 1000 strategy) Replay Review Process - What do you do? Simple Questions, Simple Answers Odyssey Mineral Stack Saturation
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread EVE Corporation Diablo IV
Dota 2
Dota 2 Champions League Season 3 Begins April 25! Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine All you football fans (soccer)! Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
MarineLorD Fan Club The Creator Fan Club The ShoWTimE Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Diablo Animated Series on Netflix
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
Gaming Intensity, Problemati…
TrAiDoS
38 yo Retired SWE loo…
PurE)Rabbit-SF
Can Bots Beat Pros?? Starcr…
namkraft
[meme] I finally understa…
LUCKY_NOOB
Regacy Esports:Our Goa…
regacyesports
Dreaming of BW patches (mod…
c3rberUs
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 13973 users

Combinatorics and Probability

Blogs > Dave[9]
Post a Reply
Dave[9]
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
United States2365 Posts
July 26 2009 08:39 GMT
#1
Note: not a homework thread, i happen to be a sophmore level math major just curious about the topic of a specific card game. I have been working on this for a few days now and need some input (or to see if I'm even right) on the topic.

Okay, so i recently played a family game called Tripoly, in which there is 8 ways to win money:

1. you can win the poker round
2. you can win any of the 7 placers on the board consisting of:
a. King of hearts
b. Queen of Hearts
c. Jack of hearts
d. Ten of hearts
e. Ace of hearts
f. King and Queen of hearts (both same suite)
g. Kitty (explained below)
h. 8, 9, 10 suited

Depending on the number of players, you can have different amounts of cards as all of the cards must be used up. However, if there are n players you must deal out as if there were n+1 because a extra set of cards is dealt for the dealer to see if he wants to either auction the hand off or switch his own hand for it( he is not allowed to see this set). So how the game in one turn generally goes is the dealer either switches or auctions the hand, then a poker round goes, which is basically 5 card stud, and then the dealer selects his lowest rank card of any suite, and if the next person has the next card in that suite, they play it and so on until you reach the ace. If no one has the next card of the suite, the player who put down the last card gets to choose the lowest card of a different suite and so on. If the player has the ace and it is played, they get to choose the next suite. If at any time any of the said outcomes to win is placed down, you get the money in that pot, (i.e i play a 10h i get that cash. Or if i play both 10h, Kh, and Qh, i get all the cash from the independants, as well as the KQh pot.).

Last night i played where everyone typically had 7 cards in their hand, and i tried using my limited knowledge having taken a discrete math course to try to compute the following odds. So here are my questions.

1. probability of getting either a 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh, or Ah in a :

a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

without getting another of the said cards in the same hand (i.e cant have JQh in the same hand.

1a. probability of getting two of 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh, or Ah in a:


a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

getting a KQh or any other of the cards in the same hand.

1b. probability of getting 3 of 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh, or Ah in a:


a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

without getting a KQh in the 3 cards or any of the other cards in the same hand (i.e {10h, Jh, Qh,x, y, z, a})

1c. probability of getting 4 of 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh, or Ah in a:


a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

without getting a KQh in the 4 cards.

2. probability of getting a KQh in a:


a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

without having any of the other "important hearts" in the hand.

2a. probability of getting a KQh in a

a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

with having 1, or 2 other "important hearts" in the hand.

3. Probability of getting a 8, 9, 10 of the same suite in a:

a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=104154&currentpage=316#6317
illu
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
Canada2531 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-26 09:10:11
July 26 2009 09:09 GMT
#2
Call me lazy, but the rules are kind of complex to count accurately (and you said you've been working on it for days). It might be easier (and less error prone) to write a computer program and simulate some cases for an approximation.

You probably don't even need to try every single case - just randomly generate a reasonable amount of cases such that your confidence interval is fairly small.
:]
evanthebouncy!
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
United States12805 Posts
July 26 2009 10:12 GMT
#3
i thought u were day[9] then i read "sophmore lvl math" and I got throughly confused
Life is run, it is dance, it is fast, passionate and BAM!, you dance and sing and booze while you can for now is the time and time is mine. Smile and laugh when still can for now is the time and soon you die!
ashara
Profile Joined July 2008
France22 Posts
July 26 2009 12:35 GMT
#4
Here are my inputs. I haven't done any probability computation for a while so I am probably rusty and wrong.

+ Show Spoiler +

1)
Probability to get one and only one of the five h with 7 cards hand:
7C1 * 5/52 * 47/51 * 46/50 * 45/49 * 44/48 * 43/47 * 42/46

7 cards: 40.13%
8 cards: 41.79%
9 cards: 42.74%

1a)
Probability to get 2 and only 2 of the five h with 7 cards hand:
7C2 * 5/52 * 4/51 * 47/50 * 46/49 * 45/48 * 44/47 * 43/46
Following results include KQh. To get probability without KQh substract corresponding result of 2)

7 cards: 11.47%
8 cards: 14.27%
9 cards: 17.09%


1b)
Probability to get 3 and only 3 of the five h with 7 cards hand:
7C3 * 5/52 * 4/51 * 3/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 * 45/47 * 44/46
Following results include KQh. To get probability without KQh substract corresponding result of 2a)

7 cards: 1.333%
8 cards: 2.038%
9 cards: 2.919%

1c)
Probability to get 4 and only 4 of the five h with 7 cards hand:
7C4 * 5/52 * 4/51 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 47/48 * 46/47 * 45/46
Following results include KQh. To get probability without KQh substract corresponding result of 2a)

7 cards: 0.0601%
8 cards: 0.1185%
9 cards: 0.2085%

2) Probability to get KQh and no other important hearts with 7 cards hand:
7C2 * 2/52 * 1/51 * 47/50 * 46/49 * 45/48 * 44/47 * 43/46

7 cards: 1.147%
8 cards: 1.427%
9 cards: 1.709%

2a) Probability to get KQh and 1 important heart with 7 cards hand:
Not sure about that one, I would have used
7C3 * 2/52 * 1/51 * 3/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 * 45/47 * 44/46, but I probably miss something since it gives 10% of result 1b. I rather expect it to be 30% of result 1b.

Probability to get KQh and 2 important hearts with 7 cards hand.
Not sure about formula for that one too. I would expect it to be 60% of result 1c.

3) Probability to get 8,9,10 suite with 7 cards hand
7C3 * 3/52 * 2/51 * 1/50 * 4.
Formula is slightly wrong since it considers suites for the 4 colors as independant which is not the case as you can get 8h,9h,10h,8s,9s and 10s in the same hand.
Real probability is probably lower by a very small amount.

7 cards: 0.6335%
8 cards: 1.014%
9 cards: 1.520%
Tehinf
Profile Joined September 2008
United States192 Posts
July 26 2009 12:43 GMT
#5
wat i am really confused
"Good, better, best. Never let it rest until your good is better, and your better is best."
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Replay Cast
00:00
2026 GSTL: Playoffs Round 2
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
WinterStarcraft675
RuFF_SC2 308
NeuroSwarm 158
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 16472
Rain 1945
GuemChi 1469
Leta 227
Yoon 47
sorry 14
League of Legends
JimRising 751
Counter-Strike
taco 406
Super Smash Bros
hungrybox614
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor179
Other Games
Maynarde198
Livibee163
ViBE56
Mew2King39
[ Show 14 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Hupsaiya 90
• mYiSmile15
• intothetv
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• masondota21935
League of Legends
• Lourlo816
• Rush151
Other Games
• Scarra1327
Upcoming Events
Afreeca Starleague
5h 49m
Shine vs Rush
WardiTV Weekly
6h 49m
Monday Night Weeklies
11h 49m
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1d 5h
Afreeca Starleague
1d 5h
Light vs EffOrt
OSC
1d 7h
PiGosaur Cup
1d 19h
Kung Fu Cup
2 days
The PondCast
3 days
Replay Cast
3 days
[ Show More ]
Korean StarCraft League
4 days
CranKy Ducklings
5 days
GSL
6 days
Yamato Cup
6 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Super Anchor Qualifying S3
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Big Dog Cup 2026 Div 1

Ongoing

ASL Season 22
CSL 2026 AUTUMN (S22)
Acropolis #5
Acropolis #5 - GSA
Calamity Invitational
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026

Upcoming

Acropolis #5 - GSB
Acropolis #5 - GSC
BSL Season 23
SC4ALL II: Brood War
BSL 23: Non-Korean Championship
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
Copium Cup
PGL Major Singapore 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 6
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.