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Combinatorics and Probability

Blogs > Dave[9]
Post a Reply
Dave[9]
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
United States2365 Posts
July 26 2009 08:39 GMT
#1
Note: not a homework thread, i happen to be a sophmore level math major just curious about the topic of a specific card game. I have been working on this for a few days now and need some input (or to see if I'm even right) on the topic.

Okay, so i recently played a family game called Tripoly, in which there is 8 ways to win money:

1. you can win the poker round
2. you can win any of the 7 placers on the board consisting of:
a. King of hearts
b. Queen of Hearts
c. Jack of hearts
d. Ten of hearts
e. Ace of hearts
f. King and Queen of hearts (both same suite)
g. Kitty (explained below)
h. 8, 9, 10 suited

Depending on the number of players, you can have different amounts of cards as all of the cards must be used up. However, if there are n players you must deal out as if there were n+1 because a extra set of cards is dealt for the dealer to see if he wants to either auction the hand off or switch his own hand for it( he is not allowed to see this set). So how the game in one turn generally goes is the dealer either switches or auctions the hand, then a poker round goes, which is basically 5 card stud, and then the dealer selects his lowest rank card of any suite, and if the next person has the next card in that suite, they play it and so on until you reach the ace. If no one has the next card of the suite, the player who put down the last card gets to choose the lowest card of a different suite and so on. If the player has the ace and it is played, they get to choose the next suite. If at any time any of the said outcomes to win is placed down, you get the money in that pot, (i.e i play a 10h i get that cash. Or if i play both 10h, Kh, and Qh, i get all the cash from the independants, as well as the KQh pot.).

Last night i played where everyone typically had 7 cards in their hand, and i tried using my limited knowledge having taken a discrete math course to try to compute the following odds. So here are my questions.

1. probability of getting either a 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh, or Ah in a :

a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

without getting another of the said cards in the same hand (i.e cant have JQh in the same hand.

1a. probability of getting two of 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh, or Ah in a:


a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

getting a KQh or any other of the cards in the same hand.

1b. probability of getting 3 of 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh, or Ah in a:


a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

without getting a KQh in the 3 cards or any of the other cards in the same hand (i.e {10h, Jh, Qh,x, y, z, a})

1c. probability of getting 4 of 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh, or Ah in a:


a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

without getting a KQh in the 4 cards.

2. probability of getting a KQh in a:


a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

without having any of the other "important hearts" in the hand.

2a. probability of getting a KQh in a

a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

with having 1, or 2 other "important hearts" in the hand.

3. Probability of getting a 8, 9, 10 of the same suite in a:

a. 7 card hand
b. 8 card hand
c. 9 card hand

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=104154&currentpage=316#6317
illu
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
Canada2531 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-26 09:10:11
July 26 2009 09:09 GMT
#2
Call me lazy, but the rules are kind of complex to count accurately (and you said you've been working on it for days). It might be easier (and less error prone) to write a computer program and simulate some cases for an approximation.

You probably don't even need to try every single case - just randomly generate a reasonable amount of cases such that your confidence interval is fairly small.
:]
evanthebouncy!
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
United States12816 Posts
July 26 2009 10:12 GMT
#3
i thought u were day[9] then i read "sophmore lvl math" and I got throughly confused
Life is run, it is dance, it is fast, passionate and BAM!, you dance and sing and booze while you can for now is the time and time is mine. Smile and laugh when still can for now is the time and soon you die!
ashara
Profile Joined July 2008
France22 Posts
July 26 2009 12:35 GMT
#4
Here are my inputs. I haven't done any probability computation for a while so I am probably rusty and wrong.

+ Show Spoiler +

1)
Probability to get one and only one of the five h with 7 cards hand:
7C1 * 5/52 * 47/51 * 46/50 * 45/49 * 44/48 * 43/47 * 42/46

7 cards: 40.13%
8 cards: 41.79%
9 cards: 42.74%

1a)
Probability to get 2 and only 2 of the five h with 7 cards hand:
7C2 * 5/52 * 4/51 * 47/50 * 46/49 * 45/48 * 44/47 * 43/46
Following results include KQh. To get probability without KQh substract corresponding result of 2)

7 cards: 11.47%
8 cards: 14.27%
9 cards: 17.09%


1b)
Probability to get 3 and only 3 of the five h with 7 cards hand:
7C3 * 5/52 * 4/51 * 3/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 * 45/47 * 44/46
Following results include KQh. To get probability without KQh substract corresponding result of 2a)

7 cards: 1.333%
8 cards: 2.038%
9 cards: 2.919%

1c)
Probability to get 4 and only 4 of the five h with 7 cards hand:
7C4 * 5/52 * 4/51 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 47/48 * 46/47 * 45/46
Following results include KQh. To get probability without KQh substract corresponding result of 2a)

7 cards: 0.0601%
8 cards: 0.1185%
9 cards: 0.2085%

2) Probability to get KQh and no other important hearts with 7 cards hand:
7C2 * 2/52 * 1/51 * 47/50 * 46/49 * 45/48 * 44/47 * 43/46

7 cards: 1.147%
8 cards: 1.427%
9 cards: 1.709%

2a) Probability to get KQh and 1 important heart with 7 cards hand:
Not sure about that one, I would have used
7C3 * 2/52 * 1/51 * 3/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 * 45/47 * 44/46, but I probably miss something since it gives 10% of result 1b. I rather expect it to be 30% of result 1b.

Probability to get KQh and 2 important hearts with 7 cards hand.
Not sure about formula for that one too. I would expect it to be 60% of result 1c.

3) Probability to get 8,9,10 suite with 7 cards hand
7C3 * 3/52 * 2/51 * 1/50 * 4.
Formula is slightly wrong since it considers suites for the 4 colors as independant which is not the case as you can get 8h,9h,10h,8s,9s and 10s in the same hand.
Real probability is probably lower by a very small amount.

7 cards: 0.6335%
8 cards: 1.014%
9 cards: 1.520%
Tehinf
Profile Joined September 2008
United States192 Posts
July 26 2009 12:43 GMT
#5
wat i am really confused
"Good, better, best. Never let it rest until your good is better, and your better is best."
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