Starting ICCUP

Every so often a darkhorse makes it to the finals of the MSL. There was Kal in S4 and Bisu in S1. Both of these players were cast aside as whims and flukes. Then Bisu 3-0ed sAviOr and Kal suddenly became one of the hottest new players despite losing 3-1 to Jaedong.

This year there is a new underdog, a player most had little, if any, respect for before now. Many didn't expect fOrGG to take down Sea, Flash, or Kal who are all powerhouses in their respective races. fOrGG 2-0ed Sea (45-25 vs T), went 3-2 with Kal (25-16 vs T), and finished 3-1 with Flash (30-14 vs T).

But even with these impressive victories, fOrGG has yet to be tested TvZ in this MSL having only had Terran and Protoss opponents. Statistically fOrGG shows great promise against Zerg having gone 5-2 vs Z in 2008. But sadly those that have followed his TvZ will know that despite having macro that can compete with iloveoov, he lacks management of his army. This has proved problematic in many of his matches (see his game vs YarnC). This just won't fly vs a player of Jaedong's caliber (50-29 vs T).

Hopefully, fOrGG has stepped up his game now that he has to play the #1 Zerg in progaming. With his impressive play against Flash we are given hope that since he has improved his once mediocre TvT he has also improved his TvZ.

Now to discuss the man many expect to 3-0 fOrGG, the hottest Zerg right now, Lee Jae Dong! There isn't much to say about Jaedong that can't be seen by just watching one of his games. He is excellent at mutlitasking, has incredible play in all 3 of his match ups, and occasionally shows how creative he can by showcasing some unique builds.

Statistically you would expect Jaedong to demolish fOrGG but lately his ZvT has shown some problems. While his ZvP has been impeccable he has been known to drop the ball vs T in recent games. He seems to have snapped out of that with his 3-1 victory over Hwasin but he has proven to be far from immune to creative builds (see his game vs Casy on Hwarangdo) and can sometimes fall apart unexpectedly. Regardless of these occasional issues Jaedong is still the clear favorite in this series.

+ Show Spoiler [Their Paths So Far] +

LosingID8 wrote:
I predict ForGG to win the finals. People have doubted ForGG this entire tournament, but he's been upsetting people left and right. His Achilles Heel was his TvT, but in this MSL alone he beat Sea[Shield] 2-0 where he was previously 0-6 against him, and he took a Bo5 against Flash 3-1. Other than TvT, ForGG's greatest weakness is that he has very little experience in Bo5's. But the series against Flash shows that ForGG is an expert at analyzing his opponent's playstyle and preparing excellent counter-builds to exploit their tendencies. This is especially relevant as ForGG and Jaedong are teammates. If he was able to destroy Flash so easily, who's to say he can't do the same with Jaedong? My prediction: ForGG 3 - 2 Jaedong.

thedeadhaji wrote:
I expect at least one game from each player where they use a semi-cheese build, just from the fact that they are teammates, know each other in and out, and both have a match history peppered with cheese-ish openings when you least expect it. If Jaedong can force a multitasking style game on fOrGG, he's clearly the favorite. However, if fOrGG can contain the game to one focal point throughout its progression, his improved micro and godly-as-always macro should take him a long ways. I do hope that there will be at least one straight up game where Jaedong goes 3 hatch mutas and fOrGG goes 1 rax fe, because Tl.net will see the ridiculousness of fOrGG's army going out to kill Jaedong's 3rd gas while having another full force to defend. fOrGG has the potential to reinvent the Terran race as we recognize it today, and while most of you will dismiss these comments of a biased Lecaf fan, I will urge you to pay close attention to the beginning of something potential special

Chill wrote:
ForGG beat Flash by doing his homework; he guessed right on Flash's common builds and punished him for it three times. Unfortunately for him, Jaedong's style seems to be a little more resilient than Flash's (Jaedong vs Lomo @ Katrina anyone?) and will most likely not fall to prepared strategies. Although Colosseum could cause a few problems, I still expect Jaedong to stream roll ForGG in straight sets.

Jaedong 3-0 ForGG

FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
Flash lost to fOrGG because he was inflexible during the series. However, Jaedong is adaptive and clever and he's not going to lose. Jaedong will win 3-1, he'll lose the first game or the game on Tiamat, either way he'll win 3-1.

Set 1: Colosseum

Statistically Colosseum favors Terran (5-2 vs Z) and it seems Zergs tend to try unorthodox builds here (Guardians from Calm when he played Mind, 2 hatch lurker from in the Jaedong vs Hwasi match) due to the map imbalance. I don't know if this will play out in fOrGG's favor or Jaedong's but considering how well Jaedong executed his 2 hatch lurker build vs Hwasin I can't see fOrGG handling this very well due to lacking the micro mechanics that Hwasin has and Hwasin still succumbed to this build. One problem may Jaedong may face if he decides to take the usual 3rd base as he did vs Hwasin is fOrGG abusing the two entrances, forcing to Jaedong to give up map control to defend both entrances. But if Jaedong takes one of the naturals with 1 ramp this shouldn't be a problem. I see Jaedong taking the game in a straight match or an unorthodox match. I can't really imagine fOrGG trying an all-in or cheese here so it will be upon Jaedong whether the game deviates from standard play. Either way Jaedong will take this set.

Jaedong 1-0 (T)

fOrGG

Set 2: Othello

Othello is quite possibly one of the most balanced maps in all of progaming right. Statistically it is 15-9 TvZ but many of the games consisted of one player that was much better than his opponent dominating the other player (Hwasin vs MinGu, Sea vs Hyuk, Mind vs Hyun, RuBy vs ZerO), so it's not really a question of imbalance more of who's the better player or who has the better strategy. The last game we saw of fOrGG on here he opened up with a very aggressive bunker rush vs YarnC then proceeded to dominate him with macro despite handling his units very poorly. Jaedong has also won on Othello against Hwasin so both players are experienced here. I believe fOrGG will win if he has a creative build to use but if he decides to take it into a macro/standard TvZ he will get demolished.

I believe this set can go either way but most likely in Jaedong's favor.

Jaedong 2-0 (T)

fOrGG

Set 3: Tiamat

Tiamat is relatively new and only has 4 TvZ games on it (4-0 in favor of T) so balance is not really known at this point for this map but it seems like it heavily favors Terran. In the Hwasin vs Jaedong series both opted for standard play and Jaedong was taken down in short order. Jaedong's play in that game left a lot to be desired so hopefully he is better prepared for his game vs fOrGG on this map. I believe Jaedong will decide to go standard play on this map but from fOrGG anything is possible, a cheese or all-in or standard play is all possible from him. Either way I think fOrGG will take this down just because it is very strong in favor of Terran.

Jaedong 2-1 (T)

fOrGG

Set 4: Athena

Athena, like Tiamat is a new map with very few games played on it (4 games for TvZ with 2-2 as the result). Jaedong 4 pooled Hwasin here so we don't know whether he will do another cheese against fOrGG or go for standard play but I think it will go to Jaedong either way and end the series making Jaedong you're current MSL champion.

Jaedong 3-1 (T)

fOrGG

Note this final prediction is written for in the event the series does go to the 5th set.

Set 5: Colosseum

Assuming that fOrGG is able to make the series 2-2 and take it to the 5th and final set, I believe it will go similar to how the first set on this map went but with the possibility of a cheese or some kind of all in from fOrGG. Either way Jaedong takes this set down and win the Arena MSL finals.

Jaedong 3-2 (T)

fOrGG

Final Notes:

Whatever the outcome I think this series will be very exciting for the fans and the players. Both players are playing very well now so the games should be of a high quality and very entertaining.

Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy the Arena MSL Finals!

Thanks to Plexa for editing and ideas.
Thanks to Smurg for the map line-up image and editing.
Thanks to Chill for ideas and editing.
Thanks to pachi for the banners.
Thanks to fomos.kr for the pictures of Jaedong/fOrGG.