EPTDo you want to be a winner too? Of course you do! Everyone wants to be a winner. But there can only be one (per Major). Let me teach you how YOU can be a winner!
Follow these easy-ish steps and you will have a chance to become the TLDota prediction contest winner:
- Enter the contest.
- Be prepared to be active during the whole tournament.
- Spot the upset.
- Reevaluate constantly.
- Know when you are playing from behind or from the lead.
- Take risk
- Be very lucky!
This one is quite simple.
Forgetting to enter just a few games might cost you the win. So take the time to enter all matches in advance. Better to have a bad prediction than none at all.
In my experience, there are at least one upset per day. How to spot that is not all that easy as it sounds. Some teams come into a tournament as underdogs. They then over perform/surprise/upset in the first rounds. This momentum must be analysed to figure out if the team is actually THAT good or just had a few good days. Other upsets happens due to scrimming partners, style clash, good day/bad day, or simply because the match is really close on paper but most on TLDota bets X team will win (Nigma and Team Liquid).
As an example, look at Na'Vi at DL S13. They won their group convincingly (vs EG 2-1, vs TL 2-0) only to lose their only 2 matches in the playoff (vs Alliance 1-2, vs TL 0-2). Most had Na'Vi somewhere at the bottom of the ranking coming in to the tournament. After their upset in the group stage, they did a 180 and made counter upset in the playoffs.
I'm not saying this is easy to spot at all (I didn't at DL S13 - I only had 2 of their 4 matches correct), but trying to find that upset will really push you to the top since... well... its an upset.
Continuing a bit on the point above. Teams get better during a tournament. So just because that had a bad showing in group stage doesn't mean that should be given the same weight as later matches. The other way around happens as well.
Using my example above with Na'Vi is again a good example. But also EG, who lost to Na'Vi first round, went on to be 2nd overall.
During group stage and the beginning of playoffs, you can play quite freely. Bet what you believe and hope it works out. At some point you have to start looking at your position in the rankings and those around you. Are you behind you have to take chances: they bet X - you bet Y. You can also bet in the minority in the close matches. This will be a low risk play but can add a little bit to your ranking especially if those just around you all bet the same way.
Playing from the lead means covering your ass. How can you keep the status quo without taking to many chances? All are betting on X - you bet on X. Don't go looking for the upset in this scenario.
Important to note that in the late game you only want to compare yourself with your immediate opponents. So if 75% are betting X but those 5 ahead/behind are betting Y - the majority is betting Y in regards to you.
Be willing to take risk. Regardless of my other points you need to risk it for the biscuit.
Luck always beats smarts. Maybe that's the only reason i've won so far and you can disregard all i've written.
I hope we can all have lots of fun in the upcoming prediction contest and i dare anyone to take me down
//Dirkzor
