EPT
CJ Entus vs. Samsung Galaxy
The very first match of Proleague 2015 features the 4th and 5th placed teams of 2014. Both teams finished strongly last year; Samsung managed to sneak into the playoffs in Round 4 on the back of solid performances from RorO and Stork, whilst CJ recovered from a terrible performance in Round 1. Consecutive appearances in the playoffs in the following three rounds meant qualification to the post-season and a heartbreaking loss to SKT, as Rain’s Dark Shrine ended any hopes of reaching the finals.
Fast forward 4 months from KT’s triumph in the telecom derby, and things have changed for both of these hopeful challengers. For CJ, their Brood War star EffOrt retired after showing real signs of progress, with important wins in the playoffs showing his increasing versatility alongside his ZvT sniping. Another long-serving team member in Hydra left for ROOT Gaming and overseas competition, while the decision to allow GuMiho to leave seems more bizarre by the week as he continues to rack up impressive wins in the off season. Equally, Samsung have lost RorO to retirement. The ace player will be a big loss, and his 19-10 record will be hard to replace, and their weak Terran roster was further diminished by the departures of Reality and TurN. Furthermore, Stork has taken up a role on the Samsung coaching staff; a move that may well decrease his playing time.
Despite their losses during the offseason though, both teams will still look to push on this season with promising new recruits and rookies. sKyHigh’s rise was completely unexpected; after zero appearances in Proleague 2014 and no individual successes, nobody saw his 3rd-4th place finish in the Hot6ix cup coming. His excellent TvT will surely help to replace EffOrt in CJ’s plans, especially in the current meta, and we’re yet to see if he can push on with his other two matchups and cement a core place in the starting roster. The ex-IM ace Byul has also joined, and while he is worryingly the sole Zerg on the team, his impressive performances last year indicate that he may well be a more valuable player overall than either EffOrt or Hydra.
Solar steadily improved throughout 2014, and after the roster changes looks to be the easy choice to replace RorO as Samsung’s ace player. Dear has joined after his unfortunate European sojourn, and while it seems unlikely that he’ll regain the stellar form that brought him twin Season 3 championships in 2013, he is a useful addition to a squad that’s somewhat lacking in top tier Protoss. To replace the two lost Terrans, BrAvO and Journey were recruited from SKT. While both barely featured last season (understandably considering SKT’s bloated roster), Journey in particular has shown promise, with some good performance in online cups, and a great run in the MSI qualifiers including wins over Dear, Maru, GuMiho and Byul.
ByuL <Overgrowth> Solar
Hush <Deadwing> eMotionherO[jOin]<King Sejong Station> Dear
Bbyong <Catallena> BrAvOAce: <KTV Foxtrot Labs>
CJ seem to have opened poorly, with Byul drawing by far his worst match-up. His win rate in the mirror match-up is a disastrous 32% in offline games in 2014, while Solar’s is a healthy 58%. Coupled with Solar’s impressive form in the past few weeks, this would seem to be a routine win for Samsung; however, that same form may be Solar’s weakness in this game. He has played a staggering 401 games in the past 3 months, including 123 ZvZs, and thus has a huge number of matches available for study. As one of the players guaranteed to be fielded on Samsung, it’s highly likely that CJ and others have prepared specifically for him. Whether Byul can execute is another issue; considering the remaining matches, a win is a must for Solar.
Next up is a somewhat surprising match-up, featuring two of the lesser-seen players on both teams. Hush featured primarily as a PvP sniper in last season’s Proleague, winning 4/5 of his matches, with his sole loss coming in the playoffs at the hands of Rain. While the calibre of Rain makes his defeat somewhat forgivable, it also shows the amount of faith the CJ team have put in his talents. eMotion is somewhat of an unknown quantity; however, his relatively poor PvP win rate against Koreans (44% in the last 3 months) suggests that Hush may well have the upper hand here.
Both teams bring out the big guns here, with herO coming out for CJ to face Dear. Much like Solar for Samsung, CJ’s hopes for this week and the season rest largely on their undisputed ace herO. Luckily, he still looks in top form following his win at San José, and while PvP remains his weakest match-up, it should still be too good for a Dear who still has yet to regain his championship form. Against Rain in the recent IEM finals, herO showed a newly found willingness to scout his main and natural, so hopefully the chances of yet another successful proxy 2-gate on a 2 player map should be reduced.
Finally, Bbyong vs. BrAvO gives us a chance to see what ridiculous build the former has concocted. The second of the team’s two remaining core members from last season, Bbyong is heavily favoured to pick up a win here against a player who was rarely seen for SKT last season, playing only 18 TvTs in the whole of 2014.
Conclusion
Solar and Bbyong must be heavily favoured to win their matches against inferior opposition; and whilst you can never quite count out a 2 time WCS champion, herO is likely to be the winner in his match against Dear. This means a lot rests on the relatively unknown pair of Hush and eMotion, and Hush’s PvP should see him through to a win here.
However, one thing to note is that if Samsung force an ace match, no one on CJ’s roster is an ideal fit to take out Solar. His traditionally strong ZvP (and ZvZ) mean that regular ace herO may be a risky pick, whilst his weaker ZvT has shown signs of improvement recently with wins over TaeJa, YoDa, and his nemesis GuMiho. Unless Bbyong has planned something special for the ace match, herO should still be considered the best option given his own stellar PvZ, but expect for it to be a tough battle.
Predictions
ByuL <Overgrowth> SolarHush <Deadwing> eMotionherO[jOin]<King Sejong Station> DearBbyong <Catallena> BrAvOCJ Entus 3 – 1 Samsung Galaxy
I'll add the others in here when I finish them. And pictures when I get back home. Please correct me if anything's wrong or tell me how to improve. Any comments would be appreciated.
Credit all stats to Aligulac
