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I don't see what's wrong, it's just a fun question to me. And since TL is full of smart users, I can simply ask my questions and grow as a person.  I know we've been in heated discussions but hey, if you can teach me something, I won't reject it.
(Note that I never make a confusion between theory and real life, I'm just curious about words in general, that's all. I still eat when I'm hungry and then p... do my thing after a couple of days.)
I don't understand what you imply by saying that probabilities are rules, could you explain a little more ?
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Words are words. You can make everything happen with words lol.
Anyway i can see a coin. Can you see probabilities ? That should be enough to answer your question lol. Call it a convention, a concept, a rule, w/e. Happy now ?
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in before "but blind people can't see coins" arggggggggggggg.
I won't answer this one !!!
(Well i could, they can sense coins with their hands but then "what about if they don't have hands ?"etc... it never ends with people like Kukaracha lol).
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No, the question is less tricky than that!
For example, if I throw a coin, I'll say "there's a 50% chance that the outcome is tails" (excluding any other event as in the coin being desintegrated by a bomb, the observers dying of a heart attack, etc). Then I'll throw it a couple of times and I'll be left with something like 40% of tails and 60% of heads. My proposition wasn't empirically verified, although it doesn't invalidate the original "rule" (it seems like an appropriate term). In fact, if the proportions are a division of an infinite number, how can you divide an infinite number ?
Also, if I were to make an educated guess and place a bet on any of the two possibilities, I may consider that each has the same chances of appearing. However, if I throw the coin there's always the possibility that I'll only obtain tails for a very long time, as what seems very long to me is nothing in comparison to an infinite duration. As such, although my choice is correct in theory, it may not be appropriate for me as the life span of a human being is minuscule in comparison of the duration concerned by the 50/50 proportion.
(For example, if I roll a dice with 6 faces, I might consider the fact that there is a 1/6 chances that each face will appear, and place my bets accordingly, except that the game will only last a couple of minutes in the billions of years that constitute our mathematical context, and that the chances that I will roll only sixes aren't that small when you look at the big picture.)
The second question being : aren't probabilities irrelevant when compared to an infinite number? How is it that they seem to be verified empirically? Why are results constant?
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On January 05 2013 02:29 Kukaracha wrote:
For example, if I throw a coin, I'll say "there's a 50% chance that the outcome is tails"
It is only true if the coin is fair... another concept... but does perfect fairness exists ? That's a question for you Kukaracha.
On January 05 2013 02:29 Kukaracha wrote:
(excluding any other event as in the coin being desintegrated by a bomb, the observers dying of a heart attack, etc). Then I'll throw it a couple of times and I'll be left with something like 40% of tails and 60% of heads. My proposition wasn't empirically verified, although it doesn't invalidate the original "rule" (it seems like an appropriate term).
Dude that's where you are getting lost. We are discussing in this thread a "fantasy" problem (its called math for a reason lol) whereas you want to discuss the result of a real coin flip. Now i have to tell you that irl you don't make the rules except if you are god or some crazy shit lol. You have no fucking idea about the fairness of your coin and its "rules", hence all the empirical rolls and shit. You could also use a bit of basic physics knowledge and weight your coin etc... anyway the result is that you will never know the exact "rules" whereas in a fantasy problem you are MAKING the rules.
On January 05 2013 02:29 Kukaracha wrote:
In fact, if the proportions are a division of an infinite number, how can you divide an infinite number ?
Classic Kukaracha, a random question completly unrelated.
On January 05 2013 02:29 Kukaracha wrote:
Also, if I were to make an educated guess and place a bet on any of the two possibilities, I may consider that each has the same chances of appearing.
However, if I throw the coin there's always the possibility that I'll only obtain tails for a very long time, as what seems very long to me is nothing in comparison to an infinite duration. As such, although my choice is correct in theory, it may not be appropriate for me as the life span of a human being is minuscule in comparison of the duration concerned by the 50/50 proportion.
(For example, if I roll a dice with 6 faces, I might consider the fact that there is a 1/6 chances that each face will appear, and place my bets accordingly, except that the game will only last a couple of minutes in the billions of years that constitute our mathematical context, and that the chances that I will roll only sixes aren't that small when you look at the big picture.)
The second question being : aren't probabilities irrelevant when compared to an infinite number? How is it that they seem to be verified empirically? Why are results constant?
Oh god you are stuck in a an infinite loop of auto mindfuck it seems. I can't do anything for you lol. As i said you are STERILE.
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Just curious, i need some empirical data lol.
Poll: Who is the biggest retardkukaracha (5) 71% boblion (2) 29% 7 total votes Your vote: Who is the biggest retard (Vote): boblion
(Vote): kukaracha
Just to be clear the empirical data is about TL users opinions, not me or Kukaracha.
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On January 05 2013 01:06 sam!zdat wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2013 21:09 kusto wrote:On January 04 2013 20:26 Prog wrote:On January 04 2013 19:21 kusto wrote:
There's no philosophy in this, just math. I might solve it later if i have time. The problem is about giving credence to a certain proposition in a particular thought-experiment situation. Of course it is philosophy (epistemology). Academic philosophy is (or rather: can be) way closer to math than you might expect. OK, then the problem is the word "credence", which might have inherited some unpractical definitions. For me, it's just the probability p(coin was Tails | i have woken up on any day) - with this premise, the problem is perfectly solvable. What's the probability "I have woken up on any day" that's a hard one edit: remember that propositions should tell you what possible world you are in edit: anybody who answers 1/3 must then account for arbitrarily large case
In the arbitrarily large case the probability of tails (under the condition that the princess is woken up) goes to zero.
Don't see how you can say that "no new information was gained". The fact that she was woken up IS new information.
This isn't about Bayesian inference at all: simple counting gives the same result.
It's exactly the same mechanism as Monty Hall or the Coin Toss puzzle.
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^
Her only source of information is the mad guy.
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On January 05 2013 03:14 Boblion wrote:
^
Her only source of information is the mad guy.
Are you agreeing or disagreeing?
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The thing is that being awake doesn't help her to know if it is tails, head or the day, but as i said before OP question isn't really clear.
sam!zdat mind to give your "answer" ?
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On January 05 2013 03:00 Boblion wrote:Just curious, i need some empirical data lol. Poll: Who is the biggest retardkukaracha (5) 71% boblion (2) 29% 7 total votes Your vote: Who is the biggest retard (Vote): boblion
(Vote): kukaracha
they guy who goes batshit with ad hominem wins in my eyes.
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On January 05 2013 03:25 Boblion wrote:
The thing is that being awake doesn't help her to know if it is tails or head or the day, but as i said before OP question isn't really clear.
But it does. She knows that the coin landing heads or tails would change the probability of her being awake. So it's not surprising that being awake changes the probability of the coin having landed heads or tails in turn.
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But she doesn't know what will happen next. Maybe the mad guy lied and it is monday and she will go to sleep again ?
I think that this problem has no solution from her pov.
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sleeping beauty knows everything you know, she only has amnesia for things that happen on monday.
the philosopher is not a liar, and he asks every time they have tea.
he can ask her two things, consider both:
what is the probability that the proposition 'the coin was tails' is true?
what is the probability that the proposition 'it is now monday' is true?
the second one is harder because it involves an indexical. But if on sunday the probaility is .5 that tails, and she gains no information when she wakes up because both outcomes produce same phenomenological experience, then it seems answer must be .5. But if she always guesses tails she will be wrong more than half the time, so the probability can't be .5.
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you'll notice that the wikipedia article has a section titled 'solutions' and none title 'solution'
in samizdat's blog, no appeals to wikithority are permitted
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I wrote answerS in my last post :p
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On January 05 2013 04:13 sam!zdat wrote:
sleeping beauty knows everything you know, she only has amnesia for things that happen on monday.
the philosopher is not a liar, and he asks every time they have tea.
he can ask her two things, consider both:
what is the probability that the proposition 'the coin was tails' is true?
what is the probability that the proposition 'it is now monday' is true?
the second one is harder because it involves an indexical. But if on sunday the probaility is .5 that tails, and she gains no information when she wakes up because both outcomes produce same phenomenological experience, then it seems answer must be .5. But if she always guesses tails she will be wrong more than half the time, so the probability can't be .5.
That's silly, of course she gained new information. If you want to be anal about it the information was gained at the moment when the rules were explained to her. At that point she already knows that whenever she awakes there'll be a 1/3 chance that it's Monday and the coin had landed Heads, a 1/3 chance that it's Tuesday and the coin landed Tails and a 1/3 chance that it's Tuesaday and the coin landed Heads.
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so on sunday when the philosopher explains sleeping beauty will b e correct if she says that 'there is a 1/3 probability that the coin will have been tails'?
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On January 05 2013 02:52 Boblion wrote:
It is only true if the coin is fair... another concept... but does perfect fairness exists ? That's a question for you Kukaracha.
It's a good question, true. Let's stay on the track of fantasy settings though!
On January 05 2013 02:52 Boblion wrote:
Dude that's where you are getting lost. We are discussing in this thread a "fantasy" problem (its called math for a reason lol) whereas you want to discuss the result of a real coin flip. Now i have to tell you that irl you don't make the rules except if you are god or some crazy shit lol. You have no fucking idea about the fairness of your coin and its "rules", hence all the empirical rolls and shit. You could also use a bit of basic physics knowledge and weight your coin etc... anyway the result is that you will never know the exact "rules" whereas in a fantasy problem you are MAKING the rules.
But would you deny that we make many, many educated guesses in real-life settings? Poker, stock exchange... It's true that the coin example would be flawed IRL because it can't be calculated accurately enough, but my questions remain.
On January 05 2013 02:52 Boblion wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2013 02:29 Kukaracha wrote:
In fact, if the proportions are a division of an infinite number, how can you divide an infinite number ?
Classic Kukaracha, a random question completly unrelated.
I personally find that it is an interesting question and I believe that people who have studied maths could provide a sort of answer, no?
On January 05 2013 02:52 Boblion wrote:
Oh god you are stuck in a an infinite loop of auto mindfuck it seems. I can't do anything for you lol. As i said you are STERILE.
* I am FUN
Btw I call bullshit on that poll, I'm obviously awesome. But I don't want to derail this any further (sorry sam!zdat).
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EPT
