Dreamhack [E-Sports Prospectus]

+ Show Spoiler [Projecting a game result] +

A player's expected score is his probability of winning. Thus an expected score of 0.75 could represent a 75% chance of winning and 25% chance of losing.

If a game has been played, a win is equal to an expected score of 1.0 and a lose is equal to an expected score of 0.0. If a game has not been played, an expected score E is determined for each match-up. It is calculated using an the TLPD.I rating of the two players in the match using the following formula,

,
where and

Example: NASL day 4-5 game 3 is a matchup between IdrA (2297) and PainUser (2000). Expected score of IdrA in this matchup is 0.85. In the other words, IdrA is expected to win 85% of games he played against PainUser, based solely on their TLPD.I rating.

An aside on the ELO formula: Rating spread of 100 means the better player is twice as likely to win the matchup. Rating spread of 200 means about three times as likely. Rating spread of 400 means about ten times as likely.

+ Show Spoiler [Projecting record and points] +

All match-ups in NASL divisional play is best-of-3 (bo3). A player's record in NASL is the number of division matchup won by the player. A player's points in NASL are the number of individual game wins minus the individual game loses of the player in divisional play. Record has a value range between 0 and 9 and points have a value range between -18 and 18. If a matchup has been played, the record and points of that matchup are the actual results, otherwise the following formulas are used:

Each match-up is a bo3 with game 3 not played if the results are already determined (WW or LL). The possible winning permutations then are WLW, WW, LWW, with the possible losing permutations of a bo3 are WLL, LL, LWL. Projected record R is determined using expected value E for a win and 1-E:

Projected Record = expected value of WLW or WW or LWW 
R = E * (1-E) * E + E * E + (1-E) * E  * E 
R = 2 * E * E * (1-E) + E * E 

The projected points P is the number of games won minus the games lost in all permutations:

Projected Points = Expected value of WW, LL, WLW, WLL, LWW, LWL
P = 2 * EE - 2 * (1-E)(1-E) + E(1-E)E - E(1-E)(1-E) + (1-E)EE - (1-E)E(1-E)
P = 2 * [ E(1-E)(1-E) + EE(1-E) + EE + (1-E)(1-E) ]

Example: Continuing the previous example of Day 4-5 game 3, the projected record of IdrA for this matchup is .94 with 1.57 point; and the projected record of Painuser for this matchup is .06 with -1.57 point. Notice that .94 + .06 = 1 and 1.57 + (-1.57) = 0 as expected.

,
where and

Formula adjustment for Prospectus v2

where R_B' = R_B + Elo.against.A.race and R_A' = R_A + Elo.against.B.race

• Group A: Strelok, NaNiwa
  
• Group B: MorroW, DIMAGA (wins tie-break over BRAT_OK)
  
• Group C: Kas, IdrA
  
• Group D: MC, Sen
  
• Group E: Moon, HuK
  
• Group F: ThorZaIN, July (wins tie-break over HasuObs)
  
• Group G: elfi, GoOdy
  
• Group H: Bomber, MaNa

Group A			
Player		Record	Map
Strelok		4-1	(9-3)
Naniwa		4-1	(8-4)
Ret		3-2	(7-5)
Moman		2-3	(5-7)
Jimpo		1-4	(3-8)
Tyler 		1-4	(3-9)

Group B			
Player		Record	Map
Morrow		4-1	(8-4)
DiMAGA		3-2	(7-5)
Brat_ok		3-2	(7-5)
Nightend	2-3	(5-7)
Socke		2-3	(5-7)
DieSTar		1-4	(3-9)

Group C			
Player		Record	Map
Kas		4-1	(9-3)
IdrA		4-1	(8-4)
SaSe		3-2	(6-6)
Naama		2-3	(5-7)
merz		1-4	(3-9)
Grubby		1-4	(4-8)

Group D			
Player		Record	Map
MC		4-1	(9-2)
Sen		4-1	(8-4)
TT1		3-2	(6-6)
Adelscott	2-3	(5-6)
ClouD		2-3	(5-7)
Naugrim		0-5	(2-10)

Group E			
Player		Record	Map
Moon		3-2	(8-4)
Huk		3-2	(8-5)
Tarson		3-2	(7-5)
LaLush		2-3	(6-6)
Bischu		2-3	(5-7)
Fury		1-4	(3-9)

Group F			
Player		Record	Map
Thorzain	4-1	(8-4)
July		3-2	(8-5)
Hasuobs		3-2	(7-5)
SjoW		2-3	(6-6)
Machine		1-4	(5-7)
Sushi		1-4	(3-9)

Group G			
Player		Record	Map
elfi		4-1	(9-3)
Goody		4-1	(8-4)
White-Ra	3-2	(7-5)
BYOC		2-3	(5-7)
Jinro		1-4	(3-8)
PredY		1-4	(3-9)

Group H			
Player		Record	Map
Bomber*		4-1	(8-4)
Mana		4-1	(9-3)
Happy		3-2	(7-4)
BYOC		2-3	(5-7)
Haypro		2-3	(4-8)
Xlord		1-4	(2-9)
*No TLPD.I Elo, replaced with TLPD.K Elo 

1. Top2: How many of the 16 advancing players did the Prospectus called correctly?
   
2. Order: How does the projected player group-play ordering compare with reality?
   If the Prospectus called ABCDEF but the actual ranking are BCAEDF, it is said to incurred 2 ordering error.
   
3. Records: How accurate are the projected records compared to the actual group results?
   
4. Maps: How close are players' total map wins and loses compared to the projection?