I've bet 7 units on Grubby @ 5.010. Interesting that these odds have started so high on Grubby in my opinion. He's not played SC2 as long as Moon but he is improving very quickly, I've watched his stream a bit and I like what I see. Maybe Moon is a slight favourite with his more experience in SC2 but since Grubby is now playing this full time I think there is a lot of value in a bet on Grubby at this price. Grubby has now dropped to below 4.00!
Vibe vs TLO
I've bet 7 units on Vibe @ 3.520. I think this will be a good value bet. Its my opinion that Pinnacle are opening many of these lines with the prices of favourites too low and the underdogs too high. I do believe TLO will win this match most of the time, but Vibe has to beat TLO 28.41% of the time for this bet to be profitable.
Artosis vs Sheth
I've bet 20 units on Artosis @ 8.880. I can't believe that I got these odds. When I saw the lines this was the first bet I took as fast as I could since the line was obviously going to go down, and after my bet it moved to 8.1 and by the time I took the screenshot it was 7.720. Rediculous price for Artosis, and I'm sure I will get the opportunity crossbook on Sheth later at a price to guarentee me a profit if I so choose to do so. That was another reason I bet twice my limit, since I was 99% sure that I will be able to crossbook in a day or two.
Fenix vs Kiwikaki
No bet here for me yet. Odds have Kiwi a big favourite and thats probably justified on recent form. I'm a big Fenix fan but his play the last two months just hasn't been what I expect of him and my faith in him has cost he a few units over that period. Good strong performance from Kiwi at MLG too but really short odds. Might bet later if they change.
Rainbow vs MorroW
I've bet 8 units on MorroW @ 1.926. Pinnicle has them both at 1.926 at the time of writing this, I put MorroW a favourite though. My main thoughts being Jinro > Rainbow and MorroW looked good against Jinro in the TSL, and before i hear "lol baneling busts", even in the game he lost he got behind by a distance and still made a really good fight of it.
So a summary of my bets:
7 units on Grubby @ 5.010 7 units on Vibe @ 3.520 20 units on Artosis @ 8.880 <- lol 8 units on MorroW @ 1.926
Post up your thoughts and what bets you've made and your jealousy I got Artosis at such big odds :D
Also if you want to join our skype group for SC2 betting discussion PM me your skype id.
Since these games are casted using replays couldn't there be huge potential for the players themselves/people they know to make bets already knowing the results? I'm kinda surprised that a betting company would allow people to bet on the results of something which they presumably don't have the exact date/time of when the match will happen.
The Artosis one does seem to be the pick of the bets. Frankly the Grubby bet doesn't seem worthwhile. Although he obviously has potential, he hasn't shown any landmark performances in the tournaments he's entered so far, whereas Moon has demonstrated really top level play, especially in ZvP.
On April 08 2011 02:09 Antimage wrote: Can someone link me to an explanation on how the betting works? I'm getting mad confused...
You multiply your bet by the odd, it's that simple. For instance, if artosis wins he gains (if his unit is a $) 20$*8.88. So the higher the odd is, the more risky the bet is (in theory) and the more you win. Then we have handicaps (+1.5 or -1.5) Betting on artosis +1.5 means you add 1.5 to artosis' result of the bo5, so you win if artosis loses 3-2 and loses if artosis loses 3-1 or 3-0.
I bet a lot on sports 8 months ago, but since betting is possible on starcraft 2 I don't bet on sports anymore (or very rarely) and only on starcraft. And my winrate is like 3 times higher For someone like me who watches a lot of sc2, you can be ahead (or more informed) of the bookmakers, which is nearly impossible on traditional sports.
Anyway, I agree with all the OP's bets
edit : the bets on GSL finals are interesting too.
On April 08 2011 02:09 Antimage wrote: Can someone link me to an explanation on how the betting works? I'm getting mad confused...
You multiply your bet by the odd, it's that simple. For instance, if artosis wins he gains (if his unit is a $) 20$*8.88. So the higher the odd is, the more risky the bet is (in theory) and the more you win. Then we have handicaps (+1.5 or -1.5) Betting on artosis +1.5 means you add 1.5 to artosis' result of the bo5, so you win if artosis loses 3-2 and loses if artosis loses 3-1 or 3-0.
On April 08 2011 01:53 BasedSwag wrote: Since these games are casted using replays couldn't there be huge potential for the players themselves/people they know to make bets already knowing the results? I'm kinda surprised that a betting company would allow people to bet on the results of something which they presumably don't have the exact date/time of when the match will happen.
They take the bets down 3-4 days before the replays are shown, I guess thats to make sure they are taken down before they are actually played
I've put 100 units on Sheth @1.333 to go with my 20 units on Artosis @ 8.880
so if Artosis wins I am +57.6 units and if Sheth wins I am +13.3 units
Pretty sick considering my normal max bet size is 10 units. (I don't recommend betting over your max size, I only did here because I was almost certain that I would be able to freeroll it.)
I've also spent quite a bit of time over the last few days watching Grubby's stream and I didn't feel as confident in that bet anymore, so I took the opportuninty to cross book since the odds on Moon had gone up.
on Grubby I bet 7 units @ 5.010 and now Moon, 27.3 units @ 1.262
If Grubby wins I net +0.7 and if Moon wins +0.2
Tiny guarentee there which I'm happy to take with my feelings on that match now.
It's a way of expressing your bet size in comparative terms to other bettors who bet on a higher or lower scale to you, where 10 units would typically be your max bet size, so 1 unit to each individual could be different, but when used on a scale of 1 to 10 you can see how much that individual is willing to risk/how strong he feels about a bet. It's also allows you to keep the size of your gambling private
Oh interesting ... is this anonymous type of unit thing used in most online gambling sites? This is the first time I've ever heard of something like this.
It really is a bit disappointing that this sort of stuff is illegal in the US. I would totally be into something like this if it were available here. Same with the PokerStrategy stuff for TSL.
That said, I am pretty sure any match that is going to be Korean vs NA server player is going to be very, very hard for the Koreans unless there is a huge skill differential. The NA vs EU ones I think are less important, but the NA to KR server lag has to be factored in when betting, IMO.
On April 09 2011 07:16 lac29 wrote: Oh interesting ... is this anonymous type of unit thing used in most online gambling sites? This is the first time I've ever heard of something like this.
It's very common for tipsters to give their tips on a scale of 1 to 10 units, here are my 2 favourite sports betting tips sites that both use a 1-10 unit scale
I'm into betting and it suprises me that you can actually bet on e-sports, how did i not realise this. I always thought posts before were like liquibet and not actually financial! Brilliant!
It seems to me that betting on starcraft you can find good value bets more easily than on most sports if you get in quickly, because it seems like the knowledge is not as vast as it is on a sport like football (soccer). That artosis/sheth crossbooking being an example.
Do you often find this is the case, where it takes a while for bets to reach an accurate value, or was this more of a 1 off? Also what other sites do e-sports betting for your crossbooking, i had a quick look on google but not sure? I did notice paddypower have a section for it, but dont have any odds yet, maybe in the future?
At the moment pinnacle is the only site that you can really bet esports on, I used to bet esports on xlbet but that was a small site and went bust and took my money with it. Very happy with pinnacle though, a trustworthy site and has much better odds.
The lines are normally not bad, I'd never seen one as far off as the artosis one. odds are out for the 2nd day of NASL but I didn't make a blog because I thought the lines were quite fair and I only made one bet (qxc -1.5)
yeh even though i came late and bet on artosis at 7.7, i still got an enormous freeroll. And at the end of the day its a pvz and artosis is a pretty smart guy, wouldn't be ridiculously surprised if he wins
On April 09 2011 10:47 kaisr wrote: yeh even though i came late and bet on artosis at 7.7, i still got an enormous freeroll. And at the end of the day its a pvz and artosis is a pretty smart guy, wouldn't be ridiculously surprised if he wins
Go look at Sheth's ZvP statistics Sheth is #1 NA ZvP... its like what, almost 80% win rate ZvP. I believe its the highest ZvP of any pro gamer period.
Interesting thread, pretty cool that a lot of people are betting on sc2. I only started recently but have been doing exceptionally well.
Here are my positions for the first two NASL days:
4 units on Sen @ 1.556 3 units on Adelscott @ 1.649 8 units on Kas @ 1.98 1 unit on Goody +1.5 @ 2.37 5 units on Vibe +1.5 @ 2.04 5 units on Vibe @ 3.5 6 units on Kiwikaki @ 1.324 5 units on white-ra +1.5 @ 1.654 2 units on white-ra @ 2.81 2 units on moman +1.5 @ 2.36 4 units on Sheth @ 1.333
On April 09 2011 10:00 Insanious wrote: I really hope you can cross book on Sheth, because Sheth is going to HUUUUUUUUUUUURT artosis... surprised you put up 20 units.
On April 09 2011 09:44 I_Love_Bacon wrote: If your lowest bet is for 7 units, you should consider changing your unit value since that is just silly.
slight edit: There is no zvt/p that should be at more than +250, if there is there is always value there imo.
If you check my other blogs you will notice 7 units would have been quite a high bet there. I can't keep changing the scale with each blog post, otherwise the scale would be meaningless.
i also bet smallish on artosis and grubby and then crossbooked afterwards. got one unit on morrow (-127) vs rainbow. i think morrow should be favorable due to the delay the koreans have.
also bet small on moman vs qxc due to very good odds and qxc only being good at doing 1 base allins.
still thinking about whether to bet on fenix, mainly due to the very good odds ,but other than that no bet strikes me as obviously +EV
overall its pretty unclear how large the disadvantage of the koreans will be due to delay. if its very large (like it looked to me in TSL) then it could even be worth betting on incontrol for example.
EPT![[image loading]](http://i52.tinypic.com/b9dok6.png)
Sheth is #1 NA ZvP... its like what, almost 80% win rate ZvP. I believe its the highest ZvP of any pro gamer period.
