TSL3 Betting Tips!

What are decimal odds?
The odds I will be using are decimal odds,a quick introduction to how they work by using examples. Odds of 2.000 are are even odds, you bet 1 unit, you win 1 unit if your bet wins. The odds show what you would get back with a 1 unit bet, your winnings plus your original stake. You multiply your stake by the odds.
Examples:
a) bet 5 units at 1.600 and win, you get 8 units back (1.6x5), 5 for your stake, 3 in winnings.
b) bet 3 units at 4.000 and win, you get 12 units back (4x3), 3 for your original stake, 9 in winnings.

How much to bet?
You should bet in units, where 10 units is your max bet and 1 is your smallest. You would tend to bet 10 units when you feel the odds are strongly in your favour and is not a speculative bet (long odds, lets say 5 and above). The size of 1 unit is different for every gambler, it depends on the size of your bankroll and how careful you want to be, I would recommend that 1 unit is no more than 0.5% of your bankroll - for example if you have £100, a 10 unit bet would be £5, a 1 unit bet would be £0.50. This decreases your risk of blowing through your money quickly, and also helps combat against bad variance - a bad "run".

An interesting one here, a lot of sounds I'm hearing from top EU players are expecting NightEnd to be one of the first to knock one of the koreans out of the tournament, his odds have shortened, I believe he opened around 2.240 so most of the betting so far has been on him. I think its hard to know what just how good BoxeR will be. Therefore I won't be placing a bet on this match but watching it with a lot of interest.

When this bet opened it had the odds the other way round, and I bet 10 units on Tyler at 2.060. If the two were to meet in a random ladder game or in a one day tourney, I think it would be a close matchup, but preparation is where Tyler shines, he will study his opponent and have a build ready for each map and have his timings down. I would have probably bet Tyler if his odds were down around 1.6, so when I saw it open at over 2, I instantly bet my max before the odds came down, and I still recommend putting 8 units on him at his current price of 1.806.

I am a big fan of both these players, I believe they are both, on their day competing with the best in the world, Fenix's play recently hasn't been up to his normally stellar standards, since he broke his hand really. Sen has been quiet recently too in the foreign scene, I haven't heard much of him. I'd put Sen as a favourite but if Fenix is able to bring his form from before he broke his hand I feel this would be a close match. It's been a few months since Fenix bust up his hand so im hoping his top form is just around the corner, so I placed a small bet on Fenix of 4 units when the price was 2.740, so it seems since then others are placing their money on Sen. Personally i'd have set the line somewhere around Sen - 1.625, Fenix 2.30

No bet here for me yet, I feel its tougher to measure the skill difference between the non-koreans and koreans at this stage with little play between the two sets of players so far, FD has to be the favourite but I find it hard to set in my head just how much of a favourite he is. May try a bet on FD if his odds get longer but I doubt they will

I got a bet in on MC as soon as this opened when his odds were at 1.183, I find it really hard to see him losing a PvZ. Its a very tough matchup currently for zergs and MC is the number one protoss in the world to make, I can't see anything but a win for MC, I would bet him down to around 1.12

This has been the biggest mover I believe since the odds opened, where both players were around ~1.950, since then it appears all the moneys been going on White-Ra. I'm not going to bet this match though, as I believe the outcome will depend on which White-Ra we see, sometimes he will win 3 tourney in a weekend, the next he will seem to be off his game. Loner I feel had also shown inconsistent results through his SC2 career so far. Hoping for a White-Ra win tho, you cant help but love the fella.

So HuK got exactly what he didn't want, a non-korean and a protoss. The reason he didn't want this is because its a very volatile matchup and the non koreans are more unpredictable, which makes the game more of a gamble. This leads me to be tempted to but on a small bet with Hasu if his odds get any bigger, which it may so since HuK may receive quite a few fanboy bets. Currently though no bet

Really looking forward to this match. I have to put things in favour of Jinro though. Morrow is a great player and loves a macro style, same as Idra, but my opinion is that although great, he is not as good as Idra, and we have seen the results of Jinro/Idra's meetings. Tempted to put a medium sized bet on Jinro here, I don't think we will see many all in gambling type game, most likely macro games which both players prefer, but at which I feel Jinro will have better results.

101 MC______________5.480
102 NesTea___________7.540
103 MVP_____________9.040
104 Genius___________16.08
105 Jinro_____________17.080
106 IdrA______________17.080
107 NaDa____________18.090
108 FruitDealer________18.090
109 HuK_____________20.10
110 Kas______________22.110
111 BoxeR____________25.120
112 Sen______________27.130
113 Naniwa___________30.140
114 RET_____________30.140
115 NIGHTEND________35.170
116 MORROW_________50.240
117 HASUOBS________65.310
118 HAYPRO__________70.340
119 STRELOK_________75.360
120 WHITE-RA________80.390
121 TLO______________90.430
122 Mondragon________100.480
123 CrunCher_________111.540
124 Fenix____________121.580
125 ThorZaIN_________131.630
126 Tyler_____________141.680
127 Loner____________141.680
128 qxc______________166.800
129 GoOdy___________191.920
130 Adel_____________242.160
131 Ciara___________242.160
132 ZeeRaX__________292.40