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basic probability questions

Blogs > Oxygen
Post a Reply
Oxygen
Profile Blog Joined November 2003
Canada3581 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-30 23:07:15
September 30 2010 23:05 GMT
#1
hi guys,

I've never taken a probability course and I don't know how to approach these questions systematically. I've included my own reasoning. I assume they're elementary for anyone that's taken an intro to probability course. I think I've helped out a fair share of people in math on these blogs so I hope someone can karma me.


In a box of m&ms,
24% are blue
20% orange
16% green
14% yellow
13% red
13% brown

What is the probability that at least one is blue?

+ Show Spoiler +


My reasoning would be let B be the space of 'pick blue', and then Pr('at least one blue') = (1-B^c)^3, where B^c is the complement of B. Could anyone formalize the "long" way of doing it?



What is the probability that the third M&M is red?

+ Show Spoiler +

it seems obvious that it would just be 13% ... am I missing something?





Workers are assigned to different tasks each month in a company.
55% of employees have less than or equal to 2 years of experience
32% have between three and five years
13% have more than five

Assume that teams of 3 employees are randomly formed. Dave is in such a team.

a) What is the prob. that one of Dave's teammates has
1. two or fewer years of experience?
2. moe than five years of experience?

b) What is the prob. considering both of Dave's two teammates,
1. both have more than two years
2. exactly one has more than five years of experience
3. at least one has more than five years of experience?

+ Show Spoiler +

For this question I just see myself drawing a bunch of branching diagrams, but I would like to see a more formal approach to it.


I know set notation and basic probability notation, but I don't know enough or have enough time to logic through it right now, and I'd like to help a friend. Hope someone can help me out.

Cheers





Dont drink and derive. TSL: Made with Balls.
stochastic
Profile Joined April 2010
United States16 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-30 23:39:53
September 30 2010 23:13 GMT
#2
What is the probability that at least one is blue?

1 - P(0 blue), where P(0 blue) is found according to the binomial distribution with P(blue) = .24, P(not blue) = .76

P(0 blue) = (n choose 0) * (.76)^n * (.24) ^ 0 = (.76)^n, where n is the total number of mnm's in a box



What is the probability that the third M&M is red?

If it is sampling with replacement (whenever you take one out, you put it back before pulling out another), then you are right, 13% would be correct.

If we assume you eat the mnm you take out each time, then you could find this in terms of n if you proceeded by looking at the probability of what happens on the third mnm in each possible case of stuff happening in the first 2 mnm's (again, break it down into the binomial case by using red or not red).


+ Show Spoiler +
a) What is the prob. that one of Dave's teammates has
1. two or fewer years of experience?
2. moe than five years of experience?

b) What is the prob. considering both of Dave's two teammates,
1. both have more than two years
2. exactly one has more than five years of experience
3. at least one has more than five years of experience?


I would approach this with the binomial distribution, using the appropriate success/failure probabilities from the info given.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
XsebT
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Denmark2980 Posts
September 30 2010 23:14 GMT
#3
Just activate the infinite improbability drive and your answers should be quite relative.

+ Show Spoiler +
Sorry
화이팅
Shidoshi
Profile Joined May 2010
United States3 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-30 23:59:42
September 30 2010 23:42 GMT
#4
For the m&m questions it would depend on if there was replacement or without replacement. but pretty much stochastic has the idea

For a)1 im assuming when you say one of dave teammates you mean exactly one. this is the prob that one has less than 2 years and one does not which is (.55)(.45)x2 since there are 2 employees and there can be two cases. same idea for 2.

For b)1 both have more than 2 years is 1 - prob of having less than 2 years which is .45, since it is both of them it is (.45)(.45)
2 is the same as a)1
3) at least one has more than 5 years is the same as the m&m question. 1 - prob both have less than 5 years which is 1 - (.87)(.87)

hope that helps
"Be the change you want to see in the world." -Ghandi
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