|
I have here two card games. I give everybody 5 ESPORTS dollars to play these games with.
The first card game is quite simple. There are three cards. One of them is the Ace of Spades. The other two are other cards that are not important. You may put any amount of your ESPORTS money on this game. If you win, you get your bet back + 2 times your bet (so if you bet 1 dollar and win you get 3 dollars back).
The other card game is also pretty simple. There are three cards, once again, and you must once again find the Ace of Spades. This time, I'll tell you that one of the cards is not the Ace of Spades. I will be perfectly honest. However, because of this information, you will be paid at 1:1 instead of 2:1. Thus, expected value for both games is the same.
You must bet all of your ESPORTS dollars in these two games to get any back. How do you choose to play?
Poll: Game 1$5 (13) 41% $0 (10) 31% $2 (5) 16% $3 (2) 6% $1 (1) 3% $4 (1) 3% 32 total votes Your vote: Game 1 (Vote): $0
(Vote): $1
(Vote): $2
(Vote): $3
(Vote): $4
(Vote): $5
Poll: Game 2?$5 (11) 39% $0 (7) 25% $3 (6) 21% $1 (2) 7% $2 (1) 4% $4 (1) 4% 28 total votes Your vote: Game 2? (Vote): $0
(Vote): $1
(Vote): $2
(Vote): $3
(Vote): $4
(Vote): $5
2 is not Monty Hall style. I tell you before you pick that it's not this one or that one.
The condition is you have to play with all your money.
|
$0 on game 1.
$5 on game 2.
Better chance to win game 2 right?
|
Game 2... both bets seem to be at equal odds but game 2 is smaller risk - less of a chance of losing all of my ESPORTS dollars.
(Unless in game 2 if you tell me which is not the ace of spades AFTER I make my first choice... in which case game 2 gives a better payout)
|
|
|
$5 bucks on both. (I got sponsors yo!)
|
4 then 1 because that's how I roll :o
|
5$ on g1 to get it over with, then back to hon
|
|
|
As the lame conservative better that I am,
$2 on game 1
$3 on game 2.
|
On May 05 2010 00:58 hoborg wrote:
Game 2... both bets seem to be at equal odds but game 2 is smaller risk - less of a chance of losing all of my ESPORTS dollars.
(Unless in game 2 if you tell me which is not the ace of spades AFTER I make my first choice... in which case game 2 gives a better payout)
NVM, I understood your post wrong...
|
Germany2896 Posts
Your description of the second game is a bit sloppy. At which time do you tell people which card doesn't win? After they chose(Monty Hall style) or before?
If 2 is not monty hall style I won't play and just keep my 5 E$.
Plating EV=0 games is useless since you only fall to gambler's ruin. And even if they were better than than, as long as you demand that I bet significantly more than the Kelly criterion I won't bet either.
|
Pretty much what MoC said.
I would only bother to play all my money on game 2 if it is Monty Hall style.
Otherwise i can always heads or tail with friends.
1/3 to win 3 or 1/2 to win 2x is useless.
|
I normally wouldn't bet on something like that either, MoC described my reasons well enough.
However, if I were betting:
$2 on game 1
$3 on game 2
+ Show Spoiler [reason] +lowest chance to lose money overall
Btw, a single poll with options
5/0, 4/1, 3/2, 2/3, 1/4, 5/0
would have helped avoiding inconsistencies 
|
On May 05 2010 01:34 incnone wrote:
$2 on game 1
$3 on game 2.
Seeing as you have to bet all your dollars this seems like the best option.
|
On May 05 2010 01:36 MasterOfChaos wrote:
Your description of the second game is a bit sloppy. At which time do you tell people which card doesn't win? After they chose(Monty Hall style) or before?
If 2 is not monty hall style I won't play and just keep my 5 E$.
Plating EV=0 games is useless since you only fall to gambler's ruin. And even if they were better than than, as long as you demand that I bet significantly more than the Kelly criterion I won't bet either.
You're right, I should've specified better
-2 is not Monty Hall style. I tell you before you pick that it's not this one or that one.
The condition is you have to play with all your money. I'm fully aware of gambler's ruin. This is just testing something else out ^^
|
On May 05 2010 01:47 spinesheath wrote:I normally wouldn't bet on something like that either, MoC described my reasons well enough. However, if I were betting: $2 on game 1 $3 on game 2 + Show Spoiler [reason] +lowest chance to lose money overall Btw, a single poll with options 5/0, 4/1, 3/2, 2/3, 1/4, 5/0 would have helped avoiding inconsistencies
I intentionally did it this way ^^
|
So you wanted to know how many people voded for two random values that don't add up to 5?
|
On May 05 2010 01:36 MasterOfChaos wrote:
Your description of the second game is a bit sloppy. At which time do you tell people which card doesn't win? After they chose(Monty Hall style) or before?
If 2 is not monty hall style I won't play and just keep my 5 E$.
Plating EV=0 games is useless since you only fall to gambler's ruin. And even if they were better than than, as long as you demand that I bet significantly more than the Kelly criterion I won't bet either.
meh, don't be so risk averse and rational, that's boring.
5$ on game 1!
|
On May 05 2010 02:24 spinesheath wrote:
So you wanted to know how many people voded for two random values that don't add up to 5?
why not
|
On May 05 2010 03:51 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2010 02:24 spinesheath wrote:
So you wanted to know how many people voded for two random values that don't add up to 5? why not
Just asking.
|
On May 05 2010 04:21 spinesheath wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2010 03:51 Caller wrote:On May 05 2010 02:24 spinesheath wrote:
So you wanted to know how many people voded for two random values that don't add up to 5? why not Just asking.
^^
|
5 in game one
0 in game two
game one has a greater risk/profit ratio am i right?
33.33% vs 50% is about similar enough for me
i'd go with all in game 1
|
$3 in game 1 ($1 in each choice = 100% chance to get $3)
$2 in game 2 ($1 in each choice = 100% chance to get $1)
This leaves me with $4 of the $5 that I didn't have. Sure I'll only have $4 but before reading this thread I had $0 so I win either way!
|
risk/profit is the same
risk is greater in game 1 but profit is greater as well which is why logically it shouldn't matter which one you choose but people should pick game 1 because people make their choices based on the profits without due consideration for the risks
i think this is what caller is looking for
|
you know you guys tend to behave very oddly compared to homo economnicus
|
$2 on the first
$3 on the second
Seems like the best way to keep potential losses to a minimum. I'm not much of a gambler, I prefer to play it safe most of the time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
