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NBA FINALS 2019 KEYS TO GAME 3
NBA Canada
The injury report - Kevin Durant (calf) [might return game 4] - Andre Iguodala (calf) - Kevon Looney (collarbone) [out for season] - Klay Thompson (hamstring)
DeMarcus Cousins' impact - only 8 mins in game 1 - starter in game 2, 11p/10r/6a/2b - only 6 weeks removed from major injury
Ball movement As alluded to before, Golden State assisted on 34 of its 38 (89.5%) made field goals in the game while Toronto assisted on just 17 of its 35 (48.6%) made field goals. It's just the fourth time this postseason that the Raptors have dished out 17 or fewer assists, and the team is 1-3 in such games. The one win? The grind-it-out 92-90 win over the 76ers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Kawhi's return to Oracle May 14, 2017.
It's been over two years since Leonard's last appearance at Oracle Arena but it was certainly a memorable one for a number of reasons. In Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, Leonard torched the Warriors for 26 points (7-13 FG, 11-11 FT) and eight rebounds, doing so in under 24 minutes as an ankle injury he suffered just four minutes into the second half would ultimately end his season.
At the time, the Spurs had built a 23-point lead over the Warriors, who would come back to earn a two-point win.
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On June 05 2019 23:31 JimmiC wrote: Casinos (and other places that accept bets) also move the line with the betting to keep 50% on each side. Many pro gamblers attempt to take advantage of this by ending up with betting on both teams at different scores or rates.It is easier to see in long bets, for example if someone bet on toronto to win at the start of the season 100$ at 10-1 (all made up numbers for ez maths) then when GS and TO make the final they bet 500 on gs 1-1. So if TO wins they make 500 (1000 win on 100 bet on TO 500 loss on GS) or if GS wins they make 400 (500 win on gs and 100 loss on GS). So instead of only having a chance to win 1000 they made it so they can win either way.
I would argue that hedging your bet (which you’re describing) is not really the same as betting both sides due to a shifting line. In the former you’re guaranteed money either way whereas if a line swings significantly and you bet both sides you can still lose both bets if something weird happens
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On June 06 2019 07:36 KOFgokuon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2019 23:31 JimmiC wrote: Casinos (and other places that accept bets) also move the line with the betting to keep 50% on each side. Many pro gamblers attempt to take advantage of this by ending up with betting on both teams at different scores or rates.It is easier to see in long bets, for example if someone bet on toronto to win at the start of the season 100$ at 10-1 (all made up numbers for ez maths) then when GS and TO make the final they bet 500 on gs 1-1. So if TO wins they make 500 (1000 win on 100 bet on TO 500 loss on GS) or if GS wins they make 400 (500 win on gs and 100 loss on GS). So instead of only having a chance to win 1000 they made it so they can win either way. I would argue that hedging your bet (which you’re describing) is not really the same as betting both sides due to a shifting line. In the former you’re guaranteed money either way whereas if a line swings significantly and you bet both sides you can still lose both bets if something weird happens
You are right, I just thought it was easier to explain that getting both sides of a game and how the middle becomes your big win and the outsides because a break even.
To: TT
It is fairly common knowledge but actually pulling it off is pretty hard because you have to know which way a line will move on the both sides, and get the first part right on the hedging.
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Patrick Mccaw comes off the bench for the Raptors before Norm Powell... hmmmm...... i wonder what's up with Norm...
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Thanks JimmiC. Before I was skeptical but curious, now I'll officially stay away from betting.
Raptors should really pull away fast. Damn if there ever was a time to beat Warriors, this is it!
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FVV with a rainbow 3 to celebrate pride month.
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Not that the Warriors are doing themselves many favors this game, but, goddamn, these refs have been atrocious.
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Refs with one make-up call after another.
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There is a massive party extending about 4km north//south on the main street that cuts through the middle of Toronto. God help us if the Raptors actually win the NBA championship.
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On June 06 2019 13:07 JimmyJRaynor wrote: There is a massive party extending about 4km north//south on the main street that cuts through the middle of Toronto. God help us if the Raptors actually win the NBA championship. Eh, I don't see it happening. Tonight's win is not replicable. Klay and, potentially, Durant will be back next game. The refs aren't going to screw over the Warriors as badly in the future. The Warriors bench won't shoot as badly next time. And the Raptors aren't going to make nearly as many ridiculous shots. Damned near everything went the Raptors' way tonight.
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On June 06 2019 07:04 Twinkle Toes wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2019 23:31 JimmiC wrote: Casinos (and other places that accept bets) also move the line with the betting to keep 50% on each side. Many pro gamblers attempt to take advantage of this by ending up with betting on both teams at different scores or rates.It is easier to see in long bets, for example if someone bet on toronto to win at the start of the season 100$ at 10-1 (all made up numbers for ez maths) then when GS and TO make the final they bet 500 on gs 1-1. So if TO wins they make 500 (1000 win on 100 bet on TO 500 loss on GS) or if GS wins they make 400 (500 win on gs and 100 loss on GS). So instead of only having a chance to win 1000 they made it so they can win either way. Oh i see. I saw a CSI episode on this a long time ago. Is this common knowledge? If so, this would make the betting industry unreliable or unstable.
It actually makes it much more stable from a casino's POV, the number of people who "middle" is exceptionally low, and the number of dollars represented in that zone are also small. Remember, its also possible for someone "middling" to lose both bets.
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On June 06 2019 13:14 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2019 13:07 JimmyJRaynor wrote: There is a massive party extending about 4km north//south on the main street that cuts through the middle of Toronto. God help us if the Raptors actually win the NBA championship. Eh, I don't see it happening. Tonight's win is not replicable. Klay and, potentially, Durant will be back next game. The refs aren't going to screw over the Warriors as badly in the future. The Warriors bench won't shoot as badly next time. And the Raptors aren't going to make nearly as many ridiculous shots. Damned near everything went the Raptors' way tonight.
It's more of the lack of Klay that Lowry and Danny are always open for the tre. Many of the threes Lowry was taking today the defender was giving him too much space and Iggy for the Dubs is gonna be bad shooting wise regardless. .
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This was the anti game second half. That gane the raps couldn't make a open shot, tonight they couldnt miss. If they level off it should be tight, if durrant comes back anywhere close to 100% it is ging to be super tough
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On June 06 2019 13:14 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2019 13:07 JimmyJRaynor wrote: There is a massive party extending about 4km north//south on the main street that cuts through the middle of Toronto. God help us if the Raptors actually win the NBA championship. Eh, I don't see it happening. Tonight's win is not replicable. Klay and, potentially, Durant will be back next game. The refs aren't going to screw over the Warriors as badly in the future. The Warriors bench won't shoot as badly next time. And the Raptors aren't going to make nearly as many ridiculous shots. Damned near everything went the Raptors' way tonight. meh, the Raptors outplayed Golden State and deserved to win the game.
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On June 06 2019 13:14 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2019 13:07 JimmyJRaynor wrote: There is a massive party extending about 4km north//south on the main street that cuts through the middle of Toronto. God help us if the Raptors actually win the NBA championship. Eh, I don't see it happening. Tonight's win is not replicable. Klay and, potentially, Durant will be back next game. The refs aren't going to screw over the Warriors as badly in the future. The Warriors bench won't shoot as badly next time. And the Raptors aren't going to make nearly as many ridiculous shots. Damned near everything went the Raptors' way tonight. I don't think I can disagree with a take more, aside from the Klay and Durant possibility.
First, the refs were great for the Dubs. Sure they were pretty bad overall, and in the past I've thought they got screwed a lot, but I don't think they earned more than 6fts tonight. And the laughable charges.
Second Steph going that nuclear is also hard to replicate, and without it they get smashed.
Third Looney still is out for the series and if Klay/Durant aren't going at a high % its going to be a slog.
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On June 06 2019 13:14 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2019 13:07 JimmyJRaynor wrote: There is a massive party extending about 4km north//south on the main street that cuts through the middle of Toronto. God help us if the Raptors actually win the NBA championship. Eh, I don't see it happening. Tonight's win is not replicable. Klay and, potentially, Durant will be back next game. The refs aren't going to screw over the Warriors as badly in the future. The Warriors bench won't shoot as badly next time. And the Raptors aren't going to make nearly as many ridiculous shots. Damned near everything went the Raptors' way tonight. First, the Warriors bench is dreadful talent-wise, second you can always also say that Curry will not score 47 again (similarly to Lebron's 50 point one-man carry last finals). These Warriors + Klay are still at a disadvantage vs the Raptors, believe it or not. People overestimate the Warriors' ability to outplay the Raptors' defense consistently. Yes, they play well, yes, they have an unbelievable trio, but they also have the garbage next to them that can be exploited.
Of course if Durant comes back it's another story.
Edit: On another note I'm starting to buy in on the Curry hype (not the hype that says he's an MVP contender, the one that says he's a top 5 all-time offensive player). I was always more on the "Curry is a rich man's Damian Lillard" train, especially given his way better supporting cast, but Lillard couldn't score that efficiently on these Raptors. The Nurkic-less Blazers are not better than these Klay-less Durant-less Warriors, but if all it takes to "enable" Curry is a couple of good passers, good coaching and a couple of good screeners, that's just impressive. It's not exactly high requirements. His ability and willingness to do all sorts of things off the ball as a star PG are inspiring. That being said I still believe the league hasn't fully adapted defensively and will get better as time passes if we see a rise in Curry-like players, but that alone already says a lot about his impact on the game.
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Imma share this:
- KD may be out for game 4. Calf pain still present. If he plays game 4, its a desperation move
- Klay 50/50, but will likely play game 4
- Cousins is done being significant this series.
- Bogut is untapped this series. He could tilt this back in GSW's favor
- Lowry is fool's gold. He may have put up good numbers and made key plays down the stretch, but its the blunders that we have to pay attention to, namely that bad pass to Green leading to a Curry steal, the ill-advised dunk late in the fourth, the fould troubles, and the constant blitz drive that always miss. His saving grace was offensive boards and the clutch replies to keep the lead above 10 when GSW was making a run at the end of regulation. These blunders are not incidental or judgment ones, but are part of Lowry's game style, and if not neutralized may cost them some games and the championship.
- The game was closer than it seems. There was a stretch when 2 goaltends where uncalled and Bogut had a 50/50 on the tip in. That would have cut the margin to 4 with GSW with the tempo
- Even with KD out but Klay in and Iggy functional, the Warriors are still very slightly favored. Unless something epic happens for Toronto, like Kawhi putting up a Kobesque 80-point game, Siakam not missing again, and Lowry playing his contract worth.
On a personal note, this game proves Curry's legacy to me. To add to Zenith, Curry is goat shooter, and legit on defense. He seems to have shed of his stupid 2016 antics. And although I cant help but notice some not nice guy rearing its head on rare occasions under the cookie-cutter nice guy media-managed persona but it proves to me that he is an all-time great with the correct team-guy attitude. I understand that he also has a legacy to build and a brand to protect but hey, I dont look at Curry as a role model and I dont plan to be his friend, so those stuff are irrelevant, unless he does something criminal.
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Raptors team split for g3:
52/45/95.
WOW!
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Btw, I wont post the stuff here, but Pierce is a legit moron troll. Ive always hated him as a player. He was self-absorbed and thought he was my boy Kobe. But now I hate him more as an attention-whore brainless cringey moron "analyst".
Fuck Paul Pierce.
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