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On November 27 2016 06:21 Acrofales wrote:Errata I noticed I put an [N] in the topic for normal, but [N] is for newbie. This is not a newbie game. While new players are welcome, there is no coaching available.
IIRC, [M][N] is for mini normal; newbie games are [M][N][W] mini normal newbie. So no issue.
To confirm, variable day = deadline will move; day ends with hammer and next deadline based on nightpost timestamp?
What is the planned initial starting time/deadline?
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On November 27 2016 17:09 Acrofales wrote:
Because it's a small game, I hope to start by December 1, but I don't know how long signups will take: it will start when it's full.
Sorry I wasn't clear, I was asking about the time of day that you intend to use as your start time -- which will dictate the deadlines for at least the first N+D cycle. Yes, I am aware that the time could subsequently shift due to instant majority lynch mechanics -- it's just that I have reduced availability this upcoming Fri/Sat and just wanted to see if I can safely and responsibly sign in now, or if I should hold off.
I don't see any rules prohibiting the doc from protecting themselves, or protecting the same target consecutive nights. Please clarify if allowed to do so.
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No replacements this game, folks. derp
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if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1.
45% raw odds of fulfilling prerequisites for the plan, awesome!
we can confirm up to five players as town
sweet, even if no redchecks, we can find all five town by D3, which PoE the other two for confscum!
good job!
such plan much wow
any NA still ard or am I stuck waiting for EU to wake up?
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On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote:
pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. In what number system?
I made absurdly town-favored assumptions and got 45%.
Assume scum ignore blue claims and always blindly shoot into town at random.
Night 0 scum kills 1/5 of us. 3/5 = 60% to hit VT, ensuring both doc and cop survive to Day 1.
Assume no mislynch on Day 1.
Night 1 scum kills 1/4 of us. 1/4 = 25% to hit doc, i.e. 75% for doc to survive to Day 2.
Raw odds 75% * 60% = 45% overall to satisfy prereqs "of if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1"
That's under the most town-favored set of assumptions. Even lower probability in any actual reality.
I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring What a convenient thing to say now.
On December 06 2016 07:48 Koshi wrote:
Hi. Copclaim pls? If this was a rxn test, I hope you got what you wanted.
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G'day folks. RIP Koshi.
It's iml mylo, so I'm not exactly raring to go tying nooses. And it's early in the day yet. But scumhunting can't wait. You got to work with what you have.
Tumblewood
Definitely fishy. As Chairman Ray points out, TW talks plan, gets it all wrong.
But what really sets the alarms off for me is his tone and progression.
TW is definitely aware that state of the game = D1 mylo, with his opening post.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 07:45 Tumblewood wrote:
oh hey we start at night
so I guess we're in Mylo already?
And then there's his plan:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 10:19 Tumblewood wrote:
so... plan?
cop checks N0 (get conftown or redcheck)
cop claims D1 (two conftown). lynch if redcheck
cop checks N1 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop
reveal check D2, doc claims D2 (four conftown). lynch if redcheck
cop checks N2 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop, probably dies
reveal check D3 (five conftown). lynch if redcheck
so throughout the game we can confirm up to five players as town if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. other possibilities are confirm 4 town and 1 mafia or 3 town and 2 mafia by D3.
I guess if cop or doc dies tonight we just play like normal
Several mechanical things about the plan rub me the wrong way here:- sells copchecks as conftown without deadcopflip
- sells high numbers of conftown, when
in all likelihood absolutely half of them are going to be dead conftown
- "D3 (five conftown)" sounds amazing, but is complete false advertising. Relies on (unreasonably?) optimistic view that we manage to lynch a (claimed) redcheck from (claimed) cop. Failing that, we've already lost: D3 is a 2-2 voterace if no-lynch on first two days.
Going from "D1 mylo" to "just get to D3 and we're set!" is just... I'm incredulous. I mean, even if you're just blindly enumerating the possibilities, going from N0 to D1, N1, etc... mylo isn't something that just slips your mind -- you KNOW you have TWO days to make ONE correct lynch. That's not a given. I'm not sure even an incredibly negligent townie would so flippantly irresponsible as to practically take it for granted.
His tone/progression is also problematic.- The plan was presented seriously, if maybe a bit tentatively. ("so... plan?"). I detect no joke, no troll, no facetiousness.
- The plan is clear followup from NU's #43 starting to talking about whether blues should claim / VTs should not fakeclaim.
NU's post (and meta) suggests he's a player who could be enticed with plans revolving around setup mechanics, so #45 could be working that angle
- When plan is attacked for bad math, #52 still bad math -- conscientious townie would have triple checked! -- casually sells bad math ("odds slightly favor us") while distancing from the plan at the same time ("I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring").
- So eager to circlejerk with NU and Koshi, except + Show Spoiler [tinfoil] +
- Gets all worked up N0 and early D1 about him giving a shit and others apparently not, trying way too hard to oversell his noise as activity before others even begin engaging
Hi ExO. I've been casually drafting since usually no one's around when I'm up.
But since you're here, Imma dump what I have so far, and let's talk.
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
But do you agree that (conscientious) town would not carelessly only post in best case scenarios?
Because that's the part that makes all the plan fluff at least anti-town, if not immediately obv scum.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Can you elaborate? I agree with NU's buddy-suspicion and see it possibly going further back to trying to put focus on plans. Help me see why it's not a buddy, and moreso not straight up painting them all green together with Koshi.
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I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74.
NU, can you explain your response to TW's plan?
+ Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote:
No, TW, bad plan.
Get the medic to claim D1.
D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia.
N1 - 1 c.town dies
D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia
GG in 2/3 scenarios.
Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =))))))
You still around?
I don't mean explain plan or math or scenarios. I mean explain your reaction to TW's plan, what you thought TW was doing, and your intent -- what were you doing with #46. Were you droll, troll, or actually seriously asking if TW still around so you can keep talking plan math? In light of TW's possible buddying later N0, do you agree that his earlier behavior also starts looking more insidious?
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On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote:
Just sat down and actually read TW's plan before, I kinda didn't pay much attention to it at first. It's actually dogshit assuming cop and doc are going to make it through to d2 with everythink hunky dory, so much to the point that I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously.
This is snark.
This might be half in jest
This exhaustively enumerates N0 thru up to D3 and lists what he sees as all three possible scenarios at D3.
That's too much effort for simply joking or trolling.
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+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 20:40 ExO_ wrote:
I was typing a post out and deleted it because I've come to the conclusion we're in a really shitty spot. But the conclusion I've come to is:
Cop should claim ASAP
This is the situation we are in:
mislynch and lose. In an ideal world, cop doesn't claim today and we move on to night, coming back the next day with cop claiming and giving information. However if Scum, or the Cop is on the chopping block today, they will almost certainly claim/fake claim cop. If nobody is claiming cop at EoD it almost certainly means we are lynching VT.
Our focus has to be getting through TODAY. We don't have the luxury of being able to reliably lynch 2 people. Our best bet of figuring out who is telling the truth, and who is lying is to get the discussion about it happening now. If nobody Counter Claims Cop, we're fine. If 2 people do claim cop, we want as much discussion time about it as possible to work it out.
This mean cop is essentially going to die at night, and that kinda sucks. But I think its our best bet to actually get out of day 1. I can't see scum just laying down and dying if they are on the chopping block so the Claim/Counter Claim scenario happens in our best case scenario. We should get it going NOW instead of later.
This post reads townie as fuck to me and I am just shy of throwing my full support behind this reasoning. The one thing that has me hesitant here is that I'm not sure we're at the point where we're definitely lynching today. No lynch / no consensus is still a clear possibility with 4/6 votes needed for IML.
But we're definitely in a very shitty place and I think the other concern is that N1 is 25% dead cop at random, or may even be a straight up bluesnipe -- so the cop may not have the luxury of time here.
I also believe I might have an inkling of what you typed out and deleted. Maybe we're thinking the same thing that we don't want to speak about yet.
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ExO what's your take on C-Ray? You said he looked sketchy earlier. Is it his wording ("I'd lynch ..." being quick to lynch at mylo) or the logic that you disagreed with or is there something else?
I was originally rather uncomfortable with how C-Ray was just tarring both TW and NU with the same brush without evaluating between the two, but #106 explained that to some extent for me, insofar that at least I see he's coming from the angle where they have to be scum together. I'm not completely convinced that both scum would come out together and try to dictate badplan to town, though, something doesn't quite click there when I try to find the scum motivation -- it seems unnecessarily YOLO when all it takes for scum to win is one mislynch.
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Around for another couple hours give or take, mostly IAW getting my youtube fix, will pop in sporadic to F5.
NA hurry and wake up already, so I can actually talk to you and not be forced to just leave messages.
Curse scum for killing the only EU.
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On December 08 2016 01:11 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Also, I may be digging too deep here, but TW’s progression on Koshi
[...]
he backed down on his statement of Koshi acting town when I questioned him. #72 TW states NK between TW, NU, Koshi. #74 NU asks TW why NU, TU, and Koshi are town #77 TW answers that NU, TW, Koshi town due to give-a-shitness #78 13 min later TW changes his mind, decides Koshi town for "the whole 'respect kill' thing" and had not intended to "lump him in with [NU+TW]" [for give-a-shitness]. You misread / misunderstood / misremember (misrepresent?)
I don't see him changing his mind about Koshi being town. He changed his mind about why Koshi is town for him -- but not in response to your questioning (#74) since his answers were both after. (#77,#78)
I did flag his behavior over the course that sequence of posts, though. #101:
In any case, those posts scream circlejerk to me. Why is he making such a hardsell of himself as townie based on just noisy activity on N0, without being under fire? Why such rush to form towncircle?
In hindsight, did TW prepare to paint himself green with Koshi's blood?
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On December 08 2016 01:11 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Meanwhile, cakepie, what are your thoughts on Ray’s follow up posts regarding his question to me and TW and his explanation of his first d1 post?
Already addressed.
On December 07 2016 22:02 cakepie wrote:I was originally rather uncomfortable with how C-Ray was just tarring both TW and NU with the same brush without evaluating between the two, but #106 explained that to some extent for me, insofar that at least I see he's coming from the angle where they have to be scum together. I'm not completely convinced that both scum would come out together and try to dictate badplan to town, though, something doesn't quite click there when I try to find the scum motivation -- it seems unnecessarily YOLO when all it takes for scum to win is one mislynch.
I see where he's coming from, I see why he makes a double case on the two of you, I understand his arguments. But I have difficulty buying into his case because it doesn't quite pass the test of "now why on earth would the scumteam do this".
I can't fault him for seeing your response as distancing, since #92 has you raising buddying suspicions while still reading TW "more town than maf". And you didn't raise suspicions of TW sooner, but only when asked -- you had a whole hour in which to do it before he asked. On the other hand, coming into the thread you're pretty much guaranteed to be focused on Ray's D1 entry for a bit since he fingers you. And it's not exactly like you had a very strong townread on TW, it was more of a purely activity-based townlean on TW given no one else seemed to be playing at the time. So his concern is not unjustified, but it might be a bit of a stretch to label #92 as distancing.
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I have some other comments/responses I’d like to make but my course is starting atm. I’ll share those when I’m home in about 8 hours.
Ugh. Hope you can stay up late a bit and I'll maybe be up before you go beddybye.
Meanwhile you owe me an answer for #104. Also more thorough re-eval on TW if you could, please, in light of new insights.
Take a look at ExO for me especially #112 just in case I've incorrectly tunneled him town.
And + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote:
If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote:
What do you think of [...] cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out?
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On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote:
cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today?
No.
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Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay.
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You've given me some insight into something that was of interest to me. Thanks.
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:
I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion.
But would you agree that it doesn't quite pass muster for both scum NU+TW to come out and try to dictate plan to town?
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:
ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread
Is this for #107 + #110 or is there something else that makes you say this?
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I have to call it a night here. Figure that most of you NA folks are going about your day with work, school and whatnot. Hopefully at least some of you are still up when I get back on tomorrow.
- H1 thanks for our brief exchange. Please work with the others while I'm asleep.
- TW explain yourself. There's quite a bit you have to answer for already so I don't see a need to give you any additional specific questions at this point.
- ExO you owe me an answer for #115. Can you please elaborate on C-Ray and other stuff in #98.
- C-Ray, what would NU+TW scumteam accomplish by having both scummers come into thread and push (bad/misleading) plan and stick out like sore thumbs touting their activity and shit-giving when town has been moderately quiet night 0? If it's not a NU+TW scumteam, then which of the two is scum? And who of the remaining players is their scumbuddy?
- NU you already have several questions from me. Remember to filter ExO for me please.
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EPT
